Western Caribbean disturabance 94L bringing heavy rains; Lupit's path uncertain

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:39 PM GMT on October 21, 2009

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A broad 1008 mb low pressure area has developed near 10N 84W, inland over Costa Rica. NHC designated this disturbance Invest 94L yesterday, but is no longer issuing model products for the disturbance. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed a broad circulation around the low, with top winds of about 30 - 35 mph over the extreme Southwestern Caribbean. Obviously, the center will have to move over water in order for significant development to occur, but recent satellite loops show that the low is pulling in an increasing amount of moisture from the Pacific, leading to heavy rains over Costa Rica and western Panama. Wind shear is low, about 5 - 10 knots, and there is deep layer of high moisture over the entire Western Caribbean, which both favor development if the center moves over water. Rainfall estimates from the Navy Research Lab indicate that 94L dumped up to three inches of rain over portions of Panama, Costa Rica, and Nicaragua over the past 24 hours.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Invest 94L.

The forecast for 94L
Wind shear is expected to remain in the low to moderate range, 5 - 15 knots, for the next five days in the Western Caribbean. Sea Surface temperatures are very warm, 29°C, and there is plenty of moisture through a deep layer of the atmosphere. The only major impediment to 94L becoming a tropical storm later this week would seem to be proximity to land. At present, only the GFS model develops 94L, but weeks it very weak. The GFS predicts the storm will take a north then northwesterly track across western Cuba early next week, then into the Gulf Coast of Florida later in the week. However, it is equally likely that 94L will stay bottled up in the Western Caribbean for the foreseeable future. I'll continue to give 94L a medium (30 - 50% chance) of eventually becoming a tropical depression over the next ten days. NHC is giving 94L a low (less than 30% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Friday, which is a good forecast. Given 94L's current state of disorganization and location over land, Saturday is the earliest we should expect it to organize into a tropical depression. NHC has not put the Hurricane Hunters on call to fly 94L Thursday or Friday.

Rick misses Baja, hits Mainland Mexico near Mazatlan
Tropical Storm Rick made landfall near 10am EDT in Mainland Mexico just north of Mazatlan. Top winds measured at the Matatlan airport during landfall were 39 mph, gusting to 61 mph. The primary threat from Rick will be heavy rains of up to six inches in the mountains near Mazatlan. Rick's remains should being at most one inch of rain to south-central Texas on Thursday.

Typhoon Lupit weakens and slows; path now uncertain
Typhoon Lupit, now a Category 1 storm with 90 mph winds, continues to have difficulty dealing with a slug of dry air it wrapped into its core two days ago. Microwave imagery showed that the typhoon was missing a portion of its northern eyewall this morning. However, recent Infrared satellite loops show that the eye has warmed and become more distinct, a sign of intensification. Also, the cloud tops of Lupit's eyewall have cooled in recent hours, signaling that they are more vigorous and reaching higher into the atmosphere. Lupit is in an environment favorable for re-intensification, with low wind shear of 5 - 10 knots and warm sea surface temperatures of 28 - 29°C. It would not be a surprise to see Lupit intensify into a major Category 3 typhoon again by Thursday, though the official forecast from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center is less aggressive, calling for a Category 2 storm by tomorrow. Even in its current weakened state, Lupit is a prodigious rain-maker, with rainfall rates exceeding one inch per hour near its core (Figure 2).

The future path of the typhoon is now highly uncertain, as steering currents are weakening and the storm is slowing down. A weakness in the ridge of high pressure steering Lupit west-southwest is developing, and several models (ECMWF, GFS) now predict recurvature of the typhoon before it reaches the Philippines. This optimistic scenario is counterbalanced by the very pessimistic forecasts of the UKMET and NOGAPS models, which take the typhoon inland over the northern portion of Luzon 1 - 2 days from now, and then stall the storm for 2 - 3 days. This would cause a major flooding disaster, as the soils are already saturated and the dams completely full from the 20+ inches of rain dumped by Super Typhoon Parma in early October. If Lupit stalls for several days over Luzon, it would dump another 20+ inches of rain, triggering massive flash flooding and life-threatening mudslides.

Storm chased Jim Edds is in northern Luzon to document Lupit's landfall, and has some interesting photos of the preparations the residents are taking.


Figure 2. Rainfall rates observed by a polar-orbiting microwave satellite at at 10:24 UTC Wednesday 10/21/09. Lupit is expected to dump rains in excess of one inch per hour (red and pink colors) along its path. Up to 12 inches of rain in a 24-hour period are expected from the typhoon. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey..

