Western Caribbean disturabance 94L bringing heavy rains; Lupit's path uncertain

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:39 PM GMT on October 21, 2009

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A broad 1008 mb low pressure area has developed near 10N 84W, inland over Costa Rica. NHC designated this disturbance Invest 94L yesterday, but is no longer issuing model products for the disturbance. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed a broad circulation around the low, with top winds of about 30 - 35 mph over the extreme Southwestern Caribbean. Obviously, the center will have to move over water in order for significant development to occur, but recent satellite loops show that the low is pulling in an increasing amount of moisture from the Pacific, leading to heavy rains over Costa Rica and western Panama. Wind shear is low, about 5 - 10 knots, and there is deep layer of high moisture over the entire Western Caribbean, which both favor development if the center moves over water. Rainfall estimates from the Navy Research Lab indicate that 94L dumped up to three inches of rain over portions of Panama, Costa Rica, and Nicaragua over the past 24 hours.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Invest 94L.

The forecast for 94L
Wind shear is expected to remain in the low to moderate range, 5 - 15 knots, for the next five days in the Western Caribbean. Sea Surface temperatures are very warm, 29°C, and there is plenty of moisture through a deep layer of the atmosphere. The only major impediment to 94L becoming a tropical storm later this week would seem to be proximity to land. At present, only the GFS model develops 94L, but weeks it very weak. The GFS predicts the storm will take a north then northwesterly track across western Cuba early next week, then into the Gulf Coast of Florida later in the week. However, it is equally likely that 94L will stay bottled up in the Western Caribbean for the foreseeable future. I'll continue to give 94L a medium (30 - 50% chance) of eventually becoming a tropical depression over the next ten days. NHC is giving 94L a low (less than 30% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Friday, which is a good forecast. Given 94L's current state of disorganization and location over land, Saturday is the earliest we should expect it to organize into a tropical depression. NHC has not put the Hurricane Hunters on call to fly 94L Thursday or Friday.

Rick misses Baja, hits Mainland Mexico near Mazatlan
Tropical Storm Rick made landfall near 10am EDT in Mainland Mexico just north of Mazatlan. Top winds measured at the Matatlan airport during landfall were 39 mph, gusting to 61 mph. The primary threat from Rick will be heavy rains of up to six inches in the mountains near Mazatlan. Rick's remains should being at most one inch of rain to south-central Texas on Thursday.

Typhoon Lupit weakens and slows; path now uncertain
Typhoon Lupit, now a Category 1 storm with 90 mph winds, continues to have difficulty dealing with a slug of dry air it wrapped into its core two days ago. Microwave imagery showed that the typhoon was missing a portion of its northern eyewall this morning. However, recent Infrared satellite loops show that the eye has warmed and become more distinct, a sign of intensification. Also, the cloud tops of Lupit's eyewall have cooled in recent hours, signaling that they are more vigorous and reaching higher into the atmosphere. Lupit is in an environment favorable for re-intensification, with low wind shear of 5 - 10 knots and warm sea surface temperatures of 28 - 29°C. It would not be a surprise to see Lupit intensify into a major Category 3 typhoon again by Thursday, though the official forecast from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center is less aggressive, calling for a Category 2 storm by tomorrow. Even in its current weakened state, Lupit is a prodigious rain-maker, with rainfall rates exceeding one inch per hour near its core (Figure 2).

The future path of the typhoon is now highly uncertain, as steering currents are weakening and the storm is slowing down. A weakness in the ridge of high pressure steering Lupit west-southwest is developing, and several models (ECMWF, GFS) now predict recurvature of the typhoon before it reaches the Philippines. This optimistic scenario is counterbalanced by the very pessimistic forecasts of the UKMET and NOGAPS models, which take the typhoon inland over the northern portion of Luzon 1 - 2 days from now, and then stall the storm for 2 - 3 days. This would cause a major flooding disaster, as the soils are already saturated and the dams completely full from the 20+ inches of rain dumped by Super Typhoon Parma in early October. If Lupit stalls for several days over Luzon, it would dump another 20+ inches of rain, triggering massive flash flooding and life-threatening mudslides.

Storm chased Jim Edds is in northern Luzon to document Lupit's landfall, and has some interesting photos of the preparations the residents are taking.


Figure 2. Rainfall rates observed by a polar-orbiting microwave satellite at at 10:24 UTC Wednesday 10/21/09. Lupit is expected to dump rains in excess of one inch per hour (red and pink colors) along its path. Up to 12 inches of rain in a 24-hour period are expected from the typhoon. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey..

