Western Caribbean disturabance 94L bringing heavy rains; Lupit's path uncertain

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:39 PM GMT on October 21, 2009

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A broad 1008 mb low pressure area has developed near 10N 84W, inland over Costa Rica. NHC designated this disturbance Invest 94L yesterday, but is no longer issuing model products for the disturbance. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed a broad circulation around the low, with top winds of about 30 - 35 mph over the extreme Southwestern Caribbean. Obviously, the center will have to move over water in order for significant development to occur, but recent satellite loops show that the low is pulling in an increasing amount of moisture from the Pacific, leading to heavy rains over Costa Rica and western Panama. Wind shear is low, about 5 - 10 knots, and there is deep layer of high moisture over the entire Western Caribbean, which both favor development if the center moves over water. Rainfall estimates from the Navy Research Lab indicate that 94L dumped up to three inches of rain over portions of Panama, Costa Rica, and Nicaragua over the past 24 hours.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Invest 94L.

The forecast for 94L
Wind shear is expected to remain in the low to moderate range, 5 - 15 knots, for the next five days in the Western Caribbean. Sea Surface temperatures are very warm, 29°C, and there is plenty of moisture through a deep layer of the atmosphere. The only major impediment to 94L becoming a tropical storm later this week would seem to be proximity to land. At present, only the GFS model develops 94L, but weeks it very weak. The GFS predicts the storm will take a north then northwesterly track across western Cuba early next week, then into the Gulf Coast of Florida later in the week. However, it is equally likely that 94L will stay bottled up in the Western Caribbean for the foreseeable future. I'll continue to give 94L a medium (30 - 50% chance) of eventually becoming a tropical depression over the next ten days. NHC is giving 94L a low (less than 30% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Friday, which is a good forecast. Given 94L's current state of disorganization and location over land, Saturday is the earliest we should expect it to organize into a tropical depression. NHC has not put the Hurricane Hunters on call to fly 94L Thursday or Friday.

Rick misses Baja, hits Mainland Mexico near Mazatlan
Tropical Storm Rick made landfall near 10am EDT in Mainland Mexico just north of Mazatlan. Top winds measured at the Matatlan airport during landfall were 39 mph, gusting to 61 mph. The primary threat from Rick will be heavy rains of up to six inches in the mountains near Mazatlan. Rick's remains should being at most one inch of rain to south-central Texas on Thursday.

Typhoon Lupit weakens and slows; path now uncertain
Typhoon Lupit, now a Category 1 storm with 90 mph winds, continues to have difficulty dealing with a slug of dry air it wrapped into its core two days ago. Microwave imagery showed that the typhoon was missing a portion of its northern eyewall this morning. However, recent Infrared satellite loops show that the eye has warmed and become more distinct, a sign of intensification. Also, the cloud tops of Lupit's eyewall have cooled in recent hours, signaling that they are more vigorous and reaching higher into the atmosphere. Lupit is in an environment favorable for re-intensification, with low wind shear of 5 - 10 knots and warm sea surface temperatures of 28 - 29°C. It would not be a surprise to see Lupit intensify into a major Category 3 typhoon again by Thursday, though the official forecast from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center is less aggressive, calling for a Category 2 storm by tomorrow. Even in its current weakened state, Lupit is a prodigious rain-maker, with rainfall rates exceeding one inch per hour near its core (Figure 2).

The future path of the typhoon is now highly uncertain, as steering currents are weakening and the storm is slowing down. A weakness in the ridge of high pressure steering Lupit west-southwest is developing, and several models (ECMWF, GFS) now predict recurvature of the typhoon before it reaches the Philippines. This optimistic scenario is counterbalanced by the very pessimistic forecasts of the UKMET and NOGAPS models, which take the typhoon inland over the northern portion of Luzon 1 - 2 days from now, and then stall the storm for 2 - 3 days. This would cause a major flooding disaster, as the soils are already saturated and the dams completely full from the 20+ inches of rain dumped by Super Typhoon Parma in early October. If Lupit stalls for several days over Luzon, it would dump another 20+ inches of rain, triggering massive flash flooding and life-threatening mudslides.

Storm chased Jim Edds is in northern Luzon to document Lupit's landfall, and has some interesting photos of the preparations the residents are taking.


Figure 2. Rainfall rates observed by a polar-orbiting microwave satellite at at 10:24 UTC Wednesday 10/21/09. Lupit is expected to dump rains in excess of one inch per hour (red and pink colors) along its path. Up to 12 inches of rain in a 24-hour period are expected from the typhoon. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey..