I'll have an update Thursday morning.

Jeff Masters

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I actually find this amusing. It is isn't even named yet (ex94L) and it is already starting to pull tricks... Just like the rest of the season.
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Quoting mac3821:
The debate this evening is pretty fascinating on 94L. I am basically a complete novice and I have searched and searched for an answer to this question....but will someone give me a laymans defenition of what DMAX is?


The flare up of convection seen during the early morning hours is known as
diurnal maximum:)
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lmao
Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1002
The debate this evening is pretty fascinating on 94L. I am basically a complete novice and I have searched and searched for an answer to this question....but will someone give me a laymans defenition of what DMAX is?
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585. IKE
Quoting tropics21:
I Know the point could be argued over and over about the models , when they call for something to develop all you see on the blog is how great they are and when nothing develops everyone calls them garbage Hopefully a storm will develop in the WPAC then everyones interest will be drawn there and the argueing will stop


Exactly...

I had this comment typed out, but hadn't posted it yet....

I think it's peculiar how some on here discount the models when they don't show much(referencing 94L)....

But...those same posters didn't discount the models when they showed a system(94L) developing.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting Weather456:


Read about the last 50 posts on the models.
I Know the point could be argued over and over about the models , when they call for something to develop all you see on the blog is how great they are and when nothing develops everyone calls them garbage Hopefully a storm will develop in the WPAC then everyones interest will be drawn there and the argueing will stop
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TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED OCT 21 2009

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A 1008 MB LOW IS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN OFF THE COAST OF NICARAGUA
NEAR 11N83W THAT HAS A LOW POTENTIAL OF TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT.
THE UPPER TROUGH THAT COVERS THE E GULF OF MEXICO DIPS S OVER
THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 17N W OF 74W TO OVER THE YUCATAN. AN UPPER
RIDGE ANCHORED OVER NW VENEZUELA COVERS THE S CARIBBEAN S OF 16N
FROM 67W-83W. THIS SCENARIO IS PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO
GENERATE A BROAD AREA OF MULTILAYERED OVERCAST CLOUDS WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS E OF A LINE FROM CUBA
NEAR 22N81W TO HONDURAS NEAR 16N87W AND W OF LINE FROM
HISPANIOLA NEAR 18N71W TO PANAMA NEAR 9N78W. AND UPPER TROUGH
FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS SW OVER THE E CARIBBEAN PROVIDING
DRY STABLE AIRMASS E OF 70W THUS GIVING THE E CARIBBEAN CLEAR
SKIES THIS EVENING. THE LOW IN THE SW CARIBBEAN IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.


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Still says low potential but potential nonetheless(?).
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8418
Why don't we all just sit back and relax for now. If...I said "if" and when real organization does take place...we can then let the experience on this site work their magic and watch the "real" debates begin....Now that's what I'm waiting for.....this is like watching paint dry for Pete's sake!!!
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Hmmm. Not that it is something to get all that excited over yet, but CMC seems to drop a low right off my doorstep (tail of next cold front?) off of the LA coast.

Not impossible, nor likely.


(Click for full size)
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79.5w 13n
Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1002
CARIBBEAN SEA...
A 1008 MB LOW IS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN OFF THE COAST OF NICARAGUA
NEAR 11N83W THAT HAS A LOW POTENTIAL OF TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT.
TWD 8PM
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8418
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
As far as I can remember it has said since Monday will be slow to occur which imo means it will be disorganized for a few days and then get better organized.


there you go
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Quoting Weather456:


That has been the case for sometime now and you are still ignoring the other facts.
As far as I can remember it has said since Monday will be slow to occur which imo means it will be disorganized for a few days and then get better organized.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8418
i have little faith in that forcast
Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1002
Quoting IKE:


"Poorly Organized."....those are the NHC's facts.


That has been the case for sometime now so nothing new and you are still ignoring the other facts.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
572. amd
Quoting IKE:


"Poorly Organized."....those are the NHC's facts.


facts are a stubborn thing...
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`wunderkidcayman, Remember this ? Pray we don't get another one.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8418
We have weatherkid and wonderbro both with "strong feelings" about system getting designated tonight and next year ala El Nina...neither with any supportive evidence. I have a strong feeling both their predictions have a 50/50 chance...but that's just me....
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569. IKE
Quoting miajrz:
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT WED OCT 21 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A NEARLY STATIONARY AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF
CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS. THIS SYSTEM REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED AND
DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY RAINS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE OVER COSTA
RICA...NICARAGUA...AND HONDURAS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THERE IS
A LOW CHANCE... LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH


"Poorly Organized."....those are the NHC's facts.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting tropics21:
1200z ECMWF has backed off the system formimg


Read about the last 50 posts on the models.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
LOL Great comeback
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boy , seems there are some people eating razors tonight!
Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1002
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT WED OCT 21 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A NEARLY STATIONARY AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF
CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS. THIS SYSTEM REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED AND
DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY RAINS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE OVER COSTA
RICA...NICARAGUA...AND HONDURAS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THERE IS
A LOW CHANCE... LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH
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Quoting hydrus:
why?


