Second warmest September on record for the globe
The globe recorded its second warmest September since record keeping began in 1880, according to NOAA's National Climatic Data Center. The combined global land and ocean temperature anomaly was 0.62°C (1.12°F), falling only 0.04°C (0.07°F) short of tying the record set in 2005. NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies also rated September 2009 as the 2nd warmest September on record, falling 0.02°C short of the record set in 2005. It was the 33rd consecutive September with a global temperature above the 20th century average. NOAA rated the year-to-date period, January - September 2009, as the sixth warmest such period on record. The September satellite-measured temperatures for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were the 2nd warmest on record, behind 1998. Global ocean Sea Surface Temperature (SST) anomalies, however, cooled a bit, and were the 5th warmest on record. Global SSTs were the warmest on record during the Northern Hemisphere summer, June - August.
Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for September 2009. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center.
A warm September for the U.S., and record heat in the West
For the contiguous U.S., the average September temperature was 1.0°F above average, making it the 32nd warmest September in the 115-year record, according to the National Climatic Data Center. The West had is warmest September on record, with Nevada and California recording their warmest September, and six other western states observing a top-ten warmest September--Montana (3rd warmest), North Dakota (3rd), Idaho (4th), Utah (5th), Minnesota (6th), and Oregon (8th). However, a combination a slow-moving storm system during the beginning of the month and two surface cold fronts during the last week resulted in much below normal temperature averages in Kansas (10th coolest) and Oklahoma (11th coolest). The year-to-date (January - September) period was the 29th warmest such period for the contiguous U.S.
U.S. precipitation near average
U.S. precipitation in September was exactly average. Statewide-averaged rainfall was among the ten wettest for four southern states (Arkansas, 2nd wettest; Tennessee (5th), Mississippi (6th), and Alabama (6th)). Maine and Wisconsin each experienced their fourth driest September and both New Hampshire and Michigan had their seventh driest such periods.
U.S. drought
At the end of September, 15% of the contiguous United States was in moderate-to-exceptional drought. This is a drop from the 19% figure observed at the beginning of the year. Exceptional drought (the worst category of drought) was seen in South to Central Texas, though the area covered by exceptional drought shrank by 50% over the past month, thanks to much-needed rains over the region.
U.S. fire activity
During September, 5,535 fires burned approximately 378,523 acres, each of which was below the 2000 - 2009 average for the month. The acreage lost to wildfire was roughly half of the 2000 - 2009 average. For the year to date (January.September), 70,217 fires was slightly above the 10-year average, while acreage burned was slightly less than average.
Weak El Niño conditions continue
El Niño conditions continue over the tropical Eastern Pacific. Ocean temperatures in the area 5°N - 5°S, 120°W - 170°W, also called the "Niña 3.4 region", were 0.3°C above the threshold for a weak El Niño, according to the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center is maintaining an El Niño Advisory. Current conditions and model forecasts favor the continued development of a weak-to-moderate strength El Niño event into the Northern Hemisphere Fall 2009, with the likelihood of at least a moderate strength El Niño (3-month Niño-3.4 SST index of +1.0°C or greater) during the Northern Hemisphere Winter 2009-10.
September sea ice extent in the Arctic 3rd lowest on record
September 2009 Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent was the 3rd lowest since satellite measurements began in 1979, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC). Only 2007 and 2008 saw lower Arctic sea ice extent. Both the Northwest Passage and Northeast Passage melted free, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center. This marks the second consecutive year--and the second time in recorded history--both of these Arctic shipping routes have melted free. The past five years have had the five lowest Arctic ice extents on record. In their 2009 report on this year's Arctic sea ice minimum, NSIDC Director and Senior Scientist Mark Serreze said, "It's nice to see a little recovery over the past couple years, but there's no reason to think that we're headed back to conditions seen back in the 1970s. We still expect to see ice-free summers sometime in the next few decades". Only 19% of the ice cover this summer in the Arctic was over 2 years old, the least in the satellite record, and far below the 1981 - 2000 average of 52%. NSIDC Scientist Walt Meier said, "We've preserved a fair amount of first-year ice and second-year ice after this summer compared to the past couple of years. If this ice remains in the Arctic through the winter, it will thicken, which gives some hope of stabilizing the ice cover over the next few years. However, the ice is still much younger and thinner than it was in the 1980s, leaving it vulnerable to melt during the summer". Earlier this summer, NASA researcher Ron Kwok and colleagues from the University of Washington in Seattle published satellite data showing that Arctic ice thickness declined by 0.68 meters (2.2 feet) between 2004 and 2008. The overall mean winter thickness was 3.64 meters in 1980, and 1.89 meters during the winter of 2007 - 2008, a massive decrease of 48%.
