Western Caribbean disturabance 94L bringing heavy rains; Lupit's path uncertain

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:39 PM GMT on October 21, 2009

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A broad 1008 mb low pressure area has developed near 10N 84W, inland over Costa Rica. NHC designated this disturbance Invest 94L yesterday, but is no longer issuing model products for the disturbance. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed a broad circulation around the low, with top winds of about 30 - 35 mph over the extreme Southwestern Caribbean. Obviously, the center will have to move over water in order for significant development to occur, but recent satellite loops show that the low is pulling in an increasing amount of moisture from the Pacific, leading to heavy rains over Costa Rica and western Panama. Wind shear is low, about 5 - 10 knots, and there is deep layer of high moisture over the entire Western Caribbean, which both favor development if the center moves over water. Rainfall estimates from the Navy Research Lab indicate that 94L dumped up to three inches of rain over portions of Panama, Costa Rica, and Nicaragua over the past 24 hours.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Invest 94L.

The forecast for 94L
Wind shear is expected to remain in the low to moderate range, 5 - 15 knots, for the next five days in the Western Caribbean. Sea Surface temperatures are very warm, 29°C, and there is plenty of moisture through a deep layer of the atmosphere. The only major impediment to 94L becoming a tropical storm later this week would seem to be proximity to land. At present, only the GFS model develops 94L, but weeks it very weak. The GFS predicts the storm will take a north then northwesterly track across western Cuba early next week, then into the Gulf Coast of Florida later in the week. However, it is equally likely that 94L will stay bottled up in the Western Caribbean for the foreseeable future. I'll continue to give 94L a medium (30 - 50% chance) of eventually becoming a tropical depression over the next ten days. NHC is giving 94L a low (less than 30% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Friday, which is a good forecast. Given 94L's current state of disorganization and location over land, Saturday is the earliest we should expect it to organize into a tropical depression. NHC has not put the Hurricane Hunters on call to fly 94L Thursday or Friday.

Rick misses Baja, hits Mainland Mexico near Mazatlan
Tropical Storm Rick made landfall near 10am EDT in Mainland Mexico just north of Mazatlan. Top winds measured at the Matatlan airport during landfall were 39 mph, gusting to 61 mph. The primary threat from Rick will be heavy rains of up to six inches in the mountains near Mazatlan. Rick's remains should being at most one inch of rain to south-central Texas on Thursday.

Typhoon Lupit weakens and slows; path now uncertain
Typhoon Lupit, now a Category 1 storm with 90 mph winds, continues to have difficulty dealing with a slug of dry air it wrapped into its core two days ago. Microwave imagery showed that the typhoon was missing a portion of its northern eyewall this morning. However, recent Infrared satellite loops show that the eye has warmed and become more distinct, a sign of intensification. Also, the cloud tops of Lupit's eyewall have cooled in recent hours, signaling that they are more vigorous and reaching higher into the atmosphere. Lupit is in an environment favorable for re-intensification, with low wind shear of 5 - 10 knots and warm sea surface temperatures of 28 - 29°C. It would not be a surprise to see Lupit intensify into a major Category 3 typhoon again by Thursday, though the official forecast from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center is less aggressive, calling for a Category 2 storm by tomorrow. Even in its current weakened state, Lupit is a prodigious rain-maker, with rainfall rates exceeding one inch per hour near its core (Figure 2).

The future path of the typhoon is now highly uncertain, as steering currents are weakening and the storm is slowing down. A weakness in the ridge of high pressure steering Lupit west-southwest is developing, and several models (ECMWF, GFS) now predict recurvature of the typhoon before it reaches the Philippines. This optimistic scenario is counterbalanced by the very pessimistic forecasts of the UKMET and NOGAPS models, which take the typhoon inland over the northern portion of Luzon 1 - 2 days from now, and then stall the storm for 2 - 3 days. This would cause a major flooding disaster, as the soils are already saturated and the dams completely full from the 20+ inches of rain dumped by Super Typhoon Parma in early October. If Lupit stalls for several days over Luzon, it would dump another 20+ inches of rain, triggering massive flash flooding and life-threatening mudslides.

Storm chased Jim Edds is in northern Luzon to document Lupit's landfall, and has some interesting photos of the preparations the residents are taking.


