Western Caribbean disturabance 94L bringing heavy rains; Lupit's path uncertain

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:39 PM GMT on October 21, 2009

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A broad 1008 mb low pressure area has developed near 10N 84W, inland over Costa Rica. NHC designated this disturbance Invest 94L yesterday, but is no longer issuing model products for the disturbance. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed a broad circulation around the low, with top winds of about 30 - 35 mph over the extreme Southwestern Caribbean. Obviously, the center will have to move over water in order for significant development to occur, but recent satellite loops show that the low is pulling in an increasing amount of moisture from the Pacific, leading to heavy rains over Costa Rica and western Panama. Wind shear is low, about 5 - 10 knots, and there is deep layer of high moisture over the entire Western Caribbean, which both favor development if the center moves over water. Rainfall estimates from the Navy Research Lab indicate that 94L dumped up to three inches of rain over portions of Panama, Costa Rica, and Nicaragua over the past 24 hours.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Invest 94L.

The forecast for 94L
Wind shear is expected to remain in the low to moderate range, 5 - 15 knots, for the next five days in the Western Caribbean. Sea Surface temperatures are very warm, 29°C, and there is plenty of moisture through a deep layer of the atmosphere. The only major impediment to 94L becoming a tropical storm later this week would seem to be proximity to land. At present, only the GFS model develops 94L, but weeks it very weak. The GFS predicts the storm will take a north then northwesterly track across western Cuba early next week, then into the Gulf Coast of Florida later in the week. However, it is equally likely that 94L will stay bottled up in the Western Caribbean for the foreseeable future. I'll continue to give 94L a medium (30 - 50% chance) of eventually becoming a tropical depression over the next ten days. NHC is giving 94L a low (less than 30% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Friday, which is a good forecast. Given 94L's current state of disorganization and location over land, Saturday is the earliest we should expect it to organize into a tropical depression. NHC has not put the Hurricane Hunters on call to fly 94L Thursday or Friday.

Rick misses Baja, hits Mainland Mexico near Mazatlan
Tropical Storm Rick made landfall near 10am EDT in Mainland Mexico just north of Mazatlan. Top winds measured at the Matatlan airport during landfall were 39 mph, gusting to 61 mph. The primary threat from Rick will be heavy rains of up to six inches in the mountains near Mazatlan. Rick's remains should being at most one inch of rain to south-central Texas on Thursday.

Typhoon Lupit weakens and slows; path now uncertain
Typhoon Lupit, now a Category 1 storm with 90 mph winds, continues to have difficulty dealing with a slug of dry air it wrapped into its core two days ago. Microwave imagery showed that the typhoon was missing a portion of its northern eyewall this morning. However, recent Infrared satellite loops show that the eye has warmed and become more distinct, a sign of intensification. Also, the cloud tops of Lupit's eyewall have cooled in recent hours, signaling that they are more vigorous and reaching higher into the atmosphere. Lupit is in an environment favorable for re-intensification, with low wind shear of 5 - 10 knots and warm sea surface temperatures of 28 - 29°C. It would not be a surprise to see Lupit intensify into a major Category 3 typhoon again by Thursday, though the official forecast from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center is less aggressive, calling for a Category 2 storm by tomorrow. Even in its current weakened state, Lupit is a prodigious rain-maker, with rainfall rates exceeding one inch per hour near its core (Figure 2).

The future path of the typhoon is now highly uncertain, as steering currents are weakening and the storm is slowing down. A weakness in the ridge of high pressure steering Lupit west-southwest is developing, and several models (ECMWF, GFS) now predict recurvature of the typhoon before it reaches the Philippines. This optimistic scenario is counterbalanced by the very pessimistic forecasts of the UKMET and NOGAPS models, which take the typhoon inland over the northern portion of Luzon 1 - 2 days from now, and then stall the storm for 2 - 3 days. This would cause a major flooding disaster, as the soils are already saturated and the dams completely full from the 20+ inches of rain dumped by Super Typhoon Parma in early October. If Lupit stalls for several days over Luzon, it would dump another 20+ inches of rain, triggering massive flash flooding and life-threatening mudslides.

Storm chased Jim Edds is in northern Luzon to document Lupit's landfall, and has some interesting photos of the preparations the residents are taking.


Figure 2. Rainfall rates observed by a polar-orbiting microwave satellite at at 10:24 UTC Wednesday 10/21/09. Lupit is expected to dump rains in excess of one inch per hour (red and pink colors) along its path. Up to 12 inches of rain in a 24-hour period are expected from the typhoon. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey..

I'll have an update Thursday morning.

