Second warmest September on record for the globe

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:49 PM GMT on October 16, 2009

Share this Blog
1
+

The globe recorded its second warmest September since record keeping began in 1880, according to NOAA's National Climatic Data Center. The combined global land and ocean temperature anomaly was 0.62°C (1.12°F), falling only 0.04°C (0.07°F) short of tying the record set in 2005. NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies also rated September 2009 as the 2nd warmest September on record, falling 0.02°C short of the record set in 2005. It was the 33rd consecutive September with a global temperature above the 20th century average. NOAA rated the year-to-date period, January - September 2009, as the sixth warmest such period on record. The September satellite-measured temperatures for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were the 2nd warmest on record, behind 1998. Global ocean Sea Surface Temperature (SST) anomalies, however, cooled a bit, and were the 5th warmest on record. Global SSTs were the warmest on record during the Northern Hemisphere summer, June - August.


Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for September 2009. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center.

A warm September for the U.S., and record heat in the West
For the contiguous U.S., the average September temperature was 1.0°F above average, making it the 32nd warmest September in the 115-year record, according to the National Climatic Data Center. The West had is warmest September on record, with Nevada and California recording their warmest September, and six other western states observing a top-ten warmest September--Montana (3rd warmest), North Dakota (3rd), Idaho (4th), Utah (5th), Minnesota (6th), and Oregon (8th). However, a combination a slow-moving storm system during the beginning of the month and two surface cold fronts during the last week resulted in much below normal temperature averages in Kansas (10th coolest) and Oklahoma (11th coolest). The year-to-date (January - September) period was the 29th warmest such period for the contiguous U.S.

U.S. precipitation near average
U.S. precipitation in September was exactly average. Statewide-averaged rainfall was among the ten wettest for four southern states (Arkansas, 2nd wettest; Tennessee (5th), Mississippi (6th), and Alabama (6th)). Maine and Wisconsin each experienced their fourth driest September and both New Hampshire and Michigan had their seventh driest such periods.

U.S. drought
At the end of September, 15% of the contiguous United States was in moderate-to-exceptional drought. This is a drop from the 19% figure observed at the beginning of the year. Exceptional drought (the worst category of drought) was seen in South to Central Texas, though the area covered by exceptional drought shrank by 50% over the past month, thanks to much-needed rains over the region.

U.S. fire activity
During September, 5,535 fires burned approximately 378,523 acres, each of which was below the 2000 - 2009 average for the month. The acreage lost to wildfire was roughly half of the 2000 - 2009 average. For the year to date (January.September), 70,217 fires was slightly above the 10-year average, while acreage burned was slightly less than average.

Weak El Niño conditions continue
El Niño conditions continue over the tropical Eastern Pacific. Ocean temperatures in the area 5°N - 5°S, 120°W - 170°W, also called the "Niña 3.4 region", were 0.3°C above the threshold for a weak El Niño, according to the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center is maintaining an El Niño Advisory. Current conditions and model forecasts favor the continued development of a weak-to-moderate strength El Niño event into the Northern Hemisphere Fall 2009, with the likelihood of at least a moderate strength El Niño (3-month Niño-3.4 SST index of +1.0°C or greater) during the Northern Hemisphere Winter 2009-10.

September sea ice extent in the Arctic 3rd lowest on record
September 2009 Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent was the 3rd lowest since satellite measurements began in 1979, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC). Only 2007 and 2008 saw lower Arctic sea ice extent. Both the Northwest Passage and Northeast Passage melted free, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center. This marks the second consecutive year--and the second time in recorded history--both of these Arctic shipping routes have melted free. The past five years have had the five lowest Arctic ice extents on record. In their 2009 report on this year's Arctic sea ice minimum, NSIDC Director and Senior Scientist Mark Serreze said, "It's nice to see a little recovery over the past couple years, but there's no reason to think that we're headed back to conditions seen back in the 1970s. We still expect to see ice-free summers sometime in the next few decades". Only 19% of the ice cover this summer in the Arctic was over 2 years old, the least in the satellite record, and far below the 1981 - 2000 average of 52%. NSIDC Scientist Walt Meier said, "We've preserved a fair amount of first-year ice and second-year ice after this summer compared to the past couple of years. If this ice remains in the Arctic through the winter, it will thicken, which gives some hope of stabilizing the ice cover over the next few years. However, the ice is still much younger and thinner than it was in the 1980s, leaving it vulnerable to melt during the summer". Earlier this summer, NASA researcher Ron Kwok and colleagues from the University of Washington in Seattle published satellite data showing that Arctic ice thickness declined by 0.68 meters (2.2 feet) between 2004 and 2008. The overall mean winter thickness was 3.64 meters in 1980, and 1.89 meters during the winter of 2007 - 2008, a massive decrease of 48%.

