Western Caribbean disturabance 94L bringing heavy rains; Lupit's path uncertain

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:39 PM GMT on October 21, 2009

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A broad 1008 mb low pressure area has developed near 10N 84W, inland over Costa Rica. NHC designated this disturbance Invest 94L yesterday, but is no longer issuing model products for the disturbance. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed a broad circulation around the low, with top winds of about 30 - 35 mph over the extreme Southwestern Caribbean. Obviously, the center will have to move over water in order for significant development to occur, but recent satellite loops show that the low is pulling in an increasing amount of moisture from the Pacific, leading to heavy rains over Costa Rica and western Panama. Wind shear is low, about 5 - 10 knots, and there is deep layer of high moisture over the entire Western Caribbean, which both favor development if the center moves over water. Rainfall estimates from the Navy Research Lab indicate that 94L dumped up to three inches of rain over portions of Panama, Costa Rica, and Nicaragua over the past 24 hours.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Invest 94L.

The forecast for 94L
Wind shear is expected to remain in the low to moderate range, 5 - 15 knots, for the next five days in the Western Caribbean. Sea Surface temperatures are very warm, 29°C, and there is plenty of moisture through a deep layer of the atmosphere. The only major impediment to 94L becoming a tropical storm later this week would seem to be proximity to land. At present, only the GFS model develops 94L, but weeks it very weak. The GFS predicts the storm will take a north then northwesterly track across western Cuba early next week, then into the Gulf Coast of Florida later in the week. However, it is equally likely that 94L will stay bottled up in the Western Caribbean for the foreseeable future. I'll continue to give 94L a medium (30 - 50% chance) of eventually becoming a tropical depression over the next ten days. NHC is giving 94L a low (less than 30% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Friday, which is a good forecast. Given 94L's current state of disorganization and location over land, Saturday is the earliest we should expect it to organize into a tropical depression. NHC has not put the Hurricane Hunters on call to fly 94L Thursday or Friday.

Rick misses Baja, hits Mainland Mexico near Mazatlan
Tropical Storm Rick made landfall near 10am EDT in Mainland Mexico just north of Mazatlan. Top winds measured at the Matatlan airport during landfall were 39 mph, gusting to 61 mph. The primary threat from Rick will be heavy rains of up to six inches in the mountains near Mazatlan. Rick's remains should being at most one inch of rain to south-central Texas on Thursday.

Typhoon Lupit weakens and slows; path now uncertain
Typhoon Lupit, now a Category 1 storm with 90 mph winds, continues to have difficulty dealing with a slug of dry air it wrapped into its core two days ago. Microwave imagery showed that the typhoon was missing a portion of its northern eyewall this morning. However, recent Infrared satellite loops show that the eye has warmed and become more distinct, a sign of intensification. Also, the cloud tops of Lupit's eyewall have cooled in recent hours, signaling that they are more vigorous and reaching higher into the atmosphere. Lupit is in an environment favorable for re-intensification, with low wind shear of 5 - 10 knots and warm sea surface temperatures of 28 - 29°C. It would not be a surprise to see Lupit intensify into a major Category 3 typhoon again by Thursday, though the official forecast from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center is less aggressive, calling for a Category 2 storm by tomorrow. Even in its current weakened state, Lupit is a prodigious rain-maker, with rainfall rates exceeding one inch per hour near its core (Figure 2).

The future path of the typhoon is now highly uncertain, as steering currents are weakening and the storm is slowing down. A weakness in the ridge of high pressure steering Lupit west-southwest is developing, and several models (ECMWF, GFS) now predict recurvature of the typhoon before it reaches the Philippines. This optimistic scenario is counterbalanced by the very pessimistic forecasts of the UKMET and NOGAPS models, which take the typhoon inland over the northern portion of Luzon 1 - 2 days from now, and then stall the storm for 2 - 3 days. This would cause a major flooding disaster, as the soils are already saturated and the dams completely full from the 20+ inches of rain dumped by Super Typhoon Parma in early October. If Lupit stalls for several days over Luzon, it would dump another 20+ inches of rain, triggering massive flash flooding and life-threatening mudslides.