Jeff Masters

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539. hydrus
11:07 PM GMT on October 21, 2009
Quoting stormpetrol:
AOI in the SW Caribbean starting to consolidate this evening, imo this will become a named system in a few days,regardless of deactivation or lack of model support , watch wait and see, jmo
Word!...lol, A little old school to da blog.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20996
538. Drakoen
11:07 PM GMT on October 21, 2009
Increased convection

Lowering barometric pressure

Low level cyclonic flow


Those are the facts.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30213
537. pearlandaggie
11:06 PM GMT on October 21, 2009
"All models are wrong but some are useful."
--George E. P. Box
Member Since: September 14, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 3963
536. stormwatcherCI
11:06 PM GMT on October 21, 2009
Quoting reedzone:
They had their reason for deactivating the invest, one of the reasons is maybe the low that was 94L has dissipated while a new low is forming in the Western Carribean. You guys can't just say it wont form because there is no model support, look at Felix (2007). I'm still with Dr. Masters in believing a 30-50% chance of formation. Don't really expect anything to happen until maybe the weekend, it will take days for this to organize, if it does.
.SYNOPSIS...BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES OVER THE THE SW CARIBBEAN
SEA WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH FRI...THEN BEGIN TO
DRIFT IN A GENERAL NORTHWARD DIRECTION FRI NIGHT THROUGH SUN
IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK FRONT THAT MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA.
ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRES MAY AGAIN FORM OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA

SAT THROUGH MON. LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADES WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
AREA THROUGH MON.As you said and confirmed by NHC
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8331
535. stormpetrol
11:06 PM GMT on October 21, 2009
AOI in the SW Caribbean starting to consolidate this evening, imo this will become a named system in a few days,regardless of deactivation or lack of model support , watch wait and see, jmo
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 7834
534. Cavin Rawlins
11:05 PM GMT on October 21, 2009
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
533. hydrus
11:03 PM GMT on October 21, 2009
Quoting reedzone:
They had their reason for deactivating the invest, one of the reasons is maybe the low that was 94L has dissipated while a new low is forming in the Western Carribean. You guys can't just say it wont form because there is no model support, look at Felix (2007). I'm still with Dr. Masters in believing a 30-50% chance of formation. Don't really expect anything to happen until maybe the weekend, it will take days for this to organize, if it does.
Not to mention if the steering current changes rapidly, you cannot rely on the models.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20996
532. Drakoen
11:02 PM GMT on October 21, 2009
Quoting Weather456:


But you are look at one-sided facts

Increase convection

Increase vorticity

Inconsistency and poor handling with models


and most importantly the fact that development is not expected until weekend.


Very true. Some of the ECMWF runs wanted to obliterate Florida. When the ECMWF began it's weakening then the GFS decided it wanted to forecast something and now it isn't doing anything.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30213
531. weatherbro
11:02 PM GMT on October 21, 2009
Quoting IKE:


Just got deactivated.


RIP 94L
Member Since: May 26, 2007 Posts: 47 Comments: 1286
530. Cavin Rawlins
11:01 PM GMT on October 21, 2009
Quoting reedzone:
They had their reason for deactivating the invest, one of the reasons is maybe the low that was 94L has dissipated while a new low is forming in the Western Carribean. You guys can't just say it wont form because there is no model support, look at Felix (2007). I'm still with Dr. Masters in believing a 30-50% chance of formation. Don't really expect anything to happen until maybe the weekend, it will take days for this to organize, if it does.


I'll tell you a little story....model support is key, yes, but if people treat them like the gospel then it says something about their ability to reason. Keep that in mind.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
529. reedzone
10:59 PM GMT on October 21, 2009
They had their reason for deactivating the invest, one of the reasons is maybe the low that was 94L has dissipated while a new low is forming in the Western Carribean. You guys can't just say it wont form because there is no model support, look at Felix (2007). I'm still with Dr. Masters in believing a 30-50% chance of formation. Don't really expect anything to happen until maybe the weekend, it will take days for this to organize, if it does.
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7362
528. pearlandaggie
10:57 PM GMT on October 21, 2009
Quoting amd:
509. I saw that too.

Don't be surprised to see more hurricanes in the vicinity of Hawaii before December. The waters around Hawaii are quite a bit warmer than normal due to the El Nino Modiki forming.


it looks like the water is a little warmer in the area...mostly east and south of the islands, though.

Member Since: September 14, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 3963
527. plywoodstatenative
10:57 PM GMT on October 21, 2009
Ike how many times have we seen the NHC deactivate something and then seen it resurface. Nothing has tapped into the waters around Central America this year, and this system is doing just that. Also remember that this time of year we normally see storms do the cross over effect, this one is bumping that up a bit by feeding off the eastern pacific waters and the yucatan edie.
Member Since: November 15, 2005 Posts: 16 Comments: 4189
526. hcubed
10:56 PM GMT on October 21, 2009
Quoting IKE:


Just got deactivated.


