Second warmest September on record for the globe

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:49 PM GMT on October 16, 2009

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The globe recorded its second warmest September since record keeping began in 1880, according to NOAA's National Climatic Data Center. The combined global land and ocean temperature anomaly was 0.62°C (1.12°F), falling only 0.04°C (0.07°F) short of tying the record set in 2005. NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies also rated September 2009 as the 2nd warmest September on record, falling 0.02°C short of the record set in 2005. It was the 33rd consecutive September with a global temperature above the 20th century average. NOAA rated the year-to-date period, January - September 2009, as the sixth warmest such period on record. The September satellite-measured temperatures for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were the 2nd warmest on record, behind 1998. Global ocean Sea Surface Temperature (SST) anomalies, however, cooled a bit, and were the 5th warmest on record. Global SSTs were the warmest on record during the Northern Hemisphere summer, June - August.


Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for September 2009. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center.

A warm September for the U.S., and record heat in the West
For the contiguous U.S., the average September temperature was 1.0°F above average, making it the 32nd warmest September in the 115-year record, according to the National Climatic Data Center. The West had is warmest September on record, with Nevada and California recording their warmest September, and six other western states observing a top-ten warmest September--Montana (3rd warmest), North Dakota (3rd), Idaho (4th), Utah (5th), Minnesota (6th), and Oregon (8th). However, a combination a slow-moving storm system during the beginning of the month and two surface cold fronts during the last week resulted in much below normal temperature averages in Kansas (10th coolest) and Oklahoma (11th coolest). The year-to-date (January - September) period was the 29th warmest such period for the contiguous U.S.

U.S. precipitation near average
U.S. precipitation in September was exactly average. Statewide-averaged rainfall was among the ten wettest for four southern states (Arkansas, 2nd wettest; Tennessee (5th), Mississippi (6th), and Alabama (6th)). Maine and Wisconsin each experienced their fourth driest September and both New Hampshire and Michigan had their seventh driest such periods.

U.S. drought
At the end of September, 15% of the contiguous United States was in moderate-to-exceptional drought. This is a drop from the 19% figure observed at the beginning of the year. Exceptional drought (the worst category of drought) was seen in South to Central Texas, though the area covered by exceptional drought shrank by 50% over the past month, thanks to much-needed rains over the region.

U.S. fire activity
During September, 5,535 fires burned approximately 378,523 acres, each of which was below the 2000 - 2009 average for the month. The acreage lost to wildfire was roughly half of the 2000 - 2009 average. For the year to date (January.September), 70,217 fires was slightly above the 10-year average, while acreage burned was slightly less than average.

Weak El Niño conditions continue
El Niño conditions continue over the tropical Eastern Pacific. Ocean temperatures in the area 5°N - 5°S, 120°W - 170°W, also called the "Niña 3.4 region", were 0.3°C above the threshold for a weak El Niño, according to the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center is maintaining an El Niño Advisory. Current conditions and model forecasts favor the continued development of a weak-to-moderate strength El Niño event into the Northern Hemisphere Fall 2009, with the likelihood of at least a moderate strength El Niño (3-month Niño-3.4 SST index of +1.0°C or greater) during the Northern Hemisphere Winter 2009-10.

September sea ice extent in the Arctic 3rd lowest on record
September 2009 Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent was the 3rd lowest since satellite measurements began in 1979, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC). Only 2007 and 2008 saw lower Arctic sea ice extent. Both the Northwest Passage and Northeast Passage melted free, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center. This marks the second consecutive year--and the second time in recorded history--both of these Arctic shipping routes have melted free. The past five years have had the five lowest Arctic ice extents on record. In their 2009 report on this year's Arctic sea ice minimum, NSIDC Director and Senior Scientist Mark Serreze said, "It's nice to see a little recovery over the past couple years, but there's no reason to think that we're headed back to conditions seen back in the 1970s. We still expect to see ice-free summers sometime in the next few decades". Only 19% of the ice cover this summer in the Arctic was over 2 years old, the least in the satellite record, and far below the 1981 - 2000 average of 52%. NSIDC Scientist Walt Meier said, "We've preserved a fair amount of first-year ice and second-year ice after this summer compared to the past couple of years. If this ice remains in the Arctic through the winter, it will thicken, which gives some hope of stabilizing the ice cover over the next few years. However, the ice is still much younger and thinner than it was in the 1980s, leaving it vulnerable to melt during the summer". Earlier this summer, NASA researcher Ron Kwok and colleagues from the University of Washington in Seattle published satellite data showing that Arctic ice thickness declined by 0.68 meters (2.2 feet) between 2004 and 2008. The overall mean winter thickness was 3.64 meters in 1980, and 1.89 meters during the winter of 2007 - 2008, a massive decrease of 48%.