References
Kwok, R., and D. A. Rothrock. 2009. Decline in Arctic sea ice thickness from submarine and ICESat records: 1958.2008, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L15501, doi:10.1029/2009GL039035.


Figure 2. Category 1 Typhoon Lupit in the Philippine Sea at 04:45 UTC October 16, 2009. Image credit: NASA MODIS Rapid Response System.

Tropical update
In the Atlantic, there are no threat areas to discuss, and none of the computer models is calling for tropical storm formation over the next week.

There are two potential serious threats in the Pacific. Tropical Storm Rick off the Pacific coast of Mexico is expected to recurve to the north and threaten Baja late next week. While Rick is expected to become a major hurricane early next week, the storm should weaken significantly before any potential landfall in Mexico, due to high wind shear and cooler ocean temperatures the storm will find as it approaches Baja.

More seriously, Typhoon Lupit in the Western Pacific is expected to intensify into a Category 4 typhoon and threaten the northern Philippines by Tuesday. Last week, Super Typhoon Parma crossed over the northern Philippines three times, dumping over twenty inches of rain in many locations. Over 300 people died in the resulting flash floods and landslides. A visit by Typhoon Lupit could create a major catastrophe in the northern Philippines as the storm dumps another 1 - 2 feet of rain on the already saturated soils.

My next post will be Sunday or Monday.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 928 - 878

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35Blog Index

Quoting hurricane23:
Guess i need to pull out my shutters lol...

don't lol to loud 23
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting stormpetrol:

Thanks I understand what you mean, if I remember correctly I think Paloma organized from a similar scenario.
Kman and Drakoen seem to be agreeing on a good possibility of something developing which kinda puts me on pins and needles as I respect both of them for their knowledge.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8392
Quoting superpete:
Post 909:Kmanislander. Thanks for the synopsis.Unfortunately for us here in Cayman,doesnt leave a whole lot of time for preparations if the worst case scenario plays out.Hopefully any major development occurs after a forming storm is past out long/lat.


Whenever I see something spinning up down there and the local advisory gives a time frame for it to get here I cut that by 40%. Systems down in that area are notorious for coming up in a close to straight line and faster than expected.

Last year Paloma caught a lot of people here off guard and they were pulling boats in torrential rain and strong winds. I left my office early the previous afternoon and pulled my boat while the sun was out.

Never trust an organising system down there to be predictable this time of year either for speed or track. For now it's just a waiting game to see if anything happens of consequence.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:



Seismic Monitor

AOI

AOI

Humor in Comments
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
ECWMF has a major hurricane that affects the northern Caribbean and then South Florida.


October Climatology:

Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30562
Quoting stormpetrol:

Thanks I understand what you mean, if I remember correctly I think Paloma organized from a similar scenario.
I think you are right. Couple people at work trying to tell me yesterday that if a cold front comes into the Caribbean nothing can form but I guess they weren't around for Paloma.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8392
Quoting PcolaDan:


Just so you know, my grandson noticed that when he was three (he's now 7) and asked why he was called square pants.

Excellent! My 3 and 5-year-olds well know the difference, though they didn't start pointing out the deficiencies of Mr Bob's pants shape before I opened my big mouth.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting kmanislander:


Agreed on all the above !


Strong MJO phase, decreasing upper level winds, and high TCHP favors rapid cyclogenesis should an area of ow pressure form.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30562
908. Very scary scenario if that computer model is correct. Question, how reliable has that particular model been this ATL Hurricane season?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting kmanislander:


It certainly bears watching, especially with that high so close by. Usually this time of year that convection would have to sit for 24 to 36 hours before developing into anything. There is vorticity at the 5000 foot level but it may well be that it serves only to be a catalyst to assist the tail of the front to organise.

