Second warmest September on record for the globe

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:49 PM GMT on October 16, 2009

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The globe recorded its second warmest September since record keeping began in 1880, according to NOAA's National Climatic Data Center. The combined global land and ocean temperature anomaly was 0.62°C (1.12°F), falling only 0.04°C (0.07°F) short of tying the record set in 2005. NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies also rated September 2009 as the 2nd warmest September on record, falling 0.02°C short of the record set in 2005. It was the 33rd consecutive September with a global temperature above the 20th century average. NOAA rated the year-to-date period, January - September 2009, as the sixth warmest such period on record. The September satellite-measured temperatures for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were the 2nd warmest on record, behind 1998. Global ocean Sea Surface Temperature (SST) anomalies, however, cooled a bit, and were the 5th warmest on record. Global SSTs were the warmest on record during the Northern Hemisphere summer, June - August.


Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for September 2009. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center.

A warm September for the U.S., and record heat in the West
For the contiguous U.S., the average September temperature was 1.0°F above average, making it the 32nd warmest September in the 115-year record, according to the National Climatic Data Center. The West had is warmest September on record, with Nevada and California recording their warmest September, and six other western states observing a top-ten warmest September--Montana (3rd warmest), North Dakota (3rd), Idaho (4th), Utah (5th), Minnesota (6th), and Oregon (8th). However, a combination a slow-moving storm system during the beginning of the month and two surface cold fronts during the last week resulted in much below normal temperature averages in Kansas (10th coolest) and Oklahoma (11th coolest). The year-to-date (January - September) period was the 29th warmest such period for the contiguous U.S.

U.S. precipitation near average
U.S. precipitation in September was exactly average. Statewide-averaged rainfall was among the ten wettest for four southern states (Arkansas, 2nd wettest; Tennessee (5th), Mississippi (6th), and Alabama (6th)). Maine and Wisconsin each experienced their fourth driest September and both New Hampshire and Michigan had their seventh driest such periods.

U.S. drought
At the end of September, 15% of the contiguous United States was in moderate-to-exceptional drought. This is a drop from the 19% figure observed at the beginning of the year. Exceptional drought (the worst category of drought) was seen in South to Central Texas, though the area covered by exceptional drought shrank by 50% over the past month, thanks to much-needed rains over the region.

U.S. fire activity
During September, 5,535 fires burned approximately 378,523 acres, each of which was below the 2000 - 2009 average for the month. The acreage lost to wildfire was roughly half of the 2000 - 2009 average. For the year to date (January.September), 70,217 fires was slightly above the 10-year average, while acreage burned was slightly less than average.

Weak El Niño conditions continue
El Niño conditions continue over the tropical Eastern Pacific. Ocean temperatures in the area 5°N - 5°S, 120°W - 170°W, also called the "Niña 3.4 region", were 0.3°C above the threshold for a weak El Niño, according to the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center is maintaining an El Niño Advisory. Current conditions and model forecasts favor the continued development of a weak-to-moderate strength El Niño event into the Northern Hemisphere Fall 2009, with the likelihood of at least a moderate strength El Niño (3-month Niño-3.4 SST index of +1.0°C or greater) during the Northern Hemisphere Winter 2009-10.

September sea ice extent in the Arctic 3rd lowest on record
September 2009 Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent was the 3rd lowest since satellite measurements began in 1979, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC). Only 2007 and 2008 saw lower Arctic sea ice extent. Both the Northwest Passage and Northeast Passage melted free, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center. This marks the second consecutive year--and the second time in recorded history--both of these Arctic shipping routes have melted free. The past five years have had the five lowest Arctic ice extents on record. In their 2009 report on this year's Arctic sea ice minimum, NSIDC Director and Senior Scientist Mark Serreze said, "It's nice to see a little recovery over the past couple years, but there's no reason to think that we're headed back to conditions seen back in the 1970s. We still expect to see ice-free summers sometime in the next few decades". Only 19% of the ice cover this summer in the Arctic was over 2 years old, the least in the satellite record, and far below the 1981 - 2000 average of 52%. NSIDC Scientist Walt Meier said, "We've preserved a fair amount of first-year ice and second-year ice after this summer compared to the past couple of years. If this ice remains in the Arctic through the winter, it will thicken, which gives some hope of stabilizing the ice cover over the next few years. However, the ice is still much younger and thinner than it was in the 1980s, leaving it vulnerable to melt during the summer". Earlier this summer, NASA researcher Ron Kwok and colleagues from the University of Washington in Seattle published satellite data showing that Arctic ice thickness declined by 0.68 meters (2.2 feet) between 2004 and 2008. The overall mean winter thickness was 3.64 meters in 1980, and 1.89 meters during the winter of 2007 - 2008, a massive decrease of 48%.