References
Kwok, R., and D. A. Rothrock. 2009. Decline in Arctic sea ice thickness from submarine and ICESat records: 1958.2008, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L15501, doi:10.1029/2009GL039035.


Figure 2. Category 1 Typhoon Lupit in the Philippine Sea at 04:45 UTC October 16, 2009. Image credit: NASA MODIS Rapid Response System.

Tropical update
In the Atlantic, there are no threat areas to discuss, and none of the computer models is calling for tropical storm formation over the next week.

There are two potential serious threats in the Pacific. Tropical Storm Rick off the Pacific coast of Mexico is expected to recurve to the north and threaten Baja late next week. While Rick is expected to become a major hurricane early next week, the storm should weaken significantly before any potential landfall in Mexico, due to high wind shear and cooler ocean temperatures the storm will find as it approaches Baja.

More seriously, Typhoon Lupit in the Western Pacific is expected to intensify into a Category 4 typhoon and threaten the northern Philippines by Tuesday. Last week, Super Typhoon Parma crossed over the northern Philippines three times, dumping over twenty inches of rain in many locations. Over 300 people died in the resulting flash floods and landslides. A visit by Typhoon Lupit could create a major catastrophe in the northern Philippines as the storm dumps another 1 - 2 feet of rain on the already saturated soils.

My next post will be Sunday or Monday.

Jeff Masters

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1528. IKE
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
This is from the San Juan NWS:


SVRL RUNS OF THE ECMWF MODEL HAVE BEEN INDICATING A STRONG
TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CARIBBEAN SEA
OVER THE NEXT 48 HRS. WHILE TPC DOES NOT HAVE ANYTHING MENTIONED
IN THEIR LATEST TROPICAL WX OTLK...LATEST IR IMAGERY SHOWS A
MARKED INCREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION NORTH OF PANAMA WITH EVIDENCE
OF SOME MID LEVEL TURNING. GIVEN THE CONSISTENCY OF THE ECMWF
MODEL OVER THE LAST THREE DAYS PREDICTING A STRONG AND WELL-
DEVELOPED TROPICAL CYCLONE AND THE RECENT INCREASE IN CONVECTION
ALONG WITH FVRBL CLIMATOLOGICAL AND MJO CONDITIONS AM ANTICIPATING
SOMETHING WILL DEVELOP EVENTUALLY IN THAT AREA THIS WEEK.


Well...I didn't check San Juan...lol.

I agree, clouds are gathering in that area and there is a cyclonic turning to them.
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1527. IKE
Quoting OGal:
So guys, following Gam's question. Is there a chance for something brewing in Carib and moving across south Florida the end of Oct??


If you believe the ECMWF, there is...all the way north to the panhandle/big bend.

Has very little model support right now. None of the area weather offices are mentioning anything about the ECMWF. I checked...Miami, Key West, Orlando, Tampa, Tallahassee, Mobile, Birmingham and New Orleans.

ECMWF is showing a weaker trough the end of next week...lifting out with no strong push of high pressure behind it. It may be on to something. See if the other models pick up on it.

