Outlook for the remainder of hurricane season

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:18 PM GMT on October 15, 2009

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Atlantic tropical cyclone activity finishes its peak phase in mid-October, and takes a major downturn after about October 20 (Figure 1). Since the current active hurricane period began in 1995, the last half of October through the end of hurricane season has given birth to an average of 1.7 named storms, 0.8 hurricanes, and 0.3 intense hurricanes. These numbers are nearly double the long-term climatological averages for the past 100 years. So far this year, only one tropical storm has hit the U.S.--Tropical Storm Claudette. If no more tropical storms make landfall in the U.S., it will be the first year since 1993 to see only one tropical storm hitting the U.S.


Figure 1. Atlantic hurricane season activity over the past 100 years.

Late October and November storms tend to form from tropical waves that come off the coast of Africa, or from the remains of old fronts that push off the coast of the U.S. As we can see from the track plot of all last half of October storms (Figure 2), there is a lot of activity during the period, but relatively few storms form out near the African coast. The water temperatures off the coast of Africa are starting to cool and be marginal for hurricane formation, and the African Monsoon is waning, leading to fewer African waves coming off the coast. Wind shear is also starting to increase, as part of its normal fall cycle.

Climatology of late-season major hurricanes
Let's examine the possibilities of getting a late-season major hurricane, since those are the storms we care most about. Since 1960, there have been twelve hurricanes that have existed as major Category 3 or higher storms after October 15. Eight of these have occurred since 1995: Omar of 2008 (Cat 4, Lesser Antilles), Paloma of 2008 (Cat 4, Cayman Islands and Cuba), Wilma of 2005 (Cat 4, Mexico; Cat 3, SW Florida), Beta of 2005 (Cat 3, Nicaragua), Michelle of 2001 (Cat 4, Cuba), Lenny of 1999 (Cat 4, northern Lesser Antilles), Mitch of 1998 (Cat 5, Honduras), and Lili of 1996 (Bahamas, Category 3). The other four were Joan of 1988 (Cat 4, Nicaragua), Kate of 1985 (Cat 3, Gulf of Mexico), Ella of 1962 (Cat 3, west of Bermuda), and Hattie of 1961 (Cat 4, Belize). Wilma of 2005 was the only major hurricane since 1960 to hit the U.S. after October 15. The highest risk region for late season major hurricanes is the Western Caribbean, along the coasts of Nicaragua, Honduras, Belize, Mexico, and Cuba. So, we can say with high confidence that most of the U.S. coast can relax. Only the west coast of Florida, Florida Keys, and South Florida need to still be concerned about the possibility of a major hurricane. The Lesser Antilles Islands, Puerto Rico, and Hispaniola are also at low risk for a major hurricane the remainder of the season.



Figure 2. Tracks of all tropical storms and hurricanes since 1851 that formed October 16-31.

Sea Surface Temperatures
Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) are 0.5 - 1.5°C above average over the Western Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico (Figure 3), the primary formation areas for late October storms. So, there is still plenty of fuel for a major hurricane to form. Note also the tongue of warmer than average SSTs extending out into the Pacific Ocean from the coast of South America, the signature of weak El Niño conditions.


Figure 3. Sea Surface Temperature (SST) departure from average for October 15. Image credit: NOAA.

Wind shear
Wind shear is usually defined as the difference in wind between 200 mb (roughly 40,000 foot altitude) and 850 mb (roughly 5,000 foot altitude). In most circumstances, wind shear above 20 knots will act to inhibit tropical storm formation by tearing a storm apart. Wind shear 10 knots and lower is very conducive for tropical storm formation.

The jet stream in mid-October is more active and extends further south, which brings higher levels of wind shear to the Atlantic. The more active jet stream also acts to recurve storms more quickly. Any system penetrating north of about 20 degrees north latitude we can expect to recurve quickly to the north and northeast this late in the season. The most recent 16-day forecast from the GFS model predicts a period of high wind shear over the tropical Atlantic over the next ten days (Figure 4). Beginning on October 25, wind shear is expected to fall again over the Western Caribbean, and we need to be alert for tropical storm formation then. Indeed, the latest run of the GFS model is predicting a large area of surface low pressure will form in the Western Caribbean during the last week of October, an indication that hurricane season may not be over yet.