References
Kwok, R., and D. A. Rothrock. 2009. Decline in Arctic sea ice thickness from submarine and ICESat records: 1958.2008, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L15501, doi:10.1029/2009GL039035.


Figure 2. Category 1 Typhoon Lupit in the Philippine Sea at 04:45 UTC October 16, 2009. Image credit: NASA MODIS Rapid Response System.

Tropical update
In the Atlantic, there are no threat areas to discuss, and none of the computer models is calling for tropical storm formation over the next week.

There are two potential serious threats in the Pacific. Tropical Storm Rick off the Pacific coast of Mexico is expected to recurve to the north and threaten Baja late next week. While Rick is expected to become a major hurricane early next week, the storm should weaken significantly before any potential landfall in Mexico, due to high wind shear and cooler ocean temperatures the storm will find as it approaches Baja.

More seriously, Typhoon Lupit in the Western Pacific is expected to intensify into a Category 4 typhoon and threaten the northern Philippines by Tuesday. Last week, Super Typhoon Parma crossed over the northern Philippines three times, dumping over twenty inches of rain in many locations. Over 300 people died in the resulting flash floods and landslides. A visit by Typhoon Lupit could create a major catastrophe in the northern Philippines as the storm dumps another 1 - 2 feet of rain on the already saturated soils.

My next post will be Sunday or Monday.

Jeff Masters

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1477. Skyepony (Mod)
Cloudsat down the right side of Rick, pretty impressive for so far from the center.
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Quoting Bordonaro:


I noticed that also, the incredible "shrinking eye". Kinda upset that the NHC is not going to put out another update till 4AM CDT :0((!!


thats probably why there has never been an official advisory abouve 185mph
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Quoting howarjo1943:
If anything looking at satellite, Rick amazingly is continuing to strengthen. He may be 185 or 190mph, sub 900mb by next advisory if that T-num keeps going up. Eye has been shrinking...


I noticed that also, the incredible "shrinking eye". Kinda upset that the NHC is not going to put out another update till 4AM CDT :0((!!
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Quoting btwntx08:

its rick lol :)

I better fix that :)!!
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rick roll...

Link
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If anything looking at satellite, Rick amazingly is continuing to strengthen. He may be 185 or 190mph, sub 900mb by next advisory if that T-num keeps going up. Eye has been shrinking...
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I am literally shocked that Hurricane Rick (not Fred) has intensified to the point of 180 MPH winds, 906MB, 26.75IN of mercury, on October 18, 2009.

My main concern is that IF he follows the projected path, there will possibly be SEVERE flooding in Mexico into SW Texas by mid/late week. The areas of Mexico that will be affected are mountainous, sparsely populated farming communities. Mountains add more lift, causing heavier rainfall, at the same time tearing Rick to shreds. They may not heed the issued warnings, or even worse yet, might not receive them at all and be in grave danger. Mainland Mexico into SW TX will receive the heaviest rain.

In Texas, the areas that MAY be affected right now is up in the air. The risk may be high for extensive Flash Flooding from the the remnants of Rick. One track takes it into N Central TX, which has already experienced flooding from heavy September and October rainstorms. IF Rick moves into S Central TX, flash flooding is likely as many areas are still in a severe drought. But they sure can use the rain, BUT not the floods!!

As things look now, Rick will hit Baja California as a CAT 2, move across the Gulf of California and hit mainland Mexico as a CAT 1 and be a TS all the way through Mexico. I am certain that NHC, the Mexican Weather Service and NWS offices in W and SW TX are closely watching this "absolutely beautiful MONSTER"!
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Quoting somemalayguy117:
In the other side of the Pacific:



Lupit's eye is looking better.

g9

Pretty strong shear south of Japan.

n
Good for them. shear is a bless after such a difficult year for the western pacific.
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They should make a Cat 6 for hurricanes >175 mph.
Member Since: August 24, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 72
Quoting Bordonaro:
Wilma was in a class of her own, everyone is right there. Super intense, super small eye, huge system, CDO satellite pics were and still are stunning....

