Second warmest September on record for the globe

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:49 PM GMT on October 16, 2009

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The globe recorded its second warmest September since record keeping began in 1880, according to NOAA's National Climatic Data Center. The combined global land and ocean temperature anomaly was 0.62°C (1.12°F), falling only 0.04°C (0.07°F) short of tying the record set in 2005. NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies also rated September 2009 as the 2nd warmest September on record, falling 0.02°C short of the record set in 2005. It was the 33rd consecutive September with a global temperature above the 20th century average. NOAA rated the year-to-date period, January - September 2009, as the sixth warmest such period on record. The September satellite-measured temperatures for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were the 2nd warmest on record, behind 1998. Global ocean Sea Surface Temperature (SST) anomalies, however, cooled a bit, and were the 5th warmest on record. Global SSTs were the warmest on record during the Northern Hemisphere summer, June - August.


Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for September 2009. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center.

A warm September for the U.S., and record heat in the West
For the contiguous U.S., the average September temperature was 1.0°F above average, making it the 32nd warmest September in the 115-year record, according to the National Climatic Data Center. The West had is warmest September on record, with Nevada and California recording their warmest September, and six other western states observing a top-ten warmest September--Montana (3rd warmest), North Dakota (3rd), Idaho (4th), Utah (5th), Minnesota (6th), and Oregon (8th). However, a combination a slow-moving storm system during the beginning of the month and two surface cold fronts during the last week resulted in much below normal temperature averages in Kansas (10th coolest) and Oklahoma (11th coolest). The year-to-date (January - September) period was the 29th warmest such period for the contiguous U.S.

U.S. precipitation near average
U.S. precipitation in September was exactly average. Statewide-averaged rainfall was among the ten wettest for four southern states (Arkansas, 2nd wettest; Tennessee (5th), Mississippi (6th), and Alabama (6th)). Maine and Wisconsin each experienced their fourth driest September and both New Hampshire and Michigan had their seventh driest such periods.

U.S. drought
At the end of September, 15% of the contiguous United States was in moderate-to-exceptional drought. This is a drop from the 19% figure observed at the beginning of the year. Exceptional drought (the worst category of drought) was seen in South to Central Texas, though the area covered by exceptional drought shrank by 50% over the past month, thanks to much-needed rains over the region.

U.S. fire activity
During September, 5,535 fires burned approximately 378,523 acres, each of which was below the 2000 - 2009 average for the month. The acreage lost to wildfire was roughly half of the 2000 - 2009 average. For the year to date (January.September), 70,217 fires was slightly above the 10-year average, while acreage burned was slightly less than average.

Weak El Niño conditions continue
El Niño conditions continue over the tropical Eastern Pacific. Ocean temperatures in the area 5°N - 5°S, 120°W - 170°W, also called the "Niña 3.4 region", were 0.3°C above the threshold for a weak El Niño, according to the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center is maintaining an El Niño Advisory. Current conditions and model forecasts favor the continued development of a weak-to-moderate strength El Niño event into the Northern Hemisphere Fall 2009, with the likelihood of at least a moderate strength El Niño (3-month Niño-3.4 SST index of +1.0°C or greater) during the Northern Hemisphere Winter 2009-10.

September sea ice extent in the Arctic 3rd lowest on record
September 2009 Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent was the 3rd lowest since satellite measurements began in 1979, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC). Only 2007 and 2008 saw lower Arctic sea ice extent. Both the Northwest Passage and Northeast Passage melted free, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center. This marks the second consecutive year--and the second time in recorded history--both of these Arctic shipping routes have melted free. The past five years have had the five lowest Arctic ice extents on record. In their 2009 report on this year's Arctic sea ice minimum, NSIDC Director and Senior Scientist Mark Serreze said, "It's nice to see a little recovery over the past couple years, but there's no reason to think that we're headed back to conditions seen back in the 1970s. We still expect to see ice-free summers sometime in the next few decades". Only 19% of the ice cover this summer in the Arctic was over 2 years old, the least in the satellite record, and far below the 1981 - 2000 average of 52%. NSIDC Scientist Walt Meier said, "We've preserved a fair amount of first-year ice and second-year ice after this summer compared to the past couple of years. If this ice remains in the Arctic through the winter, it will thicken, which gives some hope of stabilizing the ice cover over the next few years. However, the ice is still much younger and thinner than it was in the 1980s, leaving it vulnerable to melt during the summer". Earlier this summer, NASA researcher Ron Kwok and colleagues from the University of Washington in Seattle published satellite data showing that Arctic ice thickness declined by 0.68 meters (2.2 feet) between 2004 and 2008. The overall mean winter thickness was 3.64 meters in 1980, and 1.89 meters during the winter of 2007 - 2008, a massive decrease of 48%.

