Western Caribbean disturabance 94L bringing heavy rains; Lupit's path uncertain

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:39 PM GMT on October 21, 2009

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A broad 1008 mb low pressure area has developed near 10N 84W, inland over Costa Rica. NHC designated this disturbance Invest 94L yesterday, but is no longer issuing model products for the disturbance. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed a broad circulation around the low, with top winds of about 30 - 35 mph over the extreme Southwestern Caribbean. Obviously, the center will have to move over water in order for significant development to occur, but recent satellite loops show that the low is pulling in an increasing amount of moisture from the Pacific, leading to heavy rains over Costa Rica and western Panama. Wind shear is low, about 5 - 10 knots, and there is deep layer of high moisture over the entire Western Caribbean, which both favor development if the center moves over water. Rainfall estimates from the Navy Research Lab indicate that 94L dumped up to three inches of rain over portions of Panama, Costa Rica, and Nicaragua over the past 24 hours.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Invest 94L.

The forecast for 94L
Wind shear is expected to remain in the low to moderate range, 5 - 15 knots, for the next five days in the Western Caribbean. Sea Surface temperatures are very warm, 29°C, and there is plenty of moisture through a deep layer of the atmosphere. The only major impediment to 94L becoming a tropical storm later this week would seem to be proximity to land. At present, only the GFS model develops 94L, but weeks it very weak. The GFS predicts the storm will take a north then northwesterly track across western Cuba early next week, then into the Gulf Coast of Florida later in the week. However, it is equally likely that 94L will stay bottled up in the Western Caribbean for the foreseeable future. I'll continue to give 94L a medium (30 - 50% chance) of eventually becoming a tropical depression over the next ten days. NHC is giving 94L a low (less than 30% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Friday, which is a good forecast. Given 94L's current state of disorganization and location over land, Saturday is the earliest we should expect it to organize into a tropical depression. NHC has not put the Hurricane Hunters on call to fly 94L Thursday or Friday.

Rick misses Baja, hits Mainland Mexico near Mazatlan
Tropical Storm Rick made landfall near 10am EDT in Mainland Mexico just north of Mazatlan. Top winds measured at the Matatlan airport during landfall were 39 mph, gusting to 61 mph. The primary threat from Rick will be heavy rains of up to six inches in the mountains near Mazatlan. Rick's remains should being at most one inch of rain to south-central Texas on Thursday.

Typhoon Lupit weakens and slows; path now uncertain
Typhoon Lupit, now a Category 1 storm with 90 mph winds, continues to have difficulty dealing with a slug of dry air it wrapped into its core two days ago. Microwave imagery showed that the typhoon was missing a portion of its northern eyewall this morning. However, recent Infrared satellite loops show that the eye has warmed and become more distinct, a sign of intensification. Also, the cloud tops of Lupit's eyewall have cooled in recent hours, signaling that they are more vigorous and reaching higher into the atmosphere. Lupit is in an environment favorable for re-intensification, with low wind shear of 5 - 10 knots and warm sea surface temperatures of 28 - 29°C. It would not be a surprise to see Lupit intensify into a major Category 3 typhoon again by Thursday, though the official forecast from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center is less aggressive, calling for a Category 2 storm by tomorrow. Even in its current weakened state, Lupit is a prodigious rain-maker, with rainfall rates exceeding one inch per hour near its core (Figure 2).

The future path of the typhoon is now highly uncertain, as steering currents are weakening and the storm is slowing down. A weakness in the ridge of high pressure steering Lupit west-southwest is developing, and several models (ECMWF, GFS) now predict recurvature of the typhoon before it reaches the Philippines. This optimistic scenario is counterbalanced by the very pessimistic forecasts of the UKMET and NOGAPS models, which take the typhoon inland over the northern portion of Luzon 1 - 2 days from now, and then stall the storm for 2 - 3 days. This would cause a major flooding disaster, as the soils are already saturated and the dams completely full from the 20+ inches of rain dumped by Super Typhoon Parma in early October. If Lupit stalls for several days over Luzon, it would dump another 20+ inches of rain, triggering massive flash flooding and life-threatening mudslides.

Storm chased Jim Edds is in northern Luzon to document Lupit's landfall, and has some interesting photos of the preparations the residents are taking.


Figure 2. Rainfall rates observed by a polar-orbiting microwave satellite at at 10:24 UTC Wednesday 10/21/09. Lupit is expected to dump rains in excess of one inch per hour (red and pink colors) along its path. Up to 12 inches of rain in a 24-hour period are expected from the typhoon. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey..

I'll have an update Thursday morning.

Jeff Masters

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139. IKE
12Z CMC
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
Low Cloud Product Loop,Caribbean
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Quoting Grothar:


Oh, they are all good guys, we write off-blog to each other sometimes. I was only joking, of course. I just don't like when they gang up on Drak sometimes, or others for that matter. Drak and Weather456 were doing a great anlysis the other night. The only expertise I have on weather is to carry an umbrella if it looks cloudy.


