Outlook for the remainder of hurricane season

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:18 PM GMT on October 15, 2009

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Atlantic tropical cyclone activity finishes its peak phase in mid-October, and takes a major downturn after about October 20 (Figure 1). Since the current active hurricane period began in 1995, the last half of October through the end of hurricane season has given birth to an average of 1.7 named storms, 0.8 hurricanes, and 0.3 intense hurricanes. These numbers are nearly double the long-term climatological averages for the past 100 years. So far this year, only one tropical storm has hit the U.S.--Tropical Storm Claudette. If no more tropical storms make landfall in the U.S., it will be the first year since 1993 to see only one tropical storm hitting the U.S.


Figure 1. Atlantic hurricane season activity over the past 100 years.

Late October and November storms tend to form from tropical waves that come off the coast of Africa, or from the remains of old fronts that push off the coast of the U.S. As we can see from the track plot of all last half of October storms (Figure 2), there is a lot of activity during the period, but relatively few storms form out near the African coast. The water temperatures off the coast of Africa are starting to cool and be marginal for hurricane formation, and the African Monsoon is waning, leading to fewer African waves coming off the coast. Wind shear is also starting to increase, as part of its normal fall cycle.

Climatology of late-season major hurricanes
Let's examine the possibilities of getting a late-season major hurricane, since those are the storms we care most about. Since 1960, there have been twelve hurricanes that have existed as major Category 3 or higher storms after October 15. Eight of these have occurred since 1995: Omar of 2008 (Cat 4, Lesser Antilles), Paloma of 2008 (Cat 4, Cayman Islands and Cuba), Wilma of 2005 (Cat 4, Mexico; Cat 3, SW Florida), Beta of 2005 (Cat 3, Nicaragua), Michelle of 2001 (Cat 4, Cuba), Lenny of 1999 (Cat 4, northern Lesser Antilles), Mitch of 1998 (Cat 5, Honduras), and Lili of 1996 (Bahamas, Category 3). The other four were Joan of 1988 (Cat 4, Nicaragua), Kate of 1985 (Cat 3, Gulf of Mexico), Ella of 1962 (Cat 3, west of Bermuda), and Hattie of 1961 (Cat 4, Belize). Wilma of 2005 was the only major hurricane since 1960 to hit the U.S. after October 15. The highest risk region for late season major hurricanes is the Western Caribbean, along the coasts of Nicaragua, Honduras, Belize, Mexico, and Cuba. So, we can say with high confidence that most of the U.S. coast can relax. Only the west coast of Florida, Florida Keys, and South Florida need to still be concerned about the possibility of a major hurricane. The Lesser Antilles Islands, Puerto Rico, and Hispaniola are also at low risk for a major hurricane the remainder of the season.



Figure 2. Tracks of all tropical storms and hurricanes since 1851 that formed October 16-31.

Sea Surface Temperatures
Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) are 0.5 - 1.5°C above average over the Western Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico (Figure 3), the primary formation areas for late October storms. So, there is still plenty of fuel for a major hurricane to form. Note also the tongue of warmer than average SSTs extending out into the Pacific Ocean from the coast of South America, the signature of weak El Niño conditions.


Figure 3. Sea Surface Temperature (SST) departure from average for October 15. Image credit: NOAA.

Wind shear
Wind shear is usually defined as the difference in wind between 200 mb (roughly 40,000 foot altitude) and 850 mb (roughly 5,000 foot altitude). In most circumstances, wind shear above 20 knots will act to inhibit tropical storm formation by tearing a storm apart. Wind shear 10 knots and lower is very conducive for tropical storm formation.

The jet stream in mid-October is more active and extends further south, which brings higher levels of wind shear to the Atlantic. The more active jet stream also acts to recurve storms more quickly. Any system penetrating north of about 20 degrees north latitude we can expect to recurve quickly to the north and northeast this late in the season. The most recent 16-day forecast from the GFS model predicts a period of high wind shear over the tropical Atlantic over the next ten days (Figure 4). Beginning on October 25, wind shear is expected to fall again over the Western Caribbean, and we need to be alert for tropical storm formation then. Indeed, the latest run of the GFS model is predicting a large area of surface low pressure will form in the Western Caribbean during the last week of October, an indication that hurricane season may not be over yet.

