Second warmest September on record for the globe

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:49 PM GMT on October 16, 2009

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The globe recorded its second warmest September since record keeping began in 1880, according to NOAA's National Climatic Data Center. The combined global land and ocean temperature anomaly was 0.62°C (1.12°F), falling only 0.04°C (0.07°F) short of tying the record set in 2005. NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies also rated September 2009 as the 2nd warmest September on record, falling 0.02°C short of the record set in 2005. It was the 33rd consecutive September with a global temperature above the 20th century average. NOAA rated the year-to-date period, January - September 2009, as the sixth warmest such period on record. The September satellite-measured temperatures for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were the 2nd warmest on record, behind 1998. Global ocean Sea Surface Temperature (SST) anomalies, however, cooled a bit, and were the 5th warmest on record. Global SSTs were the warmest on record during the Northern Hemisphere summer, June - August.


Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for September 2009. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center.

A warm September for the U.S., and record heat in the West
For the contiguous U.S., the average September temperature was 1.0°F above average, making it the 32nd warmest September in the 115-year record, according to the National Climatic Data Center. The West had is warmest September on record, with Nevada and California recording their warmest September, and six other western states observing a top-ten warmest September--Montana (3rd warmest), North Dakota (3rd), Idaho (4th), Utah (5th), Minnesota (6th), and Oregon (8th). However, a combination a slow-moving storm system during the beginning of the month and two surface cold fronts during the last week resulted in much below normal temperature averages in Kansas (10th coolest) and Oklahoma (11th coolest). The year-to-date (January - September) period was the 29th warmest such period for the contiguous U.S.

U.S. precipitation near average
U.S. precipitation in September was exactly average. Statewide-averaged rainfall was among the ten wettest for four southern states (Arkansas, 2nd wettest; Tennessee (5th), Mississippi (6th), and Alabama (6th)). Maine and Wisconsin each experienced their fourth driest September and both New Hampshire and Michigan had their seventh driest such periods.

U.S. drought
At the end of September, 15% of the contiguous United States was in moderate-to-exceptional drought. This is a drop from the 19% figure observed at the beginning of the year. Exceptional drought (the worst category of drought) was seen in South to Central Texas, though the area covered by exceptional drought shrank by 50% over the past month, thanks to much-needed rains over the region.

U.S. fire activity
During September, 5,535 fires burned approximately 378,523 acres, each of which was below the 2000 - 2009 average for the month. The acreage lost to wildfire was roughly half of the 2000 - 2009 average. For the year to date (January.September), 70,217 fires was slightly above the 10-year average, while acreage burned was slightly less than average.

Weak El Niño conditions continue
El Niño conditions continue over the tropical Eastern Pacific. Ocean temperatures in the area 5°N - 5°S, 120°W - 170°W, also called the "Niña 3.4 region", were 0.3°C above the threshold for a weak El Niño, according to the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center is maintaining an El Niño Advisory. Current conditions and model forecasts favor the continued development of a weak-to-moderate strength El Niño event into the Northern Hemisphere Fall 2009, with the likelihood of at least a moderate strength El Niño (3-month Niño-3.4 SST index of +1.0°C or greater) during the Northern Hemisphere Winter 2009-10.

September sea ice extent in the Arctic 3rd lowest on record
September 2009 Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent was the 3rd lowest since satellite measurements began in 1979, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC). Only 2007 and 2008 saw lower Arctic sea ice extent. Both the Northwest Passage and Northeast Passage melted free, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center. This marks the second consecutive year--and the second time in recorded history--both of these Arctic shipping routes have melted free. The past five years have had the five lowest Arctic ice extents on record. In their 2009 report on this year's Arctic sea ice minimum, NSIDC Director and Senior Scientist Mark Serreze said, "It's nice to see a little recovery over the past couple years, but there's no reason to think that we're headed back to conditions seen back in the 1970s. We still expect to see ice-free summers sometime in the next few decades". Only 19% of the ice cover this summer in the Arctic was over 2 years old, the least in the satellite record, and far below the 1981 - 2000 average of 52%. NSIDC Scientist Walt Meier said, "We've preserved a fair amount of first-year ice and second-year ice after this summer compared to the past couple of years. If this ice remains in the Arctic through the winter, it will thicken, which gives some hope of stabilizing the ice cover over the next few years. However, the ice is still much younger and thinner than it was in the 1980s, leaving it vulnerable to melt during the summer". Earlier this summer, NASA researcher Ron Kwok and colleagues from the University of Washington in Seattle published satellite data showing that Arctic ice thickness declined by 0.68 meters (2.2 feet) between 2004 and 2008. The overall mean winter thickness was 3.64 meters in 1980, and 1.89 meters during the winter of 2007 - 2008, a massive decrease of 48%.