Thanks I understand what you mean, if I remember correctly I think Paloma organized from a similar scenario.
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 7930
Quoting Drakoen:
It appears that the ECMWF forecast for an area of low pressure to form in the Southern Caribbean early next week and begin rapid cyclogenesis throughout the week. Things certainly will be interesting.


Agreed on all the above !
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Post 909:Kmanislander. Thanks for the synopsis.Unfortunately for us here in Cayman,doesnt leave a whole lot of time for preparations if the worst case scenario plays out.Hopefully any major development occurs after a forming storm is past out long/lat.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Most recent snapshot of Hurricane Rick..Very, very impressive looking at the moment!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
It appears that the ECMWF forecast for an area of low pressure to form in the Southern Caribbean early next week and begin rapid cyclogenesis throughout the week. Things certainly will be interesting.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30562
Quoting stormpetrol:

HI Kman, any thoughts on that flare up N of Panama & Costa Rica?


It certainly bears watching, especially with that high so close by. Usually this time of year that convection would have to sit for 24 to 36 hours before developing into anything. There is vorticity at the 5000 foot level but it may well be that it serves only to be a catalyst to assist the tail of the front to organise.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
913. xcool
Who Let the ECMWF out


oh nooo
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
guess someone really dropped the ball on this noreaster... what noreaster??

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
911. ackee
the shower flair up in the SW carrb now will that be our next tropical system
Member Since: July 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1373
Quoting icepilot:


Atmo I usually like what you have to say - But your statements above are suspect. (I can't even find the original thread subject and don't care what it was)
Ship Obs - yes there have been errors like you have said, however you must look at the total volume of ship data (every data set has outliers)
Sea temp - How do you think they calibrated and ground truthed your vaulted sat sensors? thats right , a bucket and therm.. BTW (to aid your slam of ship obs) most commercial vessel sea water temps are from thermisters in the raw water intakes/sea chests up to 20-30 feet below the surface
Stiching togeather different data sets - Science has been doing that since forever.

Yeah, the current ship obs are different, I was talking historical SST values. Those are error-filled, primarily along shipping lanes, from the bucket-thermometer method, and biased towards good weather (no way did a vessel on the edge of survival have someone go take a water temp measurement)

The satellite SSTs values are not usually compared to ship obs for the depth reasons you point out. They are always compared to buoys and even then adjusted due to the depth there. The SSTs by satellite have been found to only represent temperatures of the top-most few millimeters.

Here is a buoy used for this endeavor, with the water temp taken one meter down: http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42001

Stiching togeather different data sets - Science has been doing that since forever

Yeah. Sometimes it works and sometimes it doesn't. Unknown, or not quantifiable biases of historical data (such as good-weather ship obs or undecipherable tree ring growth causes) joined together with satellite temps on a single line graph doesn't work for me. Little confidence in conclusions drawn from such methodology.

If someone were to validate land only satellite temps against rural-only surface obs and then put together historical obs and current land-only satellite temps, that would be better. Not perfect, but better. Wonder what sort of trend would show up. I really do. Not scared of high-confidence data, regardless of what it shows.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting superpete:
Kman.Might be time soon to advise hauling boats?


We still need to see what happens after the tail end of the front sags down into the SW Caribbean. It would probably be Monday before there would be any signs of potential development related to the front itself but if the convection we see there now sits long enough and that ridge of high pressure gets on top of it things could change sooner than that.

The last few runs of the NAM show a scenario where a prexisting low pressure area in the SW Caribbean mixes with the tail of the front and spins up a low that migrates to the NNW just offshore the coast of Nicaragua.

I know the NAM is not supposed to be a good call for tropical cyclogenesis but from time to time it is spot on and I wouldn't dismiss it just because it is a much maligned model for this type of discussion.

With the ECMWF jumping on the bandwagon for the SW Caribbean, next week could be interesting.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Very impressive ECMWF 12z:

Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30562
Cool day here in Tally looks like it won't get over 60 degrees!
Member Since: September 6, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 3759
Quoting atmoaggie:
(Really, though, his pants are RECTANGLE! A whole generation of kids calling a rectangle a square...)


Just so you know, my grandson noticed that when he was three (he's now 7) and asked why he was called square pants.


