Western Caribbean disturabance 94L bringing heavy rains; Lupit's path uncertain

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:39 PM GMT on October 21, 2009

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A broad 1008 mb low pressure area has developed near 10N 84W, inland over Costa Rica. NHC designated this disturbance Invest 94L yesterday, but is no longer issuing model products for the disturbance. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed a broad circulation around the low, with top winds of about 30 - 35 mph over the extreme Southwestern Caribbean. Obviously, the center will have to move over water in order for significant development to occur, but recent satellite loops show that the low is pulling in an increasing amount of moisture from the Pacific, leading to heavy rains over Costa Rica and western Panama. Wind shear is low, about 5 - 10 knots, and there is deep layer of high moisture over the entire Western Caribbean, which both favor development if the center moves over water. Rainfall estimates from the Navy Research Lab indicate that 94L dumped up to three inches of rain over portions of Panama, Costa Rica, and Nicaragua over the past 24 hours.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Invest 94L.

The forecast for 94L
Wind shear is expected to remain in the low to moderate range, 5 - 15 knots, for the next five days in the Western Caribbean. Sea Surface temperatures are very warm, 29°C, and there is plenty of moisture through a deep layer of the atmosphere. The only major impediment to 94L becoming a tropical storm later this week would seem to be proximity to land. At present, only the GFS model develops 94L, but weeks it very weak. The GFS predicts the storm will take a north then northwesterly track across western Cuba early next week, then into the Gulf Coast of Florida later in the week. However, it is equally likely that 94L will stay bottled up in the Western Caribbean for the foreseeable future. I'll continue to give 94L a medium (30 - 50% chance) of eventually becoming a tropical depression over the next ten days. NHC is giving 94L a low (less than 30% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Friday, which is a good forecast. Given 94L's current state of disorganization and location over land, Saturday is the earliest we should expect it to organize into a tropical depression. NHC has not put the Hurricane Hunters on call to fly 94L Thursday or Friday.

Rick misses Baja, hits Mainland Mexico near Mazatlan
Tropical Storm Rick made landfall near 10am EDT in Mainland Mexico just north of Mazatlan. Top winds measured at the Matatlan airport during landfall were 39 mph, gusting to 61 mph. The primary threat from Rick will be heavy rains of up to six inches in the mountains near Mazatlan. Rick's remains should being at most one inch of rain to south-central Texas on Thursday.

Typhoon Lupit weakens and slows; path now uncertain
Typhoon Lupit, now a Category 1 storm with 90 mph winds, continues to have difficulty dealing with a slug of dry air it wrapped into its core two days ago. Microwave imagery showed that the typhoon was missing a portion of its northern eyewall this morning. However, recent Infrared satellite loops show that the eye has warmed and become more distinct, a sign of intensification. Also, the cloud tops of Lupit's eyewall have cooled in recent hours, signaling that they are more vigorous and reaching higher into the atmosphere. Lupit is in an environment favorable for re-intensification, with low wind shear of 5 - 10 knots and warm sea surface temperatures of 28 - 29°C. It would not be a surprise to see Lupit intensify into a major Category 3 typhoon again by Thursday, though the official forecast from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center is less aggressive, calling for a Category 2 storm by tomorrow. Even in its current weakened state, Lupit is a prodigious rain-maker, with rainfall rates exceeding one inch per hour near its core (Figure 2).

The future path of the typhoon is now highly uncertain, as steering currents are weakening and the storm is slowing down. A weakness in the ridge of high pressure steering Lupit west-southwest is developing, and several models (ECMWF, GFS) now predict recurvature of the typhoon before it reaches the Philippines. This optimistic scenario is counterbalanced by the very pessimistic forecasts of the UKMET and NOGAPS models, which take the typhoon inland over the northern portion of Luzon 1 - 2 days from now, and then stall the storm for 2 - 3 days. This would cause a major flooding disaster, as the soils are already saturated and the dams completely full from the 20+ inches of rain dumped by Super Typhoon Parma in early October. If Lupit stalls for several days over Luzon, it would dump another 20+ inches of rain, triggering massive flash flooding and life-threatening mudslides.

Storm chased Jim Edds is in northern Luzon to document Lupit's landfall, and has some interesting photos of the preparations the residents are taking.


Figure 2. Rainfall rates observed by a polar-orbiting microwave satellite at at 10:24 UTC Wednesday 10/21/09. Lupit is expected to dump rains in excess of one inch per hour (red and pink colors) along its path. Up to 12 inches of rain in a 24-hour period are expected from the typhoon. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey..