El Niño
El Niño conditions, which typically bring higher wind shear to the Atlantic and interfere with hurricane formation, continue to be present in the tropical Eastern Pacific. It is probably the case that some of this year's inactivity can be attributed to El Niño. However, as I discussed in a post earlier this year, El Niño events that warm the central Pacific more than the eastern Pacific (called "modiki" El Niño events), tend to bring less wind shear to the Atlantic. In recent weeks, El Niño conditions in the Eastern Pacific have trended more towards a "modiki" type event, with a large amount of warming in the Central Pacific. This shift in the El Niño may bring lower wind shear to the Atlantic over the final month of hurricane season.


Figure 4. Wind shear forecast for October 23, 2009, as produced by the 00 UTC run on October 14, 2009 made by the GFS model. Wind shear below about 8 m/s (roughly 15 knots, red colors) is typically needed to allow tropical storm formation. There aren't too many red-colored areas over the prime breeding grounds for tropical storms in the Atlantic over the next ten days in this forecast.

Summary
Given how quiet the tropics are at present, and the forecast of a high wind shear regime lasting until October 25, I doubt any tropical storms will form over the next ten days. If we do get something, it would probably be in the middle Atlantic between Bermuda and the Azores, far from land. However, I am still wary of the possibility of a hurricane in the Caribbean the last week of October or in November this year. There is evidence that the Atlantic hurricane season is starting earlier and ending later in recent decades. Dr. Jim Kossin of the University of Wisconsin published a paper in 2008 titled, "Is the North Atlantic hurricane season getting longer?" He concluded that yes, there is a "apparent tendency toward more common early- and late-season storms that correlates with warming Sea Surface Temperature but the uncertainty in these relationships is high". We had two major hurricanes in the Caribbean after October 15 last year, and I give a 60% chance that we'll get a named storm in the Caribbean before hurricane season ends on November 30. Hurricane season is not over--it's just in hibernation.

Happy Valley to become Yucky Valley
Winter is fast approaching, and the season's first major snowstorm for the U.S. East Coast is coming this weekend, according to the wunderblog of Wunderground's Dr. Rob Carver. Conditions will be particularly nasty on Saturday in Happy Valley, where Penn State is situated. The surrounding hills may get 4 - 12 inches of snow, and rain mixed with snow with 36°F temperatures are expected for Saturday's Penn State - Minnesota game. Ugh, winter! I'll have a forecast for the coming winter in a post sometime in the next week.

The Senate has not yet voted on the proposal to cut NOAA funding. I will post a report when the vote occurs.

Jeff Masters

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387. xcool
i hate cold air
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15672
The GFS seems be forecasting a sharp upper level trough to bring some much needed cold air into FL. Albeit I hate the cold, this cold air mass will be welcomed, for my AC has been broken for over a week now. lol
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"I...I don't know"
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
...all my science teachers said "Please just sit there and keep your mouth shut....and I'll give you a 'C'..."
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10490
CAPE aplenty ahead of the front as per 7 CDT radoisonde at Slidell. A little convergence and boom. Thankfully no shear (a.k.a. no nadoes)


(Click for full size)
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461
Quoting atmoaggie:
Who is Lord Monckton and does he have any credibility?

Could it be that our so called tropical weather forecasts are slanted in favor of AGW either through deliberate action or ignorance. And couldn't that slant actually cause harm by leading people to act in ways that actually expose them to more harm than otherwise?

For example, if , after several years of doom saying by forecasters, the regular person begins to doubt the forecasters and slowly decides to ignore the forecasters predictions and one day gets caught, unprepared, when a forecast does come true. ie The boy who cried wolf.

How about following the old detectives admonition...Just the facts, ma'am.