6Z NOGAPS shows a nice vorticity in 6 days in the southern Caribbean, but that's about 2 days slower than the ECMWF.
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This is from the San Juan NWS:

SVRL RUNS OF THE ECMWF MODEL HAVE BEEN INDICATING A STRONG
TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CARIBBEAN SEA
OVER THE NEXT 48 HRS. WHILE TPC DOES NOT HAVE ANYTHING MENTIONED
IN THEIR LATEST TROPICAL WX OTLK...LATEST IR IMAGERY SHOWS A
MARKED INCREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION NORTH OF PANAMA WITH EVIDENCE
OF SOME MID LEVEL TURNING. GIVEN THE CONSISTENCY OF THE ECMWF
MODEL OVER THE LAST THREE DAYS PREDICTING A STRONG AND WELL-
DEVELOPED TROPICAL CYCLONE AND THE RECENT INCREASE IN CONVECTION
ALONG WITH FVRBL CLIMATOLOGICAL AND MJO CONDITIONS AM ANTICIPATING
SOMETHING WILL DEVELOP EVENTUALLY IN THAT AREA THIS WEEK.
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1524. jipmg
Quoting OGal:
So guys, following Gam's question. Is there a chance for something brewing in Carib and moving across south Florida the end of Oct??


hurricane wilma
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Quoting OGal:
So guys, following Gam's question. Is there a chance for something brewing in Carib and moving across south Florida the end of Oct??

I really hope not ... no need for another Wilma... keeping my fingers crossed
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omg 56 here in Ft Laud... I have my footies... and the ac finally kicked off after 90 something yesterday
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1521. OGal
So guys, following Gam's question. Is there a chance for something brewing in Carib and moving across south Florida the end of Oct??
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1520. IKE
Quoting leftovers:
sounds like something brewing ike


Maxwell House...caffeine light.

ECMWF doesn't have much company...yet.
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1518. IKE
1030mb high over northern Arkansas supplying the cold-air....

42.8 was my low.
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Whoa.... On a totally unrelated topic, there's a spot in NW Wyoming with temps in single digits this a.m......

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1516. OGal
Good Morning All, Rick is sure a scary scenario! Hope he weakens prior to the hit on the Baja.

BTW, the temp here in Orlando this morning is 48º A real wake up for us after weeks of 90º
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Looks like that area E of Nigaragua is the potential "powder keg" for this week's ATL activity....
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With Rick coming in to the Baja coast in a couple days, mightn't we see some of the problems with surge that we saw with Ike? I mean Cat 2 winds, but a cat 3/4 surge potential. Someone mentioned earlier making a change to SSS, and I agree it should be done. But it should be like Enhanced Fujita, that is, giving more information about surge potential.
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Rick

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Current IR of the cold front.

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Record low for West Palm Beach set at 53...Previous record 57 in 1977.
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1510. IKE
8:05 am EDST TWD.....


TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 78W S OF 17N MOVING W 15-20 KT. THE WAVE
LIES WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE OVER THE WRN CARIBBEAN
OBSERVED IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY...AS WELL AS BROAD
LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW INDICATED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY.
AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH COVERING THE CARIBBEAN IS PROVIDING A DIFFLUENT
ZONE ALOFT SUPPORTING A LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION OVER THE WRN
CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-11N
BETWEEN 73W-80W...FROM 11N-17N BETWEEN 78W-83W...AND FROM
17N-20N BETWEEN 73W-78W. THIS CONVECTION IS PROBABLY MOST
INFLUENCED BY THE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT THAN SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR
THE WAVE.



THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AS OF 0900 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL CUBA NEAR
22N79W ALONG 20N84W 19N86W TO HONDURAS NEAR 16N88W. ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 75 NM OF THE FRONT. N TO NE
SURFACE WINDS OF 20-25 KT ARE NW OF THE FRONT. A TROPICAL WAVE
IS ALONG 78W. SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR THE WAVE ALONG WITH UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AROUND AN UPPER TROUGH COVERING THE BASIN
CENTERED NEAR 11N75W ARE SUPPORTING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 3N-11N BETWEEN 73W-80W...FROM 11N-17N
BETWEEN 78W-83W...AND FROM 17N-20N BETWEEN 73W-78W. THE ACTIVITY
IS PROBABLY ENHANCED MORE BY THE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE THAN
SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR THE WAVE. THE ERN CARIBBEAN REMAINS
FAIRLY CALM E OF 73W WITH FRESH TO STRONG TRADEWINDS BETWEEN
68W-75W. EXPECT THE COLD FRONT IN THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN TO
CONTINUE PUSHING SE AND STALL AS IT BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 78W.