El Niño
El Niño conditions, which typically bring higher wind shear to the Atlantic and interfere with hurricane formation, continue to be present in the tropical Eastern Pacific. It is probably the case that some of this year's inactivity can be attributed to El Niño. However, as I discussed in a post earlier this year, El Niño events that warm the central Pacific more than the eastern Pacific (called "modiki" El Niño events), tend to bring less wind shear to the Atlantic. In recent weeks, El Niño conditions in the Eastern Pacific have trended more towards a "modiki" type event, with a large amount of warming in the Central Pacific. This shift in the El Niño may bring lower wind shear to the Atlantic over the final month of hurricane season.


Figure 4. Wind shear forecast for October 23, 2009, as produced by the 00 UTC run on October 14, 2009 made by the GFS model. Wind shear below about 8 m/s (roughly 15 knots, red colors) is typically needed to allow tropical storm formation. There aren't too many red-colored areas over the prime breeding grounds for tropical storms in the Atlantic over the next ten days in this forecast.

Summary
Given how quiet the tropics are at present, and the forecast of a high wind shear regime lasting until October 25, I doubt any tropical storms will form over the next ten days. If we do get something, it would probably be in the middle Atlantic between Bermuda and the Azores, far from land. However, I am still wary of the possibility of a hurricane in the Caribbean the last week of October or in November this year. There is evidence that the Atlantic hurricane season is starting earlier and ending later in recent decades. Dr. Jim Kossin of the University of Wisconsin published a paper in 2008 titled, "Is the North Atlantic hurricane season getting longer?" He concluded that yes, there is a "apparent tendency toward more common early- and late-season storms that correlates with warming Sea Surface Temperature but the uncertainty in these relationships is high". We had two major hurricanes in the Caribbean after October 15 last year, and I give a 60% chance that we'll get a named storm in the Caribbean before hurricane season ends on November 30. Hurricane season is not over--it's just in hibernation.

Happy Valley to become Yucky Valley
Winter is fast approaching, and the season's first major snowstorm for the U.S. East Coast is coming this weekend, according to the wunderblog of Wunderground's Dr. Rob Carver. Conditions will be particularly nasty on Saturday in Happy Valley, where Penn State is situated. The surrounding hills may get 4 - 12 inches of snow, and rain mixed with snow with 36°F temperatures are expected for Saturday's Penn State - Minnesota game. Ugh, winter! I'll have a forecast for the coming winter in a post sometime in the next week.

The Senate has not yet voted on the proposal to cut NOAA funding. I will post a report when the vote occurs.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Skyepony:
I think Emanuel has been quite the pioneer. He hasn't discounted shear. He's certainly not with an increase in frequency of storms brought on by climate change.

He certainly was until convinced otherwise.
Quoting Skyepony:
But recognizes how the environment is more unstable & able to hold more water. Even with an increase in shear, once a storm gets out of hand & begins controlling the environment around it, excessive greenhouse gases allow it to grow stronger & dump more rain then before..

Of course that is part of the equation. The real question is how close the theoretical cooling and other changes at altitude is to what will really happen.
Quoting Skyepony:
He seems to be catching less flack these days now that we've seen a few max beyond what used to be the limit & feet of rain fall on several occasions. Even the AMS picked up some of his research. It's a shame about Gray.

Ummm, where have you been. The AMS have been firmly seated on that bandwagon, much to the chagrin of many members (myself included). They have been giving awards to Trenberth (IPCC grand wizard) and Hansen (jetwash doesn't warm thermometers next to runways), even.
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461
well, just got back from my first job training, it has got to be the best job one could ask for
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ugh...
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Quoting melwerle:
Haven't turned on the tv or read the news at all this morning Ike...was dumbfounded when I read it.


They didn't find the boy inside
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CNN just reported that the father of the boy in the balloon is a retired met...and a stromchaser...wonder if he's a regular here...
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10458
180. IKE
And no one was in it. Copters following a balloon and the child wasn't in it.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting shred3590:
Does anyone have a recommendation for good freeware for downloading and keeping data from a weather station? The software that came with my station only keeps 24 hours.

