Rick weakens; Lupit headed to the Philippines; Western Caribbean brewing a storm?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:09 PM GMT on October 19, 2009

Share this Blog
2
+

Hurricane Rick has weakened significantly over the past 24 hours, thanks to moderate wind shear of 15 - 20 knots. Although still a powerful Category 3 hurricane with 125 mph winds, this is a far cry from the spectacular Category 5 hurricane with 180 mph winds and 905 mb pressure Rick was early Sunday morning. At that time, Rick was the second most powerful hurricane ever recorded in the Eastern Pacific. The only Eastern Pacific hurricane that was stronger was Hurricane Linda of 1997, which had 185 mph winds and a 902 mb pressure. Reliable satellite measurements of Eastern Pacific storms go back to about 1970, and Rick is the 11th Category 5 hurricane in the Eastern Pacific since 1970.


Figure 1.Hurricane Rick just after peak intensity at 17:55 UTC October 18, 2009. A this time, Rick was a Category 5 hurricane with 175 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

Recent microwave satellite imagery suggests that wind shear may have eaten away the southwest portion of Rick's eyewall, allowing dry air to intrude into the core of the storm. The Hurricane Hunters will visit Rick this afternoon to learn more, and I suspect Rick is weaker than the Category 3 hurricane with 125 mph winds that is currently advertised.

Wind shear will increase to the high range, 20 - 30 knots, in the 24 hours before landfall, and ocean heat content and sea surface temperatures will steadily decrease over the next two days as Rick approaches Baja. The latest GFDL and HWRF model runs put Rick at Category 1 strength at its closest approach to Baja, and this appears to be a reasonable forecast given the current appearance of Rick. NHC is currently giving both Cabo San Lucas and San Jose Cabo on Baja's southern tip a 20% chance of receiving hurricane-force winds from Rick. Rick will make a second landfall in Mainland Mexico on Wednesday night, and the moisture from Rick should reach southern Texas by Friday, possibly leading to heavy rains there on Friday and Saturday.

Typhoon Lupit a potential major disaster for the Philippines
Category 4 Super Typhoon Lupit has begun its turn to the west over the Philippine Sea, and is headed towards a landfall early Thursday morning on the northern portion of Luzon Island in the Philippines. Thanks to the departure of a trough of low pressure that was pulling the super typhoon to the northeast and creating a region of weak steering currents, a strong ridge of high pressure is now building in over Lupit and will force it slightly south of due west. The models are all in excellent agreement on the forecast track taking the super typhoon over northern Luzon as a major Category 3 or 4 typhoon, and Lupit--the Filipino word for cruel--is very likely to live up to its name. The northern Philippines are still reeling from the rains and mudslides unleashed by Super Typhoon Parma last week, which crossed over the northern Philippines three times, dumping over twenty inches of rain in many locations. Parma killed 438 people, and 51 are still missing. A week prior to Parma, Typhoon Ketsana brought the heaviest rains in 42 years to the capital of Manila, killing 420 people, with 37 still missing.


Figure 2. Rainfall forecast for Super Typhoon Lupit for the 24-hour period ending at 06 UTC Tuesday 10/20/09. Lupit is expected to dump 8 - 12 inches of rain (orange colors) in a small region near its center. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS.

Wind shear over Lupit is in the low range, 5 - 10 knots, and the typhoon is embedded in a very moist environment with warm sea surface temperatures of 28 - 29°C. Total heat content of the ocean is too low (20 kJ/cm^2) to permit much additional intensification over the next two days, but in the final 12 hours before landfall, the total oceanic heat content will rise to 80 kJ/cm^2, which should allow Lupit to retain at least Category 3 strength right up until landfall, despite interaction of the storm with land. Lupit will move relatively quickly over the Philippines, but the typhoon is likely to dump 12+ inches of rain over the already saturated soils of northern Luzon Island. These rains will create life-threatening flash floods and mudslides capable of killing hundreds more Filipinos.


Figure 3 Morning visible satellite image of the area of disturbed weather in the Western Caribbean.

