Western Caribbean disturabance 94L bringing heavy rains; Lupit's path uncertain

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:39 PM GMT on October 21, 2009

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A broad 1008 mb low pressure area has developed near 10N 84W, inland over Costa Rica. NHC designated this disturbance Invest 94L yesterday, but is no longer issuing model products for the disturbance. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed a broad circulation around the low, with top winds of about 30 - 35 mph over the extreme Southwestern Caribbean. Obviously, the center will have to move over water in order for significant development to occur, but recent satellite loops show that the low is pulling in an increasing amount of moisture from the Pacific, leading to heavy rains over Costa Rica and western Panama. Wind shear is low, about 5 - 10 knots, and there is deep layer of high moisture over the entire Western Caribbean, which both favor development if the center moves over water. Rainfall estimates from the Navy Research Lab indicate that 94L dumped up to three inches of rain over portions of Panama, Costa Rica, and Nicaragua over the past 24 hours.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Invest 94L.

The forecast for 94L
Wind shear is expected to remain in the low to moderate range, 5 - 15 knots, for the next five days in the Western Caribbean. Sea Surface temperatures are very warm, 29°C, and there is plenty of moisture through a deep layer of the atmosphere. The only major impediment to 94L becoming a tropical storm later this week would seem to be proximity to land. At present, only the GFS model develops 94L, but weeks it very weak. The GFS predicts the storm will take a north then northwesterly track across western Cuba early next week, then into the Gulf Coast of Florida later in the week. However, it is equally likely that 94L will stay bottled up in the Western Caribbean for the foreseeable future. I'll continue to give 94L a medium (30 - 50% chance) of eventually becoming a tropical depression over the next ten days. NHC is giving 94L a low (less than 30% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Friday, which is a good forecast. Given 94L's current state of disorganization and location over land, Saturday is the earliest we should expect it to organize into a tropical depression. NHC has not put the Hurricane Hunters on call to fly 94L Thursday or Friday.

Rick misses Baja, hits Mainland Mexico near Mazatlan
Tropical Storm Rick made landfall near 10am EDT in Mainland Mexico just north of Mazatlan. Top winds measured at the Matatlan airport during landfall were 39 mph, gusting to 61 mph. The primary threat from Rick will be heavy rains of up to six inches in the mountains near Mazatlan. Rick's remains should being at most one inch of rain to south-central Texas on Thursday.

Typhoon Lupit weakens and slows; path now uncertain
Typhoon Lupit, now a Category 1 storm with 90 mph winds, continues to have difficulty dealing with a slug of dry air it wrapped into its core two days ago. Microwave imagery showed that the typhoon was missing a portion of its northern eyewall this morning. However, recent Infrared satellite loops show that the eye has warmed and become more distinct, a sign of intensification. Also, the cloud tops of Lupit's eyewall have cooled in recent hours, signaling that they are more vigorous and reaching higher into the atmosphere. Lupit is in an environment favorable for re-intensification, with low wind shear of 5 - 10 knots and warm sea surface temperatures of 28 - 29°C. It would not be a surprise to see Lupit intensify into a major Category 3 typhoon again by Thursday, though the official forecast from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center is less aggressive, calling for a Category 2 storm by tomorrow. Even in its current weakened state, Lupit is a prodigious rain-maker, with rainfall rates exceeding one inch per hour near its core (Figure 2).

The future path of the typhoon is now highly uncertain, as steering currents are weakening and the storm is slowing down. A weakness in the ridge of high pressure steering Lupit west-southwest is developing, and several models (ECMWF, GFS) now predict recurvature of the typhoon before it reaches the Philippines. This optimistic scenario is counterbalanced by the very pessimistic forecasts of the UKMET and NOGAPS models, which take the typhoon inland over the northern portion of Luzon 1 - 2 days from now, and then stall the storm for 2 - 3 days. This would cause a major flooding disaster, as the soils are already saturated and the dams completely full from the 20+ inches of rain dumped by Super Typhoon Parma in early October. If Lupit stalls for several days over Luzon, it would dump another 20+ inches of rain, triggering massive flash flooding and life-threatening mudslides.

Storm chased Jim Edds is in northern Luzon to document Lupit's landfall, and has some interesting photos of the preparations the residents are taking.


Figure 2. Rainfall rates observed by a polar-orbiting microwave satellite at at 10:24 UTC Wednesday 10/21/09. Lupit is expected to dump rains in excess of one inch per hour (red and pink colors) along its path. Up to 12 inches of rain in a 24-hour period are expected from the typhoon. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey..