Figure 2. Rainfall rates observed by a polar-orbiting microwave satellite at at 10:24 UTC Wednesday 10/21/09. Lupit is expected to dump rains in excess of one inch per hour (red and pink colors) along its path. Up to 12 inches of rain in a 24-hour period are expected from the typhoon. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey..

I'll have an update Thursday morning.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Weather456:
Good afternoon to all


Hey Weather!!
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Quoting tornadodude:
483. ST0RMT0PSmom 7:25 AM GMT on July 01, 2006 Hide this comment.
STORMTOP IM GOING TO SPANK YOU, YOU BAD BOY. IVE RAISED YOU LIKE A BABY ALL YOUR LIFE. HIS OFFICE IS IN HIS SANDBOX FOLKS. THIS HAS BEEN AN OFFICIAL STORMTOP SPANKING....HEADER 001236


Posted By: STORMTOP at 4:54 AM GMT on July 01, 2006.
THIS IS A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE STORMTOPS WEATHER OFFICE AT MIDNIGHT CDT...THE DISTURBANCE LOCATED ABOUT 400 MILES SOUTH OF LAFAYETTE LOUISIANA HAS BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED AND THE SPIRAL RAIN BANDS ARE BEGINNING TO WRAP AROUND THE MLC...WIND SHEAR HAS LESSENED SINCE YESTERDAY AND PRESSURES ARE STILL FALLING IN THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF TONIGHT...SATELLITE PICS IN THE LAST FEW FRAMES INDICATE THE MLC IS WORKING ITSELF DOWN TO THE SURFACE...AND AIRFORCE RECON PLANE IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM SATURDAY EVENING UNLESS CONDITIONS WARRANT AND EARLIER FLIGHT...THE SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO STRENGHTEN ONCE IT REACHES TROPICAL DEPRESSION STATUS...THE SSTs ARE VERY WARM IN THIS PART OF THE GULF TONIGHT...ALL INTERESTS ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM IN CASE IT DEVELOPS INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY MY OFFICE AT 8AM CDT UNLESS CONDITIONS WARRANT AND EALIER RELEASE..........000012


Hmm...odd, looking back in my collective memory we did not have any tropical development the first two weeks of July, 2006.

Guess my memory serves me wrong, then
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This answers some questions we have had multiple times in here when discussing radar beam height with distance...

Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12463
Good afternoon to all
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335. 786
NRL still lists 94L as well as 93L

94L I am seeing it as 94LINVEST.25kts-1007mb-125N-833W.

Link
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Quoting Gustavike:
The tropical cyclone formation in the Caribbean depend primarily on the shear and proximity to land disturbance. While October is a month of great danger to Cuba for hurricane affected Caribbean, for 10 years the country does not suffer the impact of a hurricane on this date.


Gustav, you have my father's name where are you located?
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Quoting AwakeInMaryland:

How/where did you FIND this stuff?
(I know I said I wouldn't come on in afternoons anymore but waiting for son EvilDamien to call from Hawaii. Can't. Stop. Laughing.)


here, just search the archives, this was like 3 or 4 days after I joined.
posts 483 and 487

link
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Quoting tornadodude:
487. ST0RMT0PSmom 7:38 AM GMT on July 01, 2006 Hide this comment.
STORMTOP IVE TOLD YOU NOT TO POST ON HERE YOU NAUGHTY SON! I WILL HAVE PAPA STORMTOP DEAL WITH YOU AS SOON AS I RUN YOUR COMPUTER OVER WITH MY CAR.

How/where did you FIND this stuff?
(I know I said I wouldn't come on in afternoons anymore but waiting for son EvilDamien to call from Hawaii. Can't. Stop. Laughing.)
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Quoting hcubed:
Anybody have links to Mexican radars?