References
Kwok, R., and D. A. Rothrock. 2009. Decline in Arctic sea ice thickness from submarine and ICESat records: 1958.2008, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L15501, doi:10.1029/2009GL039035.


Figure 2. Category 1 Typhoon Lupit in the Philippine Sea at 04:45 UTC October 16, 2009. Image credit: NASA MODIS Rapid Response System.

Tropical update
In the Atlantic, there are no threat areas to discuss, and none of the computer models is calling for tropical storm formation over the next week.

There are two potential serious threats in the Pacific. Tropical Storm Rick off the Pacific coast of Mexico is expected to recurve to the north and threaten Baja late next week. While Rick is expected to become a major hurricane early next week, the storm should weaken significantly before any potential landfall in Mexico, due to high wind shear and cooler ocean temperatures the storm will find as it approaches Baja.

More seriously, Typhoon Lupit in the Western Pacific is expected to intensify into a Category 4 typhoon and threaten the northern Philippines by Tuesday. Last week, Super Typhoon Parma crossed over the northern Philippines three times, dumping over twenty inches of rain in many locations. Over 300 people died in the resulting flash floods and landslides. A visit by Typhoon Lupit could create a major catastrophe in the northern Philippines as the storm dumps another 1 - 2 feet of rain on the already saturated soils.

My next post will be Sunday or Monday.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting jipmg:


yes I know, but you said hurricanes with a pressure of 910MB are generally assosiated with 175MPH WINDS, what would that make wilma since its pressure was 882MB?


The statistic I gave you came from averages and a satellite intensity chart. Let's say Wilma was over the open Atlantic with no way to measure her internal pressure, they would of gone with the standard wind/pressure intensity chart which dictates that a 175 mph hurricanes are associated with pressure between 910 and 921 mb. Wilma and Rick are two category 5's but Wilma's pressure and winds were never estimated, as oppose to Rick.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Quoting jipmg:


yes I know, but you said hurricanes with a pressure of 910MB are generally assosiated with 175MPH WINDS, what would that make wilma since its pressure was 882MB?
7.5 155 KTS 178 MPH 906 mb 879 mb 5 (136+ KTS)
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Quoting Weather456:
The eye temperature is about 15C while the coldest ring of thunderstorms is -80 to yield an E number of 6 plus 1/2 degree banding features which is BF 1.0-1.5. Thus

E-no + BF gives a CI of 7.0 - 7.5 or 7.3

`914mb in the Pacific is the same intensity as 935mb in the Atlantic so it would seem that even though the pressure might drop to the same as Wilma it would not necessarily mean it was the same intensity. Correct me if I am wrong please.
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Quoting AtlantaMET:


That is amazing! I thought only the experts could of perform that technique.


Umm He is an expert.
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Quoting Melagoo:


Talk about symmetrical


Geez this is one of the most perfect looking storms i have ever seen. Even Wilma, which holds the record for the north america Area, had a wobbling tiny eye. This one just looks perfect. Yet its only 906mb??
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1323. 1088391
wow! hurricane rick 180 mph 906 mb
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Most tracks still at Baja at 0 UTC (and some of these are really to be disregarded on a system like this, BAMS, for example)

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1320. jipmg
Quoting Weather456:


Wilma was 882 mb but that was recorded. Rick's current pressure is being estimated. HHs would of probably found a slightly lower pressure since satellite estimates have constraints.


yes I know, but you said hurricanes with a pressure of 910MB are generally assosiated with 175MPH WINDS, what would that make wilma since its pressure was 882MB?
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1316. Weather456 2:32 AM GMT on October 18, 2009
I am impressed.. on two counts... you gave a very good answer..and I understood it. Thank you very much.. I learnt something today :)
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Quoting jipmg:


what the heck was wilma? 882MB?


