Second warmest September on record for the globe

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:49 PM GMT on October 16, 2009

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The globe recorded its second warmest September since record keeping began in 1880, according to NOAA's National Climatic Data Center. The combined global land and ocean temperature anomaly was 0.62°C (1.12°F), falling only 0.04°C (0.07°F) short of tying the record set in 2005. NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies also rated September 2009 as the 2nd warmest September on record, falling 0.02°C short of the record set in 2005. It was the 33rd consecutive September with a global temperature above the 20th century average. NOAA rated the year-to-date period, January - September 2009, as the sixth warmest such period on record. The September satellite-measured temperatures for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were the 2nd warmest on record, behind 1998. Global ocean Sea Surface Temperature (SST) anomalies, however, cooled a bit, and were the 5th warmest on record. Global SSTs were the warmest on record during the Northern Hemisphere summer, June - August.


Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for September 2009. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center.

A warm September for the U.S., and record heat in the West
For the contiguous U.S., the average September temperature was 1.0°F above average, making it the 32nd warmest September in the 115-year record, according to the National Climatic Data Center. The West had is warmest September on record, with Nevada and California recording their warmest September, and six other western states observing a top-ten warmest September--Montana (3rd warmest), North Dakota (3rd), Idaho (4th), Utah (5th), Minnesota (6th), and Oregon (8th). However, a combination a slow-moving storm system during the beginning of the month and two surface cold fronts during the last week resulted in much below normal temperature averages in Kansas (10th coolest) and Oklahoma (11th coolest). The year-to-date (January - September) period was the 29th warmest such period for the contiguous U.S.

U.S. precipitation near average
U.S. precipitation in September was exactly average. Statewide-averaged rainfall was among the ten wettest for four southern states (Arkansas, 2nd wettest; Tennessee (5th), Mississippi (6th), and Alabama (6th)). Maine and Wisconsin each experienced their fourth driest September and both New Hampshire and Michigan had their seventh driest such periods.

U.S. drought
At the end of September, 15% of the contiguous United States was in moderate-to-exceptional drought. This is a drop from the 19% figure observed at the beginning of the year. Exceptional drought (the worst category of drought) was seen in South to Central Texas, though the area covered by exceptional drought shrank by 50% over the past month, thanks to much-needed rains over the region.

U.S. fire activity
During September, 5,535 fires burned approximately 378,523 acres, each of which was below the 2000 - 2009 average for the month. The acreage lost to wildfire was roughly half of the 2000 - 2009 average. For the year to date (January.September), 70,217 fires was slightly above the 10-year average, while acreage burned was slightly less than average.

Weak El Niño conditions continue
El Niño conditions continue over the tropical Eastern Pacific. Ocean temperatures in the area 5°N - 5°S, 120°W - 170°W, also called the "Niña 3.4 region", were 0.3°C above the threshold for a weak El Niño, according to the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center is maintaining an El Niño Advisory. Current conditions and model forecasts favor the continued development of a weak-to-moderate strength El Niño event into the Northern Hemisphere Fall 2009, with the likelihood of at least a moderate strength El Niño (3-month Niño-3.4 SST index of +1.0°C or greater) during the Northern Hemisphere Winter 2009-10.