I never definitively said anything would hit Florida or New England. Those are fabrications.
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This afternoon satellite imagery, surface observations, and satellite derived winds confirm two low pressure areas: one in the southern Caribbean and one south of Costa Rica. Upper level winds still appear somewhat favorable for development. Model guidance has backed off on development but there is still a chance for development in this climatologically favored area of the southern Caribbean.
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I may be wrong but it really looks like something is trying to spin-up just west of Costa Rica. At least on the vis. satellite it appears so.
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Quoting Floodman:

Belgian wafflecasters...the worst kind...LOL

**No offense to anyone from Belgium, by the way LOL**


wow LOL love it,

pass the syrup?
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
Quoting Grothar:


No, actually English is my 3rd language. I was born on Long Island, but raised mostly in Europe. Norway, Germany, Switzerland and England. Have stayed long periods of time in other countries. I did attend university here as well. Stony Brook University on Long Island and U of Miami. My home is in Ft. Lauderdale for many years. Is my English that bad??


Your English is better than many on here that claim to be **ahem** Americans...you know what they say though: The British and the Americans, two peoples separated by a common language...
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Quoting Floodman:

Belgian wafflecasters...the worst kind...LOL

**No offense to anyone from Belgium, by the way LOL**

ROFL! In the famous vernacular of one of our blog buddies,
"Not going to go there...nope...not gonna' do it."
Pass the popcorn, pls.
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Very little in the way of turning in the E-Pac, at least at the 850 level. Most is overland or in the Caribbean. Looking at the CIMSS site, you can start to see the situation portrayed by Scottsvb @ the GFS coming together. Could be an interesting weekend.




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GFS looks to be on board with CMC
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GOM IR Loop

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Quoting pearlandaggie:
wafflecasters?

LOL

Belgian wafflecasters...the worst kind...LOL

**No offense to anyone from Belgium, by the way LOL**
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CMC developes something north of Bahamas and has it brushing OBX in NC
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Again, we really won't know things until about Friday or Saturday when conditions improve.
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As I mentioned earlier, the GFDL from yesterday seems to be panning out so far, we'll see what happens.
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Quoting Grothar:


Perhaps next year, thanks!


alright! no problem
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
GFS 12Z has backed off now. Nothing but a weak low that gets absorbed and dissipated into a cold front on Sunday. All the energy has been shifted over to the EPAC now and a more organized LP has formed on that side of the fence. The convection in the Caribbean most likely won't amount to much or it could even just die off if dry air continues to get pushed southward. It was fun for the wishcasters while it lasted. :)
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Quoting Grothar:


No, actually English is my 3rd language. I was born on Long Island, but raised mostly in Europe. Norway, Germany, Switzerland and England. Have stayed long periods of time in other countries. I did attend university here as well. Stony Brook University on Long Island and U of Miami. My home is in Ft. Lauderdale for many years. Is my English that bad??

Oh my goodness, no, your English is superb. I was poking fun at my own sentence, because I wasn't sure if the colloquial "backwoods" language I used would translate. No flamethrowers, please! I've worked in lots of backwoods and have enjoyed them just fine.
Grothar, it is just amazing to me when people can think and speak in more than one language. Good simultaneous interpretation is a wonder to behold. I am in awe of one language going in a person's ear and another language coming out of their mouth.
And I only have crummy high-school French!

Have a great day. T-Dude helped me figure out that it is best that I get off the blog before afternoon when it seems some of the real strange & sometimes nasty ones come out. The worst one from yesterday is gone, well, 2 worst ones are gone. Thanks to all who flagged. Bye for now, I'll be lurking in the late evening when some really good people come on and I watch and learn!
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also looking at things I am not sure 94L is dead, because while the site I use for info on the invests hasn't updated on 94L since last night; it also hasn't deactivated 94L either

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Quoting tornadodude:
Come on Grothar, you know you want to go to the game lol


Perhaps next year, thanks!
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27210
Quoting Grothar:


No, actually English is my 3rd language. I was born on Long Island, but raised mostly in Europe. Norway, Germany, Switzerland and England. Have stayed long periods of time in other countries. I did attend university here as well. Stony Brook University on Long Island and U of Miami. My home is in Ft. Lauderdale for many years. Is my English that bad??
No. A lot better than some folks.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8436
Navy site still has 94L posted, with sat picture dated for today, 1615Z.
Member Since: May 18, 2007 Posts: 289 Comments: 1639
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Yes, but Tampa and Scott have been saying the same thing and Good evening to you.


Yes, I have seen their comments. They were not the ones to whom I was referring, though. I shall use a phrase which I believe was taught to me by mikatnight, My Bad!! I was just making a little banter, did not mean to offend anyone.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27210
Come on Grothar, you know you want to go to the game lol
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:

I'm yer friend and I like them-there Matisse-wannabe drawings you make with the 'puter real good. (Is English your 1st language? Because that sentence would ruin it.)