Storm chased Jim Edds is in northern Luzon to document Lupit's landfall, and has some interesting photos of the preparations the residents are taking.


Figure 2. Rainfall rates observed by a polar-orbiting microwave satellite at at 10:24 UTC Wednesday 10/21/09. Lupit is expected to dump rains in excess of one inch per hour (red and pink colors) along its path. Up to 12 inches of rain in a 24-hour period are expected from the typhoon. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey..

I'll have an update Thursday morning.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Floodman:


Howdy, Stormpetrol...how's things?


No bad, but real nasty weather here in Grand Cayman, looks like Heaven & earth coming together.
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 7669
Hey FLOOD!!!
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Quoting Floodman:


Howdy, Stormpetrol...how's things?

Dare I answer for him ? WET!
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8268
Quoting Floodman:


Dare I say it? "Flopcasters"?


LMAO
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Tampa, that is what you have been saying for a couple days that a new low would form south of Jamaica.


Hey, why did everyone jump on me two nights ago when I said the new low would be forming NE of the convection. Drak and Weather456 totally disagreed with me. I thought they were my buds. I felt so badly, I never posted anything but graphs after that. Boo Hoo, poor me.
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Quoting stormpetrol:

Hi Flood, LMAO!!


Howdy, Stormpetrol...how's things?

Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
with the 12z GFS coming out.. the system being talked about that is suppose to develop Friday night into Saturday is now within the 72hr outlook that alot of Mets look up to. By 72hrs..there is a low south of Jamaica and also a low in the central Bahamas with a upper low in between. The uppper low will cause shear but also divergance in the carribean causing the low to increase in T-Storm activity "but" will have a negative affect in making anything with that low south of Jamaica to really get going. Its too early to tell if there will be a development there. Still needs other model support and also there will probably be dry air from the NW carribean coming in on its western flank.
All in All.. right now we will have 2 disturbances...maybe a TD in the central bahamas and maybe 1 by Saturday south of Jamaica... 40% chance on both.. the chances will increase or decrease in time,depending on the evolution of the systems and the upper level low.
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Quoting Floodman:


Dare I say it? "Flopcasters"?

Hi Flood, LMAO!!
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 7669
Heading out for lunch but it's all a wait and see; conditions are "currently" pretty hostile outside of the small box. Need to see how sheer pans out over the next several days IMHO.
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Quoting TampaSpin:
This blog has more floppers. So many flop like a fish on a bank trying to get back into the Water!


Dare I say it? "Flopcasters"?
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922

strong winds around 11/81 with some hint of a partial circulation at those coordinates, jmo of course.
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 7669
Tampa, that is what you have been saying for a couple days that a new low would form south of Jamaica.
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Quoting TampaSpin:


Now now Taco.....give the man a break..he was up late last nite as i was....it is hard to see which one is the stronger and it is just an opinion.....as Scott said and i have posted 94L is dead.....a new low will form and will have a new name.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8268
I think the mid level "spin" around 12/81 drifting eastward might be the one to watch out for by weekend, jmo.
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Gotta go...NO FIGHTING KIDS! Scottsvb keep them honest bro.....keep up the good work.

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Quoting weathermanwannabe:


Good Point......Also note that the sinking plume of very dry air behind the front is still pushing south from Florida into the Caribbean.....If that dry air is able to make it all the way down across the Bahamas and South of Cuba, it will definately put a damper on the current moist enviornment in these regions. It will be tough going for both areas with high sheer and dry air moving in.