Could be there was a discussion as to which of the lows will be the original. May have de-activated one to renumber it.

That's what happened back in '07 to a storm in the same area. Became 99L, went to Tx/La as a 30mph low.
Member Since: May 18, 2007 Posts: 289 Comments: 1639
525. hydrus
10:55 PM GMT on October 21, 2009
Quoting IKE:
18Z GFS at 84 hours....

If that disturbance stays at that position for 84 hours, there will be tension so thick you could cut it with a knife.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20996
524. reedzone
10:54 PM GMT on October 21, 2009
Quoting IKE:
No model support.

Deactivated invest.

Those are the facts.


Models are useles, Weather456 explained the situation. A dominant low needs to be in place before the models can get a handle on it.
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7362
523. Cavin Rawlins
10:53 PM GMT on October 21, 2009
Quoting IKE:
No model support.

Deactivated invest.

Those are the facts.


But you are look at one-sided facts

Increase convection

Increase vorticity

Inconsistency and poor handling with models


and most importantly the fact that development is not expected until weekend.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
522. reedzone
10:52 PM GMT on October 21, 2009
Quoting Weather456:
Now the downcasters will flood in, they have already trickled in.

94L being deactivated does not mean much. We still have a disturbance down there trying to dominate so there is always reactivation.


Do you think if it gets re-designated that maybe it will stay the same number? I mean, look what happened with 90L in May.. I agree with your analysis on this situation so far, great job man!
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7362
521. Stormchaser2007
10:52 PM GMT on October 21, 2009
Odd that they would deactivate 94L.

invest_DEACTIVATE_al932009

invest_DEACTIVATE_al942009
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15880
520. weatherbro
10:51 PM GMT on October 21, 2009
Quoting IKE:


Just got deactivated.


RIP 94L
Member Since: May 26, 2007 Posts: 47 Comments: 1286
519. pearlandaggie
10:51 PM GMT on October 21, 2009
516. i was thinking about Ioke earlier today, too, when i saw the intensity forecast of Neki...although the track is a lot different.

i still have the Wake Island weather station in my bookmarks...i can't imagine what it would've been like to be on the island during that!
Member Since: September 14, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 3963
518. IKE
10:50 PM GMT on October 21, 2009
No model support.

Deactivated invest.

Those are the facts.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
517. Cavin Rawlins
10:49 PM GMT on October 21, 2009
Now the downcasters will flood in, they have already trickled in.

94L being deactivated does not mean much. We still have a disturbance down there trying to dominate so there is always reactivation.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
516. amd
10:49 PM GMT on October 21, 2009
509. I saw that too.

The first major hurricane in the central pacific since Hurricane Ioke in 2006. Also, it looks like it will barrel through the islands to the wnw of the Hawaiian chain, which I think are not inhabited, but are a natural park.

Don't be surprised to see more hurricanes in the vicinity of Hawaii before December. The waters around Hawaii are quite a bit warmer than normal due to the El Nino Modiki forming.
Member Since: August 29, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1024
515. pearlandaggie
10:48 PM GMT on October 21, 2009
513. reed...you survived this morning's onslaught i see...congrats! :)
Member Since: September 14, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 3963
514. IKE
10:47 PM GMT on October 21, 2009
Quoting reedzone:


As I and other bloggers are seeing, a dominate low needs to be in place before models can get a handle on 94L. I believe the models will jump on the "potential" storm after this mess can manage one dominant low and not two entities.


Just got deactivated.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
513. reedzone
10:46 PM GMT on October 21, 2009
Quoting IKE:
18Z NOGAPS


18Z GFS


Neither model does much of anything in the Caribbean.


As I and other bloggers are seeing, a dominate low needs to be in place before models can get a handle on 94L. I believe the models will jump on the "potential" storm after this mess can manage one dominant low and not two entities.
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7362
512. hurricane23
10:45 PM GMT on October 21, 2009
BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_DEACTIVATE_al942009.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
200910212206
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13740
511. pearlandaggie
10:45 PM GMT on October 21, 2009
wow...now Neki is forecast to reach Cat 4 status...the max was only Cat 3 this morning.
Member Since: September 14, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 3963
510. weatherbro
10:45 PM GMT on October 21, 2009
Quoting IKE:
18Z NOGAPS


18Z GFS


Neither model does much of anything in the Caribbean.


looks like the cold front will win.
Member Since: May 26, 2007 Posts: 47 Comments: 1286
509. Ameister12
10:43 PM GMT on October 21, 2009
Just noticed this.

BULLETIN
HURRICANE NEKI ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP032009
1100 AM HST WED OCT 21 2009

...NEKI STRENGTHENS INTO A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE AS IT
CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTH NORTHWESTWARD FAR SOUTHWEST OF THE MAIN
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...

