Rick weakens; Lupit headed to the Philippines; Western Caribbean brewing a storm?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:09 PM GMT on October 19, 2009

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Hurricane Rick has weakened significantly over the past 24 hours, thanks to moderate wind shear of 15 - 20 knots. Although still a powerful Category 3 hurricane with 125 mph winds, this is a far cry from the spectacular Category 5 hurricane with 180 mph winds and 905 mb pressure Rick was early Sunday morning. At that time, Rick was the second most powerful hurricane ever recorded in the Eastern Pacific. The only Eastern Pacific hurricane that was stronger was Hurricane Linda of 1997, which had 185 mph winds and a 902 mb pressure. Reliable satellite measurements of Eastern Pacific storms go back to about 1970, and Rick is the 11th Category 5 hurricane in the Eastern Pacific since 1970.


Figure 1.Hurricane Rick just after peak intensity at 17:55 UTC October 18, 2009. A this time, Rick was a Category 5 hurricane with 175 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

Recent microwave satellite imagery suggests that wind shear may have eaten away the southwest portion of Rick's eyewall, allowing dry air to intrude into the core of the storm. The Hurricane Hunters will visit Rick this afternoon to learn more, and I suspect Rick is weaker than the Category 3 hurricane with 125 mph winds that is currently advertised.

Wind shear will increase to the high range, 20 - 30 knots, in the 24 hours before landfall, and ocean heat content and sea surface temperatures will steadily decrease over the next two days as Rick approaches Baja. The latest GFDL and HWRF model runs put Rick at Category 1 strength at its closest approach to Baja, and this appears to be a reasonable forecast given the current appearance of Rick. NHC is currently giving both Cabo San Lucas and San Jose Cabo on Baja's southern tip a 20% chance of receiving hurricane-force winds from Rick. Rick will make a second landfall in Mainland Mexico on Wednesday night, and the moisture from Rick should reach southern Texas by Friday, possibly leading to heavy rains there on Friday and Saturday.

Typhoon Lupit a potential major disaster for the Philippines
Category 4 Super Typhoon Lupit has begun its turn to the west over the Philippine Sea, and is headed towards a landfall early Thursday morning on the northern portion of Luzon Island in the Philippines. Thanks to the departure of a trough of low pressure that was pulling the super typhoon to the northeast and creating a region of weak steering currents, a strong ridge of high pressure is now building in over Lupit and will force it slightly south of due west. The models are all in excellent agreement on the forecast track taking the super typhoon over northern Luzon as a major Category 3 or 4 typhoon, and Lupit--the Filipino word for cruel--is very likely to live up to its name. The northern Philippines are still reeling from the rains and mudslides unleashed by Super Typhoon Parma last week, which crossed over the northern Philippines three times, dumping over twenty inches of rain in many locations. Parma killed 438 people, and 51 are still missing. A week prior to Parma, Typhoon Ketsana brought the heaviest rains in 42 years to the capital of Manila, killing 420 people, with 37 still missing.


Figure 2. Rainfall forecast for Super Typhoon Lupit for the 24-hour period ending at 06 UTC Tuesday 10/20/09. Lupit is expected to dump 8 - 12 inches of rain (orange colors) in a small region near its center. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS.

Wind shear over Lupit is in the low range, 5 - 10 knots, and the typhoon is embedded in a very moist environment with warm sea surface temperatures of 28 - 29°C. Total heat content of the ocean is too low (20 kJ/cm^2) to permit much additional intensification over the next two days, but in the final 12 hours before landfall, the total oceanic heat content will rise to 80 kJ/cm^2, which should allow Lupit to retain at least Category 3 strength right up until landfall, despite interaction of the storm with land. Lupit will move relatively quickly over the Philippines, but the typhoon is likely to dump 12+ inches of rain over the already saturated soils of northern Luzon Island. These rains will create life-threatening flash floods and mudslides capable of killing hundreds more Filipinos.


Figure 3 Morning visible satellite image of the area of disturbed weather in the Western Caribbean.