Rick, albeit, is smaller in size, this BAD BOY is wound up tight..No EW replacement since one that appeared to take place much earlier in the day..

The scary part of this was this MONSTER is the remnants of 92L, that moved into S America and crossed over into the Pacific...
And it also tells you how favorable are the conditions in the pacific due to "el niño"and how hostiles are the conditions in atlantic also due to " el niño".Pacific low shear nice convergence and divergence,super hot waters, atlantic extremely high shear conditions, bad convergence and devergence waters in the most part favorable. But shear and dry air is and had been the main hinderig fact for systems to develop through out 2009 atlantic hurricane season.
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In the other side of the Pacific:



Lupit's eye is looking better.



Pretty strong shear south of Japan.

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Did the 00z ecmwf model run come out yet? Can someone post it?
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Wilma was in a class of her own, everyone is right there. Super intense, super small eye, huge system, CDO satellite pics were and still are stunning....

Rick, albeit, is smaller in size, this BAD BOY is wound up tight..No EW replacement since one that appeared to take place much earlier in the day..

The scary part of this was this MONSTER is the remnants of 92L, that moved into S America and crossed over into the Pacific...
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0z GFS - still doesn't show much in the Caribbean.

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Oh something i remembered about wilma, the HH weren't in her at peak intensity so it is likely the the sustained winds were actually higher the what is written down in the history books! It will be interesting if the HH go pay rick a visit tommorow :)
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Hey Weatherbro,...

I know the Typhoon you refer to,...if I'm not mistaken,..its typhoon Nancy,...1961, which recorded the 215 sustained winds,...but as I read more about it,..they said they discovered a flaw in either the instrumentation or their correlations,...and they concluded the value of 215 was not reasonable,...not sure what actual figure they eventually agreed on.

On the great laborday storm,..Kerry Emanuel has an excellent chapter on it,.in his book "Devine Wind",...as you said,...they revised the estimates when they analyzed the energy required to inflict the structural damage that occured. People caught in the open,..had their clothes literally sand-blasted off. He, "Emanuel" said the figure they calculated was 200 mph,..which is consistent with 892 mb. Matecumbe Key,..was literally scraped clean over night,...another interesting anecdote was the recorded min pressure,...a guy in the eye said his barometer read 880 mb,...the bottom of its ability,....he thought it was broken,...and threw it away :-)) Amazing,..they have to use the official record of 892 at landfall however. They think Wilma "may have" been at 880,..just briefly,...due to the time interval between measurements,..882 is the official number though. You mentioned about Camille being 190 at landfall,...apparently,..the correlation of min pressure in the eye,..and wind speed,..is not exact for a given latitude. The ratio of eye pressure to max winds is also affected by storm size,..and latitude. The further North you go,...you can get higher winds for a given pressure,..Camille still the record holder, (wind speed at landfall) had a landfall pressure of 909 I think,...but it was further north than the 1935 storm and Wilma,...Gilbert,...the last two had max winds of 185. The Large Typhoons TIP,...870 mb,...and winds of 190,...and enornmous size 1,300 miles yeeesh. The 190,..with such low pressure is due in part to its size.

Cool stuff.

Quoting weatherbro:
actually the 1935 hurricane originally was thought to only peak at 165MPH...Then 185. The latest estimates put it at 200MPH(gusts to 235MPH). Camile and Allen only made it to 190MPH. A typhoon(forgot the name off hand) in Japan's Harbor reached 215MPH years ago(with much higher gusts!

Let's see if this thing makes it to 200MPH! Man! I wonder how powerful hurricanes were during the medieval warming period! I bet they reached upwards to 240MPH!
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Quoting SouthDadeFish:
Where's recon when you need them? :( I'm pretty sure it has a pressure <900 millibars. This is one of the most beautiful tropical cyclones I have ever seen. Not quite on Wilma's level, but I would guess similar to Rita and near 895 millibars. But we'll never know without recon data :/


I was just thinking the same thing. We will prob never know how storg this storm gets :/
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Where's recon when you need them? :( I'm pretty sure it has a pressure <900 millibars. This is one of the most beautiful tropical cyclones I have ever seen. Not quite on Wilma's level, but I would guess similar to Rita and near 895 millibars. But we'll never know without recon data :/
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The remnants of 92L



ADT near 160 knots.

