Western Caribbean disturabance 94L bringing heavy rains; Lupit's path uncertain

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:39 PM GMT on October 21, 2009

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A broad 1008 mb low pressure area has developed near 10N 84W, inland over Costa Rica. NHC designated this disturbance Invest 94L yesterday, but is no longer issuing model products for the disturbance. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed a broad circulation around the low, with top winds of about 30 - 35 mph over the extreme Southwestern Caribbean. Obviously, the center will have to move over water in order for significant development to occur, but recent satellite loops show that the low is pulling in an increasing amount of moisture from the Pacific, leading to heavy rains over Costa Rica and western Panama. Wind shear is low, about 5 - 10 knots, and there is deep layer of high moisture over the entire Western Caribbean, which both favor development if the center moves over water. Rainfall estimates from the Navy Research Lab indicate that 94L dumped up to three inches of rain over portions of Panama, Costa Rica, and Nicaragua over the past 24 hours.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Invest 94L.

The forecast for 94L
Wind shear is expected to remain in the low to moderate range, 5 - 15 knots, for the next five days in the Western Caribbean. Sea Surface temperatures are very warm, 29°C, and there is plenty of moisture through a deep layer of the atmosphere. The only major impediment to 94L becoming a tropical storm later this week would seem to be proximity to land. At present, only the GFS model develops 94L, but weeks it very weak. The GFS predicts the storm will take a north then northwesterly track across western Cuba early next week, then into the Gulf Coast of Florida later in the week. However, it is equally likely that 94L will stay bottled up in the Western Caribbean for the foreseeable future. I'll continue to give 94L a medium (30 - 50% chance) of eventually becoming a tropical depression over the next ten days. NHC is giving 94L a low (less than 30% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Friday, which is a good forecast. Given 94L's current state of disorganization and location over land, Saturday is the earliest we should expect it to organize into a tropical depression. NHC has not put the Hurricane Hunters on call to fly 94L Thursday or Friday.

Rick misses Baja, hits Mainland Mexico near Mazatlan
Tropical Storm Rick made landfall near 10am EDT in Mainland Mexico just north of Mazatlan. Top winds measured at the Matatlan airport during landfall were 39 mph, gusting to 61 mph. The primary threat from Rick will be heavy rains of up to six inches in the mountains near Mazatlan. Rick's remains should being at most one inch of rain to south-central Texas on Thursday.

Typhoon Lupit weakens and slows; path now uncertain
Typhoon Lupit, now a Category 1 storm with 90 mph winds, continues to have difficulty dealing with a slug of dry air it wrapped into its core two days ago. Microwave imagery showed that the typhoon was missing a portion of its northern eyewall this morning. However, recent Infrared satellite loops show that the eye has warmed and become more distinct, a sign of intensification. Also, the cloud tops of Lupit's eyewall have cooled in recent hours, signaling that they are more vigorous and reaching higher into the atmosphere. Lupit is in an environment favorable for re-intensification, with low wind shear of 5 - 10 knots and warm sea surface temperatures of 28 - 29°C. It would not be a surprise to see Lupit intensify into a major Category 3 typhoon again by Thursday, though the official forecast from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center is less aggressive, calling for a Category 2 storm by tomorrow. Even in its current weakened state, Lupit is a prodigious rain-maker, with rainfall rates exceeding one inch per hour near its core (Figure 2).

The future path of the typhoon is now highly uncertain, as steering currents are weakening and the storm is slowing down. A weakness in the ridge of high pressure steering Lupit west-southwest is developing, and several models (ECMWF, GFS) now predict recurvature of the typhoon before it reaches the Philippines. This optimistic scenario is counterbalanced by the very pessimistic forecasts of the UKMET and NOGAPS models, which take the typhoon inland over the northern portion of Luzon 1 - 2 days from now, and then stall the storm for 2 - 3 days. This would cause a major flooding disaster, as the soils are already saturated and the dams completely full from the 20+ inches of rain dumped by Super Typhoon Parma in early October. If Lupit stalls for several days over Luzon, it would dump another 20+ inches of rain, triggering massive flash flooding and life-threatening mudslides.

Storm chased Jim Edds is in northern Luzon to document Lupit's landfall, and has some interesting photos of the preparations the residents are taking.