Try zdnet.com downloads for Weather Display
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178. IKE
Quoting melwerle:
Haven't turned on the tv or read the news at all this morning Ike...was dumbfounded when I read it.


It's about to reach the ground.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting Skyepony:
I think Emanuel has been quite the pioneer. He hasn't discounted shear. He's certainly not with an increase in frequency of storms brought on by climate change. But recognizes how the environment is more unstable & able to hold more water. Even with an increase in shear, once a storm gets out of hand & begins controlling the environment around it, excessive greenhouse gases allow it to grow stronger & dump more rain then before.. He seems to be catching less flack these days now that we've seen a few max beyond what used to be the limit & feet of rain fall on several occasions. Even the AMS picked up some of his research. It's a shame about Gray.
It was a long time ago. but I recall Emanuel stating that the contrast in temperatures within the upper atmosphere and the temperatures at the sea surface can ultimately effect the maximum intensity of a hurricane. The differentiating temperatures cause a more intense storm. If this is true, one would think the hot towers would be affected by this.
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Haven't turned on the tv or read the news at all this morning Ike...was dumbfounded when I read it.
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Quoting Skyepony:
Tim~ I guess just NOAA & NAVY hasn't named it yet, they've been calling it TS22W so I assumed they were waiting on another agency to call it.


I've noticed this morning but I'm sure it's more likely computer error. The JMA is calling it Lupit:

Link
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174. Skyepony (Mod)
Reminds me..SEpt numbers are out..

September Anomaly Rank(out of 130 years) Warmest year on Record
Global
Land +0.97°C (+1.75°F) 2nd warmest 2005 (+1.01°C/1.82°F)
Ocean +0.50°C (+0.90°F) 5th warmest 2003 (+0.57°C/1.03°F)
Land and Ocean +0.62°C (+1.12°F) 2nd warmest 2005 (+0.66°C/1.19°F)
Northern Hemisphere
Land +1.04°C (+1.87°F) 2nd warmest 2005 (+1.18°C/2.12°F)
Ocean +0.53°C (+0.95°F) 6th warmest 2003 (+0.65°C/1.17°F)
Land and Ocean +0.71°C (+1.28°F) 2nd warmest 2005 (+0.83°C/1.49°F)
Southern Hemisphere
Land +0.78°C (+1.40°F) 5th warmest 2007 (+1.04°C/1.87°F)
Ocean +0.49°C (+0.88°F) 4th warmest 1997 (+0.58°C/1.04°F)
Land and Ocean +0.53°C (+0.95°F) 2nd warmest 1997 (+0.65°C/1.17°F)


September Anomaly Rank(out of 31 years) Coolest Year on Record
UAH stratosphere -0.46°C (-0.83°F) 11th coolest 1996 (-0.80°C/-1.44°F)
*RSS stratosphere -0.41°C (-0.74°F) 10th coolest 1996 (-0.73°C/-1.31°F)
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 156 Comments: 36055
173. IKE
Quoting melwerle:
Did anyone read this story about the six year old who floated away on a balloon? Holy mackeral!

Link



It's on CNN...Headline News...MSNBC...FOX...
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Did anyone read this story about the six year old who floated away on a balloon? Holy mackeral!

Link
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AAAHHhhhh!!
There is heavy thunder rumbling just south of me, and it smells like rain.
A downpour for a couple hours would be just fine here. @ 11n 61w.
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170. Skyepony (Mod)
Tim~ I guess just NOAA & NAVY hasn't named it yet, they've been calling it TS22W so I assumed they were waiting on another agency to call it.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 156 Comments: 36055
169. Skyepony (Mod)
I think Emanuel has been quite the pioneer. He hasn't discounted shear. He's certainly not with an increase in frequency of storms brought on by climate change. But recognizes how the environment is more unstable & able to hold more water. Even with an increase in shear, once a storm gets out of hand & begins controlling the environment around it, excessive greenhouse gases allow it to grow stronger & dump more rain then before.. He seems to be catching less flack these days now that we've seen a few max beyond what used to be the limit & feet of rain fall on several occasions. Even the AMS picked up some of his research. It's a shame about Gray.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 156 Comments: 36055
Weather456: Thank you
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Live feed on CNN of Obama in NOLA
Member Since: August 11, 2008 Posts: 3 Comments: 1480
Quoting Skyepony:
Parma is gone. 93E is pulling together..May move a little closer to & rain on Central America some, then expected to turn left & not make landfall in the next 5 days. Someone name 22W already..