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1509. WxLogic
Good morning...

Well... round 2 for ECMWF with a bit stronger AZ High in the W ATL and with a left shift. We we'll see if this trend by this model persist for a third time by 3PM ET today.
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Quoting leftovers:
its still summer down there near the yucatan south coast of cuba
Temps still in the 90's down here.
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Morning all.

Ahhhh.....

Current Conditions
Nassau, BS (Airport)
Updated: 17 min 41 sec ago
79 °F / 26 °C
Mostly Cloudy


There's a nice little northerly breeze as well - feels good out there for a change...

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there is some nice 850 vort in the sw carib
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1503. unf97
Good Morning WU community!

I just measured a temperature at my home in North Jax of 45.4 degrees at the 7 a.m. hour. A brisk and chilly morning with NW winds blowing at 10-20 mph, giving a wind chill value in the mid-upper 30s.

Expecting max temps in the low to mid 60s today. Beautiful autumn weather. Could see upper 30s interior/normally colder spots of NE FL and SE GA on Monday morning.

Meanwhile, Hurricane Rick is an absolute monster in the Eastern Pacific. Wow! 180 mph. On the satellite imagery, it is one of the most impressive cyclones I have seen. Thank God for now it is out to sea and hopefully, it will lose some of its intensity before impacting Baja Peninsula and other areas of Mexico later this week.

Happy Sunday everyone!

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South of you on the Gulf--46 and calm on PCB...
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1501. IKE
Quoting Cyberdium:
Is that what I think it is?


Yup....a major-cane heading into the GOM a week after wind-chills in the 30's this morning.
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I was looking at the models how accurate is the GFDL model because this is interesting how the GFDL shows Rick going into the Gulf could we see Rick going over Mexico into the Gulf and Re Intensifying? and becoming a threat for US landfall?
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Quoting Cotillion:
More news of politics meddling with weather...

"A Conservative government would consider privatising the Met Office, shadow defence secretary Liam Fox has suggested to the BBC.

The Tories are committed to reducing Ministry of Defence costs by a quarter and this could include selling assets such as the Met Office.

Mr Fox told BBC One's Andrew Marr Show there was a "strong case" for looking at offloading MoD assets.

He disputed suggestions that 22,000 MoD jobs could go as costs are cut.

Mr Fox said the Conservatives' policy had to be "about giving things to the front line", adding: "We can't afford to have 60% of the whole civil service in the MoD."

Asked how a Tory government would make savings, he said: "It's also big structures like the fact the MoD owns the Met Office, with all the costs, salaries, pensions."

Questioned about privatising the Met Office, Mr Fox said: "There's a very strong case to look at the assets of the MoD and say do these deliver anything for the front line?"

The Met Office was established in 1854 as a small department within the Board of Trade and later became part of the MoD."

Link


Problem being that their right. The met office isn't exactly run like a government department.

On Rick - Isn't 155kt more than 180mph?

[ooc]Don't be scared about an NHS - its not communism[/ooc]
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Re:economic systems I'll reply to your posts on this entry when Dr. Masters writes another one



Re: Climate change

Atmo, okay let's stop beating around the bush.
CO2 is a greenhouse gas, it makes things hotter. There is a lot of territory still available to run in terms of CO2 rise. Unless you can show me some miraculous effect that buffers temperature then you're wrong.