Quoting calusakat:
Sorry to have to tell you this; but, throwing yourself on the ground like a first grader might have worked with your teachers... it doesn't work very well here. Teachers might be easily distracted by such shenanigans, only problem is, we aren't your teacher. Been there, done that.


You obviously never had LOML as a teacher.
Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6010
Quoting kmanislander:
High pressure over the NW coast of Colombia now expanding W into the SW Caribbean

HI Kman, any thoughts on that flare up N of Panama & Costa Rica?
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 7930
post 857.

Looks like to ride up the west coast ala donna
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Atmo,...

Science,...here it is,...let's stay on it ok??

1) I readily admitted I was no "expert" on NOX,..other than knowing it was an important emission to control. The Power-gen industry has to worry about it. You ask me a question,..I'll directly answer it. Let's see if you can "do the same"? To your point,..the majority of NOX is indeed emmitted in the lower atmosphere, and as that guy from the IPCC pointed out,..its confusing. Down below,...it creates OZONE and causes health issues from that,...ok so far? Where we differ, is on what NOX does in the Stratosphere. According to him, (the IPCC guy who studies this specifically), NOX from gas turbine exhaust of jets, destroys OZONE where we need it,..to protect us from UV. Now,...I admit I left out the first part in my earlier entry,...it was the Stratosphere part I was referring to,..and could have perhaps stated that more clearly. But you are incorrect about it not destroying OZONE,..(in the Stratosphere),...that guy,..(get his name if it makes a difference) as well as the astronomers from University of CA at Berkley. ALLLLL of them said NOX destroys OZONE catalytically(sp?) reducing our UV protection. Can you admit to your error on this part of it???

You asked for direct,..straight ahead discussion of the Science,..(THERE IT IS),..no politics ok??

What is your "non-political" objective, Science input on that?


Quoting atmoaggie:
rocketboy105 :

I scientifically addressed every CNN science point you brought up.

And I did by talking about the subject, not the poster. Everyone here knows I am not a Ditto-head, card carrying party member, etc. Try lurking for a while before you have diarrhea fingers in a public forum next time.

As a matter of fact, I had an internship with the DOE-sponsored Global Change Education Program. http://www.atmos.anl.gov/GCEP/

When you decide to take of the politics-colored glasses and become capable of discussion science with both output and input on your behalf, let someone know to tell me to take off my list. Your posts are so bad, I might be tempted to break my never-been-banned streak. (I am rather proud of myself, at this point, that I haven't been baited by your cranial density and lack of people skills. Though, liberals that are knuckle-draggers make me laugh hard at the irony...thanks for the funnies.)

Have you figured out that man made NOx is really all about generation of tropospheric ozone, yet? I hate for people to just spew whatever comes to mind, like you did in one of your first posts. That would be much like all of you have accused me of, when you had no idea what you were talking about (a.k.a. diarrhea fingers ).
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
SW Caribbean starting to look interesting!
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 7930
Quoting kmanislander:


Maybe the " unreliable " NAM is on to something eh ? LOL
Kman.Might be time soon to advise hauling boats?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
899. IKE
Quoting WaterWitch11:


Hi Ike,

I asked about this model earlier when storm w posted it. I get confused on this one. i fully see the storm approaching florida. my question was the storm on the west coast. it's there and then just kind of disappears. could you voice your opinion the west coast part of it. thank you sir.


It runs from Oct. 20th through the 27th. The end of the run is when it's paralleling the SW coast of Florida....then it goes back to this coming Tuesday...October 20th.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
310 PM EDT SAT OCT 17 2009

EXTENDED...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...APPEARS THAT A MORE RAPID
RECOVERY IS IN PLACE BY THE MIDDLE AND LATER PART OF THE WEEK. ONCE
THE RIDGING BUILDS NORTH AND EAST OF THE KEYS...THE RAPID
MODIFICATION IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER RESULTS IN A RETURN TO NEAR
NORMAL HIGHS AND LOWS ON WEDNESDAY. LOWER LEVEL RIDGING IS EXPECTED
TO BUILD JUST NORTH OF THE KEYS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
THURSDAY THRU NEXT WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH ABOVE
NORMAL AGAIN. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO
VARIOUS MODEL SOLUTIONS TRYING TO BRING A TROUGH OF LOWER PRESSURE
UP TOWARDS FLORIDA LATE IN THE WEEK OR THE WEEKEND
SO GUIDANCE IS
INDICATING WELL ABOVE NORMAL RAIN CHANCES. GIVEN THIS
UNCERTAINTY...WILL HOLD WITH NEAR NORMAL RAIN CHANCES...WHICH IS 20
PERCENT AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting IKE:


That's me.