I'll have an update Thursday morning.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting TheCaneWhisperer:


No need to apologize, I thought it was odd of you, that is why I only brought it to your attention.


well thanks for letting me know! I didnt realize what all it said :P
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8201
Quoting tornadodude:


sorry guys, was an honest mistake, you guys know I didnt intend any harm :( sorry


No need to apologize, I thought it was odd of you, that is why I only brought it to your attention.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
237. xcool
lol
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15620
Quoting hydrus:
that is just (POOF) that it is easy to offend people sometimes.


I guess I could have taken the incantation from the Wizard of ID:

Frimmin on the jim jam
Frippin at the krotz
Alakazam! Alakazotz!

(the poof would have been implied, obviously) LOL
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Quoting xcool:
bad matt


:(
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8201
234. xcool
bad matt
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15620
Quoting Floodman:


Apparently some folks liked it enough to keep it around. I got banned for using it, but my usage was a little different and I said things like:

"That's it, you're an idiot! **POOF!**

The admin took umbrage at my militance and there you have it...LOL
That is just (POOF) that it is easy to offend people sometimes.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20507
Quoting RitaEvac:


Houston/Galveston


You're going to get it pretty good no matter what it does, I guess...
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Quoting Seastep:


I think a disclaimer would work and would be most appreciated by some.
Quoting TheCaneWhisperer:
#207

Minors are surely around. Not to mention the other unacceptable comments.


sorry guys, was an honest mistake, you guys know I didnt intend any harm :( sorry
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8201
Quoting tornadodude:
Hey, sorry guys, didnt realize what it said, I removed, once again, sorry :(


See you tomorrow, tornadodude! I posted one curse word, deleted it within a minute and was banned. An email to Admin removed the ban early but I'm sure some freaking jerk had to report it instead of giving you time to remove it (which I saw you did).
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Markymark, just stop, stop the downcasting, Mother Nature is NOT gonna follow your orders, just stop it while your ahead.
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7340
ex-94L's saving grace is its environment. Very moist, shear is low. It will allow to go just "sit there" until it becomes something or if the environment becomes unfavorable. Now theoretically it cannot sit there for too long. But in the normal scale of tropical disturbances, ex-94l can last, for now.
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Quoting ElConando:


about your four tickets. You could just get a blanket and lie down on them. Make you look like a G.


hahaha thanks
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8201
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Here is the correct link, I must have highlighted the wrong one :( sorry again

Wunderwaffles
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8201
Quoting tornadodude:
Hey, sorry guys, didnt realize what it said, I removed, once again, sorry :(

Good man.
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Hey, sorry guys, didnt realize what it said, I removed, once again, sorry :(
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8201
Quoting Floodman:


There was some talk among local mets over the last day or two that the CoC (what ever is left of it) could stay inland, which would cause a lot more rain and further north as well. You in the Golden Triangle? I'm in DFW


Houston/Galveston
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Quoting Weather456:


Some are not even realizing, the area of vort in the Pacific ends up back in the SW Caribbean per the latest runs.


Yep it is.

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Quoting RitaEvac:


Will be interesting to see how the rains play out


There was some talk among local mets over the last day or two that the CoC (what ever is left of it) could stay inland, which would cause a lot more rain and further north as well. You in the Golden Triangle? I'm in DFW
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
#207

Minors are surely around. Not to mention the other unacceptable comments.
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When models show a strong cane for a couple of runs then suddenly back off completely to nothing 9/10 times means it ain't happening folks. Both the ECMWF and the GFS will most likely be eating crow.
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Quoting SQUAWK:

Dude, if I were you, I would seriously consider removing that link. The language could get you banned for good.


I think a disclaimer would work and would be most appreciated by some.
Member Since: September 9, 2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 3414
Quoting tornadodude:


LOL


about your four tickets. You could just get a blanket and lie down on them. Make you look like a G.
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2 PM Discussion of Caribbean.They have a low at 11N-82W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
RESIDUAL CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A DISSIPATED STATIONARY
FRONT IS SOUTH OF CUBA FROM 17N-20N BETWEEN 75W-85W. A
QUASI-STATIONARY 1008 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN
NEAR 11N82W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-14N
BETWEEN 76W-84W. A 1010 MB LOW IS LOCATED IN THE GULF OF
HONDURAS NEAR 17N88W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE
CENTER. THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W HAS MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER...
HOWEVER ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NOTED. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADEWINDS
ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING IS OVER THE WESTERN AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN...WITH
RIDGING PREVAILING IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. SIGNIFICANT UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 70W. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. EXPECT THE LOW IN THE GULF
OF HONDURAS TO DISSIPATE WHILE THE LOW IN THE SW CARIBBEAN TO
REMAIN STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

Link
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GFS Shear forecast at 72hrs:

Member Since: September 9, 2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 3414
Quoting tornadodude:



Dude, if I were you, I would seriously consider removing that link. The language could get you banned for good.
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Quoting Floodman:


LOL...College Student indeed!