September sea ice extent in the Arctic 3rd lowest on record
September 2009 Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent was the 3rd lowest since satellite measurements began in 1979, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC). Only 2007 and 2008 saw lower Arctic sea ice extent. Both the Northwest Passage and Northeast Passage melted free, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center. This marks the second consecutive year--and the second time in recorded history--both of these Arctic shipping routes have melted free. The past five years have had the five lowest Arctic ice extents on record. In their 2009 report on this year's Arctic sea ice minimum, NSIDC Director and Senior Scientist Mark Serreze said, "It's nice to see a little recovery over the past couple years, but there's no reason to think that we're headed back to conditions seen back in the 1970s. We still expect to see ice-free summers sometime in the next few decades". Only 19% of the ice cover this summer in the Arctic was over 2 years old, the least in the satellite record, and far below the 1981 - 2000 average of 52%. NSIDC Scientist Walt Meier said, "We've preserved a fair amount of first-year ice and second-year ice after this summer compared to the past couple of years. If this ice remains in the Arctic through the winter, it will thicken, which gives some hope of stabilizing the ice cover over the next few years. However, the ice is still much younger and thinner than it was in the 1980s, leaving it vulnerable to melt during the summer". Earlier this summer, NASA researcher Ron Kwok and colleagues from the University of Washington in Seattle published satellite data showing that Arctic ice thickness declined by 0.68 meters (2.2 feet) between 2004 and 2008. The overall mean winter thickness was 3.64 meters in 1980, and 1.89 meters during the winter of 2007 - 2008, a massive decrease of 48%.

References
Kwok, R., and D. A. Rothrock. 2009. Decline in Arctic sea ice thickness from submarine and ICESat records: 1958.2008, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L15501, doi:10.1029/2009GL039035.


Figure 2. Category 1 Typhoon Lupit in the Philippine Sea at 04:45 UTC October 16, 2009. Image credit: NASA MODIS Rapid Response System.

Tropical update
In the Atlantic, there are no threat areas to discuss, and none of the computer models is calling for tropical storm formation over the next week.

There are two potential serious threats in the Pacific. Tropical Storm Rick off the Pacific coast of Mexico is expected to recurve to the north and threaten Baja late next week. While Rick is expected to become a major hurricane early next week, the storm should weaken significantly before any potential landfall in Mexico, due to high wind shear and cooler ocean temperatures the storm will find as it approaches Baja.

More seriously, Typhoon Lupit in the Western Pacific is expected to intensify into a Category 4 typhoon and threaten the northern Philippines by Tuesday. Last week, Super Typhoon Parma crossed over the northern Philippines three times, dumping over twenty inches of rain in many locations. Over 300 people died in the resulting flash floods and landslides. A visit by Typhoon Lupit could create a major catastrophe in the northern Philippines as the storm dumps another 1 - 2 feet of rain on the already saturated soils.

My next post will be Sunday or Monday.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting atmoaggie:

Yeahhh, awfully authoritarian for being a noob, if that is what he really is.

Maybe he a duplicate of one of the handles on many of our iggy lists.

Hey, AtlantMet, there is a guy named stormjunkie you need to bash next. Make sure you do if he visits.


roflmao!!! that was good.

now I do really really really have to go for the night!

have fun.
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Quoting Melagoo:
Presslord said he is wifeless this weekend and that his son's very hot girlfriend is coming over to watch movies - UMMMMM?

... on a weather blog ... he should have said - I miss my very hot wife!
Speaking of hot, isn't that weather related anyway ?
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8436
Quoting Melagoo:
Presslord said he is wifeless this weekend and that his son's very hot girlfriend is coming over to watch movies - UMMMMM?

... on a weather blog ... he should have said - I miss my very hot wife!

ROFLMAO - Touche (w/accent)!
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 32 Comments: 1918
18 Z GFS hinting at a TD-like system at 192 hours. Take with a salt block (grain not enough)


((click for full size)
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1224. xcool
Temp
54.0°F it start to get cold outside oh nooo!!@!@
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
1223. Melagoo
Presslord said he is wifeless this weekend and that his son's very hot girlfriend is coming over to watch movies - UMMMMM?

... on a weather blog ... he should have said - I miss my very hot wife!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting seflagamma:
hummmm...somebody here needs to be
a) ignored
b) banned
c) flagged

actually do it in reverse order.

AtlantaMET,
You MUST have a sense of humor to post on this blog!
you just keep on saying the wrong things to special people here!

Yeahhh, awfully authoritarian for being a noob, if that is what he really is.

Maybe he a duplicate of one of the handles on many of our iggy lists.