93E



22W



It's already a TS. I've already been referring to it as Lupit. I didn't know it was not officially named yet
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165. Skyepony (Mod)
Gamma~ I remember, we had almost flooded 2 weeks before from some never named invest that trained on me here...15"+ in a day. Luckily Irene wasn't packing lots of rain but did come through a Cat 1, we boarded up.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 156 Comments: 36055
Quoting rocketboy105:
High "Carnot Efficiency" is one indicator of the trend towards higher intensity in Cyclonic Storms. The French Thermodynamicist Carnot, was honored for his discovery that all "heat engines" operate between two temperatures; the heat source,...(for Hurricanes the ocean),...and the heat sink,...(again for Hurricanes its the Stratosphere). His equation is simply,... Eff. = 1-(TL/TH). Your actual efficiency can never exceed "the Carnot Efficiency". What is not being discussed much in the Climate Change debate,...is the cooling of the Stratosphere coupled with Warming oceans, that providing, not just one, but two, CO2 induced changes that is fueling Hurricanes to higher intensities. The CO2 models predicted the stratosphere would cool,...as CO2 was holding in more heat, (reducing leakage to space),...like adding insulation to one's attic,...the living space would warm,..the attic space would cool. NASA noticed it from a) Direct measurements of the Stratosphere,...-.6 deg. C. , b) confirmed when NASA Engineers noticed satellites were staying up longer than planed. Cooler Stratosphere,..caused it to actually "pull in" slightly,..reducing the already tiny drag on the satellites. By the numbers,.....prior to significant CO2 effects,..the Carnot Eff. was 1- (203/303) = 33.0033%. When the increase in ocean temp of .5 deg C,..and the cooling of the Stratosphere of -.6 deg C, is included you get
Eff. = 1-(202.4/303.5) = 33.3114%,...a seemingly small change,...but its enough to matter. The Carnot Eff. equation shows up in the equations to predict the max theoretical intensity of cyclonic storms in several places. What I'm surprised at,..is that even though the cooling of the Stratosphere has been measured,..and validated,..there has been little if no discussion of this fact,...in the debate on Climate Change and weather. In case anyone is interested,..Dr. Kerry Emanuel has a paper out on the cooling of the Stratosphere impacting Hurricane intensity. He's one of the world’s foremost experts in Hurricanes, and Climate Change. Just google the subject.

Good. I haven't seen much Carnot in here.

Cooling of the stratosphere would increase CAPE for severe weather outbreaks, too.

Problem with the TC intensity is Emanuel has rather completely disregarded anything thing that theoretical warming might introduce that disrupts or hinders the heat engine. More shear, for example.

Emanuel has done a lot of work in the realm of TCs and climate change, but is at odds with a lot of his peers and mentors, too. You should have seen his face when Bill Gray (his former PhD adviser) told him "You know better and frankly I am disappointed in you" in front of ~600 folks at the AMS meeting a couple of years ago immediately following one of Emanuel's presentations (I was sitting behind Gray).
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461
Quoting seflagamma:
does anyone remember this.

10th Anniversary of Hurricane Irene
October 15, 1999

Hit SE Florida totally unexpected.
Was never suppose to have become a Hurricane.
We had no watches or warnings and everyone had
to drive home from Work in rush hour traffic
with hurricane winds blowing (just cat 1) trees blowing over, power going out..and severe flooding.. my neighborhood was flooded for 3 days.

I remember, I was living in south west Florida at the time, that evening the sky had a strange orange color. I never saw anything like it before. My friend was living in Boca- Raton at the time, he said it was bad.
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162. Skyepony (Mod)
Parma is gone. 93E is pulling together..May move a little closer to & rain on Central America some, then expected to turn left & not make landfall in the next 5 days. Someone name 22W already..