I'll have an update Thursday morning.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting TampaSpin:


I don't care for acuuweather but, that is very possible.....the NW jog would be because of a building high.
Tampa, X94L is firing up convection on the Epac side! Does this mean any thing, such as taking away from the Atlantic?
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Quoting ElConando:
Tampa I ate a taco earlier and my bowels hit the panic button.


OUCH.....hope you found some paper.....ROFLMAO
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Tampa I ate a taco earlier and my bowels hit the panic button.
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Quoting TampaSpin:


Dam cold if the model holds true....thats a long ways out for a lot of confidence in it tho....but, the stuff on land is much better to predict than over water.


I've seen high 40's low 50's in Fort Lauderdale as a high this time of the year. I remember when they had the little weather forecast on the elevator and I laughed. wasn't laughing when it happened.
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Quoting stormsurge39:
Ok, I just saw on the Accuweather site, where they have it going towards central Cuba and then shoot back to the NW. When and if it developes is when will really know!


I don't care for acuuweather but, that is very possible.....the NW jog would be because of a building high.
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Quoting xcool:





Got all of them in one shot. A real weather-Monet!
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Quoting njdevil:


dunno. maybe there's someone here that can tell you, but there's zero guidance as of now. the old models were putting it into central america to die, and one that was shooting it north, parking it and jogging a little east, than back north to northwest by Cuba. but those probably aren't valid anymore and were never really valid to begin with.
Ok, I just saw on the Accuweather site, where they have it going towards central Cuba and then shoot back to the NW. When and if it developes is when will really know!
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Alright, off to bed.

Only possible valid reason that I can see for deactivation is shear and/or land interaction. But that isn't enough, imo.

If anything, between this am and tonight, probability has gone up. JMO.
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Quoting eddye:
10 days out how cold for se florida


Dam cold if the model holds true....thats a long ways out for a lot of confidence in it tho....but, the stuff on land is much better to predict than over water.
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880. eddye
10 days out how cold for se florida
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Quoting stormsurge39:
Once it "developes", is the track N and then NE or N and then NW or both blended?


dunno. maybe there's someone here that can tell you, but there's zero guidance as of now. the old models were putting it into central america to die, and one that was shooting it north, parking it and jogging a little east, than back north to northwest by Cuba. but those probably aren't valid anymore and were never really valid to begin with.
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878. amd
ot: phils win the nlcs.

Back to weather, just checked the updated El Nino statistics, and it continues to confirm my suspicions that Hawaii may continue to have to watch for possible hurricanes until at least the end of November.

Nino 4 region: 1.2 C
Nino 3.4 region: 0.9 C
Nino 3 region: 0.7 C
Nino 1 2 region: 0.0C

Nino 4 and Nino 3.4 regions represent the central pacific and areas east of 160 West near the equator.

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Quoting WaterWitch11:


Hi Tampa,

Is there any concern for the right turn that Neki seems to be taking?


Cooler waters should slow streghtening.....
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Quoting CaribBoy:
ex-93L is firing decent convection tonight


Good obs. Wasn't paying attention. But, shear remains insane out there.
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ex-93L is firing decent convection tonight
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Quoting TampaSpin:
WOW what a dip in the JET Stream 10 days out....COLD COLD south.....and severe weather.



Hi Tampa,

Is there any concern for the right turn that Neki seems to be taking?
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Quoting njdevil:


once it gets past Honduras, it gets into open warm water. might not have much time depending on how fast it moves, but if it gets in there, it should develop into *something*.
Once it "developes", is the track N and then NE or N and then NW or both blended?
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872. xcool



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Quoting stormsurge39:
How is it going to form if it keeps moving over land like that?


once it gets past Honduras, it gets into open warm water. might not have much time depending on how fast it moves, but if it gets in there, it should develop into *something*.
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Quoting TampaSpin:
WOW what a dip in the JET Stream 10 days out....COLD COLD south.....and severe weather.



lol, not again, I swear, every time I go to Florida or the Caribbean, this happens.

oh well, at least we're going East this time. had a bad dip when we went in January last year. awful conditions for 3 or 4 days once we got past Jamaica. windy, 10-15 seas, and freaking COLD. (alright, cold by local standards) our sea day between Cayman and Cozumel, I didn't go outside all day, you needed a jacket and a hoodie.

then it happened again in Orlando, that day when it was in the low 30's in the morning.

this annoys me more than the potential tropical storm. because this most likely WILL happen and will most likely annoy me.
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The Area near the Bahamas is ULL feature from what I can tell.
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Quoting winter123:


basically. i have no doubt this would be a TS right now if central america was not there.
How is it going to form if it keeps moving over land like that?
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Quoting leelee75k:
what's going on with the area of weather over the Bahamas? Is there any possibility of anything with that area?