Hey, AtlantMet, there is a guy named stormjunkie you need to bash next. Make sure you do if he visits.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:

I understand; I can't post that kind of stuff on Facebook or similar either so it was kind of dumb of me to ask.
I know you have our support, thoughts, prayers, meditations...
Amen
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8436
A very well define eye supported by a solid CDO and spiral banding

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1219. xcool
UPDATE BY:Jim Williams... The Atlantic basin remains quiet due to unfavorable conditions. This is the time of hurricane season where we look in the Caribbean & Gulf Of Mexico. Cold fronts pushing through Florida can stall out in the Caribbean and sometimes low pressure can form over the warm waters. The European model which has been very good this year shows development in the western Caribbean late next week.
Since 1900 only 26.85% of all hurricane seasons had the last name storm form before October 15th,so this season may not be over yet

http://www.hurricanecity.com/
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting AtlantaMET:


Are you being serious? I have not done anything wrong. That post does not belong in this blog. The other day IKE and others bashed me and ignore because I said cold weather is boring and so is the Atlantic. What is wrong with you people? If you don't agree with someone you disrespect them and put them on ignore. It seems very childish, like putting your fingers in your ear and singing "LA la la la la la".
The blog tends to get very intense when something has developed or looks like it might develop and sometimes a joke is the way to ease some tension. If you had been on here for any length of time you would know there are a few on here that do the comedian bit to lighten the mood. Just chill and all will be well.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8436
1217. xcool
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Not allowed to disclose that.. Sorry! I was informed though at about 8:30 p.m yesterday, but still not really on paper yet.

I understand; I can't post that kind of stuff on Facebook or similar either so it was kind of dumb of me to ask.
I know you have our support, thoughts, prayers, meditations...
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 32 Comments: 1918
1210
The 3:10 update has Rick at 160 mph cat 5.
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Quoting seflagamma:
hummmm...somebody here needs to be
a) ignored
b) banned
c) flagged

actually do it in reverse order.

AtlantaMET,
You MUST have a sense of humor to post on this blog!
you just keep on saying the wrong things to special people here!
Thanks for expressing my feelings too.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8436
Quoting AtlantaMET:


That comment does not belong here. I flagged and reported that to the administrators.

Oh gosh, Press is just joking around with his friends that he's known a long time. He's a really caring person who does a huge amount of charity work that is supported by this blog, inc. Doc Masters.
Perhaps you thought you were defending womanhood, but we're okay, really, thnx. anyway.
(BTW, I'm more than a decade older than my husband...I don't think he's too sorry, yet...says he's going to flush my ashes, though.)
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 32 Comments: 1918
I can't believe how some peoples minds head to the gutter so fast.

As for presslord
Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6010
1210. Melagoo


Look at the Funk Top image Rick is super pumped I wonder what the wind speed is now?
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456,
I read it yesterday and it was great!
You are really good at this forcasting thing.
glad you are here for us.

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Quoting largeeyes:
I'm 28, wifes 39. There are certain benefits to going after the more experienced lady :)


But what happens when your 49 and shes 60?

hmm maybe I shouldn't be asking that... :P
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Quoting AwakeInMaryland:

C-Teddy,
Did you get your deployment orders (or not to deploy) finalized? (Fingers crossed.)


Not allowed to disclose that.. Sorry! I was informed though at about 8:30 p.m yesterday, but still not really on paper yet.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24553
If anyone missed it

Friday's blog update - a short biography of myself.

Today's Blog Update
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1198. Presslord being Presslord but then again what dad wouldn't love that.
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hummmm...somebody here needs to be
a) ignored
b) banned
c) flagged

actually do it in reverse order.