Trying to see the route of Rick.


http://smn.cna.gob.mx/radares/radares.html

They never work when I want to see a storm and they're not working now
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487. ST0RMT0PSmom 7:38 AM GMT on July 01, 2006 Hide this comment.
STORMTOP IVE TOLD YOU NOT TO POST ON HERE YOU NAUGHTY SON! I WILL HAVE PAPA STORMTOP DEAL WITH YOU AS SOON AS I RUN YOUR COMPUTER OVER WITH MY CAR.
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329. xcool
AL, 94, 2009102100, , BEST, 0, 125N, 823W, 25, 1007, DB, 0,
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting Grothar:

I. Can't. Stop. Laughing. Gonna' be sick, LOL.
Speaking of sick, anyone know how Orca and SWMBO are?
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327. 786
sorry not deactivated - best track right now is 12.5N-83.3W
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483. ST0RMT0PSmom 7:25 AM GMT on July 01, 2006 Hide this comment.
STORMTOP IM GOING TO SPANK YOU, YOU BAD BOY. IVE RAISED YOU LIKE A BABY ALL YOUR LIFE. HIS OFFICE IS IN HIS SANDBOX FOLKS. THIS HAS BEEN AN OFFICIAL STORMTOP SPANKING....HEADER 001236


Posted By: STORMTOP at 4:54 AM GMT on July 01, 2006.
THIS IS A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE STORMTOPS WEATHER OFFICE AT MIDNIGHT CDT...THE DISTURBANCE LOCATED ABOUT 400 MILES SOUTH OF LAFAYETTE LOUISIANA HAS BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED AND THE SPIRAL RAIN BANDS ARE BEGINNING TO WRAP AROUND THE MLC...WIND SHEAR HAS LESSENED SINCE YESTERDAY AND PRESSURES ARE STILL FALLING IN THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF TONIGHT...SATELLITE PICS IN THE LAST FEW FRAMES INDICATE THE MLC IS WORKING ITSELF DOWN TO THE SURFACE...AND AIRFORCE RECON PLANE IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM SATURDAY EVENING UNLESS CONDITIONS WARRANT AND EARLIER FLIGHT...THE SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO STRENGHTEN ONCE IT REACHES TROPICAL DEPRESSION STATUS...THE SSTs ARE VERY WARM IN THIS PART OF THE GULF TONIGHT...ALL INTERESTS ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM IN CASE IT DEVELOPS INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY MY OFFICE AT 8AM CDT UNLESS CONDITIONS WARRANT AND EALIER RELEASE..........000012
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The CaneWhisperer....obviously I wasn't cleasr...you have explanatory WU Mail...
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10492
323. 786
94L.INVEST/vis/geo/1km_zoom
20091021.1945.goes12.x.vis1km_high.94LINVEST.25kts-1007mb-125N-833W.100pc.jpg |

deativated, but still alive!
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The tropical cyclone formation in the Caribbean depend primarily on the shear and proximity to land disturbance. While October is a month of great danger to Cuba for hurricane affected Caribbean, for 10 years the country does not suffer the impact of a hurricane on this date.
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Quoting Grothar:


Ill be wearing a stylish black leather jacket, with bug eye sun glasses. =)
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Just checking in. 94L is gone??

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Quoting jeffs713:

Did you break into WS/JFV's bathroom?


Caught, you're to quick!!!
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Quoting Grothar:


That is far too remidful of someone else...I wonder what handel he'll come up with next
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Quoting Grothar:
Just thought you all might want to see my costume for Halloween. I hope most of you get it!!!


LOL

anyone else want another good laugh?
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Quoting Grothar:

Did you break into WS/JFV's bathroom?
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looking at CIMMS 850 it seems like it's wanting to consolidate into a single circulation. That could be why we're seeing the pressure drops pointed out by Kman.
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Just thought you all might want to see my costume for Halloween. I hope most of you get it!!!
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Quoting NEwxguy:
afternoon,to all,I see the stuff in the W Carib.is not showing much today.Pretty much what has happened all year,not a very friendly environment for TC developement.I still wonder if there is one last little surprise around the corner to end the season.We've had bigger storms here in New England this month.


The area in the SW Caribbean is not done yet
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afternoon,to all,I see the stuff in the W Carib.is not showing much today.Pretty much what has happened all year,not a very friendly environment for TC developement.I still wonder if there is one last little surprise around the corner to end the season.We've had bigger storms here in New England this month.
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Does the AOI in the SW Carribean look like its getting better organized and moving a little N?? JMO
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A little better defined compared to my photo this morning. Drifted a little SW, IMO.


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Quoting weathermanwannabe:
On a weather note, as Tampa noted this am, that plume of dry air cascading down from Florida this morning is in fact starting to lift out so it looks like plenty of moisture will remain in the Western Carib in the short-term.