AT 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR
THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA NATIONAL MONUMENT FROM NIHOA ISLAND TO FRENCH
FRIGATE SHOALS TO MARO REEF. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

THE HURRICANE WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA NATIONAL
MONUMENT FROM MARO REEF TO LISIANSKI. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN THE NEXT
48 HOURS.

THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR JOHNSTON ISLAND HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

AT 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NEKI WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 166.8 WEST OR ABOUT
620 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF HONOLULU HAWAII AND ABOUT 410 MILES
SOUTH OF FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS.

NEKI IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH A GRADUAL
TURN TO THE NORTH BY 48 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BEGIN DETERIORATING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WARNING
AREA EARLY THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. NEKI IS
A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES FROM THE
CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 255
MILES.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE PATH
OF NEKI.

LARGE SWELLS WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN ADVANCE OF NEKI ACROSS THE
SMALLER ISLANDS OF THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA NATIONAL MONUMENT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND SEAS WILL BUILD TO 15 TO 20 FT ON THURSDAY...
CREATING SURF OF 20 TO 25 FT.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 960 MB...28.35 INCHES.

...SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...18.0N 166.8W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 9 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC
HURRICANE CENTER AT 200 PM HST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE
ADVISORY AT 500 PM HST.



Member Since: August 9, 2009 Posts: 10 Comments: 4948
508. pearlandaggie
10:42 PM GMT on October 21, 2009
503. LOL...too funny :)

while reading back i noticed the chief instigator was in here this morning starting trouble as usual---errr, discussing the data coming into his weather office.
Member Since: September 14, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 3963
507. IKE
10:41 PM GMT on October 21, 2009
18Z NOGAPS


18Z GFS


Neither model does much of anything in the Caribbean.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
506. kmanhurricaneman
10:40 PM GMT on October 21, 2009
GROW UP!!!!!!!!!!!!
Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1002
505. Cavin Rawlins
10:40 PM GMT on October 21, 2009
Perpestive

Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
504. amd
10:39 PM GMT on October 21, 2009
looks like I was wrong about 94L heading into the pacific and becoming dominant.

And, looking at the RAMSDIS floater, I agree with the observations about a more dominant low forming in the SW Caribbean just to the ne of puerto limon, costa rica.

Member Since: August 29, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1024
503. hydrus
10:37 PM GMT on October 21, 2009
Quoting pearlandaggie:
crow tacos, anyone? LOL
yeah baby, hot,steamy, crunchy,and delicious taco with MONSTER crow insiiiiiide....
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20996
502. redwagon
10:36 PM GMT on October 21, 2009
I have never seen a tropical system escorted over land so quickly as Rick has, have you?
Member Since: August 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3227
501. pearlandaggie
10:34 PM GMT on October 21, 2009
crow tacos, anyone? LOL
Member Since: September 14, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 3963
Quoting kmanhurricaneman:
thats exactly what i see, as the low in the sw carib moves away from the epac low development will take place jmo
I think there is more of a chance now than there was maybe even this morning.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8331
Quoting Weather456:


+1
Maybe something beginning to sink in my thick skull ? Sure hope so. Some excellent teachers on here including yourself.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8331
thats exactly what i see, as the low in the sw carib moves away from the epac low development will take place jmo
Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1002
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Looks to me like it is pulling in the moisture from the Pacific and a pretty good spin just where Kman, Drak and 456 said it is. Looks like it is trying to organize to me.


+1
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
and sunddenly the blogg has gotten quiet .................spooky!!!!!!!
Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1002
Quoting kmanhurricaneman:
stormwatcherci run a RGB loop and tell me what you see!!
Looks to me like it is pulling in the moisture from the Pacific and a pretty good spin just where Kman, Drak and 456 said it is. Looks like it is trying to organize to me.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8331
oh and speed it up a bit.
Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1002
493. xcool
GFS MODEL garbage BAD YEAR IMO!!!
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15648
stormwatcherci run a RGB loop and tell me what you see!!
Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1002
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Please explain for those who who don't know the significance of that (mainly me). TIA


It means vorticity (spin) is becoming more abundant in the SW Carib and supports what some were saying earlier that the vorticity shared between the EPAC/SW Caribbean will eventually end back over the SW Caribbean.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:


I am starting to believe that the GFS is having an extremely hard time figuring out what is going on down there, which explains the inconsistency in it and most other models


I dont think any model would have a good handle on such a system. We have to go with what is going on....
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Quoting Weather456:
Too add a note, 925 mb vort has increase in the SW Caribbean

Please explain for those who who don't know the significance of that (mainly me). TIA
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8331

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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