Rick weakens; Lupit headed to the Philippines; Western Caribbean brewing a storm?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:09 PM GMT on October 19, 2009

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Hurricane Rick has weakened significantly over the past 24 hours, thanks to moderate wind shear of 15 - 20 knots. Although still a powerful Category 3 hurricane with 125 mph winds, this is a far cry from the spectacular Category 5 hurricane with 180 mph winds and 905 mb pressure Rick was early Sunday morning. At that time, Rick was the second most powerful hurricane ever recorded in the Eastern Pacific. The only Eastern Pacific hurricane that was stronger was Hurricane Linda of 1997, which had 185 mph winds and a 902 mb pressure. Reliable satellite measurements of Eastern Pacific storms go back to about 1970, and Rick is the 11th Category 5 hurricane in the Eastern Pacific since 1970.


Figure 1.Hurricane Rick just after peak intensity at 17:55 UTC October 18, 2009. A this time, Rick was a Category 5 hurricane with 175 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

Recent microwave satellite imagery suggests that wind shear may have eaten away the southwest portion of Rick's eyewall, allowing dry air to intrude into the core of the storm. The Hurricane Hunters will visit Rick this afternoon to learn more, and I suspect Rick is weaker than the Category 3 hurricane with 125 mph winds that is currently advertised.

Wind shear will increase to the high range, 20 - 30 knots, in the 24 hours before landfall, and ocean heat content and sea surface temperatures will steadily decrease over the next two days as Rick approaches Baja. The latest GFDL and HWRF model runs put Rick at Category 1 strength at its closest approach to Baja, and this appears to be a reasonable forecast given the current appearance of Rick. NHC is currently giving both Cabo San Lucas and San Jose Cabo on Baja's southern tip a 20% chance of receiving hurricane-force winds from Rick. Rick will make a second landfall in Mainland Mexico on Wednesday night, and the moisture from Rick should reach southern Texas by Friday, possibly leading to heavy rains there on Friday and Saturday.

Typhoon Lupit a potential major disaster for the Philippines
Category 4 Super Typhoon Lupit has begun its turn to the west over the Philippine Sea, and is headed towards a landfall early Thursday morning on the northern portion of Luzon Island in the Philippines. Thanks to the departure of a trough of low pressure that was pulling the super typhoon to the northeast and creating a region of weak steering currents, a strong ridge of high pressure is now building in over Lupit and will force it slightly south of due west. The models are all in excellent agreement on the forecast track taking the super typhoon over northern Luzon as a major Category 3 or 4 typhoon, and Lupit--the Filipino word for cruel--is very likely to live up to its name. The northern Philippines are still reeling from the rains and mudslides unleashed by Super Typhoon Parma last week, which crossed over the northern Philippines three times, dumping over twenty inches of rain in many locations. Parma killed 438 people, and 51 are still missing. A week prior to Parma, Typhoon Ketsana brought the heaviest rains in 42 years to the capital of Manila, killing 420 people, with 37 still missing.


Figure 2. Rainfall forecast for Super Typhoon Lupit for the 24-hour period ending at 06 UTC Tuesday 10/20/09. Lupit is expected to dump 8 - 12 inches of rain (orange colors) in a small region near its center. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS.

Wind shear over Lupit is in the low range, 5 - 10 knots, and the typhoon is embedded in a very moist environment with warm sea surface temperatures of 28 - 29°C. Total heat content of the ocean is too low (20 kJ/cm^2) to permit much additional intensification over the next two days, but in the final 12 hours before landfall, the total oceanic heat content will rise to 80 kJ/cm^2, which should allow Lupit to retain at least Category 3 strength right up until landfall, despite interaction of the storm with land. Lupit will move relatively quickly over the Philippines, but the typhoon is likely to dump 12+ inches of rain over the already saturated soils of northern Luzon Island. These rains will create life-threatening flash floods and mudslides capable of killing hundreds more Filipinos.


Figure 3 Morning visible satellite image of the area of disturbed weather in the Western Caribbean.

A Western Caribbean tropical storm coming?
In the Atlantic, an area of disturbed weather has developed in the Western Caribbean from Costa Rica to the Cayman Islands, in association with the remains of a cold front, a tropical wave, and a broad 1010 mb low pressure region that has developed over the extreme southwestern Caribbean off the coast of Costa Rica. Last night's QuikSCAT pass showed that the low off the coast of Costa Rica had a broad and disorganized surface circulation. The thunderstorm activity associated with this large and complicated area of disturbed weather is disorganized and under 10 - 30 knots of wind shear, and any development over the next three days will be slow. However, by Friday, wind shear over the Western Caribbean is expected to drop significantly, and development of a tropical depression in the Western Caribbean becomes a more real possibility. Numerous runs over the past few days of all of our reliable global forecast models have shown a tropical depression developing in the Western Caribbean by early next week. The timing, location, and track of such a such a storm are all pretty hazy, but I think there is a 60% chance of a named storm forming in the Western Caribbean sometime in the next 10 days. The regions most likely to be affected by such a storm would be Honduras, Nicaragua, and the Cayman Islands, and it is possible that such a storm may stay trapped in the Western Caribbean for many days (as predicted by the GFS model). Alternatively, the storm could move steadily northwards after formation, affecting western Cuba, the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, South Florida, and the Bahamas. This is the solution preferred by the ECMWF model. In either case, a long period of disturbed weather is likely for the Western Caribbean. Heavy rains will affect northeast Honduras, eastern Nicaragua, and the Cayman Islands this week, and could spread to adjacent countries as the area of disturbed weather evolves.