LOL
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8201
TPC/TAFB 72 hour surface forecast


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Quoting tornadodude:


Wunderwaffles


LOL...College Student indeed!
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Quoting Floodman:


That movement has more of a northward component to it than I would have thought given the earlier track...


Will be interesting to see how the rains play out
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Quoting RitaEvac:
Front edge of Rain from Rick in the Pacific are coming in from Mexico...



That movement has more of a northward component to it than I would have thought given the earlier track...
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.
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8201
Front edge of Rain from Rick in the Pacific are coming in from Mexico...

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Quoting RitaEvac:
People were looking at the models seeing Florida in the path, also Masters said anywhere from Western Cuba to south Florida was probably fueling the minds of a storm coming for Florida


Climatologically speaking that is the norm for this sort of feature...this time of year brought us Kate and Wilma, both Carib storms and late in the season...if you'll notice, there are only a few here saying words like storm/S florida/landfall; the problem with writing off the season is that it isn;t over yet, despite the trof movement and the pattern appearing to be a later fall type; the water is still hot, the MJO is doing that upward motion thing. While a storm is unlikely, it is still very possible...
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Quoting hydrus:
Hey Floodman, you were not kidding when you mentioned the poof word becoming popular.


Apparently some folks liked it enough to keep it around. I got banned for using it, but my usage was a little different and I said things like:

"That's it, you're an idiot! **POOF!**

The admin took umbrage at my militance and there you have it...LOL
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TheCaneWhisperer:
Not necessary to watch a boiling pot of water 24/7. Why waste the manpower and money to run the models when they can just restart them in a few days when there may be something to look at. Budget's were being cut right?


very good point, also 94L is still being tracked
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Quoting TheCaneWhisperer:
Not necessary to watch a boiling pot of water 24/7. Why waste the manpower and money to run the models when they can just restart them in a few days when there may be something to look at. Budget's were being cut right?


Not sure how the NCEP works but if that's the case, its so so.
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Not necessary to watch a boiling pot of water 24/7. Why waste the manpower and money to run the models when they can just restart them in a few days when there may be something to look at. Budget's were being cut right?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
As I mentioned earlier, I believe the Western Carribean disturbance (94L) will be the dominate one.
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7340
Quoting Floodman:


Not much, man... watching some interesting little swirls...and thwe weather too
Hey Floodman, you were not kidding when you mentioned the poof word becoming popular.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20507
Quoting Weather456:


Post of the day.....The disturbance was not even expected to develop until atleast the weekend, so these conclusions being made about 94L, I just don't know where they are coming from.


They are coming from those who like to antagonize and have ZERO patience.
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People were looking at the models seeing Florida in the path, also Masters said anywhere from Western Cuba to south Florida was probably fueling the minds of a storm coming for Florida
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Quoting Weather456:


Some are not even realizing, the area of vort in the Pacific ends up back in the SW Caribbean per the latest runs.


yes you are right
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
These take time.. patience. People are jumping the gun always for the past few years on current status via satellite frames.


Post of the day.....The disturbance was not even expected to develop until atleast the weekend, so these conclusions being made about 94L, I just don't know where they are coming from.
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Quoting hydrus:
Yes, then a massive blizzard. The Day After Tomorrow Part 2..


Or two days after tomorrow.
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Quoting NEwxguy:
179. RitaEvac

Poof!!!


POOF
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Quoting Drakoen:


Exactly and the dynamic computer forecast models indicate all 850mb vorticity maximum to end up in the Caribbean.


Some are not even realizing, the area of vort in the Pacific ends up back in the SW Caribbean per the latest runs.
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Quoting RitaEvac:


Floodman! whats happening


Not much, man... watching some interesting little swirls...and the weather too
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Quoting RitaEvac:
I'm sorry.... lets living it up, guys looks to be a serious threat of a storm in the Carribbean this weekend and heading towards Florida, is that better?!
Yes, then a massive blizzard. The Day After Tomorrow Part 2..
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20507
These take time.. patience. People are jumping the gun always for the past few years on current status via satellite frames.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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