Wilma was 882 mb but that was recorded. Rick's current pressure is being estimated. HHs would of probably found a slightly lower pressure since satellite estimates have constraints.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Quoting Bordonaro:

The NHC Recon might actually go out:

000
NOUS42 KNHC 171430
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1030 AM EDT SAT 17 OCTOBER 2009
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 18/1100Z TO 19/1100Z 0CTOBER 2009
TCPOD NUMBER.....09-142

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK......NEGATIVE.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: PSBL FIX MISSION
ON HURRICANE RICK 19/1800Z NEAR 17.6N AND 111.6W.
WVW


Do we even have recon planes out west? If not that may be why a delay. Have to fly to west coast first, crew plus support people.
edit: All I can find are USAF out of Keesler and NOAA out of McDill.
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Quoting Orcasystems:


English please???
Is that techie for MONSTER?


It is a procedure use in the manual Dvorak technique

First find the eye temperature and then the temperature of the coldest cloud tops that form a ring around the eye. Not just the coldest cloud tops put the coldest cloud tops that form a ring. This should give you an eye number (E-no) when placed against a template. The highest eye number you give a storm using the infrared eye technique is E 6.0.

Then add the banding features (BF) which range from 0.5 to 2.0. In this case the banding 1/2 way around the center which is 1.3.

The CI number now is the E-no plus the BF number which is 6.0 1.3 to arrive at 7.3.

This is the infrared eye pattern only, you have the curve banding pattern (vis and IR), shear pattern (vis and IR), eye pattern (vis and IR), CDO pattern (vis only), embedded center pattern (IR only) and model expected T-number (MET), along with considerations, rules and constraints, you can effectively determine a cyclone intensity from satellite.

Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Rick's the 3rd strongest EPAC hurricane ever recorded.. behind Kenna and Linda. I think he might get below 900 at this rate.
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Quoting Weather456:
The eye temperature is about 15C while the coldest ring of thunderstorms is -80 to yield an E number of 6 plus 1/2 degree banding features which is BF 1.0-1.5. Thus

E-no BF gives a CI of 7.0 - 7.5 or 7.3



.............DOH! Well of course.
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post1282 wow
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1312. jipmg
Quoting Weather456:


Rick has the capabilities of intensifying further, I do not know if he will go below 900 mb.

175 mph is normally associated with 910-921 mb storms


what the heck was wilma? 882MB?
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1311. Melagoo


Talk about symmetrical
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For us simpletons :)


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Quoting presslord:
OK...What've I missed?


175 mph hurricane.
Member Since: August 24, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 72
hi guys I went out to a party what did I miss how is our possible carib invest
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...ruh roh...sounds like the Balloon Heads are in a spot o' trouble...
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Quoting Hurricane009:
IS that the equivalent pressure for a 175 mph hurricane?? Do you think pressure will drop below 900mb?


Rick has the capabilities of intensifying further, I do not know if he will go below 900 mb.

175 mph is normally associated with 910-921 mb storms
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Quoting Weather456:
The eye temperature is about 15C while the coldest ring of thunderstorms is -80 to yield an E number of 6 plus 1/2 degree banding features which is BF 1.0-1.5. Thus

E-no + BF gives a CI of 7.0 - 7.5 or 7.3



English please???
Is that techie for MONSTER?
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The eye temperature is about 15C while the coldest ring of thunderstorms is -80 to yield an E number of 6 plus 1/2 degree banding features which is BF 1.0-1.5. Thus

E-no + BF gives a CI of 7.0 - 7.5 or 7.3

Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
OK...What've I missed?
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Seismic Monitor

AOI

AOI

Humor in Comments
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Quoting Yalahaman:
So I would assume "El Nino" is amping up the wind shear in these fronts? Just curious. I am weatherly challenged:]


shear is a factor of frontal troughs whose frequency is a factor of El Nino years.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Incredible...175 mph

20091018.0130.goes11.x.ir1km_bw.20ERICK.150kts-914mb-149N-1053W.74pc.jpg

EP, 20, 2009101800, , BEST, 0, 149N, 1053W, 150, 914, HU, 64, NEQ, 40, 35, 25, 35, 1008, 225, 10, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, RICK, D,
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Quoting atmoaggie:
Amazing how much shear is present in a quality cold front...well not really if you think about it, but given what these normally look like in the middle of hurricane season...

