Rick weakens; Lupit headed to the Philippines; Western Caribbean brewing a storm?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:09 PM GMT on October 19, 2009

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Hurricane Rick has weakened significantly over the past 24 hours, thanks to moderate wind shear of 15 - 20 knots. Although still a powerful Category 3 hurricane with 125 mph winds, this is a far cry from the spectacular Category 5 hurricane with 180 mph winds and 905 mb pressure Rick was early Sunday morning. At that time, Rick was the second most powerful hurricane ever recorded in the Eastern Pacific. The only Eastern Pacific hurricane that was stronger was Hurricane Linda of 1997, which had 185 mph winds and a 902 mb pressure. Reliable satellite measurements of Eastern Pacific storms go back to about 1970, and Rick is the 11th Category 5 hurricane in the Eastern Pacific since 1970.


Figure 1.Hurricane Rick just after peak intensity at 17:55 UTC October 18, 2009. A this time, Rick was a Category 5 hurricane with 175 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

Recent microwave satellite imagery suggests that wind shear may have eaten away the southwest portion of Rick's eyewall, allowing dry air to intrude into the core of the storm. The Hurricane Hunters will visit Rick this afternoon to learn more, and I suspect Rick is weaker than the Category 3 hurricane with 125 mph winds that is currently advertised.

Wind shear will increase to the high range, 20 - 30 knots, in the 24 hours before landfall, and ocean heat content and sea surface temperatures will steadily decrease over the next two days as Rick approaches Baja. The latest GFDL and HWRF model runs put Rick at Category 1 strength at its closest approach to Baja, and this appears to be a reasonable forecast given the current appearance of Rick. NHC is currently giving both Cabo San Lucas and San Jose Cabo on Baja's southern tip a 20% chance of receiving hurricane-force winds from Rick. Rick will make a second landfall in Mainland Mexico on Wednesday night, and the moisture from Rick should reach southern Texas by Friday, possibly leading to heavy rains there on Friday and Saturday.

Typhoon Lupit a potential major disaster for the Philippines
Category 4 Super Typhoon Lupit has begun its turn to the west over the Philippine Sea, and is headed towards a landfall early Thursday morning on the northern portion of Luzon Island in the Philippines. Thanks to the departure of a trough of low pressure that was pulling the super typhoon to the northeast and creating a region of weak steering currents, a strong ridge of high pressure is now building in over Lupit and will force it slightly south of due west. The models are all in excellent agreement on the forecast track taking the super typhoon over northern Luzon as a major Category 3 or 4 typhoon, and Lupit--the Filipino word for cruel--is very likely to live up to its name. The northern Philippines are still reeling from the rains and mudslides unleashed by Super Typhoon Parma last week, which crossed over the northern Philippines three times, dumping over twenty inches of rain in many locations. Parma killed 438 people, and 51 are still missing. A week prior to Parma, Typhoon Ketsana brought the heaviest rains in 42 years to the capital of Manila, killing 420 people, with 37 still missing.


Figure 2. Rainfall forecast for Super Typhoon Lupit for the 24-hour period ending at 06 UTC Tuesday 10/20/09. Lupit is expected to dump 8 - 12 inches of rain (orange colors) in a small region near its center. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS.

Wind shear over Lupit is in the low range, 5 - 10 knots, and the typhoon is embedded in a very moist environment with warm sea surface temperatures of 28 - 29°C. Total heat content of the ocean is too low (20 kJ/cm^2) to permit much additional intensification over the next two days, but in the final 12 hours before landfall, the total oceanic heat content will rise to 80 kJ/cm^2, which should allow Lupit to retain at least Category 3 strength right up until landfall, despite interaction of the storm with land. Lupit will move relatively quickly over the Philippines, but the typhoon is likely to dump 12+ inches of rain over the already saturated soils of northern Luzon Island. These rains will create life-threatening flash floods and mudslides capable of killing hundreds more Filipinos.


Figure 3 Morning visible satellite image of the area of disturbed weather in the Western Caribbean.