I'll have an update Thursday morning.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Patrap:
As the Blog turns,will return..after these Public Service announcements.

Quoting Floodman:
LOL

I got nasty WU Mail from a couple of trolls that thought I was questioning, their, ummm...well, you know...

No, nothing so complicated as all that...simply a flick of the wrist, a whispered incantation and **POOF!**, you're gone
Yes, POOF! another 4 letter catchphrase for The 21st Century. Proper stress relieving breathing technique, in through the nose. out through the mouth. Repeat if necessary.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21416
Quoting Floodman:
Gee, TD, looks like central Colorado to western Nebraska is the place to be if you like nasty winter precip...


yeah, that or Minnesota
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
I am very grumpy with this season and ready for it to be over with. I have been watching and tracking these fascinating storms for about 23 years now. This year ranks near the top of my list as most boring. No disrespect to everyone on this board.
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Back to work now LOL

Catch you all later.
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Quoting reedzone:
Point being, we don't know, this will take days to develop, if anything even develops. We can forecast, but will never be 100% right. This is why I get on downcasters and even some wishcasters, they make assumptions that something will or will not happen and anyone who comes against that assumption, gets bashed for stating a personal opinion.
Pot do you hear me? This is Kettle.
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Gee, TD, looks like central Colorado to western Nebraska is the place to be if you like nasty winter precip...
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Quoting kmanislander:
Good afternoon.

I sense some frustration on the blog with all the waiting around for days to see if anything would come of 94L only to have it meander off to the Pacific.

BUT, the SW Caribbean may not be done yet. I just checked a couple of obs that I find interesting so here they are.

1. Puerto Limon, Costa Rica, located near 9.6 N and 83 W ( on the Caribbean coast ) NNE winds and a falling pressure of 1006.8 mb.

2. San Andres island near 12.6 N and 81.7 W , ESE winds and a falling pressure of 1007.5 mb

In the famous words of the great one " it aint over till its over "


Nice reasoning and love how you can tell the facts as you see them without throwing insults or snide remarks at those who might disagree.
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Quoting kmanislander:
Good afternoon.

I sense some frustration on the blog with all the waiting around for days to see if anything would come of 94L only to have it meander off to the Pacific.

BUT, the SW Caribbean may not be done yet. I just checked a couple of obs that I find interesting so here they are.

1. Puerto Limon, Costa Rica, located near 9.6 N and 83 W ( on the Caribbean coast ) NNE winds and a falling pressure of 1006.8 mb.

2. San Andres island near 12.6 N and 81.7 W , ESE winds and a falling pressure of 1007.5 mb

In the famous words of the great one " it aint over till its over "


Exactly...oddly, the plots you give outline the ubiquitous "broad area of low pressure".

A little over 40 days til the calendar end of the season with plenty of Heat Potential and an upward MJO...the Carib could get very interesting with a quickness.

I think a number of deep breaths and some patience is called for
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Quoting kmanislander:
Good afternoon.

I sense some frustration on the blog with all the waiting around for days to see if anything would come of 94L only to have it meander off to the Pacific.

BUT, the SW Caribbean may not be done yet. I just checked a couple of obs that I find interesting so here they are.

1. Puerto Limon, Costa Rica, located near 9.6 N and 83 W ( on the Caribbean coast ) NNE winds and a falling pressure of 1006.8 mb.

2. San Andres island near 12.6 N and 81.7 W , ESE winds and a falling pressure of 1007.5 mb

In the famous words of the great one " it aint over till its over "


Very good analysis Kman, Hurricane Season is not over yet.
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Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
Quoting presslord:


HAHAHAHAHA!!!!!!!!!!!! BWAHABWAHAHABWAHAHA!!!!! ROTFLMFAO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
What have you been drinkin'?!?!?!?!?!


Oh, that's right. You have it all figured out, don't ya?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Good afternoon.

I sense some frustration on the blog with all the waiting around for days to see if anything would come of 94L only to have it meander off to the Pacific.

BUT, the SW Caribbean may not be done yet. I just checked a couple of obs that I find interesting so here they are.

1. Puerto Limon, Costa Rica, located near 9.6 N and 83 W ( on the Caribbean coast ) NNE winds and a falling pressure of 1006.8 mb.

2. San Andres island near 12.6 N and 81.7 W , ESE winds and a falling pressure of 1007.5 mb

In the famous words of the great one " it aint over till its over "
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Patrap:


You assume 99% of the time sport.
Lighten up and enjoy a Fresca.