93E



22W

Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 156 Comments: 36055
HOLY CRAP!!!! This is happening right now live.
Deputies chase boy floating in balloon aircraft
6-year-old takes off in family's experimental helium-balloon craft
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/33330516/ns/us_news-life/

video
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21134540/vp/22887392#22887392
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
does anyone remember this.

10th Anniversary of Hurricane Irene
October 15, 1999

Hit SE Florida totally unexpected.
Was never suppose to have become a Hurricane.
We had no watches or warnings and everyone had
to drive home from Work in rush hour traffic
with hurricane winds blowing (just cat 1) trees blowing over,
power going out..and severe flooding..
my neighborhood was flooded for 3 days.
The experts did not call this one at all.
We had no WU Blogs back then but I did come here for radar.. watch this storm on radar
on my desk computer at work ...
and we never issued warnings until it was on top of us.
The center 'eye' went over my home.
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159. IKE
Quoting NRAamy:
IKE...did you see the Snuggies for dogs?


No....not surprised though.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858


Seismic Monitor

AOI

AOI

Humour in Comments
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26493
Quoting rocketboy105:
High "Carnot Efficiency" is one indicator of the trend towards higher intensity in Cyclonic Storms. The French Thermodynamicist Carnot, was honored for his discovery that all "heat engines" operate between two temperatures; the heat source,...(for Hurricanes the ocean),...and the heat sink,...(again for Hurricanes its the Stratosphere). His equation is simply,... Eff. = 1-(TL/TH). Your actual efficiency can never exceed "the Carnot Efficiency". What is not being discussed much in the Climate Change debate,...is the cooling of the Stratosphere coupled with Warming oceans, that providing, not just one, but two, CO2 induced changes that is fueling Hurricanes to higher intensities. The CO2 models predicted the stratosphere would cool,...as CO2 was holding in more heat, (reducing leakage to space),...like adding insulation to one's attic,...the living space would warm,..the attic space would cool. NASA noticed it from a) Direct measurements of the Stratosphere,...-.6 deg. C. , b) confirmed when NASA Engineers noticed satellites were staying up longer than planed. Cooler Stratosphere,..caused it to actually "pull in" slightly,..reducing the already tiny drag on the satellites. By the numbers,.....prior to significant CO2 effects,..the Carnot Eff. was 1- (203/303) = 33.0033%. When the increase in ocean temp of .5 deg C,..and the cooling of the Stratosphere of -.6 deg C, is included you get
Eff. = 1-(202.4/303.5) = 33.3114%,...a seemingly small change,...but its enough to matter. The Carnot Eff. equation shows up in the equations to predict the max theoretical intensity of cyclonic storms in several places. What I'm surprised at,..is that even though the cooling of the Stratosphere has been measured,..and validated,..there has been little if no discussion of this fact,...in the debate on Climate Change and weather. In case anyone is interested,..Dr. Kerry Emanuel has a paper out on the cooling of the Stratosphere impacting Hurricane intensity. He's one of the world’s foremost experts in Hurricanes, and Climate Change. Just google the subject.


I was wondering when someone would mention Carnot...The numbers are used in a great many places, really...it's part of the efficiency equation for Peltier chips

Nice to meet you, rocketboy!
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The low pressure moving off Cape Hatteras looks like a sub-tropical storm, imo.

Nice little spin there...