Got pretzels this afternoon.

Ike, you Rock!
please re-post entire list for me (and others) for Blog Guidance for Climate Change debates (and that gizmo smiley face knocking his head against the brick wall.)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting winter123:


seems like a surface trough on the eastern side of this image, right?



I looked at that this morning and only noted a strong convergence line running pretty much E to W. There is some vorticity out there though but very late in the season for anything that far East to develop and make its way further W than 40 or 50 degrees. Lots of shear North of 10 degrees.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
895. Skyepony (Mod)

I thought of that blob in the SW caribbean when I was looking at the 12Z ECMWF run. Even though it starts about 72hrs out, the front is gonna kinda hold up the wave parade, stearing already looks disrupted & the ULL just moved far enough away for that one to fester. The wave on the east side of S America seems kinda far off to pull that in 3 days.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 174 Comments: 38177
Quoting IKE:


Agree. Looks like a major-cane.


Hi Ike,

I asked about this model earlier when storm w posted it. I get confused on this one. i fully see the storm approaching florida. my question was the storm on the west coast. it's there and then just kind of disappears. could you voice your opinion the west coast part of it. thank you sir.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
893. xcool
let waiting and seeing on model runs.!!!! imo
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting seflagamma:
Kman, I sure hope those models are wrong...
lol

be back later to check on things.

thanks for all the info you are providing.

sure hope Rick calms down before making landfall.


I hope so too. At least it shows it ramping up just after passing us but still I wouldn't want to see it head anywhere near land looking like that.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting IKE:


Best to see what the 18Z GFS says. It'll be running in a couple of hours.


thanks Ike!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Less lightning around Rick's core than there was earlier...a sign of weakening? To be seen.


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Hey rocketboy...Thanks for wasting our time with your senseless and ill-informed diatribe.

Obviously, you have not been around this blog long enough to know that atmo is very knowledgeable about weather phenomenon and the correct methodology in observing it. At least Atmo is willing to cite his sources... something you seem to be totally incapable of doing since you have yet to do it.

Yours is a prime example, once again, of how to distort facts until they 'appear' to be true.

Sure do hope that you are not employed in any form of research because anything you would come up with is going be totally predictable in its outcome and totally worthless.

Sorry to have to tell you this; but, throwing yourself on the ground like a first grader might have worked with your teachers... it doesn't work very well here. Teachers might be easily distracted by such shenanigans, only problem is, we aren't your teacher. Been there, done that.

Finally, it would appear that you are one of those people Lord Monckton referred to. You have been caught with your true political leanings pulled down around your ankles.

Quoting rocketboy105:
You go centex; agree with you totally. Don%u2019t worry about %u201CAtmo%u201D,%u2026you%u2019ve just heard from this blog%u2019s chief red team Climate Change denier, and %u201CStuff-Maker-Upper%u201D. When you ask him specific, factually based questions on Climate Change, he just makes stuff up on the fly, when you call him on it, he goes into evasion mode, bragging about the places he%u2019s worked, e.g. %u201CI worked at NASA%u201D,%u2026as though blurting that out is a substitute for a Science based reply to the subject.

Case in point, I recently made an entry about Dr. Kerry Emanuel%u2019s work on connecting increased average Hurricane Intensity to Cooling of the Stratosphere as well as warming of the ocean,%u2026both effects are from increased CO2 levels, (and other gasses). This Stratospheric cooling was first measured, and then unexpectedly confirmed by NASA. They (NASA) noticed the %u201Corbital decay rate%u201D of satellites had gone down, (satellites were staying up longer), when they checked it,%u2026they found the CO2 induced, Stratospheric cooling had caused the atmosphere to pull in slightly, (cooler is denser, takes up less volume, reduces altitude), lowering the drag on the satellites. Mr. Atmo,..instead of addressing the Scientific phenomenon in question, just spit-tuned out questions that were %u201Cintellectual saw dust%u201D, (filler material) that had nothing to do with the price of candles in California.