AtlantaMET,
You MUST have a sense of humor to post on this blog!
you just keep on saying the wrong things to special people here!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting sebastianflorida:
12Z European will it be correc?. If you didn't see it, it shows a major cane coming into SW Florida from the SW Caribbean. This is the first time I've seen it develop something in this area in 2009. Second run in a row. Could this be the swan song for 2009???


actually its more than 2 runs, but basically the same point being made. I would look for anything persisting over there in the Weather Caribbean through Tuesday to really get a handle on how credible this model is being with Ida-wannabe.
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Quoting BahaHurican:
Impressive and scary at the same time. Note the warm water where Rick is? Note that it's warmer on that shelf between Cuba and the Caymans? Sure hope we don't get even marginally favorable conditions in the WCar if we get some cyclogenesis there this week....
Surface sea water temp' here in Cayman 90 degree's F currently
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Is it just me, or does Hurricane Rick look more and more annular?
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Quoting presslord:
...he's 18...she's 24.....I simply cannot tell you how proud I am of him...


oh my goodness.. I could not resist the temptation of returning here for one last look after I got home and I see this remark!

ROFL!!!

Press, be good!!!


still very warm here in SE FLA BUT now there is a little NW breeze that feels like it may have some "cool" in there somewhere!!!

I hope so, already bought firewood for the firepit tomorrow night and all the fixin's for homemade chili for tomorrow.. we need cooler temps than 90's for that! LOL


Have a great Saturday evening!
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12Z European will it be correc?. If you didn't see it, it shows a major cane coming into SW Florida from the SW Caribbean. This is the first time I've seen it develop something in this area in 2009. Second run in a row. Could this be the swan song for 2009???
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Quoting AtlantaMET:


You are sick! This is aweather blog for pete's sake.
And your point is ?
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8436
1194. Melagoo


Rick looks mighty impressive!
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Nice shadow effect

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Quoting CybrTeddy:


Uhm.. sir, the wife's not going to like that remark. :)

C-Teddy,
Did you get your deployment orders (or not to deploy) finalized? (Fingers crossed.)
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 32 Comments: 1918
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:

1. "Honey Do" List TBA
2. Amount of Nagging TBD
3. Rewards directly in proportion to 1, upon wife's return


welcome to my life...
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Quoting presslord:
y'all are gonna have to babysit me some..I'm wifeless this weekend...

1. "Honey Do" List TBA
2. Amount of Nagging TBD
3. Rewards directly in proportion to 1, upon wife's return
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 32 Comments: 1918
I'm 28, wifes 39. There are certain benefits to going after the more experienced lady :)
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...he's 18...she's 24.....I simply cannot tell you how proud I am of him...
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Quoting presslord:
OK gang...thanks for baby sitting me...my son and his (incredibly hot) girlfriend are coming over to watch From Dusk 'til Dawn with me...


Uhm.. sir, the wife's not going to like that remark. :)
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24553
OK gang...thanks for baby sitting me...my son and his (incredibly hot) girlfriend are coming over to watch From Dusk 'til Dawn with me...
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1181, C-Teddy.

Sure hope it's the last for the season. Not anticipating AT ALL the concept of one of those in the CAR before this season is over.
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Press---you ain't kiddin. Freezin my arse off in New Bern. I have to do my scuba check out dives in Raleigh next weekend and the following at some quarry. Brrrr.
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Which reminds me I need to locate and scan my pictures from that storm. We had a few interesting events here, and that was also the first storm which hit the Bahamas that I was able to track via computer.
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Rick: The first Category 5 in the EPAC since Hurricane Kenna, (Ioke was in the CPAC) and the first Category 5 hurricane (not Typhoon or cyclone) since Hurricane Felix in 2007.

000
WTPZ65 KNHC 172208
TCUEP5
HURRICANE RICK TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202009
310 PM PDT SAT OCT 17 2009


...RICK BECOMES A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE...

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT RICK HAS BECOME A CATEGORY FIVE
HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE WITH MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 160 MPH...260 KM/HR.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA/BERG


Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24553


Rick
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1179. JRRP
Quoting Weather456:


lol

The bottom image is the 20 of August 2009

yeah i know :D
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Blast from the past.... one of the 10 rainiest hurricanes of the Bahamas since "modern" records began....



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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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