Rick weakens; Lupit headed to the Philippines; Western Caribbean brewing a storm?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:09 PM GMT on October 19, 2009

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Hurricane Rick has weakened significantly over the past 24 hours, thanks to moderate wind shear of 15 - 20 knots. Although still a powerful Category 3 hurricane with 125 mph winds, this is a far cry from the spectacular Category 5 hurricane with 180 mph winds and 905 mb pressure Rick was early Sunday morning. At that time, Rick was the second most powerful hurricane ever recorded in the Eastern Pacific. The only Eastern Pacific hurricane that was stronger was Hurricane Linda of 1997, which had 185 mph winds and a 902 mb pressure. Reliable satellite measurements of Eastern Pacific storms go back to about 1970, and Rick is the 11th Category 5 hurricane in the Eastern Pacific since 1970.


Figure 1.Hurricane Rick just after peak intensity at 17:55 UTC October 18, 2009. A this time, Rick was a Category 5 hurricane with 175 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

Recent microwave satellite imagery suggests that wind shear may have eaten away the southwest portion of Rick's eyewall, allowing dry air to intrude into the core of the storm. The Hurricane Hunters will visit Rick this afternoon to learn more, and I suspect Rick is weaker than the Category 3 hurricane with 125 mph winds that is currently advertised.

Wind shear will increase to the high range, 20 - 30 knots, in the 24 hours before landfall, and ocean heat content and sea surface temperatures will steadily decrease over the next two days as Rick approaches Baja. The latest GFDL and HWRF model runs put Rick at Category 1 strength at its closest approach to Baja, and this appears to be a reasonable forecast given the current appearance of Rick. NHC is currently giving both Cabo San Lucas and San Jose Cabo on Baja's southern tip a 20% chance of receiving hurricane-force winds from Rick. Rick will make a second landfall in Mainland Mexico on Wednesday night, and the moisture from Rick should reach southern Texas by Friday, possibly leading to heavy rains there on Friday and Saturday.

Typhoon Lupit a potential major disaster for the Philippines
Category 4 Super Typhoon Lupit has begun its turn to the west over the Philippine Sea, and is headed towards a landfall early Thursday morning on the northern portion of Luzon Island in the Philippines. Thanks to the departure of a trough of low pressure that was pulling the super typhoon to the northeast and creating a region of weak steering currents, a strong ridge of high pressure is now building in over Lupit and will force it slightly south of due west. The models are all in excellent agreement on the forecast track taking the super typhoon over northern Luzon as a major Category 3 or 4 typhoon, and Lupit--the Filipino word for cruel--is very likely to live up to its name. The northern Philippines are still reeling from the rains and mudslides unleashed by Super Typhoon Parma last week, which crossed over the northern Philippines three times, dumping over twenty inches of rain in many locations. Parma killed 438 people, and 51 are still missing. A week prior to Parma, Typhoon Ketsana brought the heaviest rains in 42 years to the capital of Manila, killing 420 people, with 37 still missing.


Figure 2. Rainfall forecast for Super Typhoon Lupit for the 24-hour period ending at 06 UTC Tuesday 10/20/09. Lupit is expected to dump 8 - 12 inches of rain (orange colors) in a small region near its center. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS.

Wind shear over Lupit is in the low range, 5 - 10 knots, and the typhoon is embedded in a very moist environment with warm sea surface temperatures of 28 - 29°C. Total heat content of the ocean is too low (20 kJ/cm^2) to permit much additional intensification over the next two days, but in the final 12 hours before landfall, the total oceanic heat content will rise to 80 kJ/cm^2, which should allow Lupit to retain at least Category 3 strength right up until landfall, despite interaction of the storm with land. Lupit will move relatively quickly over the Philippines, but the typhoon is likely to dump 12+ inches of rain over the already saturated soils of northern Luzon Island. These rains will create life-threatening flash floods and mudslides capable of killing hundreds more Filipinos.


Figure 3 Morning visible satellite image of the area of disturbed weather in the Western Caribbean.