Figure 2. Rainfall rates observed by a polar-orbiting microwave satellite at at 10:24 UTC Wednesday 10/21/09. Lupit is expected to dump rains in excess of one inch per hour (red and pink colors) along its path. Up to 12 inches of rain in a 24-hour period are expected from the typhoon. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey..

I'll have an update Thursday morning.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting IKE:


On this blog, I'm almost afraid to for fear of more personal WU mail telling me to shut-up.

I don't see much difference either, but the vorticity in the eastern Pacific is stronger than it was last night.




Good morning.
Don't be afraid to voice your opinion. WU mail can be deleted just like any other e-mail.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8278
938. IKE
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
I don't see any difference. If there is could you please point it out ?


On this blog, I'm almost afraid to for fear of more personal WU mail telling me to shut-up.

I don't see much difference either, but the vorticity in the eastern Pacific is stronger than it was last night.


Quoting mikatnight:
Mornin Ike...



Good morning.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Where are you ?


Lantana, FL - just south of Lake Worth, FL "Where the tropics begin".
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Mornin Ike...

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Quoting IKE:
850mb vorticity at 0600UTC...




850mb vorticity at 0900UTC...

I don't see any difference. If there is could you please point it out ?
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8278
Quoting mikatnight:
Morning stormwatcher, guess it's old news here but I just noticed it this morning. Looks like our rain chances are going up...
Where are you ?
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8278
933. IKE
850mb vorticity at 0600UTC...




850mb vorticity at 0900UTC...

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Morning stormwatcher, guess it's old news here but I just noticed it this morning. Looks like our rain chances are going up...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
This product is updated at approximately 2 AM, 8 AM, 2 PM, and 8 PM EDT from June 1 to November 30. Special outlooks may be issued as conditions warrant.


2. CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM EASTERN CUBA NORTHEASTWARD
THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND THE REMNANTS OF A COLD
FRONT. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE THE
SYSTEM DRIFTS WESTWARD
. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
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Hello to you too.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8278
Well, hello...

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928. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Philippines Atmospherical Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration

Typhoon "RAMIL" has accelerated as it continues to move closer to Northern Luzon.

Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #19
===============================
At 5:00 PM PhST, Typhoon Ramil (Lupit) located at 18.4ºN 123.4ºE or 180 kms east of Aparri, Cagayan has 10 minute sustained winds of 160 km/h (85 kts) with gustiness up to 195 km/h (105 kts).

Signal Warnings
================

Signal Warning #3 (100-185 km/h winds)

Luzon Region
------------
1.Batanes Group
2.Cagayan
3.Calayan Island
4.Babuyan Islands
5.Apayao
6.Ilocos Norte

Signal Warning #2 (60-100 km/h winds)

Luzon Region
-----------
1.Kalinga
2.Isabela
3.Ilocos Sur
4.Abra
5.Mt. Province
6.Ifugao
7.Benguet
8.La Union
9.Nueva Vizcaya
10.Quirino
11.Aurora

Signal Warning #1 (30-60 km/h winds)

Luzon Region
------------
1.Pangasinan
2.Tarlac
3.Nueva Ecija
4.Zambales
5.Pampanga
6.Bulacan
7.Northern Quezon
8.Polillo Islands

Additional Information
======================
Residents in low-lying areas and near mountain slopes under signals #3, #2 and #1 are advised to take all the necessary precautionary measures against possible flashfloods and landslides.

Those living along the coast in areas under signal #2 and #3 are advised to be on alert against storm surge and big waves generated by the typhoon.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 p.m. today.
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Quoting ackee:
94L will not develop
Good morning to you too. It's too early for this and also too early for any kind of information to assess this. I will wait for Weather 456 or StormW analysis ,thanks.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8278
926. ackee
94L will not develop
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Quoting MisterJohnny:
Good Morning Everyone!
Good morning. I don't know if there is any other "everyone" on right now.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8278
Good Morning Everyone!
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Quoting ElConando:
what does SWMBO mean? I know its your wife but is it an acronym or something?