780,000 yrs of ice bubbles says they've done nothing but shadow each other like white on milk



cross-causation

water vapor temperature CO2 <-- burning
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Is that what I think it is?
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1496. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
National Hurricane Center
Tropical Cyclone Warning #12
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE RICK (EP202009)
9:00 AM UTC October 18 2009
=======================================

Subject: "Rick" maintaining its strength at 155 knots

Interest Alert
-----------------
Baja California and the southwest coast of Mexico should monitor the progress of "Rick"

At 6:00 AM UTC, Hurricane Rick (906 hPa) located at 15.3N 107.2W or 485 NM south-southeast of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico has sustained winds of 155 knots with gusts of 190 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west-northwest at 12 knots

Hurricane Force Winds
======================
55 NM from the center

Gale/Storm Force Winds
================
155 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 15.9N 109.0W - 150 knots (SSHS-5 Cyclone)
24 HRS: 17.0N 110.7W - 140 knots (SSHS-5 Cyclone)
48 HRS: 19.1N 112.0W - 115 knots (SSHS-4 Cyclone)
72 HRS: 21.5N 111.0W - 95 knots (SSHS-2 Cyclone)
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1495. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Joint Typhoon Warning Center

Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert (0930z 18OCT)
==========================================

An area of convection (93W) located at 15.7N 110.4E or 170 NM east-southeast of Hue, Vietnam. Animated multispectral and infrared satellite imagery shows that the low level circulation center has persisted over the past 24 hours, with a well organized center and winds between 17-22 knots based on a 0239z ASCAT Pass. The low level circulation center is partially exposed with the deep convection beginning to move towards the center as it approaches the convective diurnal maximum. An 0611z AMSR-E Microwave Pass shows a band of deeper convection has started to build along the western side of the low level circulation center and is wrapping into the southern portion of the system. Upper level analysis indicates that a mid to upper level subtropical ridge is building over northern Vietnam and is creating moderate vertical wind shear over the circulation center. As the low level circulation center tracks west-northwestward the vertical wind shear is expected to decrease, which will likely lead to the deeper convection building over the center and further development.

Maximum sustained winds near the center is 17-22 knots with a minimum sea level pressure of 1004 MB.
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Lo and behold:

INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT RICK IS MAINTAINING AN EXTREMELY
WELL-DEFINED 15 N MI DIAMETER EYE EMBEDDED WITHIN VERY COLD CLOUD
TOPS. THE UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC OUTFLOW IS QUITE EXTENSIVE AS WELL.
BOTH OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE CLOSE TO 7.5
WHICH CONTINUE TO SUPPORT AN INTENSITY OF ABOUT 155 KT...I.E.
CATEGORY FIVE STRENGTH. MICROWAVE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT A
CONCENTRIC EYEWALL MAY BE TRYING TO FORM WHICH COULD PRESAGE AN
EYEWALL REPLACEMENT...AND POSSIBLY SOME WEAKENING. IN ANY EVENT...
RICK HAS PROBABLY REACHED ITS MAXIMUM INTENSITY AS IT WILL BE
MOVING INTO AN ENVIRONMENT THAT WILL GRADUALLY BECOME LESS
CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING.

(At 180mph/906mb - No longer saying it'll hit 160kts, but we'll see.)
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Quoting Ighuc:
I really really hope Rick follows TWC's prediction and reaches Baja as a Cat 1 because this is absolutely scary right now.

http://www.weather.com/maps/news/epacstorm20/epac20projectedpath_large.html?from=news_maps

This is not annular, correct?

Also, what are the chances that a pinhole eye will form? I am a little rusty in my terminology, but this is a good indication of future weakening due to EWRC right?

Seeing that 180 MPH is a little disturbing...


Pinhole eyes are more of an indication of very high intensity, like Wilma had a pinhole of roughly 3 miles. Although, it does have some sort of link to EWRC in the fact that they cannot be sustained for all that long before the eye collapses because of the strength of the eyewall.

A better indication for an impending EWRC are concentric eyewalls.

As for the 200mph predictions... the record for sustained winds is still about 190mph, held by a fair few storms throughout each basin. Allen and Camille being the representatives for the Atlantic. It's entirely possible that this has since been beaten but it's not officially recorded.