A Western Caribbean tropical storm coming?
In the Atlantic, an area of disturbed weather has developed in the Western Caribbean from Costa Rica to the Cayman Islands, in association with the remains of a cold front, a tropical wave, and a broad 1010 mb low pressure region that has developed over the extreme southwestern Caribbean off the coast of Costa Rica. Last night's QuikSCAT pass showed that the low off the coast of Costa Rica had a broad and disorganized surface circulation. The thunderstorm activity associated with this large and complicated area of disturbed weather is disorganized and under 10 - 30 knots of wind shear, and any development over the next three days will be slow. However, by Friday, wind shear over the Western Caribbean is expected to drop significantly, and development of a tropical depression in the Western Caribbean becomes a more real possibility. Numerous runs over the past few days of all of our reliable global forecast models have shown a tropical depression developing in the Western Caribbean by early next week. The timing, location, and track of such a such a storm are all pretty hazy, but I think there is a 60% chance of a named storm forming in the Western Caribbean sometime in the next 10 days. The regions most likely to be affected by such a storm would be Honduras, Nicaragua, and the Cayman Islands, and it is possible that such a storm may stay trapped in the Western Caribbean for many days (as predicted by the GFS model). Alternatively, the storm could move steadily northwards after formation, affecting western Cuba, the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, South Florida, and the Bahamas. This is the solution preferred by the ECMWF model. In either case, a long period of disturbed weather is likely for the Western Caribbean. Heavy rains will affect northeast Honduras, eastern Nicaragua, and the Cayman Islands this week, and could spread to adjacent countries as the area of disturbed weather evolves.

Jeff Masters

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Ike - that high in the MOB long range would be over Georgia probably? :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
446. IKE
Mobile,AL...

"LONG TERM [TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY]...HEADING INTO THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK THE WEATHER FORECAST TRANSITIONS FROM ONE THAT HAS BEEN
COOL AND DRY TO ONE THAT LOOKS TO BECOME MORE WET MAINLY BY THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. WITH THE HIGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST/MID
ATLANTIC...MOVING MORE TO THE EAST BY THU...DEEP GULF MOISTURE OPENS
UP AND OVERSPREADS THE GULF COAST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT MOVES
EASTWARD OUT OF THE PLAINS. IT APPEARS THE MOST ACTIVE WINDOW FOR
TSTMS COMES LATE THU THROUGH FRI AM. WE COULD SEE ENOUGH CHANGE IN
WIND DIRECTION IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE TO SUPPORT SOME
ROTATING TSTM UPDRAFTS. THE MITIGATING FACTOR THOUGH FOR SEVERE WEATHER
WILL BE LIMITED INSTABILITY AND LACK OF STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS LATE
THU/FRI. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OKLAHOMA DOES NOT SEE
ENOUGH OF A THREAT AT THIS TIME TO WARRANT A RISK AREA. THIS COULD
CHANGE THOUGH AS WE ARRIVE CLOSER TO THE EVENT. STAY TUNED. THERE IS
REASONABLE CONTINUITY BETWEEN THE 19.12 GFS/EURO AND CANADIAN GEM ON
THE PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT TO TWEAK THE EXTENDED RANGE
POP/WX...MOVING WET WEATHER OUT MORE QUICKLY BY LATE FRIDAY.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...A NICE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES. WE DID NOT MAKE ANY
CHANGES TO WEEKEND TEMPERATURES ON THIS PACKAGE. WOULDN`T BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENT TO HIGHS A BIT BY SATURDAY ON
LATER SHIFTS...GIVEN THE PRESENTATION OF THE RIDGE WE CURRENTLY SEE
IN THE LATEST FORECAST...BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST."
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so tell me..when can i start putting my hurricane shutters. my husband is a little lazy this year.he wanted to put the halloween witches up..4 years ago we did and 2 days later we had to take it down for "wilma"..
Member Since: August 18, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 192
Quoting dolphingalrules:
for me 4 bottles of vodka
4 limes
1 bottle of tylenol
and a prayer

so late in the season..please no!!


do we need a Weather Underground AA class?? haha
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443. jipmg
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Looks like no major shot of cold air for our area (West Palm / Lake Worth) in the next ten days:

Oct 19 Tonight
Partly cloudy. Low 68F. Winds NE at 15 to 25 mph.
Oct 20 Tomorrow
Partly to mostly cloudy skies with a few showers possible. High 83F. Winds ENE at 15 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 30%.
Oct 20 Tomorrow night
Partly to mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Low 73F. Winds ENE at 15 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 30%.
Oct 21 Wednesday
Times of sun and clouds. Highs in the mid 80s and lows in the mid 70s.
Oct 22 Thursday
Some sun with a few showers possible. Highs in the mid 80s and lows in the mid 70s.
Oct 23 Friday
Mostly cloudy, chance of showers. Highs in the upper 80s and lows in the mid 70s.
Oct 24 Saturday
Isolated thunderstorms. Highs in the low 90s and lows in the mid 70s.
Oct 25 Sunday
Scattered thunderstorms. Highs in the mid 80s and lows in the low 70s.
Oct 26 Monday
A few thunderstorms possible. Highs in the mid 80s and lows in the low 70s.
Oct 27 Tuesday
Scattered thunderstorms possible. Highs in the mid 80s and lows in the low 70s.
Oct 28 Wednesday
Scattered thunderstorms possible. Highs in the mid 80s and lows in the low 70s.


there might be one by the upcoming weekend..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Looks like no major shot of cold air for our area (West Palm / Lake Worth) in the next ten days:

Oct 19 Tonight
Partly cloudy. Low 68F. Winds NE at 15 to 25 mph.
Oct 20 Tomorrow
Partly to mostly cloudy skies with a few showers possible. High 83F. Winds ENE at 15 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 30%.
Oct 20 Tomorrow night
Partly to mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Low 73F. Winds ENE at 15 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 30%.
Oct 21 Wednesday
Times of sun and clouds. Highs in the mid 80s and lows in the mid 70s.
Oct 22 Thursday
Some sun with a few showers possible. Highs in the mid 80s and lows in the mid 70s.
Oct 23 Friday
Mostly cloudy, chance of showers. Highs in the upper 80s and lows in the mid 70s.
Oct 24 Saturday
Isolated thunderstorms. Highs in the low 90s and lows in the mid 70s.
Oct 25 Sunday
Scattered thunderstorms. Highs in the mid 80s and lows in the low 70s.
Oct 26 Monday
A few thunderstorms possible. Highs in the mid 80s and lows in the low 70s.
Oct 27 Tuesday
Scattered thunderstorms possible. Highs in the mid 80s and lows in the low 70s.
Oct 28 Wednesday
Scattered thunderstorms possible. Highs in the mid 80s and lows in the low 70s.


yea as usual the met offices have different opinions as to how far south the front will come

While Miami says possibly the front makes it all the way south, your forecast shows no front even making it past your area
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for me 4 bottles of vodka
4 limes
1 bottle of tylenol
and a prayer

so late in the season..please no!!
Member Since: August 18, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 192
Looks like no major shot of cold air for our area (West Palm / Lake Worth) in the next ten days:

Oct 19 Tonight
Partly cloudy. Low 68F. Winds NE at 15 to 25 mph.
Oct 20 Tomorrow
Partly to mostly cloudy skies with a few showers possible. High 83F. Winds ENE at 15 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 30%.
Oct 20 Tomorrow night
Partly to mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Low 73F. Winds ENE at 15 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 30%.
Oct 21 Wednesday
Times of sun and clouds. Highs in the mid 80s and lows in the mid 70s.
Oct 22 Thursday
Some sun with a few showers possible. Highs in the mid 80s and lows in the mid 70s.
Oct 23 Friday
Mostly cloudy, chance of showers. Highs in the upper 80s and lows in the mid 70s.
Oct 24 Saturday
Isolated thunderstorms. Highs in the low 90s and lows in the mid 70s.
Oct 25 Sunday
Scattered thunderstorms. Highs in the mid 80s and lows in the low 70s.
Oct 26 Monday
A few thunderstorms possible. Highs in the mid 80s and lows in the low 70s.
Oct 27 Tuesday
Scattered thunderstorms possible. Highs in the mid 80s and lows in the low 70s.
Oct 28 Wednesday
Scattered thunderstorms possible. Highs in the mid 80s and lows in the low 70s.
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11002
I'm assuming Weatherstudent = Meteorology101 ?
UGH!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
438. IKE
Miami,FL. extended....

"IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY, THE SURFACE RIDGE
WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT FARTHER EAST ON FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE
SHORT WAVE IN THE ROCKIES MOVES INTO THE EASTERN STATES AND ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH SOUTH FLORIDA LATE IN THE
WEEKEND. THE GFS WITH EACH SUCCESSIVE MODEL RUN HAS BEEN DEEPENING
THIS TROUGH MORE AGGRESSIVELY. WHILE STILL NOT AMPLIFYING IT AS MUCH
AS THE LAST TROUGH, IT DOES DEEPEN IT MORE SIGNIFICANTLY AND NOW
SHOWS A HINT THAT THE FRONT MAY MOVE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA ON SUNDAY
AND BE SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION BY MONDAY. BUT FOR NOW UNTIL WE SEE
MORE CONSISTENCY BETWEEN MODEL RUNS, WILL ONLY SHOW ISOLATED POPS
FOR THE WEEKEND WITH A COUPLE OF DEGREES OF COOLING."
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Quoting TampaSpin:


It will be all about timing......


yea, isnt it always about the timing in the tropics? lol
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Quoting TampaSpin:
BBL going on a bike ride......wow is the weather nice.....


have fun!
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BBL going on a bike ride......wow is the weather nice.....
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20439
Quoting JLPR:
wow Rick is not looking healthy
it strengthen very quickly and weakened very quickly too xD

Shear is to a hurricane as hangovers are to people's moods.
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Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:


That next front may not have much of an impact at all; looking at the ECMWF, the system is still near Jamaica at that point


It will be all about timing......
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20439
432. jipmg
Quoting JLPR:
wow Rick is not looking healthy
it strengthen very quickly and weakened very quickly too xD


a near naked swirl with 105mph winds
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Quoting TampaSpin:
I would have to say that with most Models showing some form of develpment....(which has not happened all Year)...Development will probably occur....It will be about timing if something does develop as the approach of another cold front comes to the South in about 7 days clearing Florida....which would keep most things away for Florida....



That next front may not have much of an impact at all; looking at the ECMWF, the system is still near Jamaica at that point
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
430. xcool


Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15625
I would have to say that with most Models showing some form of develpment....(which has not happened all Year)...Development will probably occur....It will be about timing if something does develop as the approach of another cold front comes to the South in about 7 days clearing Florida....which would keep most things away for Florida....

Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20439
Quoting JLPR:
wow Rick is not looking healthy
it strengthen very quickly and weakened very quickly too xD


yeah, thats definitely a good thing!

evening JLPR
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
427. JLPR
wow Rick is not looking healthy
it strengthen very quickly and weakened very quickly too xD
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
426. jipmg
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


I would keep an eye on the area west of 80W, and South of 15N
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Afternoon all: 3 things to note today, one of them weather related.

First of all, I'm going to give a brief summary of what I believe might happen in the Caribbean. I do think the ECMWF is the most likely scenario, while the GFS isn't very likely but possible. I'm going in line with the ECMWF, developing by Saturday and head N-NE there on forth, at the strongest a Category 1 Hurricane with some threat to Florida and Cuba.

Also, some of fellow Floridians may have heard that in 8 days the first flight of the replacement of the Ares I will launch, the replacement for the space shuttle. Its rolling out tonight, very historic although the winds are a tad bit high. This is a key step in the pathway to again land a man on the moon again. Launch October 27th, 2009 at exactly 8:00:00 a.m EDT. Godspeed!

Then some of you may remember about when I said I might be getting deployed to the Persian Gulf in early December and I said I wouldn't get information on paper until later.. it does appear that I won't be going to the Persian Gulf and its on paper, unless I get further information stating otherwise I'm staying on dry land! Although, I'd love with my very heart to protect my country.. I just hope for the best in regards to the troops out there right now, I know a lot of them. Everywhere from an E2 to an 04.
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Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11002
422. IKE
Quoting StormW:


Looks like it Tim. It's slowly developing as a matter of fact. It's hard to tell, but if you look close at RGB satellite loop imagery, it has become ever so slightly better organized. If that upper level anticyclone hangs around where it's at through the night, I expect it to be designated. The upper anticyclone has stuck around a little longer than I thought.


I agree StormW....The return of MJO usually also tends to relax Shear.......
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20439
Quoting Patrap:


Why,havent ya heard?,..were gonna switch the Game to the Dome as Miami is Expecting a Hurricane Sunday.

Well,...that's what I heard on the ol internet's,and we know that has to be true.



no, the Hurricanes play on Saturdays.. :)

Go Dolphins! we only need 84 points to tie!

please.. let us escape the hurricane season unscathed
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Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:


My preparation

4 bottles of rum.....CHECK
4 bottles of vodka....CHECK
10 bags of popcorn....CHECK
1 new liver.....CHECK


Hmmm, a mix of vodka and rum...