References
Kwok, R., and D. A. Rothrock. 2009. Decline in Arctic sea ice thickness from submarine and ICESat records: 1958.2008, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L15501, doi:10.1029/2009GL039035.
Figure 2. Category 1 Typhoon Lupit in the Philippine Sea at 04:45 UTC October 16, 2009. Image credit: NASA MODIS Rapid Response System.
Tropical update
In the Atlantic, there are no threat areas to discuss, and none of the computer models is calling for tropical storm formation over the next week.
There are two potential serious threats in the Pacific. Tropical Storm Rick off the Pacific coast of Mexico is expected to recurve to the north and threaten Baja late next week. While Rick is expected to become a major hurricane early next week, the storm should weaken significantly before any potential landfall in Mexico, due to high wind shear and cooler ocean temperatures the storm will find as it approaches Baja.
More seriously, Typhoon Lupit in the Western Pacific is expected to intensify into a Category 4 typhoon and threaten the northern Philippines by Tuesday. Last week, Super Typhoon Parma crossed over the northern Philippines three times, dumping over twenty inches of rain in many locations. Over 300 people died in the resulting flash floods and landslides. A visit by Typhoon Lupit could create a major catastrophe in the northern Philippines as the storm dumps another 1 - 2 feet of rain on the already saturated soils.
My next post will be Sunday or Monday.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Baha - you in Georgetown? If it doesn't cool here in ClarenceTown soon, there will be nuttin left of me but a puddle..
I agree with u with the puddle thing. It's ridiculous to be sweating this much so late in October.... lol
Is that ex Tropical Storm Nepartak
Here is what the NAM does with the tail end of the front at 84 hrs.
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The GFS is more reasonable showing an increase in deep layer moisture over the Western Caribbean along the tail end of a front. The NAM is rather unreliable when it comes to the tropics.
I can see the SW Caribbean starting to flare up. At the least, look for a big increase in moisture in the western Caribbean by the first of the week.
Long Island is incredible. Love the family islands... talcum sand, no phones and good people.
That is generally true but the GFS has not performed well this year. The NAM did pick up TD1 in the SW Caribbean when none of the other models did.
The one caveat I see with the run is that the NAM is very fast in spinning up the low whereas it usually takes a few days for that to happen down there this time of year.
When you run the loop though it shows a preexisting area of low pressure there and the tail end of the front mixes into that to spin up the low. Something interesting to watch for.
really enjoyed reading the background info on you...very nice...Thanks!
Hi Ike,
I can't wait for some cool air when the front passes through here late this weekend. Still in the 90's here.
First, the GFS has not done well this year, true but model consensus has. The NAM has not gotten any system right when it was alone as in this case (the ECWMF is in a different time frame).
Second, TD 1? Not 1 system formed in the Caribbean this year.
I seem to recall that there was a TD in the SW Caribbean that did not become a named storm. Maybe it was just an organised low. Anyway, I hear what you say. Let's see if anything comes of the front.
There were no depressions in the Caribbean this year. There was a low pressure area in the SW in mid June (forecasted by the GFS) and 93L (also forecasted by other models) so the NAM was never alone for any such system.
The NAM was the first to pick it up, whatever it was. I recall that fairly clearly, and certainly well before the GFS.
thanks
It may have been an Invest. I am going from memory. It was much earlier in the season.