Everyone's entitled to an Opinion here.


That's what I'm trying to say, yet people get bashed for stating their opinions. I don't assume, I give chances and state possibilities that can be either wrong or right. I was wrong last night about the EURO coming back, however, there is a possibility that the EURO could bring the potential system back on the maps. It's all about possibilities, not un true facts.
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LOL

I got nasty WU Mail from a couple of trolls that thought I was questioning, their, ummm...well, you know...

No, nothing so complicated as all that...simply a flick of the wrist, a whispered incantation and **POOF!**, you're gone
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
275. IKE
Tampa afternoon discussion...

"UNCERTAINTY REMAINS FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK AS A TROPICAL
FEATURE SEEMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE EXTREME WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND
MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF WATERS BY MONDAY. GFS/ECMWF HAS
BACKED DOWN CONSIDERABLY FROM EARLIER SOLUTIONS REGARDING THIS
FEATURE AND NOW SHOW A MUCH WEAKER LOW...MAYBE EVEN BECOMING A WAVE
BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND BRINGING INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS
FLORIDA.
GIVEN THE PERSISTENCE OF THIS FEATURE IN GUIDANCE WILL GO
AHEAD AND INCREASE TUE/WED AFTERNOON POPS TO LOW/END SCT 30
PERCENT."
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting reedzone:
Point being, we don't know, this will take days to develop, if anything even develops. We can forecast, but will never be 100% right. This is why I get on downcasters and even some wishcasters, they make assumptions that something will or will not happen and anyone who comes against that assumption, gets bashed for stating a personal opinion.


You assume 99% of the time sport.
Lighten up and enjoy a Fresca.

Everyone's entitled to an Opinion here.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128667
Point being, we don't know, this will take days to develop, if anything even develops. We can forecast, but will never be 100% right. This is why I get on downcasters and even some wishcasters, they make assumptions that something will or will not happen and anyone who comes against that assumption, gets bashed for stating a personal opinion.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting markymark1973:
well see you next year then?
Yeah... afraid so. :) At least there should be more to talk about. This year the Tropics have been flat lined in the Atlantic basin.


well I assume you wont be back til next season then since it is so boring here right now? have a good winter! (: cya next season
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
Quoting Floodman:


That you have been "disappeared" from the blog; ignored...if I **POOF!** you, I've ignored you...



lol
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Quoting earthlydragonfly:
Ok..... What does POOF mean?


Didn't any of you see the Wizard of OZ. The Good Witch always said, "Poof you're gone." Just wave the magic wand. If it were only that easy. My kids always said that when someone annoyed them.
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well see you next year then?
Yeah... afraid so. :) At least there should be more to talk about. This year the Tropics have been flat lined in the Atlantic basin.
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Quoting presslord:


HAHAHAHAHA!!!!!!!!!!!! BWAHABWAHAHABWAHAHA!!!!! ROTFLMFAO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
What have you been drinkin'?!?!?!?!?!


xD
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
Quoting TheCaneWhisperer:
Complex before, now with two low centers, it's no surprise the models are flip flopping.

With situations like this, sometimes ya just have to sit back and let a few things play out before you start making assumptions.


HAHAHAHAHA!!!!!!!!!!!! BWAHABWAHAHABWAHAHA!!!!! ROTFLMFAO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
What have you been drinkin'?!?!?!?!?!
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10492
Quoting reedzone:


I'm gonna also put you in your place if this storm forms, conditions matter, but things can and do change. Stop the downcasting, your really not changing peoples minds and you're certainly not god.
Reed, We all know that Markymark is GOD, and will fatigue Mother Nature into compliance with his ubiquitous wisdom, strength and power...
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21416
My impression is that none of these models have a clue what is about to happen this time of the year. It's like trying to figure out where lightning is going to strike.
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Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128667
Complex before, now with two low centers, it's no surprise the models are flip flopping.

With situations like this, sometimes ya just have to sit back and let a few things play out before you start making assumptions.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
As the Blog turns,will return..after these Public Service announcements.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128667
Quoting Seastep:
Modified my post to correct the "one L" to "one Z" LOL. Don't even know what would come up with two L's.


haha I noticed that when I read your link
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
Quoting earthlydragonfly:


Thanks Flood!!


Nada, man...anytime! LOL
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Modified my post to correct the "one L" to "one Z" LOL. Don't even know what would come up with two L's.
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Quoting markymark1973:

Mother Nature herself couldn't go against these horrid unfavorable conditions this 2009 hurricane season. It's time to look on to 2010.