I don't know what to think about that guy. He makes good points at times, but I don't really know much about his background.
Much of what he is saying there, if accurate, is spot on...things like politicians inserting language into science, etc. (if accurate...)

I hear what you are saying about the forecasts. If we have another couple of years like this year, along with more reports of AGW-induced changes in TCs, I can see how all credibility will be lost and more regular folks will question the motives of those that they really should be depending on to give them the unfettered life-and-death truth.
And I know this hurricane season hasn't been nothing at all, but your average person living in Houston, NOLA, Mobile, Miami, the Pressolinas, etc. thinks so.


atmo - I have read your posts for a great while and have come to trust you. Why? Because you only talk about science, no politics. I trust NO ONE any longer that purports any politics, one way or the other. In my humble opinion they do not represent the american people and I appreciate your objectivity. I have only seen your input to this blog as being highly beneficial(even if it is above my scientific knowledge). Thanks!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting atmoaggie:
Who is Lord Monckton and does he have any credibility?

Could it be that our so called tropical weather forecasts are slanted in favor of AGW either through deliberate action or ignorance. And couldn't that slant actually cause harm by leading people to act in ways that actually expose them to more harm than otherwise?

For example, if , after several years of doom saying by forecasters, the regular person begins to doubt the forecasters and slowly decides to ignore the forecasters predictions and one day gets caught, unprepared, when a forecast does come true. ie The boy who cried wolf.

How about following the old detectives admonition...Just the facts, ma'am.

-------
I don't know what to think about that guy. He makes good points at times, but I don't really know much about his background.

I hear what you are saying about the forecasts. If we have another couple of years like this year, along with more reports of AGW-induced changes in TCs, I can see how all credibility will be lost and more regular folks will question the motives of those that they really should be depending on to give them the unfettered life-and-death truth.
And I know this hurricane season hasn't been nothing at all, but your average person living in Houston, NOLA, Mobile, Miami, the Pressolinas, etc. thinks so.


All of my science teachers, high school and college, taught me that I had to leave my preconceived notions at the door when it came to science and research. To do otherwise was 'unscientific'.

They all made it clear that any interpretations that I might make had to come from a neutral position or else my conclusions would be essentially null and void. If I remember correctly, the words they most often used was 'rationalization'.

It looks pretty clear...AGW is that 'preconceived notion' when it comes to weather observation.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Who is Lord Monckton and does he have any credibility?

Could it be that our so called tropical weather forecasts are slanted in favor of AGW either through deliberate action or ignorance. And couldn't that slant actually cause harm by leading people to act in ways that actually expose them to more harm than otherwise?

For example, if , after several years of doom saying by forecasters, the regular person begins to doubt the forecasters and slowly decides to ignore the forecasters predictions and one day gets caught, unprepared, when a forecast does come true. ie The boy who cried wolf.

How about following the old detectives admonition...Just the facts, ma'am.


I don't know what to think about that guy. He makes good points at times, but I don't really know much about his background.
Much of what he is saying there, if accurate, is spot on...things like politicians inserting language into science, etc. (if accurate...)

I hear what you are saying about the forecasts. If we have another couple of years like this year, along with more reports of AGW-induced changes in TCs, I can see how all credibility will be lost and more regular folks will question the motives of those that they really should be depending on to give them the unfettered life-and-death truth.
And I know this hurricane season hasn't been nothing at all, but your average person living in Houston, NOLA, Mobile, Miami, the Pressolinas, etc. thinks so.
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461



868
WUUS54 KLIX 160134
SVRLIX
LAC117-MSC109-160230-
/O.NEW.KLIX.SV.W.0179.091016T0134Z-091016T0230Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
834 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
EASTERN WASHINGTON PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF BOGALUSA...
WESTERN PEARL RIVER COUNTY IN SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...