I'll have an update Thursday morning.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Weather456:
Too add a note, 925 mb vort has increase in the SW Caribbean

Please explain for those who who don't know the significance of that (mainly me). TIA
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488. xcool
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Too add a note, 925 mb vort has increase in the SW Caribbean

Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
it would if its not taking into consideration that the low is spliting between epac and atl
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485. xcool



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Quoting kmanhurricaneman:
thanks i guess i'll do that, better safe that sorry atleast thats what my grandma use to say to me.
How about prevention better than cure ?
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Quoting IKE:
18Z GFS at 84 hours....



I am starting to believe that the GFS is having an extremely hard time figuring out what is going on down there, which explains the inconsistency in it and most other models
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thanks i guess i'll do that, better safe that sorry atleast thats what my grandma use to say to me.
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Quoting kmanhurricaneman:
you know i really wish i knew what this thing is gonna do , i an leaving for miami tomorrow and not returning till monday and nobody will be home to do anything in case ,man this sucks!
Shutter up before you go just in case. Can't do ,much more than that.
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Gotta run now but will check in later.
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478. IKE
18Z GFS at 84 hours....

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
moving nne at 3knt
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The area near the Bahamas should also be watched, for the models also attempt to develop it somewhat.
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12.5n 80w
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Quoting kmanislander:


That position looks to be about right taking into account the lat/lon for San Andres, and Puerto Limon


I will go with that position based on sat images
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Quoting Drakoen:


I agree. I think the low is further south. I have it east of southern Nicaragua near 12N 83W


That position looks to be about right taking into account the lat/lon for San Andres, and Puerto Limon
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Quoting 786:
how quickly things change, convection def. stongest in the SW Caribbean, E Pac side has def. died down some. 456 from that map that shows a weakness, are you looking at the break pretty much N of the L, if not, how can you tell? TIA


I was starting to sound like a broken reccord in my blog update over the past few days but the low was expected to not move much due to high pressure to the north and weak steering flow then lift gradually through 5-7 days (at the time, now 3-6 days) as a weakness develops.

In reference to last Saturday....




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471. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
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470. xcool
pressure Falling mmmmmmm~~??
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you know i really wish i knew what this thing is gonna do , i an leaving for miami tomorrow and not returning till monday and nobody will be home to do anything in case ,man this sucks!
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Quoting kmanislander:


I think you have the "L" a little too far N otherwise the wind barb for the reporting station near the "toe" of the "L" would be showing a SW wind and not a SE wind.


I agree. I think the low is further south. I have it east of southern Nicaragua near 12N 83W
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466. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Floridaboy: definetely not with the words moving slow and still being a strong system
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465. 786
how quickly things change, convection def. stongest in the SW Caribbean, E Pac side has def. died down some. 456 from that map that shows a weakness, are you looking at the break pretty much N of the L, if not, how can you tell? TIA
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Quoting Weather456:




I think you have the "L" a little too far N otherwise the wind barb for the reporting station near the "toe" of the "L" would be showing a SW wind and not a SE wind.
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Quoting kmanislander:
Not much to do now but wait for QS again LOL
yep
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Not much to do now but wait for QS again LOL
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460. xcool
Humidity: 88%
Wind Speed: W 6 MPH
Barometer: 1012 mb

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just ran a rgb loop and speed it up abit and there is definately organisation taking place.
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New Hope,New Beginning
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Floridaboy95, all we can do is pray that no more lives are lost.
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Good evening!
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
Anyone notice that 94L is pulling IN moister from the EPAC?
Saw that too. Not much left on the Pacific side.
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454. xcool
Wind Direction (WDIR): ESE ( 110 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 11.7 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 13.6 kts
Wave Height (WVHT): 3.3 ft
Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 6 sec
Average Period (APD): 4.8 sec
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.79 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.04 in ( Falling )
Air Temperature (ATMP): 83.8 °F
Water Temperature (WTMP):
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Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
Philippines Atmospherical Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration

Typhoon "RAMIL" has slowed down as it continues to move towards Northern Luzon.

Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #17
===============================
At 5:00 AM PhST, Typhoon Ramil (Lupit) located at 19.0ºN 125.3ºE or 350 km east northeast of Aparri, Cagayan has 10 minute sustained winds of 160 km/h (85 kts) with gustiness up to 195 km/h (105 kts).