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
7.6 / 905.6mb/158.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
7.6 7.6 7.6



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Quoting CycloneOz:


U R not funny.

I'm sorry, I know you're a total pro.

It's been dreadful weather here, we're going to have another full day of it, so please chalk it up to cabin fever or being punch drunk from following the hurricanes all day. Good night and stay safe. I won't kid w/you again since you don't know I'm a total pro in a couple fields, as well. Not your fault.
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And can you believe rick grew out of 92l in the atlantic? It would have developed but South America got in the way.
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Quoting AwakeInMaryland:

Oz, I hear Balloon Boy's Daddy is available!


U R not funny.
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1447. Melagoo


Rick is in some hot water LOL

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Quoting CycloneOz:


I want to go. I'm ready to go. But I'm not going alone to this one.

So unless a chaser ponies up to be on a team with me down there...no way in hell I'm going to this one.

Even if this storm weakens to a Cat II at landfall on the Baja, it will do some serious business.

Every so many miles up Hwy 1, the road dips down into wide arroyos...Jim Edds and his team mate Jeff had a real problem with these during Jimena.

Going alone to a big storm like this making landfall in a foreign desert country on a two-lane no-shoulder road is death.

Oz, I hear Balloon Boy's Daddy is available!

Good night, everyone, this has really been an exciting day/night. Thank you all so much.
In my inexperienced opinion, Rick is even a more terrible beauty than Wilma -- visually, that is.
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1445. Melagoo
The SST aren't that much cooler as it gets to the Peninsula 26-27 from 29-30
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Quoting Meteorology101:
I see! Guys, don't these types of debates typically spark up the possibility of the saffir-simpson scale including a category 6 for hurricanes?


That came around back in 2005 after the manic activity. Thing is here.. nothing really is going to survive 156> mph winds with massive storm surge, so really no point to add another category in. IF there was a Category 6 I think it would be in the 190> Category, with a pressure of less than 900, and I think this would only be necessary if we start getting every other storm becoming stronger than Wilma.
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Guys,...

Some of you were speculating on how much stronger Rick could get. This link is great.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/#
For answering such questions. If you click on the Hurricane icon (the storm of interest) it gives you a map that shows SSTs, OHC, and,...most importantly in this case,..isoplots of max theoretical intensity that is min pressure in the eye,...right now Risk according to the Emanuel method, would max out at 880 mb and 160 knots. If conditions were perfect. So,..stay tuned,...its at 150 knots now,..geez. It only recently left the "iso-island" of pressure of 860 mb,...180 knots,...ahh,..timing is everything. Anyway for answering those kinds of hypotheticals,...that site from the University of Wisconsin is very useful. I lucked out actually,...as I was emailing Dr. Emanuel,...I managed to get his simulation program,..(no longer offered),..but its a blast,...you can play out every scenario you want,..well into the "hypercane regime". Gives you the ability to input wind shear,...SST, Stratosphere temp,...humidity,...the works,...very, very fun to play with. I managed to get one below 400 mb and 500 mph. But it took totally insane SSTs 37 deg. C,..and cloud tops of -85 C. Anyway,...the Wisconsin site is very handy. For some reason,..the OHC (Ocean heat content) tab is only working on the Atlantic basin right now,...they told me they're going to offer the OHC charts in the other basins soon. The NOOA site can give you TCHP if ya need it.

Happy Hurricaning.
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I saw where someone compared Rick to Dean. I think Rick looks a lttle more symmetrical than Dean and its CDO looks more similar to a sub 900mb Rita. In fact Rick may now be sub 900mb as I think organization has continued to increase since the last advisory. But not close to Wilma yet though. Wilma had a cold CDO you normally only see in exceptionally intense West Pac typhoons. Wilma=cat 6.
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1441. geepy86
Now that's funny winter123
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Quoting somemalayguy117:
Rick may strengthen more. So far three Category 5-equivalent tropical cyclones so far on Earth (Choi-wan, Mawar, Rick) and the strongest among them is...Rick (never gonna give you up, never gonna let you down).