Visible satellite loop
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Member Since: September 14, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 3963
High "Carnot Efficiency" is one indicator of the trend towards higher intensity in Cyclonic Storms. The French Thermodynamicist Carnot, was honored for his discovery that all "heat engines" operate between two temperatures; the heat source,...(for Hurricanes the ocean),...and the heat sink,...(again for Hurricanes its the Stratosphere). His equation is simply,... Eff. = 1-(TL/TH). Your actual efficiency can never exceed "the Carnot Efficiency". What is not being discussed much in the Climate Change debate,...is the cooling of the Stratosphere coupled with Warming oceans, that providing, not just one, but two, CO2 induced changes that is fueling Hurricanes to higher intensities. The CO2 models predicted the stratosphere would cool,...as CO2 was holding in more heat, (reducing leakage to space),...like adding insulation to one's attic,...the living space would warm,..the attic space would cool. NASA noticed it from a) Direct measurements of the Stratosphere,...-.6 deg. C. , b) confirmed when NASA Engineers noticed satellites were staying up longer than planed. Cooler Stratosphere,..caused it to actually "pull in" slightly,..reducing the already tiny drag on the satellites. By the numbers,.....prior to significant CO2 effects,..the Carnot Eff. was 1- (203/303) = 33.0033%. When the increase in ocean temp of .5 deg C,..and the cooling of the Stratosphere of -.6 deg C, is included you get
Eff. = 1-(202.4/303.5) = 33.3114%,...a seemingly small change,...but its enough to matter. The Carnot Eff. equation shows up in the equations to predict the max theoretical intensity of cyclonic storms in several places. What I'm surprised at,..is that even though the cooling of the Stratosphere has been measured,..and validated,..there has been little if no discussion of this fact,...in the debate on Climate Change and weather. In case anyone is interested,..Dr. Kerry Emanuel has a paper out on the cooling of the Stratosphere impacting Hurricane intensity. He's one of the world’s foremost experts in Hurricanes, and Climate Change. Just google the subject.
Quoting JRRP:
i�m out
Link
oh wait
897 mb
i know that HWRF always exaggerates


I think it's onto something very realistic. What data is available to suggest otherwise? ABundant warm moisture, very warm SST's, anticyclone, current divergence...

I see nothing over the next three days that will limit Rick from intensifying quickly
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Ok, I have to put in my non scientific opinion on the global warming and the polar bears.Over the course of history species have become extinct. Greatfully the dinosaurs (I never could spell that word) are among those that perished. If I learned correctly the Earth was a complete tropical climate at the time of the dinos. Somewhere along the line an ice age crept in. Now we seem to heading toward a tropical climate again. I give up. I guess we as Humans better learn how to evolve or we could join the list of the extinct.
Would whomever is doing the rain dance in Georgia please stop.
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IKE...did you see the Snuggies for dogs?
Member Since: January 24, 2007 Posts: 316 Comments: 31944
149. xcool


!!!!!
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148. xcool
atmoaggie :) cooling
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Quoting xcool:
oh man oh man sunday night up 30 here in Slidell, Louisiana .I'm not ready.

Don't be surprised if it is really about 44. Very common for the forecast after a cold front passage to overshoot the lows based on an expected depression in the dewpoints that doesn't actually quite pan out.

Heck, they have already revised it upwards some:
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461
Please join us!!! Dr. Masters is planning to be on the call...

We have scheduled the preliminary planning conference call for our 2nd Annual Portlight/WU Honor Walk for Thursdsay, October 15 @ 7:30PM EST

The call in number is:(800)929-7487

Participant code: 75434753#

The call will last no more than one hour.

Please, please join us...
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10458
145. xcool
IKE yeah i need 5 snuggie
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144. IKE
Quoting xcool:
oh man oh man sunday night up 30 here in Slidell, Louisiana .I'm not ready.


You need a snuggie!!!
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
143. JRRP
im out
Link
oh wait
897 mb
i know that HWRF always exaggerates
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Could be a TD in the Eastern Pacific by 5PM.
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141. xcool
oh man oh man sunday night up 30 here in Slidell, Louisiana .I'm not ready.
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Quoting atmoaggie:

I can agree with that...and the part about you being crazy...


Crazy is only skin-deep. just freaking nuts cuts right to the brain!

I see now the NHC upgraded the chances to 50% and say development is likely as soon as tonight. That's a sharp wave axis on that recent QuikSCAT pass.

Jimena II???



Oh, hell yea this thing's coming...wonder if the EMCWF and GFS will hold on to their Baja/Mazatlan landfall forecast.
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139. xcool
good lucky matt :)
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I'm no Al Gore hater, but doesn't he drive an SUV and have a really high electric bill for his mansion. What's the saying about take care of the plank in your own eye before you worry about the sliver in someone else's eye or something like that?

yep...somethin' like that....
Member Since: January 24, 2007 Posts: 316 Comments: 31944
Dr M's plot with the SST anomaly is a little misleading. Water 1.5C over "normal" SST doesn't dictate favorable conditions, raw values do.

Much of the coastal northern GoM waters only marginally favorable (water depth related TCHP questions aside). The reds in this plot are where it really is quite favorable.

Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461

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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.