A Western Caribbean tropical storm coming?
In the Atlantic, an area of disturbed weather has developed in the Western Caribbean from Costa Rica to the Cayman Islands, in association with the remains of a cold front, a tropical wave, and a broad 1010 mb low pressure region that has developed over the extreme southwestern Caribbean off the coast of Costa Rica. Last night's QuikSCAT pass showed that the low off the coast of Costa Rica had a broad and disorganized surface circulation. The thunderstorm activity associated with this large and complicated area of disturbed weather is disorganized and under 10 - 30 knots of wind shear, and any development over the next three days will be slow. However, by Friday, wind shear over the Western Caribbean is expected to drop significantly, and development of a tropical depression in the Western Caribbean becomes a more real possibility. Numerous runs over the past few days of all of our reliable global forecast models have shown a tropical depression developing in the Western Caribbean by early next week. The timing, location, and track of such a such a storm are all pretty hazy, but I think there is a 60% chance of a named storm forming in the Western Caribbean sometime in the next 10 days. The regions most likely to be affected by such a storm would be Honduras, Nicaragua, and the Cayman Islands, and it is possible that such a storm may stay trapped in the Western Caribbean for many days (as predicted by the GFS model). Alternatively, the storm could move steadily northwards after formation, affecting western Cuba, the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, South Florida, and the Bahamas. This is the solution preferred by the ECMWF model. In either case, a long period of disturbed weather is likely for the Western Caribbean. Heavy rains will affect northeast Honduras, eastern Nicaragua, and the Cayman Islands this week, and could spread to adjacent countries as the area of disturbed weather evolves.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting KoritheMan:


Looking at the graph of the CMC at 144 hours that you posted, I see no evidence of said front over Florida, which makes me inclined to believe that the weakness as shown by that particular model during that time is overdone.


guess we will see, but every discussion here in Central and South Florida talk about a front coming through here on Saturday and Sunday, it shows up in the temps

It isn't a strong front, but it is there

So really I am not sure what the CMC is showing
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Quoting KoritheMan:


Looking at the graph of the CMC at 144 hours that you posted, I see no evidence of said front over Florida, which makes me inclined to believe that the weakness as shown by that particular model during that time is overdone.


Looks like the CMC did a 180. Last night took it over Fl. Now I think that is the system in BOC? Can't be sure though.

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Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:


a front will be in the vicinity of Central Florida at this time frame as well, likely scenario is the system finds the weakness between the two ridges


Looking at the graph of the CMC at 144 hours that you posted, I see no evidence of said front over Florida, which makes me inclined to believe that the weakness as shown by that particular model during that time is overdone.
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994. xcool
poor rick
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting KoritheMan:


Depending upon the placement of the western Atlantic ridge at that time, this system may just end up moving into Central America or the Yucatan and dissipating.

Although, it looks as if this system will be embedded within weak steering currents for the next several days or more.


a front will be in the vicinity of Central Florida at this time frame as well, likely scenario is the system finds the weakness between the two ridges
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Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:


00Z CMC at 144 hours


Depending upon the placement of the western Atlantic ridge at that time, this system may just end up moving into Central America or the Yucatan and dissipating.

Although, it looks as if this system will be embedded within weak steering currents for the next several days or more.
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00Z CMC at 144 hours
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Quoting KoritheMan:
You can clearly see strong upper-level winds just to the west of the eastern Atlantic tropical wave simply by looking at satellite imagery. I don't think this area will last very long.

The Caribbean AOI, on the other hand, needs to be carefully monitored over the next several days as this is a climatologically favored spot for tropical cyclogenesis, and the western Caribbean has been notorious for producing late season major hurricanes.


yea I agree
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988. xcool
Link


neww model runs!!!!!~
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
You can clearly see strong upper-level winds just to the west of the eastern Atlantic tropical wave simply by looking at satellite imagery. I don't think this area will last very long.

The Caribbean AOI, on the other hand, needs to be carefully monitored over the next several days as this is a climatologically favored spot for tropical cyclogenesis, and the western Caribbean has been notorious for producing late season major hurricanes.
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Rick down graded to TS early. Does that mean less rain in Texas?
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985. xcool


???










Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting centex:
Here is my professional type post. The area of disturbed weather in in SW carribean has shown no increase in organization. Wind Shear is 15-30 kts and is not favorable for development at this time and only slow development is possible. But shear forecast are not reliable and disturbace is expected to dirft NNW and may find more favorable conditions in 48 hours. I give this like NHC only low chance (less than 30% chance) of TD formation at this time.
still think after two, this is reasonable summary.
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Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:


look how they changed the wording from the 8pm TWO for the area in the SW Caribbean


interesting
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
982. xcool
Tropics could heat up
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
981. xcool
guess not over yetttt
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Quoting tornadodude:
two?

haha nice


look how they changed the wording from the 8pm TWO for the area in the SW Caribbean
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979. xcool
wowwwwwwwww 2
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
two?

haha nice
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
977. xcool
hihi
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT TUE OCT 20 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS
PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS IT DRIFTS NORTHWESTWARD.
THERE IS
A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ABOUT 700 MILES WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A
TROPICAL WAVE. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE
FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES WESTWARD TO WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN
30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/BEVEN


Two Yellow Circles now lol
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howdy
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
Quoting TampaSpin:


If you wanna call it that.....Not much development there.