References
Kwok, R., and D. A. Rothrock. 2009. Decline in Arctic sea ice thickness from submarine and ICESat records: 1958.2008, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L15501, doi:10.1029/2009GL039035.


Figure 2. Category 1 Typhoon Lupit in the Philippine Sea at 04:45 UTC October 16, 2009. Image credit: NASA MODIS Rapid Response System.

Tropical update
In the Atlantic, there are no threat areas to discuss, and none of the computer models is calling for tropical storm formation over the next week.

There are two potential serious threats in the Pacific. Tropical Storm Rick off the Pacific coast of Mexico is expected to recurve to the north and threaten Baja late next week. While Rick is expected to become a major hurricane early next week, the storm should weaken significantly before any potential landfall in Mexico, due to high wind shear and cooler ocean temperatures the storm will find as it approaches Baja.

More seriously, Typhoon Lupit in the Western Pacific is expected to intensify into a Category 4 typhoon and threaten the northern Philippines by Tuesday. Last week, Super Typhoon Parma crossed over the northern Philippines three times, dumping over twenty inches of rain in many locations. Over 300 people died in the resulting flash floods and landslides. A visit by Typhoon Lupit could create a major catastrophe in the northern Philippines as the storm dumps another 1 - 2 feet of rain on the already saturated soils.

My next post will be Sunday or Monday.

Jeff Masters

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1678. ackee
any one think the system in SW carrb will track similar to Gordon if its develop the ECMWF track seem very werid thow guess only time will tell
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1676. Drakoen
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30825
1675. Patrap
RAAMB,Hurricane Rick
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129841
Quoting CybrTeddy:
We had to wait from September 4th, 2007 to October 17th, 2009 to again see a Category 5 Hurricane and it's not even in our basin. Little bit of trivia for y'all.
Hey, we can go another 2 years w/out the ATL basin cat 5, no problem.... LOL

Have to admit Rick is looking remarkably impressive this a.m. I'm only really glad 92L didn't decide to do this in the WCar....
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1673. Patrap
Quoting 954FtLCane:

Thanks Pat for this page... I bookmarked it.... and go Saints!!!!!!


Its a good one to save,my fav actually.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129841
1672. Patrap
Who Dats Vs Eli and the Giants,NOON here.

Go Boyz ..
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129841
1671. Patrap
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129841
1670. jipmg
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Rick's down to 175 mph, not 170.


this site says 170
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Quoting Patrap:
All Floater Imagery,NOAA

Thanks Pat for this page... I bookmarked it.... and go Saints!!!!!!
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1668. Patrap
RICK,Multiplatform Satellite Surface Wind Analysis
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129841
1667. ackee
Quoting Drakoen:
Interesting 00z ECMWF continuing to be consistent in developing a strong tropical cyclone. The front will begin to interact with the tropical wave and potentially kick things off. With the MJO forecasted, low vertical wind shear, and the most reliable model's consistency I am in anticipation of a tropical storm developing mid to late next week.
agree
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1666. Drakoen
Broad low level circulation:

Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30825
1665. Patrap
All Floater Imagery,NOAA
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129841
Quoting 954FtLCane:
\
Falling apart I see

Probably just an EWRC
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1663. Patrap
History is what it iz sport.
Pass the Juice,Please.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129841
1662. Patrap
Hurricane Rick in the Viz.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129841
Rick's down to 175 mph, not 170.
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Quoting Patrap:
If I had a nickel for every time I heard "Wilma" in association with anything,..well..I'd be up to me Knee's in Nickels.



If I had a nickel for every time I heard "KATRINA" in association with anything,..well..I'd be up to me Knee's in Nickels.

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1659. Patrap
Another nickel in da Piggy,..LOL
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129841
Quoting Patrap:
If I had a nickel for every time I heard "Wilma" in association with anything,..well..I'd be up to me Knee's in Nickels.



WILMA
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1657. Patrap
If I had a nickel for every time I heard "Wilma" in association with anything,..well..I'd be up to me Knee's in Nickels.