Looks like rick is going through a EWRC.
All of my peeps come from the SE Islands - I have family over there everywhere except Inagua - and sometimes I think we have the best of the Bahamas. OTOH, I like phones because I like my internet access.... lol However, there has been a gradual increase in infrastructural amenities without too much destruction of the Family Island ambience. It's a good place to go if u genuinely want to get away. Only place in the US I've found comparable are the Winds and Bighorn Mountains area of Wyoming... U can really "get away", and nobody bothers u....
What you are seeming to indicate that you want to see happen is worldwide socialism.
Yeah that idea works every time it is tried. NOT!!
I guess the best way to describe your views is 'success envy'.
If I have something you don't, then I don't deserve to have it...is that how you see things??
Why else would you say something about me being very possessive of my possessions? Unless you believe that it is okay for you to take my stuff forcefully, those so called possessions of mine are just that MINE...NOT YOURS.
As for your thought on percentages, two percent of $10,000 is $200. Apparently you believe that a hard working family of four that has the gall to earn eighty thousand dollars per year deserves to be forced to pay over $1600!! Hardly what anyone would call chump change. And why?...Because of some half baked unproven theory that has less than a decade of history under its belt to rely on?
The mentality you are presenting here is a prime example of how badly off track many weather researchers really are.
For example, we are told about temperature variations dating back to 1880. Did you ever consider how truly inaccurate thermometers were back then. Did you ever consider how little money was being spent on weather research back then and subsequently how few sampling points were in existence during those years?
All this smoke about this being the second warmest year is a sad example of how sloppy we have all become in allowing such blatantly biased data manipulation to go unchallenged.
That's not to say something will definitely happen; just noting that seeing the NAM pick that up makes me watch that area closely.
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AOI
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One thing going for the NAM on this is climatology. The SW Caribbean and the tail end of a front in Oct or Nov. is not a good recipe in any year.
I have to disagree. The NAM has been forecasting tropical storms in the Caribbean, SW Atlantic and GOM all season long that never materialized. I do not regard the model as reliable when it comes to tropical development since it not design for the tropics. If we are trying to assess the likelihood of tropical development next week in the W Caribbean why use the NAM? Why not use another more reliable model to get a more precise, reasonable and accurate handle that likelihood?
Did you see Weather 456's Blog, he touched in it also.
"I will also be monitoring the Western Caribbean, which is a more climatologically favourable area than discussed above. The ECMWF continues to forecast the development of a depression over the SW Caribbean that moves towards the north. Such a feature would recurve under the influence of advancing frontal systems."
It's the NAM (unreliable with the tropics) forecasting Ida in 24 m/s wind shear in 84 hrs Versus the other global models forecasting deep layer moisture along the tail end of a front in the face if 24 m/s wind shear in 84 hrs.
While I touched on it, thats in 168 hrs. The NAM is forecasting development in 84 hrs.
I was basically just trying to get across the fact that it looks like the models are both sniffing at something happening in the upcoming week or so.
Looking at Rick, and the power he is throwing off... and the (path/paths/I have no idea tracks), they are showing.. I wouldn't be all that surprised to have something pop on the Atlantic side of him.
This comment is very poorly worded... only half a cup of coffee so far.
Hope you get some.
That is true but I would go with the ECMWF solution I presented in my blog. My main argument is that I would not go with the NAM's time frame and/or solution because 1) its not reliable when it comes to the tropics and 2) shear does not decreases until after 144 hrs.
I am not against development in the W Caribbean, let it be known, but against the NAM.
Here is a question for you oh young weather god.. Looking at the picture in #743, and because its way out of my pay scale. Can Rick spawn something in the BOC. It almost looks like that is trying to happen now?
From since I heard that song on Family Guy I was trying to figure out who singed it.
i guess i can contribute something to this board! LOL
I'm no weather god.
Second, it almost happened with Andreas earlier this year and the answer in this case is no. The reason being after that front clears the area, the northerly winds will significantly increase in what we called the Tehuantepec Wind Event....it will disrupt any circulation from forming.
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