* UNTIL 930 PM CDT

* AT 834 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
VARNADO...OR 7 MILES NORTHWEST OF BOGALUSA...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST
AT 25 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
CROSSROADS

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN ADDITION TO HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...FREQUENT TO CONTINUOUS
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORS
IMMEDIATELY! LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES NUMBER ONE KILLERS.
REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE
STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128344
Boy, nature sure has a vendetta against Luzon Island..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting atmoaggie:
Man made NOx does not generally survive long enough to be transported to the startosphere. It is susceptible to photolysis even at the surface. Keep reading.

I am an atmospheric scientist that focused on atmospheric chem. I don't care one whit about your notions of my credibility. One day, hopefully, you'll discover that I have posted only thruths.


What do you have to say regarding the following...?
----------
Conclusion of Lord Monckton's address to the Cambridge Union Society
8 October 2007

AL GORE says, 'I believe this is a moral issue.' So it is. To 'announce disasters' or 'scary scenarios' or 'over-represent factual presentations' in place of adherence to the scientific truth - that is a moral issue.

To let politicians insert data into official scientific documents; to alter those documents so as to contradict scientific findings; to manipulate decimal points so as to engender false headlines by exaggerating tenfold - those are moral issues.

To exaggerate by 2000% not only the atmospheric lifetime of a trace gas but also the effect of that gas on temperature; to reduce the magnitude of its predicted influence on temperature without reducing the predicted temperature itself - those are moral issues.

To claim scientific unanimity where none exists; to assert that catastrophe is likely when most scientists do not; to exalt theoretical computer models over real-world observations; to misstate the conclusions of scientific papers or the meaning of observed data; to overstate the likely future course of climatic phenomena by several orders of magnitude - those are moral issues.

To reverse the sequence of events in the early climate; to repeat that reversal in a propaganda book intended to infect the minds of children; to persist in false denial that past temperatures exceeded today's; to state that climate events that have not occurred have occurred; to ascribe these non-events as well as specific extreme-weather events unjustifiably to humankind - those are moral issues.

To propose solutions to the non-problem of climate change that would cost many times more than the problem itself, if there were one; to advocate measures to mitigate fancifully-imagined future climatic changes when adaptation would cost far less and achieve far more; to ignore the real problems of resource depletion, energy security, bad Third World government and fatal diseases that kill millions - those are moral issues.

To advance policies congenial to the narrow, short-term political or financial vested interest of some mere corporation or faction at the expense of the wider, long-term general interest of us all - those are moral issues.

Above all, to inflict upon the nations of the world a policy of ever-grimmer energy starvation calculated not merely to inconvenience the prosperous but to condemn the very poorest to remain imprisoned in poverty forever, and to die in their tens of millions for want of the light and heat and power which we have long been fortunate enough to take for granted - that is a moral issue.

Sir, this House is the House of youth. Here high ideals are shaped and sharpened. Here of all places, it is surely understood that in each of us, however far apart in mere distance or origin or wealth or achievement, there is the image and likeness of our Creator; that by this intimate communion with our Maker each of us, however poor, is of unique and precious value; that therefore there is only one race, the human race; that the suffering children of Africa, of Asia and of south America, imploring us with their hopeless, hopeful eyes, are our people. They cannot look to their own. They look to us. We must get the science right or we shall get the policy wrong. We have failed them and failed them before.

We must not fail them again!
----------

Who is Lord Monckton and does he have any credibility?

Could it be that our so called tropical weather forecasts are slanted in favor of AGW either through deliberate action or ignorance. And couldn't that slant actually cause harm by leading people to act in ways that actually expose them to more harm than otherwise?

For example, if , after several years of doom saying by forecasters, the regular person begins to doubt the forecasters and slowly decides to ignore the forecasters predictions and one day gets caught, unprepared, when a forecast does come true. ie The boy who cried wolf.