For every action there's an equal and opposite reaction. lol
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Quoting kmanhurricaneman:
oh and by the way 93l isnt completely dead there is still voticity there

Yep, little bit of vorticity, now in Tibet.
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Hydrus - I agree. I think that the steering currents / weather patterns can* change faster than the models iniatilize and run. That is just one reason why a good forecaster and forecast is key.

* - Added on edit for clarification of my humble opinion.
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93L doesn't exist
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Quoting tropics21:
look at the 1200z not tonight sorry

ok maybe not tonight but very soon
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:
hi guys I think we will 95L or renumber94l very very soon maybe late tonight and this one will effect the NW carib and it could be a major system.
I hope we don,t have a major system. Please address the storm Gods and ask for a rain check...definitely no pun intended...
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1200z ECMWF has backed off the system formimg
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557. beell
Positve vorticity advection (PVA) on the east side of the Central American gyre.
Negative on the Pacific side. An easy bet on which basin "wins". These are not vorticity charts but a good graphical representation of why and where the strongest "cyclonic turning" is noted (where the stronger winds are located).

400-850mb Steering



If you look a little higher up, (200-700mm)-a clue as to what might lift the gyre (or a piece of energy from it) out of the southern Caribbean and bring it far enough N to be influenced by other factors (surface trough/front).

200-700mb Steering

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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Where do you get your information from or are you just guessing ?

just have a strong feeling about this
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:
hi guys I think we will 95L or renumber94l very very soon maybe late tonight and this one will effect the NW carib and it could be a major system.
look at the 1200z
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
hi guys I think we will 95L or renumber94l very very soon maybe late tonight and this one will effect the NW carib and it could be a major system.
not tonight sorry
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:
hi guys I think we will 95L or renumber94l very very soon maybe late tonight and this one will effect the NW carib and it could be a major system.
Where do you get your information from or are you just guessing ?
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8418
hi guys I think we will 95L or renumber94l very very soon maybe late tonight and this one will effect the NW carib and it could be a major system.
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Quoting weatherbro:
I have a strong feeling next year we will have a La Nina Modiki. The last time that happened was in late 2000. peaking from November 2000 to January 2001!
why?
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oh and by the way 93l isnt completely dead there is still voticity there
Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1002
I have a strong feeling next year we will have a La Nina Modiki. The last time that happened was in late 2000. peaking from November 2000 to January 2001!
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Quoting augfan:


Ever been there? I spent a couple of days there getting the plane fixed and high surf will cover the atoll. Really need a submarine for a storm surge, lol.


nope, never been there. however, i figured the island would be completely submerged by that kind of storm surge. i'm glad they got everyone out before the storm.
Member Since: September 14, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 3963
Quoting pearlandaggie:
516. i was thinking about Ioke earlier today, too, when i saw the intensity forecast of Neki...although the track is a lot different.

i still have the Wake Island weather station in my bookmarks...i can't imagine what it would've been like to be on the island during that!


Ever been there? I spent a couple of days there getting the plane fixed and high surf will cover the atoll. Really need a submarine for a storm surge, lol.
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547. xcool
Link

Drakoen and Weather456 goo here!!!!
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
546. xcool
stormwatcherCI LOLOL lmao
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
545. xcool
Drakoen NICE :)
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting xcool:
increasing of convection
Right again. LOL
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8418
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30595
542. xcool
increasing of convection
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
540. isn't that the truth! model output is an educated guess, not real data :)
Member Since: September 14, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 3963
Quoting pearlandaggie:
"All models are wrong but some are useful."
--George E. P. Box


Let models guide your thinking not think for you.
- My Mentor
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Quoting stormpetrol:
AOI in the SW Caribbean starting to consolidate this evening, imo this will become a named system in a few days,regardless of deactivation or lack of model support , watch wait and see, jmo
Word!...lol, A little old school to da blog.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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