That should be pulling out soon......i believe.
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Quoting scottsvb:


thats all in the midlevels.. 94L is gone .. only 2 areas to watch are near Cuba-Bahamas and south of Jamaica going into the weekend. Peeps need to forget about 94L.. it lived for 6 hrs


Good Point......Also note that the sinking plume of very dry air behind the front is still pushing south from Florida into the Caribbean.....If that dry air is able to make it all the way down across the Bahamas and South of Cuba, it will definately put a damper on the current moist enviornment in these regions. It will be tough going for both areas with high sheer and dry air moving in.
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Quoting tacoman:
reed has had a lack of sleep his eyes may be playing tricks on him...you right tampa a very more pronounced circulation in the pacific..tacoman


Now now Taco.....give the man a break..he was up late last nite as i was....it is hard to see which one is the stronger and it is just an opinion.....as Scott said and i have posted 94L is dead.....a new low will form and will have a new name.
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Quoting scottsvb:


thats all in the midlevels.. 94L is gone .. only 2 areas to watch are near Cuba-Bahamas and south of Jamaica going into the weekend. Peeps need to forget about 94L.. it lived for 6 hrs


Uh, I didn't say 94L, I said a spin, not even a low. I know 94L is gone..
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Quoting ElConando:


That sucks man. Virus? I had a spyware attack a few days ago. Luckily it was a weak one, I cut off the internet and ran a scan and it found nothing. Ran an ad-aware deep scan and it found nothing. Got lucky I guess.

A tip. If a spy ware attack occurs on your computer cut off the internet before dealing with any pop ups the spyware has put on your screen.


Download and run Malwarebytes; it will find any remains of the software that caused the problem
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
Shear starts to drop north of the AOI some in 3 days


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Quoting TampaSpin:


One thing for sure if you don't speak up, you can't be wrong...When i miss a forecast..i always state it on my blog update if i blow a forecast.


yeah, and I respect that, I have found that it is sometimes better to kinda "sit back and enjoy the ride" this year haha
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Quoting reedzone:


No, IN MY OPINION, I see a more defined spin in the Western Carribean, opinion wise.


thats all in the midlevels.. 94L is gone .. only 2 areas to watch are near Cuba-Bahamas and south of Jamaica going into the weekend. Peeps need to forget about 94L.. it lived for 6 hrs
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Quoting AwakeInMaryland:

Four tickets? Doc Masters, his wife, a beautiful intern, and you.
Unless you're spoken for. Then the HR person.


haha sounds good to me ;)
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Quoting reedzone:


No, IN MY OPINION, I see a more defined spin in the Western Carribean, opinion wise.


I can except that.......but i don't agree with it.
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Quoting TampaSpin:


I hope you meant to say more eveident in the Pacific! As that is where the strongest spin is located.


No, IN MY OPINION, I see a more defined spin in the Western Carribean, opinion wise.
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Quoting Patrap:


Just wu-mail the Doc ,"jeffmasters"..all one word.
He may reply .

Four tickets? Doc Masters, his wife, a beautiful intern, and you.
Unless you're spoken for. Then the HR person.
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Quoting reedzone:


You can clearly see the spins on each sides, more evident on in the Western Carribean.


I hope you meant to say more eveident in the Pacific! As that is where the strongest spin is located.
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Quoting tornadodude:


There is a reason I dont voice my opinion about tropical entities very often haha


One thing for sure if you don't speak up, you can't be wrong...When i miss a forecast..i always state it on my blog update if i blow a forecast.
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Quoting P451:


You can clearly see the spins on each sides, more evident on in the Western Carribean.
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Good Morning......94L appears to be boxed in between proximity to land and high sheer just to it's North. A very narrow and small window for possible TD development in the current low sheer pocket but any significant gain in latitude, unless the sheer drops, would be fatal right now.
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Quoting TampaSpin:
This blog has more floppers. So many flop like a fish on a bank trying to get back into the Water!


There is a reason I dont voice my opinion about tropical entities very often haha
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This blog has more floppers. So many flop like a fish on a bank trying to get back into the Water!
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Quoting AussieStorm:


I am so glad someone here is keeping an eye on Lupit. i am frightened by what Dr Jeff Maters said about maybe Lupit stalling over the Philippines and dumping another 20 inches of rain


It'll depend on when the third ridge takes over (did he say that? can't remember). I know the JTWC discounted the recurving models but if they continue to insist then they'll have to be watched, of course. I was actually hoping more yesterday Lupit would continue westerly for a little bit longer. Unfortunately, that did not happen.