How about following the old detectives admonition...Just the facts, ma'am.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
376. xcool
we next too have a name storm !!!
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15672
WOW you guys are mix up and i mean mixs up



1st off i nevere said any thing about the W PAC


2nd off i no Typhoon Lupid is in the W PAC not the E PAC



and 3dr off i was talking about the E PAC the hole time i never said any thing at all about the W PAC
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
lol i ment E PAC and yes there is a new name storm in the E PAC i did not say any thing about the W PAC


00
WHXX01 KMIA 160036
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0036 UTC FRI OCT 16 2009

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE TWENTY (EP202009) 20091016 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
091016 0000 091016 1200 091017 0000 091017 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 12.3N 97.3W 12.9N 98.8W 13.1N 100.6W 13.2N 103.1W
BAMD 12.3N 97.3W 12.9N 98.7W 13.4N 100.2W 14.1N 101.9W
BAMM 12.3N 97.3W 12.9N 98.8W 13.3N 100.5W 13.8N 102.6W
LBAR 12.3N 97.3W 12.8N 98.9W 13.3N 100.7W 14.0N 102.5W
SHIP 40KTS 54KTS 70KTS 81KTS
DSHP 40KTS 54KTS 70KTS 81KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
091018 0000 091019 0000 091020 0000 091021 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 13.6N 106.1W 13.9N 111.5W 14.2N 113.5W 17.3N 112.3W
BAMD 14.9N 103.9W 17.1N 108.4W 19.6N 112.2W 21.2N 114.8W
BAMM 14.4N 105.1W 15.8N 110.5W 16.2N 114.5W 16.2N 113.7W
LBAR 14.9N 104.2W 16.4N 107.5W 18.2N 110.0W 21.2N 111.3W
SHIP 92KTS 106KTS 110KTS 104KTS
DSHP 92KTS 106KTS 110KTS 104KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.3N LONCUR = 97.3W DIRCUR = 300DEG SPDCUR = 8KT
LATM12 = 11.0N LONM12 = 95.5W DIRM12 = 308DEG SPDM12 = 13KT
LATM24 = 9.0N LONM24 = 93.8W
WNDCUR = 40KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1002MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 45NM RD34SE = 35NM RD34SW = 35NM RD34NW = 45NM
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
rocketboy105:

A couple of thoughts...given that SKYLAB was brought down by a anomalously warming outer atmosphere directly attributed to an increase in solar activity and then you say cooling/contracting of late of that same upper atmosphere, I have to ask how that is related to any chemistry and/or infrared conclusions. We are and have been in a solar minimum for a while...

Additionally, a few sporadic obs scattered at odd intervals of years does not an Earth science dataset make in a dynamic system. But that is exactly what making note of drag on a parked satellite is.

"Unfortunately NOx emissions from aircraft which venture into the stratosphere (such as concorde) catalyse the destruction of ozone there."
Yeah, not like free chlorine...and the Concorde ceased flying a couple of years ago. No other airplane flies that high, but even if others do emit high enough, the effect is minimal compared to CFCs. There is a reason the holes have been getting smaller and it isn't because general aviation quit emitting NOx.

Anthropogenic emitted NOx is primarily a tropospheric O3 generator. And the smog? NOx is a visible gas...brown haze.

Quoting rocketboy105:
One thing is for sure, skyepony has one helluva lot more patience with you than I do. You just dig yourself into a deeper hole with each entry. Amazing. When someone presents me with strong evidence of something,...something I have not heard before,...I overcome my initial anx,..take a breath and say to the person,..."Wow,..I had heard that before,...interesting,...thanks,.." something like that.

But you???

When I said NASA has this down pat. I was referring to their long practiced ability to "park" a satellite in orbit, right where they want it. Like any dedicated Contrarian who's in over his head,....you use subtrefuge and taking stuff out of context,..(you're a "STUFF-MAKER-UPPER") you duck,..dodge,..bob and weave,..to conceal you don't know what you're talking about. Why no answer on,....

The reduced Satellite drag caused by CO2 induced cooling,.and Stratospheric contraction?? Why do you keep ducking the issue,...why not just admit you don't know much about satellite drag and have no factual basis to refute something NASA has confirmed. I asked you a basic question,.."if its not drag reduction,..that explains the satellites staying up longer,...then what is it??? Admit your telling NASA it doesn't know how to trouble shoot that problem.

