Western Caribbean disturabance 94L bringing heavy rains; Lupit's path uncertain

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:39 PM GMT on October 21, 2009

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A broad 1008 mb low pressure area has developed near 10N 84W, inland over Costa Rica. NHC designated this disturbance Invest 94L yesterday, but is no longer issuing model products for the disturbance. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed a broad circulation around the low, with top winds of about 30 - 35 mph over the extreme Southwestern Caribbean. Obviously, the center will have to move over water in order for significant development to occur, but recent satellite loops show that the low is pulling in an increasing amount of moisture from the Pacific, leading to heavy rains over Costa Rica and western Panama. Wind shear is low, about 5 - 10 knots, and there is deep layer of high moisture over the entire Western Caribbean, which both favor development if the center moves over water. Rainfall estimates from the Navy Research Lab indicate that 94L dumped up to three inches of rain over portions of Panama, Costa Rica, and Nicaragua over the past 24 hours.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Invest 94L.

The forecast for 94L
Wind shear is expected to remain in the low to moderate range, 5 - 15 knots, for the next five days in the Western Caribbean. Sea Surface temperatures are very warm, 29°C, and there is plenty of moisture through a deep layer of the atmosphere. The only major impediment to 94L becoming a tropical storm later this week would seem to be proximity to land. At present, only the GFS model develops 94L, but weeks it very weak. The GFS predicts the storm will take a north then northwesterly track across western Cuba early next week, then into the Gulf Coast of Florida later in the week. However, it is equally likely that 94L will stay bottled up in the Western Caribbean for the foreseeable future. I'll continue to give 94L a medium (30 - 50% chance) of eventually becoming a tropical depression over the next ten days. NHC is giving 94L a low (less than 30% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Friday, which is a good forecast. Given 94L's current state of disorganization and location over land, Saturday is the earliest we should expect it to organize into a tropical depression. NHC has not put the Hurricane Hunters on call to fly 94L Thursday or Friday.

Rick misses Baja, hits Mainland Mexico near Mazatlan
Tropical Storm Rick made landfall near 10am EDT in Mainland Mexico just north of Mazatlan. Top winds measured at the Matatlan airport during landfall were 39 mph, gusting to 61 mph. The primary threat from Rick will be heavy rains of up to six inches in the mountains near Mazatlan. Rick's remains should being at most one inch of rain to south-central Texas on Thursday.

Typhoon Lupit weakens and slows; path now uncertain
Typhoon Lupit, now a Category 1 storm with 90 mph winds, continues to have difficulty dealing with a slug of dry air it wrapped into its core two days ago. Microwave imagery showed that the typhoon was missing a portion of its northern eyewall this morning. However, recent Infrared satellite loops show that the eye has warmed and become more distinct, a sign of intensification. Also, the cloud tops of Lupit's eyewall have cooled in recent hours, signaling that they are more vigorous and reaching higher into the atmosphere. Lupit is in an environment favorable for re-intensification, with low wind shear of 5 - 10 knots and warm sea surface temperatures of 28 - 29°C. It would not be a surprise to see Lupit intensify into a major Category 3 typhoon again by Thursday, though the official forecast from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center is less aggressive, calling for a Category 2 storm by tomorrow. Even in its current weakened state, Lupit is a prodigious rain-maker, with rainfall rates exceeding one inch per hour near its core (Figure 2).

The future path of the typhoon is now highly uncertain, as steering currents are weakening and the storm is slowing down. A weakness in the ridge of high pressure steering Lupit west-southwest is developing, and several models (ECMWF, GFS) now predict recurvature of the typhoon before it reaches the Philippines. This optimistic scenario is counterbalanced by the very pessimistic forecasts of the UKMET and NOGAPS models, which take the typhoon inland over the northern portion of Luzon 1 - 2 days from now, and then stall the storm for 2 - 3 days. This would cause a major flooding disaster, as the soils are already saturated and the dams completely full from the 20+ inches of rain dumped by Super Typhoon Parma in early October. If Lupit stalls for several days over Luzon, it would dump another 20+ inches of rain, triggering massive flash flooding and life-threatening mudslides.

Storm chased Jim Edds is in northern Luzon to document Lupit's landfall, and has some interesting photos of the preparations the residents are taking.


Figure 2. Rainfall rates observed by a polar-orbiting microwave satellite at at 10:24 UTC Wednesday 10/21/09. Lupit is expected to dump rains in excess of one inch per hour (red and pink colors) along its path. Up to 12 inches of rain in a 24-hour period are expected from the typhoon. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey..

I'll have an update Thursday morning.

Jeff Masters

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These take time.. patience. People are jumping the gun always for the past few years on current status via satellite frames.
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179. RitaEvac

Poof!!!
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Quoting RitaEvac:
I'm sorry.... lets living it up, guys looks to be a serious threat of a storm in the Carribbean this weekend and heading towards Florida, is that better?!