So I would assume "El Nino" is amping up the wind shear in these fronts? Just curious. I am weatherly challenged:]
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Wow, Rick is very impressive. What a beautiful storm!
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Looks like he is moving west now


Very rare to see at CAT 5 in the E PAC or ATL Basin to start with! And it's almost 10-18! Rick is REALLY amazing, where will he max out at? Isn't there a report that indicates the potential wind speeds possible in the ATL & PAC Basin??
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1294. beell
Gosh, we don't get to use this one "for real" to often. 200-700mb

For storms less than 940mb and winds greater than 122 kts


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Quoting amd:


probably not. The main reason being that we do not have recon out there to give us a real estimate on pressure. Right now, we can only go by satellite estimation that currently shows this:

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
7.4 / 911.8mb/152.0kt




The NHC Recon might actually go out:

000
NOUS42 KNHC 171430
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1030 AM EDT SAT 17 OCTOBER 2009
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 18/1100Z TO 19/1100Z 0CTOBER 2009
TCPOD NUMBER.....09-142

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK......NEGATIVE.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: PSBL FIX MISSION
ON HURRICANE RICK 19/1800Z NEAR 17.6N AND 111.6W.
WVW
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Quoting Bordonaro:
Hurricane Rick 150KTS/173MPH at 914MB/26.99IN on October 17, 2009**

Link to the NRL Monterey Meteorological Division of the US Navy below:

Link
Looks like he is moving west now
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Amazing how much shear is present in a quality cold front...well not really if you think about it, but given what these normally look like in the middle of hurricane season...

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Quoting beell:


Should be at 8PM PDT 03Z if my math is correct.
Thanks
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I f anyone wants to read a good weather novel, i am reading "Catagory 7" and it is written by Bill Evans and Marianna Jameson. He also had input by Dr. Max Mayfield and Dr. Bob Sheets. I am sad to say it has bad language in it. Bill Evans has worked for several networks as a meteorologist and received an Outstanding Meteorologist Award from the National Weather Service. He has also hosted the National Huriicane Conference.
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Hurricane Rick 150KTS/173MPH at 914MB/26.99IN on October 17, 2009**

Link to the NRL Monterey Meteorological Division of the US Navy below:

Link
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1287. beell
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
When do they update info on Rick again on NHC site ?


Should be at 8PM PDT 03Z if my math is correct.
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Consistent lightning in Rick's core in the last set of frames.

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When do they update info on Rick again on NHC site ?
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Quoting JLPR:
Im gonna say wow O_O
last visible

OMG. Double wow !
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1283. beell
Gawd, I am so thankful this is not near my town.
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1282. JLPR
Im gonna say wow O_O
last visible

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1281. beell
Steering looks so weak for Rick. Kinda cruising NW around the periphery of the mid-level Conus ridge as it edges slowly east. Rick follows and turns N and NE. Rick stays slow until he starts to feel the tug of the next trough digging down over the 4-Corners area. Latest intensity guidance would put Rick at CAT2 (or greater) at landfall.

Regardless, If this stall/slow forwardspeed verifies, this thing is just gonna drop a ton of rain over coastal MX. May be the big story from Rick.
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Quoting Ameister12:
Good evening!

I see Rick has become the first category 5 hurricane in the eastern Pacific since Kenna in 2002.



odd... i'd think they would be more common, it's like bathwater south of mexico and never any shear.
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1279. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting Hurricane009:
Can anybody explain to a friend of mine how to get an image on his blog?


Upper right, under Dr Masters' recommended links.
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Quoting JRRP:



thanks for posting that... I'm bookmarking that site, seems like it has satellite anywhere in the world in near real time!
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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