Looks like frontal development in association with the draped old frontal boundary across the southeast/caribbean. Shoot scoot out to the NE.
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Quoting xcool:
Grothar i try ;)


You do quite well.
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Quoting stormsurge39:
Is X94L split in 1/2 over land?


basically. i have no doubt this would be a TS right now if central america was not there.
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624. stormpetrol 12:42 AM GMT on October 22, 2009
possible COC 12.5N/83
repost, just where i have the coc.
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Sorry, but still curious.

As follow up to models close to land, would prefer if they initialized a little on the sea side.

With systems like this, a L can form anywhere. Start a model off right near land and it will dissipate it 90% of the time if not more, especially with westerly movement built in.

And, tonight's QS shows a more defined center since inception of the invest.

Again, just curious as to what data resulted in the deactivation. Still haven't received an "OK, that makes sense" response.

But, good, valid responses. ;)
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Is X94L split in 1/2 over land?
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Quoting leelee75k:
what's going on with the area of weather over the Bahamas? Is there any possibility of anything with that area?


Nothing to worry about in terms of landfall. Even if, it's only going E. No time to be of major harm to anyone on land.
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859. xcool
Grothar i try ;)
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Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
WOW what a dip in the JET Stream 10 days out....COLD COLD south.....and severe weather.

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Quoting leelee75k:
what's going on with the area of weather over the Bahamas? Is there any possibility of anything with that area?
The TPC has not mentioned it yet, but it is growing fast.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 22712
855. xcool
:0

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what's going on with the area of weather over the Bahamas? Is there any possibility of anything with that area?
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Quoting xcool:


OOOOOH! Another great image xcool. Can you get one for the blob near the Bahamas? I can not seem to get a good view of it from the other sites. Really would appreciate it.
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851. IKE
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
Quoting hurricane23:


Lack of organization and no model support.


So?? Past storms have shown us that storms can form without model support. Lets remember that models are not going to handle the WC disturbance well until a dominant low forms. So the drops will continue to go on until or IF a new closed low forms.
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Quoting foggymyst:
-Thanks Tampa.


Watch the Boat.......LOL
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Quoting tacoman:
OK IM GOING TO GET SOME SHUT EYE.. ILL HAVE NEW INFO IN THE MORNING..YOU GUYS KNOW WHAT I SAID AND i STAND BY WHAT I SAID SO WHEN IT HAPPENS I DONT WANT ANYONE TO TAKE CREDIT FOR THIS INFO I DIVULGED TONIGHT...ALL I CAN SAY IS S FLA AND THE BAHAMAS KEEP ON YOUR TOES.. THIS IS GOING TO BE A DANGEROUS SITUATION FOR YOU GUYS BY WEDNESDAY OR THURS...THE SKY IS THE LIMIT FOR IDA...Tacoman
The way Tacoman talks in a frantic way and seems to contradict his statements every day looks like classic..... STORMNO statements!!LOL
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-Thanks Tampa.
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Quoting hurricane23:


Lack of organization and no model support.


Understand the model support, but so close to land is virtually impossible for a model.
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845. XL
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Very comforting. LOL


I have to admit that I did go out and stock up on water today before there is a rush. I did the same last year when Paloma was brewing.
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844. xcool
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Very comforting. LOL


Glad you found it comforting...
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Quoting TampaSpin:


There was hardly any Vorticity at 850mb this morning......


Yeah, but overall. Really wasn't deactivated until tonight.
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Quoting pcbdragon:
any thoughts on the Copenhagen Treaty?


It is very unlikely that anything will come of it. At this point it is dependent on the economic difficulties of the less developed nations. The Dutch representative leading the conference has been trying to establish financial responsibilty between the more developed nations and the lesser-developed nations. It is unlikely the U.S. would even endorse such a treay at this time, unless their is a major shift in congressional approval. Since China is a big player in this, it is also unlikely to see concessions from any of the leading nations, since all have experienced such financial disasters. I would say not treaty at this time.
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Quoting Seastep:
I am really curious as to what data actually led to deactivating 94L.


Lack of organization and no model support.
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Quoting Seastep:
I am really curious as to what data actually led to deactivating 94L.


There was hardly any Vorticity at 850mb this morning......
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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