Say Atmo, while you were getting your Masters Degree in Subterfuge at %u201CKARL ROVE UNIVERSITY%u201D, what text book did they use for that? Was it %u201CClimate of Fear%u201D, by Michael Creighton? He%u2019s a pro, perhaps the most gifted, Climate Change Stuff-Maker-Upper of our times. His book, is a masterpiece of public disinformation through %u201CCherry Picking%u201D and junk Science. Subterfuge? That guy is right up there with the best Corporate Psychopathy Wall Street has to offer.

Atmo, I have an idea for you; why don%u2019t you apply for a fellowship in deception at any of the following think tanks.

1) AEI, The American Enterprise Institute
2) CEI The Competitive Enterprise Institute
3) The CATO Institute
4) Also try the Chamber of Commerce, then there is always EXXON

They%u2019re all fronts for big business, and the fossil fuel lobby, and pay handsomely for creative lies, (still need work on your creativity). Why let your skill set go to waste? Since no %u201CScientific rigor or objectivity%u201D is required you%u2019ll fit right in; and like you, they believe economic self interest is the reason life was invented. If you work really hard, you might score an interview on FOX News with your red team hero and mentor KARL ROVE.

Happy SUBTERFUGING,%u2026..

:-))




Member Since: Posts: Comments:
888. xcool
hurricane23 haha
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
887. IKE
Quoting seflagamma:
Kman, I sure hope those models are wrong...
lol

be back later to check on things.

thanks for all the info you are providing.

sure hope Rick calms down before making landfall.


Best to see what the 18Z GFS says. It'll be running in a couple of hours.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
886. IKE
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:
Holy Moses,
Hi, all, just popped in this p.m. -- maybe you all know I work w/ disaster assistance & CERT, so I come on here for guidance -- I see potential disasters bigtime 'bout everywhere...and they're STILL arguing climate change, ROTFLMAO...except there's some serious stuff out there! Oh well,
Now which one of you very funny regular guys makes that hilarious list...
popcorn...check
pepsi (diet coke here)...check
etc.
sit back and watch the fireworks...check
"not gonna' go there... nope..."


That's me.

Got pretzels this afternoon.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Hahahahahahaha!!!!!
And he reposted it to make sure I saw it!

This dude has got to go find something to do. Maybe SquareBob SpongePants is on.

(Really, though, his pants are RECTANGLE! A whole generation of kids calling a rectangle a square...)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Holy Moses,
Hi, all, just popped in this p.m. -- maybe you all know I work w/ disaster assistance & CERT, so I come on here for guidance -- I see potential disasters bigtime 'bout everywhere...and they're STILL arguing climate change, ROTFLMAO...except there's some serious stuff out there! Oh well,
Now which one of you very funny regular guys makes that hilarious list...
popcorn...check
pepsi (diet coke here)...check
etc.
sit back and watch the fireworks...check
"not gonna' go there... nope..."
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Kman, I sure hope those models are wrong...
lol

be back later to check on things.

thanks for all the info you are providing.

sure hope Rick calms down before making landfall.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting winter123:
this looks suspicious too. Just ITCZ stuff right now but I see spinning... looking for data to support it.



seems like a surface trough on the eastern side of this image, right?

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
881. IKE
Quoting kmanislander:


Maybe the " unreliable " NAM is on to something eh ? LOL


Could be. NAM and GFS show a lot of moisture in that area. Don't see anything on the 12Z CMC, 12Z UKMET or 12Z NOGAPS in the next 3-4 days.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting ElConando:


We have a CAT 4 in the EPAC? that fun enough for you?


Wow... Not really fun though.
Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 10442
this looks suspicious too. Just ITCZ stuff right now but I see spinning... looking for data to support it.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
T'fan and Ike,
thank you so much.
will check back again for more information. I heard a few other say something about possible develope in caribbean but been saying that all year and nothing developing...
my daugher and grandson are flying in Monday 10/26 from Philly to come home for the week and so grandson will be with his cousins for Halloween.. cannot really do Halloween up there where they live now outside Philly too cold for a little tot.
We really cannot be messing with any hurricanes during this time.


Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 928 - 878

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.