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 18/0300Z 15.0N 105.9W 155 KT
12HR VT 18/1200Z 15.7N 107.8W 160 KT
24HR VT 19/0000Z 16.6N 110.0W 150 KT
36HR VT 19/1200Z 17.5N 111.5W 140 KT
48HR VT 20/0000Z 18.5N 112.0W 120 KT
72HR VT 21/0000Z 20.5N 111.5W 105 KT
96HR VT 22/0000Z 23.5N 110.0W 80 KT
120HR VT 23/0000Z 27.0N 106.0W 40 KT...INLAND






oh crap wunderground just got rick rolled
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Rick may strengthen more. So far three Category 5-equivalent tropical cyclones so far on Earth (Choi-wan, Melor, Rick) and the strongest among them is...Rick (never gonna give you up, never gonna let you down).

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 18/0300Z 15.0N 105.9W 155 KT
12HR VT 18/1200Z 15.7N 107.8W 160 KT
24HR VT 19/0000Z 16.6N 110.0W 150 KT
36HR VT 19/1200Z 17.5N 111.5W 140 KT
48HR VT 20/0000Z 18.5N 112.0W 120 KT
72HR VT 21/0000Z 20.5N 111.5W 105 KT
96HR VT 22/0000Z 23.5N 110.0W 80 KT
120HR VT 23/0000Z 27.0N 106.0W 40 KT...INLAND

Oops Melor not Mawar (Mawar is also a WPAC typhoon name, Typhoon Mawar of '05)



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According to the max wind and min pressure potential maps, Rick should max out between 180-200mph and 900-880mb. It will very soon be moving into an area with increasingly less potential for super intense hurricanes according to the maps.

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That whole area of Baja is just a dark brown sand that when combined with water makes a nice, thick, oozy mud.

120 mph winds at landfall? All that rain with it? My God...you can only imagine. Sandblasting and quicksand.
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Quoting gordydunnot:
Where is the Oz man. Hope he is ok and not just sleeping on the job.


I want to go. I'm ready to go. But I'm not going alone to this one.

So unless a chaser ponies up to be on a team with me down there...no way in hell I'm going to this one.

Even if this storm weakens to a Cat II at landfall on the Baja, it will do some serious business.

Every so many miles up Hwy 1, the road dips down into wide arroyos...Jim Edds and his team mate Jeff had a real problem with these during Jimena.

Going alone to a big storm like this making landfall in a foreign desert country on a two-lane no-shoulder road is death.
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i think the winds will maxs out any where from 185-200mph
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1433. Melagoo
...WITH 180 MPH WINDS...RICK BECOMES THE SECOND STRONGEST EASTERN
NORTH PACIFIC HURRICANE ON RECORD AFTER LINDA OF 1997...

INTERESTS IN SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF
MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SEVERE HURRICANE.

AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE RICK WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 15.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.9 WEST OR ABOUT 295 MILES
...475 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO AND ABOUT 605 MILES
...975 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO.

RICK IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR...
AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON SUNDAY. A GRADUAL TURN TO
THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH SHOULD BEGIN ON MONDAY.

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT RICK HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN...
AND THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOW ESTIMATED NEAR 180
MPH...285 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RICK IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS
CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE.
SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY ON SUNDAY.

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1432. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Philippines Atmospherical Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration

Typhoon "RAMIL" has gained more strength as it continues to slow down.

Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #5
===============================
At 11:00 AM PhST, Typhoon Ramil (Lupit) located at 17.2ºN 132.9ºE or 1,060 kms east southeast of Aparri, Cagayan has 10 minute sustained winds of 175 km/h (95 kts) with gustiness up to 210 km/h (110 kts).

Additional Information
======================
This disturbance will not affect any part of the country within the next 36 hours.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 PM today.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45731
Quoting Meteorology101:
What's going on?

Hurricane Rick became the 2nd strongest eastern Pacific hurricane ever.
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Wilma's intensity came from her pinhole eye... like a spinning ice skater speeds up as she brings her arms in. Rick's eye is definitely contracting now. We should see higher wind speeds before he undergoes an ERC.
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1429. JRRP
870mb??
Link
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1428. Drakoen
Quoting Hurricanes4life:
1419
As you can see Wilma>Rick... Both amazingly strong canes however


Correct. Rick is representative of a powerful Category 5 hurricane; Wilma is representative of an exceptionally powerful Category 5 hurricane.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30575

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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