GFS should never be looked at for the strength of a system. The fact it shows development of a system and keeps it in the Caribbean on a track similar to the ECMWF and CMC is pretty significant

question is will it stay consistent or will the 06Z run have it going SE towards the south pole lol
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Here is my professional type post. The area of disturbed weather in in SW carribean has shown no increase in organization. Wind Shear is 15-30 kts and is not favorable for development at this time and only slow development is possible. But shear forecast are not reliable and disturbace is expected to dirft NNW and may find more favorable conditions in 48 hours. I give this like NHC only low chance (less than 30% chance) of TD formation at this time.
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I'm out good nite all......
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Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:
00Z GFS on board again with the ECMWF, so far takes a system northward

so far has it starting to organize better north of Honduras, this is really a slow mover


If you wanna call it that.....Not much development there.
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970. xcool
NOO MORE BLACKOUT YAY!!~~~
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
969. xcool
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
AOI has got it's problems, but it's going to hang around so might. NHC recently agreed. Hanging on is good indicator.
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967. xcool
?
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
00Z GFS on board again with the ECMWF, so far takes a system northward

so far has it starting to organize better north of Honduras, this is really a slow mover
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965. xcool


Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting Orcasystems:


If you look at the shear maps... its 50 knots on either side (N & S).. I don't think it will last long


tis the season for top down development though..maybe something just in advance of the front
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RGB on the NHC looks pretty good could be a head of schedule on development.
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Quoting PcolaDan:


OHHHH Yea I did. Didn't realize the potency of it 'til too late. LOL Great on a cold night at the Weihnachtsmarkt.

p.s. Only Gl�gg I got was from Ikea. lol Never made it to Scandanavia.


Looks as if our umlauts don't translate on the blog. If you ever have a chance to go to any Scandinavian country, you should. The fjords are an unforgettable sight in Norway. Sweden is also spectacular. People are under the impression that they are always covered in snow, which is not the case. Actually, Norway's climate on the coastal regions are quite mild because of the Gulfstream. Surprisingly so. The countries have the highest standards of living in all of Europe and they are all quite beautiful.
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Off now.

tschüss
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Quoting Progster:
interesting area 45W 22N, obvious
cyclone aloft; in a shear col according to CIMMS, lots of convection...no model development though...


If you look at the shear maps... its 50 knots on either side (N & S).. I don't think it will last long

Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26516
interesting area 45W 22N, obvious
cyclone aloft; in a shear col according to CIMMS, lots of convection...no model development though...
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Quoting listenerVT:
Is Rick's coming and going the fastest a storm has gone from TS to Cat 5 and back again? That was amazing.


LOL I guess I should have scan back a bit your post is pretty much the same ... That must be a record
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Seismic Monitor

AOI

AOI

Humor in Comments
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26516
Quoting Grothar:


So you discovered Glhwein. In Scandinavian countries it is called Glgg. They add almonds or raisins to the other spices. The Germans get furious if you serve it to them that way. It is widely drunk in Europe.


OHHHH Yea I did. Didn't realize the potency of it 'til too late. LOL Great on a cold night at the Weihnachtsmarkt.

p.s. Only Glgg I got was from Ikea. lol Never made it to Scandanavia.
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Did Rick set a new record for the fastest from Cat 5 to Tropical storm ... shortest time.

Only 70mph now Baja can breath easier now
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953. beell
I'm wondering if a little of that dry air on each side of the Area of Great Interest will begin to ease into the Area of Great Interest. Hidden from view under all that high level moisture.
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Quoting Grothar:


Then with you in Maryland and she in Hawaii, it must truly be "Paradise" for her. Only kidding, you are a very nice person.

Exactly; & she's been good for my boy, and thank you.
Might turn in soon, good night and take care.
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Quoting PcolaDan:


Sorry, I added them in the comments section. They are interior shots.

And thank you.


So you discovered Glühwein. In Scandinavian countries it is called Glögg. They add almonds or raisins to the other spices. The Germans get furious if you serve it to them that way. It is widely drunk in Europe.
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could very well just meander i.e; drift into central america.
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949. beell
A festerer-er fer sure lol
Long as our low sits there it can survive the week. If it moves N now, it's done.
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Quoting beell:
I'm not sure ya'll can hold this post pace for 4-7 days.
Best wishes!


lol.

A festerer. Is that a word?
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947. beell
I'm not sure ya'll can hold this post pace for 4-7 days.
Best wishes!
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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