It sure rained enough last night and this morning.
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Quoting Skyepony:
Models have been getting consistent with a little swirl coming through the Bahamas & just off the coast or thru east FL over the next 5 days.. could use the rain.


Probably will be the swirl in the central Atlantic.

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306. Skyepony (Mod)
Models have been getting consistent with a little swirl coming through the Bahamas & just off the coast or thru east FL over the next 5 days.. could use the rain.
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On a weather note, as Tampa noted this am, that plume of dry air cascading down from Florida this morning is in fact starting to lift out so it looks like plenty of moisture will remain in the Western Carib in the short-term.
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Quoting Floodman:


You certainly were...I was adding my two cents...


Cool - I'm blog-challenged sometimes.
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303. Halyn
"If anyone wants the full story, go here. Starts at comment 440.
WARNING: Graphic Presslord photo that started it all!!!!
If you're really adventurous, you can go to the sites and see what I'm talking about. :)"

ROFL .. just got online and was innocently reading prior posts when I saw this .. couldn't help myself .. had to go see!! My, oh my!! guess my only question is "how many proposals did you get, Press?? " :-D
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Quoting Dakster:


I never noticed... Who could you be talking about?


LOL...my buddy, the Dakster
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Quoting tornadofan:


I thought I was paying him a complement?


You certainly were...I was adding my two cents...
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290. Floodman 3:45 PM EDT on October 21, 2009 but kman is one of the best here...he respects others, backs his statements with facts and he has a vested interest in the Tropics...above all that, he doesn't have too bloated an opinion of himself,

Second That........Too many egomaniacs on here at times who just like to argue or insult others for the sake of doing it.....This is a learning Blog at it's best and should not be a place for cyber-bullies.
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Quoting Floodman:


Not meaning to sound too condescending, but kman is one of the best here...he respects others, backs his statements with facts and he has a vested interest in the Tropics...above all that, he doesn't have too bloated an opinion of himself, always a plus in here (there tends to be a little arrogance in here from time to time...just saying)


I never noticed... Who could you be talking about?
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Quoting markymark1973:
I am very grumpy with this season and ready for it to be over with. I have been watching and tracking storms for about 23 years now. This year ranks near the top of my list as most boring for tracking these fascinating storms. No disrespect to anyone for being such a downcaster all the time.
There are a lot of people who read this blog who are still putting there lives back together from recent hurricane disasters. I am sure your ( downcasting ) is a welcome read.:).
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21492
297. JLPR
nice swirl =P

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Quoting Floodman:


Not meaning to sound too condescending, but kman is one of the best here...he respects others, backs his statements with facts and he has a vested interest in the Tropics...above all that, he doesn't have too bloated an opinion of himself, always a plus in here (there tends to be a little arrogance in here from time to time...just saying)


I thought I was paying him a complement?
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Anybody have links to Mexican radars?

Trying to see the route of Rick.
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Same gray mare from this morning.

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Quoting ElConando:
BBL gonna help NHC pack up for the winter.


Are you back in Miami... I could meet you there. I've got boxes and some tape already.
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Quoting seminolesfan:
Pot do you hear me? This is Kettle.


I admit, I bash downcasters for stating un true facts, but this mornign someone gave an opinion that he thinks the season is over, and I respected that because it was his opinion and he is subject to it. I don't bash anyone who gives opinions, I simple just reply them saying that I don't agree with it but anything can happen.
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291. beell
.
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Quoting tornadofan:


Nice reasoning and love how you can tell the facts as you see them without throwing insults or snide remarks at those who might disagree.


Not meaning to sound too condescending, but kman is one of the best here...he respects others, backs his statements with facts and he has a vested interest in the Tropics...above all that, he doesn't have too bloated an opinion of himself, always a plus in here (there tends to be a little arrogance in here from time to time...just saying)
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Quoting Patrap:
As the Blog turns,will return..after these Public Service announcements.

Quoting Floodman:
LOL

I got nasty WU Mail from a couple of trolls that thought I was questioning, their, ummm...well, you know...

No, nothing so complicated as all that...simply a flick of the wrist, a whispered incantation and **POOF!**, you're gone
Yes, POOF! another 4 letter catchphrase for The 21st Century. Proper stress relieving breathing technique, in through the nose. out through the mouth. Repeat if necessary.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21492

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.