A Western Caribbean tropical storm coming?
In the Atlantic, an area of disturbed weather has developed in the Western Caribbean from Costa Rica to the Cayman Islands, in association with the remains of a cold front, a tropical wave, and a broad 1010 mb low pressure region that has developed over the extreme southwestern Caribbean off the coast of Costa Rica. Last night's QuikSCAT pass showed that the low off the coast of Costa Rica had a broad and disorganized surface circulation. The thunderstorm activity associated with this large and complicated area of disturbed weather is disorganized and under 10 - 30 knots of wind shear, and any development over the next three days will be slow. However, by Friday, wind shear over the Western Caribbean is expected to drop significantly, and development of a tropical depression in the Western Caribbean becomes a more real possibility. Numerous runs over the past few days of all of our reliable global forecast models have shown a tropical depression developing in the Western Caribbean by early next week. The timing, location, and track of such a such a storm are all pretty hazy, but I think there is a 60% chance of a named storm forming in the Western Caribbean sometime in the next 10 days. The regions most likely to be affected by such a storm would be Honduras, Nicaragua, and the Cayman Islands, and it is possible that such a storm may stay trapped in the Western Caribbean for many days (as predicted by the GFS model). Alternatively, the storm could move steadily northwards after formation, affecting western Cuba, the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, South Florida, and the Bahamas. This is the solution preferred by the ECMWF model. In either case, a long period of disturbed weather is likely for the Western Caribbean. Heavy rains will affect northeast Honduras, eastern Nicaragua, and the Cayman Islands this week, and could spread to adjacent countries as the area of disturbed weather evolves.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 797 - 747

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23Blog Index

Ditto on Post #794....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
It does not get better than this. All the more knowledgeable forecasters all posting tonight at the same time about this disturbance. We only need Hurricane23 posting his opinion tonight and we would just about have it all.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
StormW......Dang Cuz....keep sending those cool loops....very interesting to watch (dare I say)...the labor pains before the birth....I love WU!!!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Drakoen:


A SHIP is reporting an east northeast wind just south of the convection so I would uphold the center to be south or SSW of the deepest convection.


Now here's something I find interesting, 925 mb vorticity max is nearer to the proposed center we had early, which differs from the 850 mb vort and what might be seen on sat images. Now 925 mb is closer to the surface than 850 mb, so it seems the center remains south of the convective mass, and whatever circulation to the north is aloft since it is stronger at 850 mb than 925mb.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Obvious I know - take care

ASCAT
Link

Quik
http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/quikscat/
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting StormW:


That's very possible, Drak.


A SHIP is reporting an east northeast wind just south of the convection so I would uphold the center to be south or SSW of the deepest convection.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting kmanislander:
Combining the two helps especially with a stationary system


WindSAT was working at one point, would of triple the chances.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Combining the two helps especially with a stationary system
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting kmanislander:
So Ascat is the opposite of Quikscat for time of the day for passes; namely Quikscat is ascending in the morning and descending at night and Ascat is the opposite ?


Yea...this is ASCAT ascending pass, normally QS ascending pass would start at 0200 UTC near Africa and end near 1400 UTC out west near GOM.



Member Since: Posts: Comments:
The Ascat passes come out later than the Quickscat passes.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Drakoen:


Yes from what I understand.


Great, thanks
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Weather456:


the ascat was from last night and the QS ascending pass this morning...here it is:

It shows 0102 20 October but the pass was near 1200 UTC...



Gotcha
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting kmanislander:
So Ascat is the opposite of Quikscat for time of the day for passes; namely Quikscat is ascending in the morning and descending at night and Ascat is the opposite ?


Yes from what I understand.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
So Ascat is the opposite of Quikscat for time of the day for passes; namely Quikscat is ascending in the morning and descending at night and Ascat is the opposite ?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Drakoen:


Okay. So the quickscat ascending pass is taken at night? So that is the from last night. Its the most recent pass we have between the quickscat and the ascat of this disturbance. If so that looks like a closed low.



the ascat was from last night and the QS ascending pass this morning...here it is:

It shows 0102 20 October but the pass was near 1200 UTC...

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 19N81W:
any models anyone?..so we can get some timing on this? Would like to start initiating something at least if we need to go full out evac here...although I know very unlikely at this stage.


Not to be mean...but you are depending on an entertainment weather blog to determine if you have to do a full-out evac.?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting kmanislander:
Would this be the Ascat pass from 1400 UTC today, also a miss of the area in question but still a partial pass ?