Your boast about NOX,. (being an "expert")...I beg to differ. I found a ton of stuff that says,...NOX destroys OZONE. The Scientist being interviewed on the subject. What about that,..since as you claim,..."its your area of expertise".

Look,...nobody's knowledge base is complete,..we're all trying to learn here. I've admitted when I was wrong, mis-spoke, or learned something new more times than I can count. Why can't you do that?

Take a deep breathe,..relax,..admit you don't know enough to even answer the questions I've asked you,...no you try this "escape",..."I'm above this junk?" What's up with that?

What's the deal here,...are you so dedicated to contrarianism,...that it gives you severe INDIGESTION to admit,.."THE SCIENTIST and the BLUE TEAM HAS CLIMATE CHANGE RIGHT"?

If anyone else wants to (with facts,..not suppositions),...call what I've written here into question about Stratosperic Cooling,...and Satellites staying up longer as a result,...I'll be happy to listen,..concede if you can show me,..that NASA,..and KERRY EMANUEL are wrong on those two points. Just bring some facts to the table,....OK???

On the NOX destroying OZONE,...I'm no expert,.....Anyone else out there who knows about NOX and OZONE destruction want to settle that one? I'm happy to learn.




A tip. If you want to talk science, the words "you", "your", "you're", "I" have no place. I am proud of myself for not ripping into to you.
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461
Quoting AussieStorm:

Typhoon Lupid is in WPAC not EPAC


Im sure Taz meant the W=pac..hes been busy after that Cali Storm

Typhoon Lupid


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128344
Our Miami NWS is forecasting jackets this weekend. And it looks like the end of Free Carwash Season.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Patrap:




Typhoon Lupid is in WPAC not EPAC
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
369. xcool
JLPR. yeah very strong MJO!
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15672
368. JLPR
Quoting xcool:




oh my God upward pulse! hadn't seen that in a while XD
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting presslord:
well...the call went remarkably well...especially in light of the fact that the moderator has been giving out the wrong phone # all week...Thanks everybody!!!! Y'all rock!!!

Thanks press I was to shy to talk mostly but I do feel y'all have best interest at heart...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
366. xcool
WUUS54 KLIX 152305
SVRLIX
MSC109-160000-
/O.NEW.KLIX.SV.W.0178.091015T2305Z-091016T0000Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
605 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN PEARL RIVER COUNTY IN SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF POPLARVILLE...

* UNTIL 700 PM CDT

* AT 604 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 9 MILES
NORTHWEST OF POPLARVILLE...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT POPLARVILLE BY 625 PM.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...PREPARE
IMMEDIATELY FOR DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...AND DEADLY CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...
PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING BUT AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

&&

LAT...LON 3094 8933 3086 8932 3065 8935 3091 8975
3092 8976 3092 8974 3093 8975 3101 8964
3101 8956 3103 8955
TIME...MOT...LOC 2304Z 295DEG 22KT 3096 8961

$$


Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15672
err .. in response to the "discussion" (Mostly seemed like to me that Rocketdude was doing most of the "discussing" while atmo was doing the "ignoring" but who's counting..) I'll say this, don't doubt atmo's credibility as the basis of your argument. It would be just as simple as to doubt yours and where does that get us? I'm not saying who's right nor wrong, but when you scream (caps) every other word.. and wave around the "blue team" flag, you're not likely to get a nice, scientific response. By bringing politics into it you are blatantly opening the door to very unscientific ideas from both sides of the aisle. Politicians lie? never right? And isn't the new thing supposed to be pretending your bipartisan anyway? If you're gunna bring up party line ideas atleast try and pretend your listening to input. =)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
364. xcool
bad weather head this way ooh noo
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15672



Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128344
NEXRAD Radar
New Orleans, Echo Tops Range 124 NMI

tops to 57,000 ft


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128344
new name storm in the E PAC