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129841
Quoting jipmg:
Rick is down to 170mph winds..
\
Falling apart I see
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Quoting P451:


Good Morning. I understand the feeling that the system will be pushed NNE then NNW then NNE. I just don't see the sharp course changes the EMCWF shows. NNE then W then N to NNE again. That's where it loses me.

Especially given the speed it shows the system moving. The course changes are too sharp and too "perfect" if you know what I mean (missing land, threading the Yucatan channel, etc)

I can recall Mitch making sharp course changes but that system was barely moving at any given time.

This one is shown with a decent forward motion throughout the model run so I don't see these sharp turns in course panning out unless we're talking about a much longer time frame (which the model is not).

*shrugs*




WILMA
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1654. Patrap
Pass the syrup please,TYVM
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129841
1653. jipmg
Rick is down to 170mph winds..
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Quoting lawntonlookers:
Does anyone know if the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program F18 (DMSP F18) satellite that is scheduled to be launched today at 9:12 AM PDT would ever provide weather data to the NHC? It sounds like a fairly sophisticated weather satellite.

DMSP F18



lol, we have been using DMSP satellites for a while...the SSMI sensor is on board the DMSP satellites, where we get surface wind speeds and TPW loops from. You said F18 would be launch, well here is the F17 of Rick

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Does anyone know if the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program F18 (DMSP F18) satellite that is scheduled to be launched today at 9:12 AM PDT would ever provide weather data to the NHC? It sounds like a fairly sophisticated weather satellite.

DMSP F18
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Hurricane Rick maintains Category 5 strength off Mexico

* From: AFP
* Sun Oct 18 22:30:00 EST

HURRICANE Rick maintained its furious strength early today after becoming what forecasters described as the second-strongest storm on record to hit the eastern north Pacific Ocean.

Rick reached top Category Five status on Saturday as it barrelled up Mexico's Pacific coast with winds roiling at 285 kilometres per hour, US forecasters said.

The storm roared to the top of the Saffir-Simpson scale after warm waters prompted Rick's precipitous rise from a Category One to a Category Five system in less than 36 hours.

"With 180 mph winds, Rick becomes the second-strongest eastern north Pacific hurricane on record after Linda of 1997,'' the US National Hurricane Centre (NHC) said.

The "extremely dangerous'' storm, the Miami-based monitoring centre said, was expected to remain offshore of Mexico's southern coast.

"Some fluctuations in intensity are likely during the next 24 hours,'' cautioned the NHC.

Start of sidebar. Skip to end of sidebar.

End of sidebar. Return to start of sidebar.

"But Rick is expected to remain an extremely dangerous hurricane for the next day or two.''

The storm was expected to pass near Mexico's southern Baja California peninsula on Wednesday and make landfall in northwestern Mexico on Thursday.
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1649. Drakoen
Quoting hurricane23:
The prevailing synoptic pattern across the united states and on the ECM ensembles to me imply a threat to florida cuba and bahamas.

Nice cool down this morning! Enjoy it while its around as hot humid return mid week.


Agree with such strong cold fronts it is unlikely if something were to develop that it would threaten the northern GOM. The ECMWF does forecast a negative NAO but the negative NAOs this year has really not done much justice in pushing the ridge up to the coast.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30825
1648. beell
06Z GFS cuts off an upper low from an upper trough over the western Caribbean next Friday.
This trough shown in the model begins to deepen over the area on Wednesday.

If you paste the circulation shown by the ECMWF (near 20N 80W) on Saturday/00Z the upper level winds would not seem to favor major intensification. Would not rule out something forming-but it may not be purely tropical.
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hey, look:
from NHC:
Last update Sun, 18 Oct 2009 14:14:14 UTC
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I saw that 23. Back to mid-80s by Tues or Wed. in ECentFl.
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The prevailing synoptic pattern across the united states and on the ECM ensembles to me imply a threat to florida cuba and bahamas.

Nice cool down this morning! Enjoy it while its around as hot humid return mid week.
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1644. Drakoen
Quoting atmoaggie:

We were forecast a low of 40 last night/this morning...go to 43. Not a surprise...everything covered in dew, like usual.

Very rare that we have a low not held up by dewpoints.


