Western Caribbean disturabance 94L bringing heavy rains; Lupit's path uncertain

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:39 PM GMT on October 21, 2009

Share this Blog
2
+

A broad 1008 mb low pressure area has developed near 10N 84W, inland over Costa Rica. NHC designated this disturbance Invest 94L yesterday, but is no longer issuing model products for the disturbance. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed a broad circulation around the low, with top winds of about 30 - 35 mph over the extreme Southwestern Caribbean. Obviously, the center will have to move over water in order for significant development to occur, but recent satellite loops show that the low is pulling in an increasing amount of moisture from the Pacific, leading to heavy rains over Costa Rica and western Panama. Wind shear is low, about 5 - 10 knots, and there is deep layer of high moisture over the entire Western Caribbean, which both favor development if the center moves over water. Rainfall estimates from the Navy Research Lab indicate that 94L dumped up to three inches of rain over portions of Panama, Costa Rica, and Nicaragua over the past 24 hours.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Invest 94L.

The forecast for 94L
Wind shear is expected to remain in the low to moderate range, 5 - 15 knots, for the next five days in the Western Caribbean. Sea Surface temperatures are very warm, 29°C, and there is plenty of moisture through a deep layer of the atmosphere. The only major impediment to 94L becoming a tropical storm later this week would seem to be proximity to land. At present, only the GFS model develops 94L, but weeks it very weak. The GFS predicts the storm will take a north then northwesterly track across western Cuba early next week, then into the Gulf Coast of Florida later in the week. However, it is equally likely that 94L will stay bottled up in the Western Caribbean for the foreseeable future. I'll continue to give 94L a medium (30 - 50% chance) of eventually becoming a tropical depression over the next ten days. NHC is giving 94L a low (less than 30% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Friday, which is a good forecast. Given 94L's current state of disorganization and location over land, Saturday is the earliest we should expect it to organize into a tropical depression. NHC has not put the Hurricane Hunters on call to fly 94L Thursday or Friday.

Rick misses Baja, hits Mainland Mexico near Mazatlan
Tropical Storm Rick made landfall near 10am EDT in Mainland Mexico just north of Mazatlan. Top winds measured at the Matatlan airport during landfall were 39 mph, gusting to 61 mph. The primary threat from Rick will be heavy rains of up to six inches in the mountains near Mazatlan. Rick's remains should being at most one inch of rain to south-central Texas on Thursday.

Typhoon Lupit weakens and slows; path now uncertain
Typhoon Lupit, now a Category 1 storm with 90 mph winds, continues to have difficulty dealing with a slug of dry air it wrapped into its core two days ago. Microwave imagery showed that the typhoon was missing a portion of its northern eyewall this morning. However, recent Infrared satellite loops show that the eye has warmed and become more distinct, a sign of intensification. Also, the cloud tops of Lupit's eyewall have cooled in recent hours, signaling that they are more vigorous and reaching higher into the atmosphere. Lupit is in an environment favorable for re-intensification, with low wind shear of 5 - 10 knots and warm sea surface temperatures of 28 - 29°C. It would not be a surprise to see Lupit intensify into a major Category 3 typhoon again by Thursday, though the official forecast from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center is less aggressive, calling for a Category 2 storm by tomorrow. Even in its current weakened state, Lupit is a prodigious rain-maker, with rainfall rates exceeding one inch per hour near its core (Figure 2).

The future path of the typhoon is now highly uncertain, as steering currents are weakening and the storm is slowing down. A weakness in the ridge of high pressure steering Lupit west-southwest is developing, and several models (ECMWF, GFS) now predict recurvature of the typhoon before it reaches the Philippines. This optimistic scenario is counterbalanced by the very pessimistic forecasts of the UKMET and NOGAPS models, which take the typhoon inland over the northern portion of Luzon 1 - 2 days from now, and then stall the storm for 2 - 3 days. This would cause a major flooding disaster, as the soils are already saturated and the dams completely full from the 20+ inches of rain dumped by Super Typhoon Parma in early October. If Lupit stalls for several days over Luzon, it would dump another 20+ inches of rain, triggering massive flash flooding and life-threatening mudslides.

Storm chased Jim Edds is in northern Luzon to document Lupit's landfall, and has some interesting photos of the preparations the residents are taking.


Figure 2. Rainfall rates observed by a polar-orbiting microwave satellite at at 10:24 UTC Wednesday 10/21/09. Lupit is expected to dump rains in excess of one inch per hour (red and pink colors) along its path. Up to 12 inches of rain in a 24-hour period are expected from the typhoon. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey..