000
WHXX01 KMIA 160036
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0036 UTC FRI OCT 16 2009

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE TWENTY (EP202009) 20091016 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
091016 0000 091016 1200 091017 0000 091017 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 12.3N 97.3W 12.9N 98.8W 13.1N 100.6W 13.2N 103.1W
BAMD 12.3N 97.3W 12.9N 98.7W 13.4N 100.2W 14.1N 101.9W
BAMM 12.3N 97.3W 12.9N 98.8W 13.3N 100.5W 13.8N 102.6W
LBAR 12.3N 97.3W 12.8N 98.9W 13.3N 100.7W 14.0N 102.5W
SHIP 40KTS 54KTS 70KTS 81KTS
DSHP 40KTS 54KTS 70KTS 81KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
091018 0000 091019 0000 091020 0000 091021 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 13.6N 106.1W 13.9N 111.5W 14.2N 113.5W 17.3N 112.3W
BAMD 14.9N 103.9W 17.1N 108.4W 19.6N 112.2W 21.2N 114.8W
BAMM 14.4N 105.1W 15.8N 110.5W 16.2N 114.5W 16.2N 113.7W
LBAR 14.9N 104.2W 16.4N 107.5W 18.2N 110.0W 21.2N 111.3W
SHIP 92KTS 106KTS 110KTS 104KTS
DSHP 92KTS 106KTS 110KTS 104KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.3N LONCUR = 97.3W DIRCUR = 300DEG SPDCUR = 8KT
LATM12 = 11.0N LONM12 = 95.5W DIRM12 = 308DEG SPDM12 = 13KT
LATM24 = 9.0N LONM24 = 93.8W
WNDCUR = 40KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1002MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 45NM RD34SE = 35NM RD34SW = 35NM RD34NW = 45NM



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Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128344
EP20 is now TS Rick

EP 20 2009101600 BEST 0 123N 973W 40 1002 TS
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Fall is behind the Strong Thunderstorms and Cold Front as they continue to slide Southeast tonight..






Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128344
Thank You for the update Dr. Masters
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Quoting WaterWitch11:


Hi Patrap,
Were you able to make it to the town hall meeting with obama? i saw a few minutes of the live feed on cnn.


Unfortunately we didnt get selected via e-mail for the meeting,but watched Live on Local NBC station. The President took Question's for a full 45 minutes and it was a good ,meaningful exchange from numerous folks.


President Barack Obama addresses the crowd upon his arrival at the University of New Orleans
Added by Michael DeMocker on October 15, 2009 at 4:23 PM

MICHAEL DeMOCKER/THE TIMES-PICAYUNE President Barack Obama addresses the crowd upon his arrival at the University


The Presidential departure
Added by Kathy Anderson on October 15, 2009 at 3:49 PM

KATHY ANDERSON / THE TIMES-PICAYUNE Barack Obama took off from Louis Armstrong International Airport this afternoon, completing a whirlwind tour of a New Orleans school and conducting a town hall meeting in his first visit here since becoming president nine months ago. Air Force One left Armstrong for California at 3:11 p.m., some three hours and 47 minutes after it arrived with the president this morning. Obama plans to address a Democratic National Committee fundraiser tonight in San Francisco.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128344
NOAA Forecast a Wetter and Colder EL Nino induced winter for the Se U.S.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128344
This exerpt is from Dr. Ben Matthews.

Why is Nox bad? Its complicated: creates OZONE on the ground,...(health hazzard),...destroys OZONE in the Stratosphere.

Very interesting.