Yea. The problem for us today is the winds which helping with the mixing of the air prevent temperatures from getting too much colder but I bet the wind chill will make it feel like the the mid to upper 40s.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30825
456's blog today exhibits extremely enlightening extrapolative explanations of evironmental elements.

dr. masters must be writing a paper.
he said he'd post today tho.
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1642. jipmg
Quoting atmoaggie:

We were forecast a low of 40 last night/this morning...go to 43. Not a surprise...everything covered in dew, like usual.

Very rare that we have a low not held up by dewpoints.


the humidity here in miami dropped like a rock when the front came through, it went from mid-upper 70s to right now in the 40s.. it feels so good in comparison to the past couple of days.
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Quoting Drakoen:


Our overnight low in Western Lake Worth was 53 we were only suppose to dip down into the upper 50s. I think we could get in the lower 50s or upper 40s tonight since the second night is usually colder.

We were forecast a low of 40 last night/this morning...go to 43. Not a surprise...everything covered in dew, like usual.

Very rare that we have a low not held up by dewpoints.
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1640. jipmg
Quoting Drakoen:


Our overnight low in Western Lake Worth was 53 we were only suppose to dip down into the upper 50s. I think we could get in the lower 50s or upper 40s tonight since the second night is usually colder.


yea, its exciting, I remember back in January I believe it was, that they were forecasting upper 30s for the entire dade county area.. and it was in the low 40s by midnight, I was expecting mid 30s. It dropped to 37 along the beach, frigid day it was, mid 50s for highs too.
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http://www.canada.com/nationalpost/financialpost/story.html?id=d0235a70-33f1-45b3-803b-829b1b3542ef
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Seismic Monitor

AOI

AOI

Humor in Comments
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26516
1637. Drakoen
Quoting jipmg:
I am shocked, the temperature dropped in miami from 63 to 61, and the wind is blowing around 15mph from the NNW, with overcast skies.. I would not be suprised if we don't hit 70 today.. if that happens, a MUCH colder night is ahead of us.


Our overnight low in Western Lake Worth was 53 we were only suppose to dip down into the upper 50s. I think we could get in the lower 50s or upper 40s tonight since the second night is usually colder.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30825
1636. Drakoen
Interesting 00z ECMWF continuing to be consistent in developing a strong tropical cyclone. The front will begin to interact with the tropical wave and potentially kick things off. With the MJO forecasted, low vertical wind shear, and the most reliable model's consistency I am in anticipation of a tropical storm developing mid to late next week.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30825
1635. jipmg
I am shocked, the temperature dropped in miami from 63 to 61, and the wind is blowing around 15mph from the NNW, with overcast skies.. I would not be suprised if we don't hit 70 today.. if that happens, a MUCH colder night is ahead of us.
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Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
000
NOUS42 KNHC 181430
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1030 AM EDT SUN 18 OCTOBER 2009
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 19/1100Z TO 20/1100Z 0CTOBER 2009
TCPOD NUMBER.....09-143

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK......NEGATIVE.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. HURRICANE RICK
FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 70
A. 19/1800Z
B. AFXXX 0120E RICK
C. 19/1200Z
D. 18.1N 111.4W
E. 19/1700Z TO 19/2200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY:
ANOTHER FIX ON HURRICANE RICK ON 20/1800Z NEAR
20.7N 111.2W
DMG




can't wait
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Tropical update
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000
NOUS42 KNHC 181430
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1030 AM EDT SUN 18 OCTOBER 2009
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 19/1100Z TO 20/1100Z 0CTOBER 2009
TCPOD NUMBER.....09-143

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK......NEGATIVE.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. HURRICANE RICK
FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 70
A. 19/1800Z
B. AFXXX 0120E RICK
C. 19/1200Z
D. 18.1N 111.4W
E. 19/1700Z TO 19/2200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY:
ANOTHER FIX ON HURRICANE RICK ON 20/1800Z NEAR
20.7N 111.2W
DMG


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We had to wait from September 4th, 2007 to October 17th, 2009 to again see a Category 5 Hurricane and it's not even in our basin. Little bit of trivia for y'all.
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Looks like a challenging final chapter to the Atlantic season land fall threat wise for the US. Expect increasing model support as development festers over the next few days.
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Quoting Weather456:


the dry is being created between a ridge and trough over the Atlantic. This confluent flow is dry and subsident, thus hindering development of vertical clouds that bring rain and aid in our water reservoirs.
Ok.
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Quoting P451:


No biggie.
Ok. Friends ?
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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