From Wikipedia:
SWMBO is an acronym for "She Who Must Be Obeyed" (referring to a wife or girlfriend).
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goodnight fellow blogsters!
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8201
Quoting btwntx08:

indeed just went outside and is pretty windy out there


cool, well:
Lafayette, Purdue University Airport
Lat: 40.43 Lon: -86.93 Elev: 623
Last Update on Oct 22, 1:54 am EDT

Fair

55 °F
(13 °C)
Humidity: 67 %
Wind Speed: Calm
Barometer: 30.01" (1016.0 mb)
Dewpoint: 44 °F (7 °C)
Visibility: 10.00 mi.
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8201
Quoting btwntx08:
Brownsville Public Library - Central Blvd., Brownsville, Texas (PWS)
Updated: 1 sec ago
79.6 °F
Clear
Humidity: 67%
Dew Point: 68 °F
Wind: 11.0 mphfrom the South
Wind Gust: 26.0 mph
Pressure: 29.64 in (Falling)
Heat Index: 82 °F
Visibility: 10.0 miles

look at the wind and pressure here


youre about to get rick-rolled!
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8201
Quoting JLPR:
looks interesting no?
xD

considering the amount of wind shear its amazing this pesky low looks like this


hmm, definitely could bear some watching, but isnt it supposed to move east?

howdy JLPR

Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8201
what does SWMBO mean? I know its your wife but is it an acronym or something?
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913. JLPR
looks interesting no?
xD

considering the amount of wind shear its amazing this pesky low looks like this
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aloha
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8201
amazing.. some moisture/high clouds from Rick are reaching the Northeast US. (where i am)
Member Since: July 29, 2006 Posts: 28 Comments: 1777
Quoting Grothar:


Not a funny situation. Glad you are on the mend. Hope she gets better soon.


Me to... hard to whine, snivel, and ask for things...when she is in bed sicker :(

I assume we will both be a lot better by Friday.. and if you ever get this.. I highly recommend Tamiflu... its worth its weight in gold.

Back to the weather.... and even that sucks up here right now.

Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
Quoting Orcasystems:


I don't have it as bad as SWMBO... she got a bad case, mine is mild compared to hers. Tamiflu and Tylenol .... meal of the day.

I don't even want to touch Comment #905 for so many different reasons.

Victoria has declared a pandemic and started their Pandemic Protocol in the Health Units. Funny timing... same time SWMBO called in sick, they were getting ready to call her in for it. Tuesday was a Great 30th anniversary :(




Not a funny situation. Glad you are on the mend. Hope she gets better soon.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25421
Quoting TampaSpin:


Again thanks.....i really don't spend that much time on the site honestly.....no more than 1 hour a day on average...i have alot of other things i do....my plate if very full dealing with all the agents and things that drive me crazy.


yeah, I just checked that out and was impressed. I think I'll bookmark that in case I have to make some decisions when I'm on the road. it's good one-stop shopping and minus the frenzy that will be whipped up here the second something does happen, if it does.
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Quoting Grothar:


How are you all feeling Orca. Some of us were worried.


I don't have it as bad as SWMBO... she got a bad case, mine is mild compared to hers. Tamiflu and Tylenol .... meal of the day.

I don't even want to touch Comment #905 for so many different reasons.

Victoria has declared a pandemic and started their Pandemic Protocol in the Health Units. Funny timing... same time SWMBO called in sick, they were getting ready to call her in for it. Tuesday was a Great 30th anniversary :(


Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
906. xcool
mm
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Quoting Orcasystems:



Seismic Monitor

AOI

AOI
Humor in Comments


Active little world we all share, eh Orca? Ring of fire really that busy?
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25421
Quoting Orcasystems:



Seismic Monitor

AOI

AOI
Humor in Comments


How are you all feeling Orca. Some of us were worried.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25421
Quoting stormsurge39:
Taco are you AKA Stormno by chance? Hmm


Yes, tacoman=stormno.
Member Since: May 18, 2007 Posts: 289 Comments: 1639
Quoting Grothar:


Don't want to be a copy-cat, but your blog is very interesting. I don't know how you would find the time to do all of that, even as a hobby. I know I couldn't or wouldn't attempt it, even as a full time job.