One last thing towards you and then I am done; not one person here who has been watching this area the last few days said anything about a hurricane hitting Florida or anywhere else

You conjure this crap out of thin air thinking you can throw it back at people if something doesn't develop. It is sad, pathetic and most importantly wrong, because no one said such things in the first place.

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Quoting Floodman:


Do you know any other songs? You've been singing this one since June


Floodman! whats happening
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Quoting RitaEvac:
I'm sorry.... lets living it up, guys looks to be a serious threat of a storm in the Carribbean this weekend and heading towards Florida, is that better?!
Dude, we really don't know what will happen, you can't assume things because there is a good chance you could be wrong. Right now we know that there is a possibility of SLOW development with 94L, it's still 94L on the navy site, they haven't de-activate it yet. Just sit back and watch what happens, it will be a long week.
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181. Floodman 1:57 PM EDT on October 21, 2009 "The Answer My Friend, Is Blowin in the Wind, The Answer is Blowin in the Wind"..Lol
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Quoting Drakoen:


Exactly and the dynamic computer forecast models indicate all 850mb vorticity maximum to end up in the Caribbean.


Similar to when I was tracking Beta
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Quoting Drakoen:


Exactly and the dynamic computer forecast models indicate all 850mb vorticity maximum to end up in the Caribbean.


Also I haven't seen the deactivation of 94L either on the site I use
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Quoting RitaEvac:
NHC is in the progress of putting the books and paperwork on the shelves for the season. Probably already working on what systems should of been named and which ones shouldn't have. With a relief on their faces they are shutting the book for 2009 Hurricane season


Do you know any other songs? You've been singing this one since June
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Quoting Weather456:
After reading this morning blog, I had to laugh.

Tampaspin you have jump to some conclusions that I think is too early to call. They may have stop running models on 94L but the disturbance is still there and satellite imagery clearly shows 2 centers, one in the EPAC and the SW Caribbean.


Exactly and the dynamic computer forecast models indicate all 850mb vorticity maximum to end up in the Caribbean.
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I'm sorry.... lets living it up, guys looks to be a serious threat of a storm in the Carribbean this weekend and heading towards Florida, is that better?!
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Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT WED OCT 21 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A NEARLY STATIONARY AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF
CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS. THIS SYSTEM REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED AND
DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR. HEAVY RAINS WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE OVER COSTA RICA...NICARAGUA...AND HONDURAS
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE... LESS THAN 30
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA


Sorry to disappoint the down-casters but NHC says status quo, this was all expected
Something will form in the Western Caribbean eventually. But it will be quite a while before it does. If that shear to the north moves away, things could turn very interesting fast...jmo
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21264
Quoting RitaEvac:
NHC is in the progress of putting the books and paperwork on the shelves for the season. Probably already working on what systems should of been named and which ones shouldn't have. With a relief on their faces they are shutting the book for 2009 Hurricane season


Why do you do this? Seriously, your not gonna change peoples minds. So what if you were affected by Hurricane Rita, doesn't mean you can downcast the rest of the seasons. I'm sorry if you lost anything over there, hurricanes happen, you can't stop Mother Nature, basically all you're doing is making a fool of yourself. If this storm forms, I'm holding you to it.
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Post 169, Keep up the downcasting, you seen to be good at it.
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Quoting RitaEvac:
NHC is in the progress of putting the books and paperwork on the shelves for the season. Probably already working on what systems should of been named and which ones shouldn't have.


What is next from you? Downgrade all the storms from this season so it ends up 0-0-0? Cancel the entire 2010 season cuz it isn't worth your time to track something that may take a few days to develop?

Not surprised, I am done reacting, time to put you on ignore. I have a hard time getting in a battle of wits with an unarmed opponent.
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After reading this morning blog posts, I had to laugh.

Tampaspin you have jump to some conclusions that I think is too early to call. They may have stop running models on 94L but the disturbance is still there and satellite imagery clearly shows 2 centers, one in the EPAC and the SW Caribbean.
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NHC is in the progress of putting the books and paperwork on the shelves for the season. Probably already working on what systems should of been named and which ones shouldn't have. With a relief on their faces they are shutting the book for 2009 Hurricane season
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT WED OCT 21 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A NEARLY STATIONARY AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF
CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS. THIS SYSTEM REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED AND
DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR. HEAVY RAINS WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE OVER COSTA RICA...NICARAGUA...AND HONDURAS
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE... LESS THAN 30
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA


Sorry to disappoint the down-casters but NHC says status quo, this was all expected


Don't forget the pacific side, no yellow circle there as of the new update, they are still more focused on the Western Carribean.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT WED OCT 21 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A NEARLY STATIONARY AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF
CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS. THIS SYSTEM REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED AND
DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR. HEAVY RAINS WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE OVER COSTA RICA...NICARAGUA...AND HONDURAS
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE... LESS THAN 30
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA


Sorry to disappoint the down-casters but NHC says status quo, this was all expected
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If Panama and Costa Rica just got out of the way, we might have something here by now....... :)
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SW Carribbean is stuck in neutral and nothing is going anywhere any time soon, seems like whatever keeps forming down there rotates its way west into the Pacific where it has better chance of developing anyway. By the weekend, dont be surprised if absolutely nothing is down there,
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Max Mayfield - Be thankful, be vigilant - http://tinyurl.com/max-mayfield
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Quoting RitaEvac:
next low could go on west into the Pacific as well and that would really tick some off


That is possible, but not definite, we'll have to see what happens.
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Not well organize...not expected to be.