Furthermore, I had voiced concerns when Lupit was beneath the first ridge that the second ridge would force Lupit west-southwesterly at first. I did not think at the time that track would persist all the way to landfall so I was wrong.

But, I absolutely do not recall a building ridge not pushing a cyclone west-southwesterly for even if a short period of time. I wonder if the third ridge takes over if it doesn't push Lupit even further south than currently forecast.

These are all based on experiences I've seen and are not based on data I've looked at so I very well could be wrong. But, if I thought I was I wouldn't post it.
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Quoting TheCaneWhisperer:



850, which isn't at the surface but also not an MLC either. I was merely indicating if you take the whole 850 area and find a mean center that is the approximate location and how I would track it's movement. What I believe is viewed moving into the EPAC is the MLC, meaning the system is unstacked and very disorganized. The map I drew shows the corresponding levels of atmosphere they refer to.


It just so happens that when I studied the mean 850 center on visible it seemed to be developing a surface feature which is now visible on the surface analysis.
Quoting timtrice:


no way, I'm tracking Lupit on my personal blog and will be doing a write-up on Neki during lunch (hopefully). I don't stop at the US borders and my hurricane season never ends.

Tacoman, please don't agree with me. I work hard on keeping a good reputation and don't want any fungus beneath the toenails, if you get my drift.


I am so glad someone here is keeping an eye on Lupit. i am frightened by what Dr Jeff Maters said about maybe Lupit stalling over the Philippines and dumping another 20+ inches of rain
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I'm thinking the GFDL had the right idea yesterday showing a new low forming a bit deeper in the Carribean, we'll have to see what pans out. You can now clearly see two separate AOIs. One in the Pacific, brushing the coastline, one new AOI developing deeper in the Carribean, 95L, no after seeing what had happened with our first 90L in May, I think they may just re-designate it 94L in my opinion.
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Quoting reedzone:


Actually by looking at that, it seems a new spin is developing a little northwest of where your looking at a new low, but this is what the GFDL showed on it's run yesterday, 94L hitting land and dissipating while a new, stronger storm rapidly forms deeper in the Western Carribean. Something to watch.


Ok.....LOL
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Quoting ElConando:


I think that may be the broad MLC cane whisperer was talking about. Though I could be wrong. May be a whole no ball game if thats the case.



850, which isn't at the surface but also not an MLC either. I was merely indicating if you take the whole 850 area and find a mean center that is the approximate location and how I would track it's movement. What I believe is viewed moving into the EPAC is the MLC, meaning the system is unstacked and very disorganized. The map I drew shows the corresponding levels of atmosphere they refer to.
The original 94L has now made its way offshore and into the Pacific making room for another low to form in the SW Caribbean. The surface map shows both as being stationary and as long as that state of affairs continues neither is likely to develop any time soon.

If I had to choose between which would likely spin up first I would have to go with the Pacific low.
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Quoting P451:


Sure seems like we have two entities now.


Could that be just 1 broad low moving around 1 central point?
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Quoting timtrice:


no way, I'm tracking Lupit on my personal blog and will be doing a write-up on Neki during lunch (hopefully). I don't stop at the US borders and my hurricane season never ends.


Nice man! :)
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TampaSpins Tropical Update
NEW INVEST COMING
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Quoting reedzone:


Well hey, I respect that, at least you don't boldly say "the season is over, see you in 2010". You're making an opinion and your titled to it :)(


no way, I'm tracking Lupit on my personal blog and will be doing a write-up on Neki during lunch (hopefully). I don't stop at the US borders and my hurricane season never ends.

Tacoman, please don't agree with me. I work hard on keeping a good reputation and don't want any fungus beneath the toenails, if you get my drift.
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Quoting P451:


Sure seems like we have two entities now.

Looks pretty clear to me
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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