No question Rick is exceptionally impressive, though, and I hope he puts the skids on pretty soon for the sake of those in its path. 180mph on an advisory is incredibly rare as well, they usually cap it at 175, seemingly.

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More news of politics meddling with weather...

"A Conservative government would consider privatising the Met Office, shadow defence secretary Liam Fox has suggested to the BBC.

The Tories are committed to reducing Ministry of Defence costs by a quarter and this could include selling assets such as the Met Office.

Mr Fox told BBC One's Andrew Marr Show there was a "strong case" for looking at offloading MoD assets.

He disputed suggestions that 22,000 MoD jobs could go as costs are cut.

Mr Fox said the Conservatives' policy had to be "about giving things to the front line", adding: "We can't afford to have 60% of the whole civil service in the MoD."

Asked how a Tory government would make savings, he said: "It's also big structures like the fact the MoD owns the Met Office, with all the costs, salaries, pensions."

Questioned about privatising the Met Office, Mr Fox said: "There's a very strong case to look at the assets of the MoD and say do these deliver anything for the front line?"

The Met Office was established in 1854 as a small department within the Board of Trade and later became part of the MoD."

Link
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Quoting Ighuc:
I really really hope Rick follows TWC's prediction and reaches Baja as a Cat 1 because this is absolutely scary right now.

http://www.weather.com/maps/news/epacstorm20/epac20projectedpath_large.html?from=news_maps

This is not annular, correct?

Also, what are the chances that a pinhole eye will form? I am a little rusty in my terminology, but this is a good indication of future weakening due to EWRC right?

Seeing that 180 MPH is a little disturbing...


It doesn't look annular. Theirs something the more experienced meteo's here can do to tell. Pinhole eye makes it annular. and no.
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1490. Ighuc
I really really hope Rick follows TWC's prediction and reaches Baja as a Cat 1 because this is absolutely scary right now.

http://www.weather.com/maps/news/epacstorm20/epac20projectedpath_large.html?from=news_maps

This is not annular, correct?

Also, what are the chances that a pinhole eye will form? I am a little rusty in my terminology, but this is a good indication of future weakening due to EWRC right?

Seeing that 180 MPH is a little disturbing...
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Quoting jasoniscoolman10:
winds 180 mph.





UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 18 OCT 2009 Time : 071500 UTC
Lat : 15:12:20 N Lon : 106:56:02 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
7.6 / 905.5mb/158.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
7.4 7.4 7.4

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +2.7mb

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 22 km

Center Temp : +17.2C Cloud Region Temp : -75.8C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

****************************************************
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Quoting btwntx08:

all i have to say is wow!!!


I know... its sorta like the Meteorological version of well you know what.

Rick is well powerful... I wouldn't be suprised if we hit 200mph by the end of tommorow.
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1487. IKE
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Seismic Monitor

AOI

AOI

Humor in Comments
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1485. ackee
Quoting IKE:


4:30 am CDST.

Hard to ignore the ECMWF.
agree but have see other model suport to belive this
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1484. IKE
Quoting ackee:
when does the next GFS runs comes out


4:30 am CDST.

Hard to ignore the ECMWF.
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Quoting weatherbro:
actually the 1935 hurricane originally was thought to only peak at 165MPH...Then 185. The latest estimates put it at 200MPH(gusts to 235MPH). Camile and Allen only made it to 190MPH. A typhoon(forgot the name off hand) in Japan's Harbor reached 215MPH years ago(with much higher gusts!

Let's see if this thing makes it to 200MPH! Man! I wonder how powerful hurricanes were during the medieval warming period! I bet they reached upwards to 240MPH!


Temperatures surpassed the Medieval warm period in the 20th century.
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1482. ackee
when does the next GFS runs comes out
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1481. ackee
Quoting SevereHurricane:
You have got to be kidding me! 00Z ECMWF...

Photobucket
just saw it as well but seem like only model on broad thow
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You have got to be kidding me! 00Z ECMWF...

Photobucket
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Quoting Bordonaro:


Kinda upset that the NHC is not going to put out another update till 4AM CDT :0((!!


me too
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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