Jeff Masters

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Also the NWS discussion is hinting a N to NW motion. This implies a N then NW motion, that should not bring it over land, though very close.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
496. IKE
Quoting RitaEvac:


So your saying another POOF system


LOL....nope....just making an observation.

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Quoting Patrap:
Rick was frightening..a AOI isnt.


could this invest move to the EPac though?
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Quoting Drakoen:
Things are really spinning in the southern Caribbean. The low pressure center has been stationary all day and has seen a modest increase in convection and increased low level vorticity.


agree
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Quoting stormpetrol:
I personally think a serious situation is developing in SW & NW caribbean, especially since this potential system looks like it might stall for days, frightning to say the least.


Until it has a pin hole eye... I wouldnt worry about it
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Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Rick was frightening..a AOI isnt.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127691
Things are really spinning in the southern Caribbean. The low pressure center has been stationary all day and has seen a modest increase in convection and increased low level vorticity.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29941
I personally think a serious situation is developing in SW & NW caribbean, especially since this potential system looks like it might stall for days, frightning to say the least.
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Quoting RitaEvac:


So your saying another POOF system


There is a chance for it to go over land but it eventually reemerge over water.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
The old squeeze play:

Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11012
Semper Fi....
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127691
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Afternoon all:
some of you may remember about when I said I might be getting deployed to the Persian Gulf in early December and I said I wouldn't get information on paper until later.. it does appear that I won't be going to the Persian Gulf and its on paper, unless I get further information stating otherwise I'm staying on dry land! Although, I'd love with my very heart to protect my country.. I just hope for the best in regards to the troops out there right now, I know a lot of them. Everywhere from an E2 to an 04.


With two Marine sons, I appreciate whenever someone steps up to the plate and is willing to serve our country.

Thanks and may God Bless You and all those currently serving and those who have served our country.
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Quoting IKE:
SYNOPSIS FOR CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC FROM 07N TO 22N
BETWEEN 55W AND 65W
530 PM EDT MON OCT 19 2009

.SYNOPSIS...N PORTION OF TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS W CARIBBEAN HAS
BEGUN TO MERGE WITH COLD FRONT FROM EASTERN CUBA TO N COAST OF
HONDURAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. FRONT WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AS
IT DRIFTS W THROUGH THU. BROAD 1007 MB LOW PRES OVER THE SW
CARIBBEAN NEAR 11N80.5W WILL MEANDER ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS AND GRADUALLY LIFT N TO NW LATE IN THE WEEK.



If it goes NW it will be over land eventually.



So your saying another POOF system
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Quoting iluvjess:


I do have a weather radio and several other TVs. I was just wondering. It was very odd. I was watching the TV, the weekely test began and I walked to the kitchen to retrieve a cold beverage. I could here the test. The siren changed from the normal emergency alert sound to one that was more high in pitch. I attempted to turn the volume down or change the channel to no avail. It is copletely unresponsive to any and all commands from the remote or buttons on the TV. It's a fairly new TV (probably less than 2years old) and I paid a pretty penny for it.


Maybe its the TV Rapture?
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127691
480. IKE
SYNOPSIS FOR CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC FROM 07N TO 22N
BETWEEN 55W AND 65W
530 PM EDT MON OCT 19 2009

.SYNOPSIS...N PORTION OF TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS W CARIBBEAN HAS
BEGUN TO MERGE WITH COLD FRONT FROM EASTERN CUBA TO N COAST OF
HONDURAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. FRONT WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AS
IT DRIFTS W THROUGH THU. BROAD 1007 MB LOW PRES OVER THE SW
CARIBBEAN NEAR 11N80.5W WILL MEANDER ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS AND GRADUALLY LIFT N TO NW LATE IN THE WEEK.



If it goes NW it will be over land eventually.

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Quoting Patrap:



Neg..but default to your NOAA Weather Radio.
You do have a NOAA weather radio?