Yes it would be today's but not this evening's.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
maybe I dont know what I am looking at but none of those models forecast this thing to do much?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I always held the low pressure center to be southwest of the convection and it still looks that way to me. Perhaps the mid level center is the circulation west of the convection.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 19N81W:
question:

This AOI is stalled out and is producing copius amounts of cloud cover and cool rain.

Is it possible that because of the lack of sunshine hitting the ocean and rain around it that over an extended period of time the SST will cool somewhat and diminishing the whole dmin/dmax thing and thus the storm will not be able to take advantage of energy in front of it?


It happened in mid June this year, there was a thunderstorm cell that kept producing cloud cover and rain for days near the SW Caribbean. When I looked at the SSTs after the event they did cool but by 0.5C

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Would this be the Ascat pass from 1400 UTC today, also a miss of the area in question but still a partial pass ?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Weather456:


Oh. Well I assume October 19 since 0315 UTC 20 October has not arrive as yet.


Okay. So the quickscat ascending pass is taken at night? So that is the from last night. Its the most recent pass we have between the quickscat and the ascat of this disturbance. If so that looks like a closed low.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
768. XL
Quoting 19N81W:
any models anyone?..so we can get some timing on this? Would like to start initiating something at least if we need to go full out evac here...although I know very unlikely at this stage.

Please don't even suggest full evac. I'm here on my own and can't leave as I have my dog who isn't rabies vaccinated yet. I'm am just hoping it goes away
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
question:

This AOI is stalled out and is producing copius amounts of cloud cover and cool rain.

Is it possible that because of the lack of sunshine hitting the ocean and rain around it that over an extended period of time the SST will cool somewhat and diminishing the whole dmin/dmax thing and thus the storm will not be able to take advantage of energy in front of it?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
766. xcool
Link



model runs!!!~~!@#
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15603
Quoting Drakoen:


Not the time of the pass, the date that it was taken.


Oh. Well I assume October 19 since 0315 UTC 20 October has not arrive as yet.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
764. JLPR
Quoting Drakoen:


Not the time of the pass, the date that it was taken.


looks old
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Looking at pressure in the area.....it appears that on average the pressure is down about 1mb now ver. 24hrs ago.....1010.1 is the lowest i can find.....
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 177 Comments: 20430
Quoting StormW:
Looking at various satellite loop images, the center appears to be just west of the heaviest convection.


Yes I was looking at that. If that is the case then what are the surface obs showing. Is the center that broad?

Look at the latest surface conv



850 vort

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
761. xcool


Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15603
any models anyone?..so we can get some timing on this? Would like to start initiating something at least if we need to go full out evac here...although I know very unlikely at this stage.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Weather456:


time of the pass at the bottom where it says 3:15-3:16


Not the time of the pass, the date that it was taken.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
i see a pinhole eye with Lupit


W-CIMSS Automated Satellite-Based
Advanced Dvorak Technique (ADT)
Version 7.2
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Estimation Algorithm


Current Intensity Analysis




UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 20 OCT 2009 Time : 003000 UTC
Lat : 20:15:43 N Lon : 130:28:26 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.1 / 952.6mb/ 92.4kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
5.0 5.4 6.1

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +1.2mb

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :<10 km

Center Temp : -27.5C Cloud Region Temp : -72.8C

Scene Type : PINHOLE EYE


Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.5T/hour
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Drakoen:
The ASCAT passes confuse me. When was this image taken?:




time of the pass at the bottom where it says 3:15-3:16
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting presslord:
I'm pretty upset with you myself, Pat...

Since when is candy corn not a vegetable?!?!?!?!?!


I cant reply Press..Im surrounded by fun and facts,..LOL
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Is there a glitch in the system again?

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
752. xcool


Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15603
The ASCAT passes confuse me. When was this image taken?:


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
There won't be anything new for the rest of the evening so will bid you all good night.

Late season disturbances in the SW Caribbean are much like watching paint dry or grass grow.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:



Member Since: Posts: Comments:
LOOP
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Weather456:


The time of that pass is around 0300Z 19 October, in other words 11PM last night.


Sorry i didn't look at the time....LOL....my bad
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 177 Comments: 20430

Viewing: 797 - 747

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23Blog Index

Top of Page

About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.