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NEW TOPIC POSTED:
South Florida StormWatch
(main site)
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next low could go on west into the Pacific as well and that would really tick some off
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Quoting Weather456:
Not surprise there was another low on the Caribbean side



with steering weak there is no telling where this will all go, pretty much all the models keep the bulk of the energy in the Caribbean

as we have said many times, this is going to take time
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Today's Tropical Update:

NUTTIN
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Quoting DookiePBC:


One positive to sitting that close to the ice though is that you get a great view of any checks along the boards. The one downside to college hockey though is that unlike the pro game, there are rarely, if ever, fights.

Oh and to make this post weather related, the game is played on ice, which is frozen water, and if the temperature in the arena gets too high, fog could form and limit visibility to 5 rows.


haha yeah, well it should be intense, since I'm from Purdue xD

where the weather is not as cold....
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8347
Quoting tornadodude:
so the free tickets I got are for section 16, row 3, is that good?



ummmm....
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Quoting tornadodude:


oh alright, cool, thanks! I dont know much about hockey, thats why I asked, the key is getting there, it is about a 6 and a half hour drive, so gas money is key haha


One positive to sitting that close to the ice though is that you get a great view of any checks along the boards. The one downside to college hockey though is that unlike the pro game, there are rarely, if ever, fights.

Oh and to make this post weather related, the game is played on ice, which is frozen water, and if the temperature in the arena gets too high, fog could form and limit visibility to 5 rows.
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Not surprise there was another low on the Caribbean side

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Quoting DookiePBC:
TornadoDude...

Those seats are ok...between the blue lines is a good spot, but I prefer to sit a bit higher up because it affords a better view of the action. Either way, that game should be fun. Enjoy!


oh alright, cool, thanks! I dont know much about hockey, thats why I asked, the key is getting there, it is about a 6 and a half hour drive, so gas money is key haha
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8347
Quoting Weather456:


No you didn't

Good Afternoon



Good Afternoon
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TornadoDude...

Those seats are ok...between the blue lines is a good spot, but I prefer to sit a bit higher up because it affords a better view of the action. Either way, that game should be fun. Enjoy!
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Quoting Drakoen:


Firefox spell check made it the wrong word and I didn't realize it.


That was pretty good...I was trying desperately to figure out what it was you were trying to say...LOL

At any rate, I figured you were doing a fine job of obfuscation...
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151. IKE
12Z NOGAPS...


12Z UKMET
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting Drakoen:


I never definitively said anything would hit Florida or New England. Those are fabrications.


No you didn't

Good Afternoon
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Quoting Drakoen:


I never definitively said anything would hit Florida or New England. Those are fabrications.


I know, that is why I defended you. Not that you need it.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26156
so the free tickets I got are for section 16, row 3, is that good?

Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8347
Quoting Drakoen:


Firefox spell check made it the wrong word and I didn't realize it.


Thank you. I was going nuts trying to figure out what you were trying to convey after I had to look it up and was having no luck at making it fit.
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Quoting reedzone:
The GFS shows the same low that MIGHT be forming in the WC, moving northward and developing a bit further north then last anticipated. Same storm, different scenario, these things happen.


paloma.

if you watch the loop dr. masters posted in his last blog, this storm looks exactly like it. Stuff festered on and off in this area for about 3 weeks before paloma developed. Anyway, bbl.
Member Since: July 29, 2006 Posts: 28 Comments: 1792
drakoen Never use spell check you are now listed as either darken, drake,drakes, darkens or dracaena. I prefer the dracaena LOL
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The GFS shows the same low that MIGHT be forming in the WC, moving northward and developing a bit further north then last anticipated. Same storm, different scenario, these things happen.
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Quoting Drakoen:


Firefox spell check made it the wrong word and I didn't realize it.
Might be the wrong word for what you meant but at least it is a word.
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
You made me use the dictionary. That's a word I've never heard.


Firefox spell check made it the wrong word and I didn't realize it.
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Quoting Drakoen:
This afternoon satellite imagery, surface observations, and satellite derived winds confirm two low pressure areas: one in the southern Caribbean and one south of Costa Rica. Upper level winds still appear somewhat favorable for development. Model guidance has backed off on development but there is still a chance for development in this tautologically favored area of the southern Caribbean.
You made me use the dictionary. That's a word I've never heard.
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Will the Wishcasters and downcasters please quit bickering or join the 2 together and wish every storm gets downgraded before it hits land. Now a healthy debate that uses facts and logic will help me to learn. Remember History is always predictable.. Predicting the future at best is an educated guess.
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139. IKE
12Z CMC
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.