I do have a weather radio and several other TVs. I was just wondering. It was very odd. I was watching the TV, the weekely test began and I walked to the kitchen to retrieve a cold beverage. I could here the test. The siren changed from the normal emergency alert sound to one that was more high in pitch. I attempted to turn the volume down or change the channel to no avail. It is copletely unresponsive to any and all commands from the remote or buttons on the TV. It's a fairly new TV (probably less than 2years old) and I paid a pretty penny for it.
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Quoting RitaEvac:
more like December 21st 2012


Santa Wants to deliver an early Christmas presant...A Hypercane(get's rid of the whiners lol).
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Nice outflow Boundary as well noted.

But you didnt hear that from me 456.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127691
Rotation starting to get more evident on satellites for SO CAR AOI.
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Quoting iluvjess:
I have a TV that stopped functioning during a test of the emergency broadcast. Can I hold them accountable?



Neg..but default to your NOAA Weather Radio.
You do have a NOAA weather radio?
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127691
Cyclonic turning evident on visible imagery. Lowest central pressure near the focal point - 1006 mb, 1 mb lower than yesterday at this time.




Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
I have a TV that stopped functioning during a test of the emergency broadcast. Can I hold them accountable?
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East coast/West coast/Gulf coast Tsunamis all at once
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Mayan Calenders still selling Briskly,..worldwide.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127691
more like December 21st 2012
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Thats actually not a bad prediction
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June 16th,2010
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127691
When are watches and warnings going up?
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..er,not everybody,but Thats the Main Blog fer yas..


Destroying the Peninsula,one Post at a Time.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127691
I go to the NHC site.....Dead silence, Nuttin. I come in here, everybody yapping and seems to be a major storm getting ready to hit Florida.
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Quoting tornadofan:
Ike - that high in the MOB long range would be over Georgia probably? :)


Na...much farther south across Central Florida. It looks to move into the GOM behind the front then center over the Florida Peninsula.
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A nice shear pattern

Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Quoting Patrap:


Cuz they have a Protocol like Most Centers as well.

Outflow boundaries noted in the Viz on the AOI.
Nothing has formed ,nor is it gonna happen fast either.

Aha! Thanks Pat.
Member Since: August 3, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 5537
G aft' 456
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127691
supposed to be 71 here on Wednesday, then 50 on saturday.

hey 456
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Good afternoon all
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
From Forecast Discussion Indy-
ALTHOUGH GFS LOOKS TOO INTENSE
WITH SYSTEM ON SAT...BOTH GFS AND 00Z EURO STILL SHOW COLD TEMPS
ALOFT MOVING IN ON SAT. WENT CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN THEN.
WITH THE UNCERTAINTIES DID NOT CUT TEMPS DOWN TOO LOW YET
SAT...BUT IF COLDER RUNS WIN OUT IT COULD BE ANOTHER COLD WEEKEND
FOR THE AREA.

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Lupit Rainbow Floater Loop with TFP's
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127691
Quoting CosmicEvents:
While the consensus here already has a hurricane hitting the CONUS.....I'm not surprised that the NHC is quiet, but how do we explain the fact that the Navy hasn't even declared an invest?


Cuz they have a Protocol like Most Centers as well.

Outflow boundaries noted in the Viz on the AOI.
Nothing has formed ,nor is it gonna happen fast either.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127691
Lupid AVN Image

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127691
While the consensus here already has a hurricane hitting the CONUS.....I'm not surprised that the NHC is quiet, but how do we explain the fact that the Navy hasn't even declared an invest?
Member Since: August 3, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 5537
452. IKE
Rick is falling apart...fast.

...RICK CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WEAKEN...
2:00 PM PDT Mon Oct 19
Location: 18.5%uFFFDN 111.7%uFFFDW
Max sustained: 100 mph
Moving: NNW at 7 mph
Min pressure: 976 mb



HURRICANE RICK DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202009
200 PM PDT MON OCT 19 2009

DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT RICK HAS WEAKENED QUICKLY.
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451. JLPR
Quoting jipmg:


a near naked swirl with 105mph winds


yeah that's one heck of a swirl =P

Quoting jeffs713:

Shear is to a hurricane as hangovers are to people's moods.


ha! nice one xD
-----
Hey Matt
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Ricky wanes in Convection as he finds cooler SST's

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127691
449. IKE
Quoting tornadofan:
Ike - that high in the MOB long range would be over Georgia probably? :)


It says "building in from the west". Maybe it winds up in GA. after moving east.

HPC has it centered in Tennessee on Saturday and moves it ENE on Sunday.
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From Tallahassee extended:

BY MONDAY MORNING...FRONT IS STATIONARY ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. UPPER JET HAS PARKED ITSELF ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. GFS AND ECMWF REMAIN
DRY ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA AND MOIST ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH THAT THIS WILL REMAIN SO. THEREFORE...HAVE
ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE GRIDS ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA AND COASTAL WATERS ON MONDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE A TROPICAL
CYCLONE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AT THIS TIME. SOMETHING TO WATCH OVER THE NEXT WEEK OR SO
.

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Ike - that high in the MOB long range would be over Georgia probably? :)
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.