I'll have an update Thursday morning.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 989 - 939

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21Blog Index

Rain has started again in East End. Coming down pretty good.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8278
Quoting TheCaneWhisperer:
As echoed by many, one more day and I think the situation will present itself. Still, WAYYYY to many possibilities to ponder in the Carribean.

However, looking at the visible, I think that the models have the right idea with the surface low developing in the Bahamas. Shear being too high to allow significant development, MAYBE depression, as it heads w to wnw into Florida bringing beneficial rains then absorbed into the front. I think it was Scottsvb that indicated that yesterday.


you've gotta stop it with the reasoned , rational approach...nobody wants to hear that...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Hopefully it's not East loaded and the rains remain in the Bahama's.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TheCaneWhisperer:
As echoed by many, one more day and I think the situation will present itself. Still, WAYYYY to many possibilities to ponder in the Carribean.

However, looking at the visible, I think that the models have the right idea with the surface low developing in the Bahamas. Shear being too high to allow significant development, MAYBE depression, as it heads w to wnw into Florida bringing beneficial rains then absorbed into the front. I think it was Scottsvb that indicated that yesterday.
I understand what you are saying but I really don't like how the unsettled weather is lingering in the Caribbean. Makes me a little "unsettled" too.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8278
Quoting XL:


Good morning.
It's a much better day up in the North West point. There is still plenty of grey cloud around but the blue is peeping through and it's dry. For how long? - Who knows
Morning. Was pretty clear up here a while ago too but rain clouds moving in fast.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8278
As echoed by many, one more day and I think the situation will present itself. Still, WAYYYY to many possibilities to ponder in the Carribean.

However, looking at the visible, I think that the models have the right idea with the surface low developing in the Bahamas. Shear being too high to allow significant development, MAYBE depression, as it heads w to wnw into Florida bringing beneficial rains then absorbed into the front. I think it was Scottsvb that indicated that yesterday.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
983. XL
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
EE getting very overcast again. First day I could open up the windows but doesn't look like it will be for long.


Good morning.
It's a much better day up in the North West point. There is still plenty of grey cloud around but the blue is peeping through and it's dry. For how long? - Who knows
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8278
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

maybe two lows near the same area 12n80/82w and 12n79w
EE getting very overcast again. First day I could open up the windows but doesn't look like it will be for long.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8278
980. IKE
Looped...

East-PAC low....

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Looks like the sheer fest continues. Too bad we can't get the rain, we are REALLY dry!

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting stormpetrol:

Is this a hint of a partial circulation around 12N/79W?

maybe two lows near the same area 12n80/82w and 12n79w
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Morning folks! In doing some server work...LOL

An employee works from sun to sun, but the IT guys work is never done...
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922




Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Is this a hint of a partial circulation around 12N/79W, though I see a definitive spin around 12/83 just off the east of Nicaragua
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 7695
No real change, as expected. The whole area drifted west a little bit which I think is allowing the western low to become a little better organized as it has a little more distance from the coast. None the less, par for the course.


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting jurakantaino:
Ex-93L tried to get dress last night but Mr.Shear didn't allow her to do so.


Slightly creepy.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Ex-93L tried to get dress last night but Mr.Shear didn't allow her to do so.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
LOL...reading back, I see the trolls got fed well last night! :) too funny...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Good Morning, well looks like the rain has finally let up at least for now, I figure tomorrow or Sat more will be coming, ex94L is still "spinning" just barely off the East coast of Nicaragua, to me the area is bit more consolidated than before and the circulation is better defined, that just my opinion though, looks like the ex94L split and there is also a more definitive spin on the Epac side also. Personally I don't think the AOI in the Bahamas will amount to anything, jmo of course.
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 7695
Hehe...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
don't worry guys the nhc fixed it
Who's worried ? The yellow circles don't make it any more possible or impossible for something to form. The blog will flip back and forth all day again.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8278
don't worry guys the nhc fixed it
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

There they are.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8278
guy the nhc must of had a computer glich
000
ABNT20 KNHC 221131
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT THU OCT 22 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A NEARLY-STATIONARY AREA OF LOW PRESSURE.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS AND THE ADJACENT
ATLANTIC ARE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND THE REMNANTS
OF A COLD FRONT. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
UNFAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS WHILE THE SYSTEM DRIFTS WESTWARD. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...
LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL OR
SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
00
ABNT20 KNHC 221131
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT THU OCT 22 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A NEARLY-STATIONARY AREA OF LOW PRESSURE.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS AND THE ADJACENT
ATLANTIC ARE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND THE REMNANTS
OF A COLD FRONT. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
UNFAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS WHILE THE SYSTEM DRIFTS WESTWARD. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...
LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL OR
SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