A Western Caribbean tropical storm coming?
In the Atlantic, an area of disturbed weather has developed in the Western Caribbean from Costa Rica to the Cayman Islands, in association with the remains of a cold front, a tropical wave, and a broad 1010 mb low pressure region that has developed over the extreme southwestern Caribbean off the coast of Costa Rica. Last night's QuikSCAT pass showed that the low off the coast of Costa Rica had a broad and disorganized surface circulation. The thunderstorm activity associated with this large and complicated area of disturbed weather is disorganized and under 10 - 30 knots of wind shear, and any development over the next three days will be slow. However, by Friday, wind shear over the Western Caribbean is expected to drop significantly, and development of a tropical depression in the Western Caribbean becomes a more real possibility. Numerous runs over the past few days of all of our reliable global forecast models have shown a tropical depression developing in the Western Caribbean by early next week. The timing, location, and track of such a such a storm are all pretty hazy, but I think there is a 60% chance of a named storm forming in the Western Caribbean sometime in the next 10 days. The regions most likely to be affected by such a storm would be Honduras, Nicaragua, and the Cayman Islands, and it is possible that such a storm may stay trapped in the Western Caribbean for many days (as predicted by the GFS model). Alternatively, the storm could move steadily northwards after formation, affecting western Cuba, the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, South Florida, and the Bahamas. This is the solution preferred by the ECMWF model. In either case, a long period of disturbed weather is likely for the Western Caribbean. Heavy rains will affect northeast Honduras, eastern Nicaragua, and the Cayman Islands this week, and could spread to adjacent countries as the area of disturbed weather evolves.

Jeff Masters

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297. ackee
any body link latest ECMWF RUN
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ECMWF 12z takes it over South Florida as hurricane.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30563
The reason it wasnt as noticeable on the 00Z run is it appears that the 00Z run was a bit slower in the development at first, but seeing the longer range part that Drak showed and going back and looking at it, the 00Z ECMWF called for slow development at first and then a more rapid development as the system moves NNW between Jamaica and Cuba

All the other runs of the ECMWF have called for a more steady intensification

the track on all of them have been very consistent


12Z ECMWF at 168 hours
Quoting IKE:


I believe that like I believe it will snow tonight here.


Snow :)
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290. jipmg
guys look at the visible, I think we have a well defined surface circulation I say 82 W and 14.0N
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ECMWF has been very persistent on its track

moving NNE to NE near Jamaica then back to the North or NNW towards Cuba and the Florida straits
Quoting IKE:


I believe that like I believe it will snow tonight here.


lol
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30563
galveston 1900 hurricane was in fall, but not born in yucatan.
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burned i was stating hurricanes lol but hey i like your persistence i would probably hire a man like you, remind me alot of myself at your age i assume you are young?
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Quoting Drakoen:


Quasi stationary is like meandering.

That's what I thought.
I was thinking that an area had to attain at least TD status before it could be deemed to meander. Until then, it's ill-defined and thus quasi-stationary.
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284. IKE
Quoting Drakoen:


This morning's long-range GGEM took it up there lol


I believe that like I believe it will snow tonight here.
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Quoting IKE:


I never said where it was going. I know where it isn't going and that's here in the panhandle of Florida.


This morning's long-range GGEM took it up there lol
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30563
Quoting SAINTHURRIFAN:
burned how many do you remember hitting the usa this time of the year other than irene and wilma this late in oct. hey im getting old might have missed one.


a lot of the worst storms to hit the gulf coast were in fall and were born in the yucatan area. camille was, right? and opal. i always think of fall as the worst time for gulf coast hurricanes.
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281. IKE
Quoting Grothar:


Mitch, what about Mitch?????


Didn't look before 2000.
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met i do not have to be great in grammar my mba did not require it. plus most of us corp vps at nothrop grumman can barely read our own writing.thats why we have hundreds of admin aids to do it for us .
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Keith in 1988 didn't hit the US?

277. amd
this is a re-post from my posting yesterday, but IMHO, it is very relevant to the current discussion:

Speaking of climatology, during El Nino years since 1980, only 1 storm has formed in the Caribbean later than this point in the hurricane season.

Hurricane Gordon, November 7, 1994.

Two other storms since 1980 have formed in october in the caribbean during El Nino years, but they formed before October 19.

1987- Hurricane Floyd (10/09)
1991- Tropical Storm Fabian (10/15)

For those wondering, since 1980, El Nino years that have directly affected the tropical Atlantic hurricane season are:

1982, 1983, 1986, 1987, 1991-1994, 1997, 2002, 2004, 2006, and 2009.