Again thanks.....i really don't spend that much time on the site honestly.....no more than 1 hour a day on average...i have alot of other things i do....my plate if very full dealing with all the agents and things that drive me crazy.
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Seismic Monitor

AOI

AOI

Humor in Comments
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
Quoting njdevil:
meh, inaccuweather says 73 in fort lauderdale on 10/31. maybe it won't be that bad. they're accounting for something that day.

but they always change these things like 3 days in advance, after you've left and already packed


The big cold front would not be there yet...the front would be there about 11/3-11/...IMO
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meh, inaccuweather says 73 in fort lauderdale on 10/31. maybe it won't be that bad. they're accounting for something that day.

but they always change these things like 3 days in advance, after you've left and already packed
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Quoting TampaSpin:


Its amazing ....i have had over 60,000 hits without much comments those hits are true visits not just someone in someones blog hitting the refresh button making phony hits every second.....LOL.......glad you enjoy it and anything you think of that i can add let me know......just a hobby that i enjoy. Again thanks.


Don't want to be a copy-cat, but your blog is very interesting. I don't know how you would find the time to do all of that, even as a hobby. I know I couldn't or wouldn't attempt it, even as a full time job.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25421
Quoting amd:
ot: phils win the nlcs.

Back to weather, just checked the updated El Nino statistics, and it continues to confirm my suspicions that Hawaii may continue to have to watch for possible hurricanes until at least the end of November.

Nino 4 region: 1.2 C
Nino 3.4 region: 0.9 C
Nino 3 region: 0.7 C
Nino 1 2 region: 0.0C

Nino 4 and Nino 3.4

This is more for me but I thought I'd post it
From Dr. Lyons:
The reason is the Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough (called TUTT for short) rules the high levels of our weather atmosphere there and creates winds typically too fast for development of a hurricane and too fast for an approaching hurricane from the east to remain a hurricane. That is why quite a few remnant tropical circulations go by south, north, or occasionally through the islands, but rarely does a tropical storm or hurricane reaches them.

But paradise is not always paradise. Hawaii is vulnerable when a strong hurricane develops to the southwest, then moves north when the TUTT is displaced slightly north of its normal location. This is by far most common in El Nino years. The last time this happened was in 1992 when CAT 4 Hurricane Iniki struck Kauai, in 1982 when Hurricane Iwa nearly hit Kauai, and back in 1957 when Hurricane Nina came close to Kauai. All of these were El Nino years
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Quoting 2ifbyC:


Annoys me more... I live down here and hate the cold!


yeah, but you live down there, so you get the good days too. I'm a magnet for this stuff. whenever I head down to Florida, I just assume it'll happen so I really enjoy the good days and don't get too ticked off when it does happen.

but we're meeting up with some people down there on the 30th and the 31st and they assume
they're going to be hanging out at the pool all day. if this forecast holds, good luck with that. unless the pool is heated and you never get out.

for whatever reason, it always feels colder down there than it does up here. that 30 something morning in Orlando, I thought I was going to die. up here, I could go out in a windbreaker and be okay.
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894. xcool


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Quoting WaterWitch11:
TampaSpin,

Nice to see that you have all the info that you have on your blog. There are so many things you have that I look at everyday. It's all connected! Though I haven't look at the webcams in Alaska in a while, probably should seeing how Alaska, I feel should have a really strong earthquake soon. I saw someone post about Hawaii having storms until late November, what do you think? I can't remember when Hawaii had a storm so close as Neki, but memory fails me at times. Child crying got to go.


Its amazing ....i have had over 60,000 hits without much comments those hits are true visits not just someone in someones blog hitting the refresh button making phony hits every second.....LOL.......glad you enjoy it and anything you think of that i can add let me know......just a hobby that i enjoy. Again thanks.
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Quoting njdevil:


this annoys me


Annoys me more... I live down here and hate the cold!
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TampaSpin,

Nice to see that you have all the info that you have on your blog. There are so many things you have that I look at everyday. It's all connected! Though I haven't look at the webcams in Alaska in a while, probably should seeing how Alaska, I feel should have a really strong earthquake soon. I saw someone post about Hawaii having storms until late November, what do you think? I can't remember when Hawaii had a storm so close as Neki, but memory fails me at times. Child crying got to go.
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Quoting TampaSpin:


OUCH.....hope you found some paper.....ROFLMAO


LOL yeah, come to think of hit I did put a lot of Tabasco sauce as well, that might have contributed.

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Quoting TampaSpin:


I don't care for acuuweather but, that is very possible.....the NW jog would be because of a building high.
Tampa, X94L is firing up convection on the Epac side! Does this mean any thing, such as taking away from the Atlantic?
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.