I'm gonna also put you in your place if this storm forms, conditions matter, but things can and do change. Stop the downcasting, your really not changing peoples minds and you're certainly not god.
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Quoting IKE:


Not much model support left for the western Caribbean.


Looks to be all quiet on the western front, at as least far as the models are showing, for now! They sure have flip-flopped on this.
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BBL gonna help NHC pack up for the winter.
Member Since: September 6, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 3759
Quoting markymark1973:

Mother Nature herself couldn't go against these horrid unfavorable conditions this 2009 hurricane season. It's time to look on to 2010.


well see you next year then?
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
254. IKE
Quoting InTheCone:
Speaking of poof...

12z ECMWF


Not much model support left for the western Caribbean.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting tornadofan:


I dunno - shows a pretty big storm north of the Great Lakes...


Maybe it'll be sub-tropical - LOL!!
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Quoting Floodman:


That you have been "disappeared" from the blog; ignored...if I **POOF!** you, I've ignored you...


Thanks Flood!!
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Quoting reedzone:
Markymark, just stop, stop the downcasting, Mother Nature is NOT gonna follow your orders, just stop it while your ahead.

Mother Nature herself couldn't go against these horrid unfavorable conditions this 2009 hurricane season. It's time to look on to 2010.
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But hey Seastep- great advice, thanks!
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
Quoting InTheCone:
Speaking of poof...

12z ECMWF


I dunno - shows a pretty big storm north of the Great Lakes...
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248. IKE
...
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting earthlydragonfly:
Ok..... What does POOF mean?


That you have been "disappeared" from the blog; ignored...if I **POOF!** you, I've ignored you...
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Speaking of poof...

12z ECMWF
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Ok..... What does POOF mean?
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Quoting Seastep:
Not a problem tornadodude. Seemed out of character to me, but hey, you are in college. My real point was that linking to something like that is not necessarily forbidden if a warning is given like "WARNING: Graphic Language"

Free speech and expression is to be cherished. TEHO. But common courtesy helps support it.

It reminds me of an slow period discussion relating to my daughter. She was researching cooking with a friend and they put in sizle dot com. Thankfully with only one L. But, neither site had a front page warning and a "click here to enter." She would have never clicked. She asks before clicking even if, say, disney prompts.

If anyone wants the full story, go here. Starts at comment 440.

WARNING: Graphic Presslord photo that started it all!!!!

If you're really adventurous, you can go to the sites and see what I'm talking about. :)


haha well thanks, yeah, I know I should give a warning for that, but didnt realize what it said, ha hmm, to check it out or not :P
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
HPC Extended Forecast Discussion


OVER THE TROPICS THE 00Z ECMWF EXHIBITS ANOTHER CONTINUITY CHANGE
IN DOWNPLAYING ANY POTENTIAL NWRN CARIBBEAN TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT
THAT PRIOR RUNS HAD ADVERTISED. THE 00Z GFS NOW DEPICTS A WEAK
SYSTEM WHILE REMAINING GUIDANCE IS RATHER ILL DEFINED. THE FINAL
HPC FCST BRINGS A WEAK FEATURE TOWARD WRN CUBA BY DAY 7 WED. THIS
IS ABOUT A DAY SLOWER THAN YESTERDAY BASED UPON LATEST AND LESS
ORGANIZED SATELLITE TRENDS AFTER COORDINATION WITH TPC.


HPC Graphics
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242. xcool



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Not a problem tornadodude. Seemed out of character to me, but hey, you are in college. My real point was that linking to something like that is not necessarily forbidden if a warning is given like "WARNING: Graphic Language"

Free speech and expression is to be cherished. TEHO. But common courtesy helps support it.

It reminds me of an slow period discussion relating to my daughter. She was researching cooking with a friend and they put in sizle dot com. Thankfully with only one Z. But, neither site had a front page warning and a "click here to enter." She would have never clicked. She asks before clicking even if, say, disney prompts.

If anyone wants the full story, go here. Starts at comment 440.

WARNING: Graphic Presslord photo that started it all!!!!

If you're really adventurous, you can go to the sites and see what I'm talking about. :)
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*waiting on the ban* haha
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
Quoting TheCaneWhisperer:


No need to apologize, I thought it was odd of you, that is why I only brought it to your attention.


well thanks for letting me know! I didnt realize what all it said :P
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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