Signal Warnings
================

Signal Warning #3 (100-185 km/h winds)

Luzon Region
------------
1.Batanes Group
2.Cagayan
3.Calayan Island
4.Babuyan Islands
5.Apayao
6.Kalinga
7.Isabela

Signal Warning #2 (60-100 km/h winds)

Luzon Region
-----------
1.Ilocos Norte
2.Ilocos Sur
3.Abra
4.Mt. Province
5.Ifugao
6.Benguet
7.La Union
8.Nueva Vizcaya
9.Quirino
10.Aurora

Signal Warning #1 (30-60 km/h winds)

Luzon Region
------------
1.Pangasinan
2.Tarlac
3.Nueva Ecija
4.Zambales
5.Pampanga
6.Bulacan
7.Northern Quezon
8.Polillo Islands

Additional Information
======================
Residents in low-lying areas and near mountain slopes under signals #3, #2 and #1 are advised to take all the necessary precautionary measures against possible flashfloods and landslides.

Those living along the coast in areas under signal #2 and #3 are advised to be on alert against storm surge and big waves generated by the typhoon.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 a.m. today.
My grandmothers house got badly damaged during Parma....doesnt look like this will do any good to it.
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Anyone notice that 94L is pulling IN moister from the EPAC?
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Quoting kmanislander:


I was just going to post the pressure at Puerto Limon. 1005.4 mb and still falling. Winds from the N.

San Andres pressure is 1006 and also still falling. Winds from the ESE
mmmmmmmmmm!! thats sounds like its getting its act together.
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Quoting kmanislander:


I was just going to post the pressure at Puerto Limon. 1005.4 mb and still falling. Winds from the N.

San Andres pressure is 1006 and also still falling. Winds from the ESE
I checked them a few minutes ago. Saw that too.
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449. xcool





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Quoting kmanhurricaneman:
hi stormwatcher yeah havent been on in awhile too busy trying to make a buck, check sats every night though, how are you man? hows the water treating you?
I'm good. Lots of rain in EE. Held up a little while ago but still very overcast. I think more is on the way.
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Quoting Drakoen:
Pressure down to 1005mb in the southern Caribbean





I was just going to post the pressure at Puerto Limon. 1005.4 mb and still falling. Winds from the N.

San Andres pressure is 1006 and also still falling. Winds from the ESE
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Hi. Haven't seen you for awhile.
hi stormwatcher yeah havent been on in awhile too busy trying to make a buck, check sats every night though, how are you man? hows the water treating you?
Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1002
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Y

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
245 PM EDT WED OCT 21 2009

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...



.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...
THE 12Z GFS NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE WILL BE IGNORED DUE TO
SEEMINGLY SPURIOUS LOW PRESSURE FORMATION OVER THE BAHAMAS
THURSDAY.
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443. xcool
stormwatcherCI :0
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Quoting xcool:
Grothar thank itry alot :)
You do a good job. Thanks.
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441. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Philippines Atmospherical Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration

Typhoon "RAMIL" has slowed down as it continues to move towards Northern Luzon.

Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #17
===============================
At 5:00 AM PhST, Typhoon Ramil (Lupit) located at 19.0ºN 125.3ºE or 350 km east northeast of Aparri, Cagayan has 10 minute sustained winds of 160 km/h (85 kts) with gustiness up to 195 km/h (105 kts).

Signal Warnings
================

Signal Warning #3 (100-185 km/h winds)

Luzon Region
------------
1.Batanes Group
2.Cagayan
3.Calayan Island
4.Babuyan Islands
5.Apayao
6.Kalinga
7.Isabela

Signal Warning #2 (60-100 km/h winds)

Luzon Region
-----------
1.Ilocos Norte
2.Ilocos Sur
3.Abra
4.Mt. Province
5.Ifugao
6.Benguet
7.La Union
8.Nueva Vizcaya
9.Quirino
10.Aurora

Signal Warning #1 (30-60 km/h winds)

Luzon Region
------------
1.Pangasinan
2.Tarlac
3.Nueva Ecija
4.Zambales
5.Pampanga
6.Bulacan
7.Northern Quezon
8.Polillo Islands

Additional Information
======================
Residents in low-lying areas and near mountain slopes under signals #3, #2 and #1 are advised to take all the necessary precautionary measures against possible flashfloods and landslides.

Those living along the coast in areas under signal #2 and #3 are advised to be on alert against storm surge and big waves generated by the typhoon.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 a.m. today.
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Quoting kmanhurricaneman:
hello every one i have been lurking for a few days, reading and observing stats, this system so much reminds me of Paloma last year, i do believe devolpment is emminent to what degree ,we will have to see JMO
Hi. Haven't seen you for awhile.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8392
hello every one i have been lurking for a few days, reading and observing stats, this system so much reminds me of Paloma last year, i do believe devolpment is emminent to what degree ,we will have to see JMO
Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1002

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.