Don't see any circle but this is the 8 am TWO
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8278







Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

look like it might come late tonight or tomorrow
I just said that same thing to my husband cause he said looks like the rain is gone. Only for now I think. We'll see.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8278
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Hi. I'm okay. Looks like the rain has held up for now.

look like it might come late tonight or tomorrow
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
hello guy and hello my fello caymanains how are you
Hi. I'm okay. Looks like the rain has held up for now.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8278
Quoting Weather456:


That really is the fun part...but some people get to personal just to proof their point.
Quoting Weather456:


That really is the fun part...but some people get to personal just to proof their point.
I agree. Some start to throw insults and then it gets ugly. If we wanted to hear the bickering we wouldn't have to come here.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8278
hello guy and hello my fello caymanains how are you
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
You're right and you don't learn anything by everyone agreeing with you.


That really is the fun part...but some people get to personal just to prove their point.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
955. beell
06Z GFS 10 Meter Winds
Valid Saturday 06Z

Photobucket

06Z GFS 200mb
Valid Saturday 06z
Upper level winds looking kinda gentle over the western half of the Carribean

Photobucket
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Weather456:
948 and 949,

Oh. I receive them all the time. Like the other day when someone said I will eventually guess right.

I don't reply to them though since it it usually some tryin to hate on you. Grudge is ugly.
You're right and you don't learn anything by everyone agreeing with you.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8278
948 and 949,

Oh. I receive them all the time. Like the other day when someone said I will eventually guess right.

I don't reply to them though since it it usually some tryin to hate on you. Grudge is ugly.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting leftovers:
looks similiar to yesterday oh i aint going to step in the puddle today
LOL
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8278
Quoting IKE:


On this blog, I'm almost afraid to for fear of more personal WU mail telling me to shut-up.


Ike. You are one of the most level headed and mature bloggers here. Just tell them to "buzz off" and do what you do. Remember, it is a make pretend world on this blog and intimidation is irrelevant.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Weather456:
Ike, I don't understand....

Do you mean the discussion we had last night on the blog?
I don't think he meant the discussion itself but the mail he received after. Opposing points of view are no reason for anyone to be telling him to shut up. As far as I know, you and many more respect his opinion just as yours is respected.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8278
948. IKE
I'm talking of personal WU mail.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Ike, I don't understand....

Do you mean the discussion we had last night on the blog?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Just in case no one is looking:

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTHERN AND WESTERN LOUISIANA
SOUTHEAST TEXAS
COASTAL WATERS
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting IKE:


On this blog, I'm almost afraid to for fear of more personal WU mail telling me to shut-up.

I don't see much difference either, but the vorticity in the eastern Pacific is stronger than it was last night.




Good morning.


Good Morning Ike,

That is so pathetic. It's the weather! I have not seen you post anything that wasn't factual, Wow......

Have a nice morning all!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Cayman Retreat, George Town, Grand Cayman, Cayman Islands (PWS)
Updated: 2 sec ago
Temperature: 75.1 °F
Humidity: 87%
Dew Point: 71 °F
Wind: 2.3 mph from the North
Wind Gust: 2.3 mph
Pressure: 29.85 in
Heat Index: 74 °F
Visibility: 6.0 miles
Clouds:
Scattered Clouds 1378 ft
Mostly Cloudy 19685 ft
(Above Ground Level
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8278
Good Morning...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Weather456:
Good Morning,

I have to attend a water management meeting this morning so check out my blog on the tropics at 2PM.
Ok. Thanks
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8278
Good Morning,

I have to attend a water management meeting this morning so check out my blog on the tropics at 2PM.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Lantana, Lantana, Florida (PWS)
Updated: 2 min 1 sec ago
76.3 °F
Mostly Cloudy
Humidity: 76%
Dew Point: 68 °F
Wind: 7.0 mph from the ENE
Wind Gust: 7.0 mph
Pressure: 29.94 in (Rising)
Heat Index: 78 °F
Visibility: 10.0 miles
UV: 0 out of 16
Clouds: Scattered Clouds 2800 ft
Mostly Cloudy 3700 ft
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 16 ft

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting IKE:


On this blog, I'm almost afraid to for fear of more personal WU mail telling me to shut-up.

I don't see much difference either, but the vorticity in the eastern Pacific is stronger than it was last night.




Good morning.
Don't be afraid to voice your opinion. WU mail can be deleted just like any other e-mail.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8278

Viewing: 989 - 939

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.