Caveat: This is not a forecast for the system in the Caribbean, however it is meant to emphasize just how unusual development of a system in the SW Caribbean would be for an El Nino year in late October.
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like i said burned i already have 12000 my cupboard is full have a good day and if you live near the gulf coast and do not have to work go out and enjoy this beautiful weather have a blessed day.
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Quoting IKE:
2004 had none.


2005 October storms in that area....

Stan

Wilma

Beta


Mitch, what about Mitch?????
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26499
274. xcool


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273. IKE
Quoting SAINTHURRIFAN:
thaanks ike thiers 3 burned kieth in 88 did not hit the usa kieth in 2000 went from 9-28 till 10-6 and yep i forgot floyd but you have your mind made up so ike you are on your own i have 12000 hard headed adults working for me so i hate arguing lol. time for corp vp meeting to plan another meeting ike have a great day burned you to and met 101 get help!


I never said where it was going. I know where it isn't going and that's here in the panhandle of Florida.
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It seems the ralieghwx website has extended the time frame on their graphics for the ECMWF. Just realized that. Here's the ECMWF 00z for next week Tuesday:


Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30563
Quoting SAINTHURRIFAN:
thaanks ike thiers 3 burned kieth in 88 did not hit the usa kieth in 2000 went from 9-28 till 10-6 and yep i forgot floyd but you have your mind made up so ike you are on your own i have 12000 hard headed adults working for me so i hate arguing lol. time for corp vp meeting to plan another meeting ike have a great day burned you to and met 101 get help!


lol you discounted Opal for me cuz it was early October too, so sorry Keith is out in 2000 as well, same time frame

and Keith in 1988 did hit S Florida
yes the threat is they will let you out in public.
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thaanks ike thiers 3 burned kieth in 88 did not hit the usa kieth in 2000 went from 9-28 till 10-6 and yep i forgot floyd but you have your mind made up so ike you are on your own i have 12000 hard headed adults working for me so i hate arguing lol. time for corp vp meeting to plan another meeting ike have a great day burned you to and met 101 get help!
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I see it stronger than the previous run, near Jamaica on Sunday; this is slow mover it appears
264. IKE
2006 and 2007 had none.

2008 had Paloma.

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ECMWF 12z continues to show development.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30563
261. IKE
2004 had none.


2005 October storms in that area....

Stan

Wilma

Beta
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re 246, 247
Pls. chill, guys. Don't sweat the small stuff...and it's all small stuff. All the PACs are busy, or will be busy soon. There's real work to be done, so as someone said last night, it's kum-ba-yah time, Christmas is coming, Peace Out!
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Quoting SAINTHURRIFAN:
burned how many do you remember hitting the usa this time of the year other than irene and wilma this late in oct. hey im getting old might have missed one.


Juan. Kate, Gordon, Floyd (1987), Keith (1988)

Also Keith from 2000 that you are citing was in September not October
Quoting leftovers:
columbus's autobiography he said he was caught in a 7 day storm near where the disturbance is today this system might not move at all either just festering barely surviving throughout this week and into next wk


I don't believe Columbus ever made it that far into the Caribbean. The storm he was in was near Hispaniola, maybe a little west.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26499
i was talking about the usa burned paloma michelle did not hit the usa not to disrespect the ones it did hit. also opal hit in early oct this is mid oct to late oct. thats why i say far more hit the yuc and drift into the pacific than hit the us you said it wilma and irene thats all i remember hitting us as hurricanes this late in oct help ike the only reason i blogged was to back you up lol.
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254. IKE
Storms in that area from 2000-2003(October)(I started looking at this decade)....
















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Seismic Monitor

AOI

AOI

Humor in Comments
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burned how many do you remember hitting the usa this time of the year other than irene and wilma this late in oct. hey im getting old might have missed one.
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how about Irene, Michelle, Paloma, Wilma, Opal

all moved North or Northeast
My Temps for the month
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Quoting SAINTHURRIFAN:
burned stan beta kieth mitch thats just 4 off the top of my head and in my earlier post i was referring to jfv student met 101 aka nut.


that moved into the EPAC?

yea um no they didnt, they moved NW

Mitch also ended up hitting S Florida as well
burned stan beta kieth mitch thats just 4 off the top of my head and in my earlier post i was referring to jfv student met 101 aka nut.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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