No, actually English is my 3rd language. I was born on Long Island, but raised mostly in Europe. Norway, Germany, Switzerland and England. Have stayed long periods of time in other countries. I did attend university here as well. Stony Brook University on Long Island and U of Miami. My home is in Ft. Lauderdale for many years. Is my English that bad??
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27210
TS you nailed it dead on, ok so 94L is gone, its just a number really

Just because 94L is gone has no bearing on whether or not in the end something will form; we said it would take days and it is

A new low is indeed forming and we could see a new invest out of this. The GFDL nailed this one pretty well yesterday when it forecasted the low associated with 94L to dissipate or move into the EPAC and then a new low forming in its place
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111. beell
Quoting IKE:
12Z GFS through 132 hours....


Maybe...typical GFS behavior along/ahead of a front-transient lows-always the chance one will deepen. That signal has been evident for quite a few runs.
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Quoting scottsvb:


456 is a good guy.. Drak so far this year had 2 storms hit florida this year and 2 hit New Nngland and missed a couple others that he said will develop.. I never listen to him. StormW,456,TampaSpin and I may be missing someone else are usually the 1s to listen to..but always listen first to the NHC and NWS.


Oh, they are all good guys, we write off-blog to each other sometimes. I was only joking, of course. I just don't like when they gang up on Drak sometimes, or others for that matter. Drak and Weather456 were doing a great anlysis the other night. The only expertise I have on weather is to carry an umbrella if it looks cloudy.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27210
Quoting Grothar:


It's this evening for me. I just like when something new comes out and some bloggers say, "see, I've been saying that for days,Nobody ever listens to me." Kind of funny. Since I am not an expert on the weather I just post images and let one draw their own conclusions.

I'm yer friend and I like them-there Matisse-wannabe drawings you make with the 'puter real good. (Is English your 1st language? Because that sentence would ruin it.)
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Quoting Grothar:


It's this evening for me. I just like when something new comes out and some bloggers say, "see, I've been saying that for days,Nobody ever listens to me." Kind of funny. Since I am not an expert on the weather I just post images and let one draw their own conclusions.
Yes, but Tampa and Scott have been saying the same thing and Good evening to you.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8436
Blog Update
Reflector site for those at work, includes Dr. Masters & Weather456, daily update.

Seismic Monitor

AOI

AOI
Seismic Monitor
Humor in Comments
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26516
Quoting pearlandaggie:
wafflecasters?

LOL


LOL

crow waffles?
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
wafflecasters?

LOL
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Quoting IKE:
12Z GFS through 132 hours....


Cool, FL Peninsula gets 2 depressions, lol. Classic
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103. IKE
12Z GFS through 132 hours....
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
quoting tacoman- just because you bombed out on every storm except one means you are perfect..you need a reality check pal..

you only got one storm right also, I believe...

not trying to argue just saying
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
Quoting Grothar:


Hey, why did everyone jump on me two nights ago when I said the new low would be forming NE of the convection. Drak and Weather456 totally disagreed with me. I thought they were my buds. I felt so badly, I never posted anything but graphs after that. Boo Hoo, poor me.


456 is a good guy.. Drak so far this year had 2 storms hit florida this year and 2 hit New Nngland and missed a couple others that he said will develop.. I never listen to him. StormW,456,TampaSpin and I may be missing someone else are usually the 1s to listen to..but always listen first to the NHC and NWS.
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tacoman: do you have any concerns about the remnants of Rick getting into the GOM and causing problems?
Member Since: May 18, 2007 Posts: 289 Comments: 1639
Quoting kmanislander:


Visibility in George Town down to about 300 feet

WOW! Can't see a thing from the live cam, what a nasty day!!
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Stick a fork in 2009.
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All the vorticity from 94L went inland into Nicaragua. The rotation and confined convection is in the EPAC now. This was most likely the Atlantic's last chance for a storm to form in 2009. Time to move on to 2010.
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Quoting Grothar:
Hey TD, still on? I love hockey. I could fly back in about 22 hours.


haha hey, that would be cool
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Poor you but more seem to be jumping on your bandwagon this morning.


It's this evening for me. I just like when something new comes out and some bloggers say, "see, I've been saying that for days,Nobody ever listens to me." Kind of funny. Since I am not an expert on the weather I just post images and let one draw their own conclusions.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27210
Link
check out the link, click on the cam to control might take a minute or look at the weather live real time downtown , Grand cayman
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well stormtop if you are hinting at something hitting the north central gulfcoast you can forget it.the only part of the gulf coast that would be under the gun would be s/central fla. check the weather patterns, and go saints.
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Quoting stormpetrol:

No bad, but real nasty weather here in Grand Cayman, looks like Heaven & earth coming together.


Visibility in George Town down to about 300 feet
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Hey TD, still on? I love hockey. I could fly back in about 22 hours.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27210
Quoting Grothar:


Hey, why did everyone jump on me two nights ago when I said the new low would be forming NE of the convection. Drak and Weather456 totally disagreed with me. I thought they were my buds. I felt so badly, I never posted anything but graphs after that. Boo Hoo, poor me.
Poor you but more seem to be jumping on your bandwagon this morning.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8436
Quoting Floodman:


Howdy, Stormpetrol...how's things?


No bad, but real nasty weather here in Grand Cayman, looks like Heaven & earth coming together.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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