And you're only stocking up with ONE new liver?
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TampaSpins Tropical Update....NEED TO WATCH THE CARIBBEAN VERY CLOSE!




Plenty hot of a Major.
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20439
Quoting duajones78413:
If the storm in the Carribean does indeed develop, what at the chances it makes it to the western GOM?



vary lttle too none
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Quoting jipmg:


isn't that area behind the remnant cold front?


I believe it still embedded.
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20439
414. jipmg
Quoting duajones78413:
If the storm in the Carribean does indeed develop, what at the chances it makes it to the western GOM?


Unlikely
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If the storm in the Carribean does indeed develop, what at the chances it makes it to the western GOM?
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Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:


My preparation

4 bottles of rum.....CHECK
4 bottles of vodka....CHECK
10 bags of popcorn....CHECK
1 new liver.....CHECK


4 bottles of rum- $$

4 bottles of vodka- $$

ten bags of popcorn- $

this blog- priceless!
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Quoting mikatnight:
"...Lupit--the Filipino word for cruel..."

Wonder why we don't give our storms nastier sounding names? If Hurricane Craponyourhead was coming, you can bet people would take precautions...


How About Apocalypse, Nuclear, Killer... I can see the newscasts now.

What is conventional wisdom saying about this situation devloping or not developing byt he yucatan???
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410. jipmg
Quoting TampaSpin:
402. StormW 4:02 PM EDT on October 19, 2009

Looks like Shear has dropped some StormW....also interesting to see that the Convergence and the 850mb vorticity in stacked very well......sign of develpment near that area in my opinion.....





isn't that area behind the remnant cold front?
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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Don't make fun of me Matt. Here I am getting ready for a fun night of weather talk! Link


My preparation

4 bottles of rum.....CHECK
4 bottles of vodka....CHECK
10 bags of popcorn....CHECK
1 new liver.....CHECK
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
402. StormW 4:02 PM EDT on October 19, 2009

Looks like Shear has dropped some StormW....also interesting to see that the Convergence and the 850mb vorticity in stacked very well......sign of develpment near that area in my opinion.....



Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20439
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Don't make fun of me Matt. Here I am getting ready for a fun night of weather talk! Link


omg! LMAO
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Quoting tornadodude:


it will look pretty good if you drink more ;)


Don't make fun of me Matt. Here I am getting ready for a fun night of weather talk! Link
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11002
405. Skyepony (Mod)
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URPN12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 19th day of the month at 19:34Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 302)
Storm Number & Year: 20E in 2009
Storm Name: Rick (flight in the Northeast Pacific basin)
Mission Number: 1
Observation Number: 16
A. Time of Center Fix: 19th day of the month at 19:08:20Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 18°18'N 111°38'W (18.3N 111.6333W) (View map)
B. Center Fix Location: 336 miles (540 km) to the SSW (200°) from Cabo San Lucas, Baja California Sur, México.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,883m (9,459ft) at 700mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 53kts (~ 61.0mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 20 nautical miles (23 statute miles) to the SE (142°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 228° at 72kts (From the SW at ~ 82.9mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 41 nautical miles (47 statute miles) to the SE (139°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 976mb (28.82 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 10°C (50°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,049m (10,003ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 15°C (59°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,042m (9,980ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 12°C (54°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 700mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 76kts (~ 87.5mph) in the northeast quadrant at 19:20:10Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 76kts (~ 87.5mph) in the northeast quadrant at 19:20:10Z
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Agree to disagree kids... it's ok.
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"...Lupit--the Filipino word for cruel..."

Wonder why we don't give our storms nastier sounding names? If Hurricane Craponyourhead was coming, you can bet people would take precautions...
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BAP, c'mon man, calm down a little?
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If anything was to develop in the Caribbean it could be SubTropical in nature in the beginning and make a transition to Tropical. The cold front trough might keep it from developing a warm core for a while....IMO
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20439
Quoting P451:


ROFL, nah, they were indeed yesterday's 12Z run and today's 12Z run.

*shrugs*

Anyways...it's no big deal.


12Z run yesterday appears to be a glitch or outlier since every other version of the ECMWF the last 3 days have developed this system

Again we will see
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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