Fuel use is not the end of the story. Aircraft also emit NOx gases, a product of combustion of atmospheric nitrogen and oxygen in theB very hot jet engines. NOx is not in itself a greenhouse gas but it catalyses the production of ozone (O3), which is a powerful greenhouse gas. Nearer the ground, ozone also leads to the formation of photochemical smog which is harmful to human health.
In the stratosphere, on the other hand, ozone is valuable as it blocks harmful ultra-violet radiation. Unfortunately NOx emissions from aircraft which venture into the stratosphere (such as concorde) catalyse the destruction of ozone there. Confused? -Yes, ozone chemistry is complicated, but in a nutshell, NOx emissions are bad news -producing ozone where we don't want it, and destroying it where we do..
To make matters even more complicated, NOx emissions also catalyse the destruction of methane (CH4), another greenhouse gas, although this cooling effect is much smaller than the ozone warming effect (see IPCC graphic below). Aircraft emissions of sulphate aerosols also have a slight cooling effect, but also contribute to acid rain.
It's not easy to quantify the exact greenhouse warming due to water vapour and NOx emissions from aircraft, but a scientific consensus is now emerging, that the total warming effect of all emissions (CO2, H2O and NOx) put together, is in the range 2-5 times greater than that of CO2 alone. This is confirmed by analysis in the "Special Report on Aviation" recently published by the "Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change" (IPCC) in April 1999.
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353. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
190
TCNA21 RJTD 160000
CCAA 16000 47644 LUPIT(0920) 24130 11377 13244 230// 92914=

0:00 AM UTC October 16 2009

TS Lupit (0920) [System #24]
13.0N 137.7E
Dvorak Intensity: T3.0
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352. xcool


Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15672
well...the call went remarkably well...especially in light of the fact that the moderator has been giving out the wrong phone # all week...Thanks everybody!!!! Y'all rock!!!
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10490
Educational and infomative update for a newbie like me. Thank you! Read your forecasts and updates every day!
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Quoting Patrap:
The 5th Dimension


Hi Patrap,
Were you able to make it to the town hall meeting with obama? i saw a few minutes of the live feed on cnn.
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One thing is for sure, skyepony has one helluva lot more patience with you than I do. You just dig yourself into a deeper hole with each entry. Amazing. When someone presents me with strong evidence of something,...something I have not heard before,...I overcome my initial anx,..take a breath and say to the person,..."Wow,..I had heard that before,...interesting,...thanks,.." something like that.

But you???

When I said NASA has this down pat. I was referring to their long practiced ability to "park" a satellite in orbit, right where they want it. Like any dedicated Contrarian who's in over his head,....you use subtrefuge and taking stuff out of context,..(you're a "STUFF-MAKER-UPPER") you duck,..dodge,..bob and weave,..to conceal you don't know what you're talking about. Why no answer on,....

The reduced Satellite drag caused by CO2 induced cooling,.and Stratospheric contraction?? Why do you keep ducking the issue,...why not just admit you don't know much about satellite drag and have no factual basis to refute something NASA has confirmed. I asked you a basic question,.."if its not drag reduction,..that explains the satellites staying up longer,...then what is it??? Admit your telling NASA it doesn't know how to trouble shoot that problem.

Your boast about NOX,. (being an "expert")...I beg to differ. I found a ton of stuff that says,...NOX destroys OZONE. The Scientist being interviewed on the subject. What about that,..since as you claim,..."its your area of expertise".

Look,...nobody's knowledge base is complete,..we're all trying to learn here. I've admitted when I was wrong, mis-spoke, or learned something new more times than I can count. Why can't you do that?

Take a deep breathe,..relax,..admit you don't know enough to even answer the questions I've asked you,...no you try this "escape",..."I'm above this junk?" What's up with that?

What's the deal here,...are you so dedicated to contrarianism,...that it gives you severe INDIGESTION to admit,.."THE SCIENTIST and the BLUE TEAM HAS CLIMATE CHANGE RIGHT"?

If anyone else wants to (with facts,..not suppositions),...call what I've written here into question about Stratosperic Cooling,...and Satellites staying up longer as a result,...I'll be happy to listen,..concede if you can show me,..that NASA,..and KERRY EMANUEL are wrong on those two points. Just bring some facts to the table,....OK???

On the NOX destroying OZONE,...I'm no expert,.....Anyone else out there who knows about NOX and OZONE destruction want to settle that one? I'm happy to learn.


Quoting atmoaggie:
Man made NOx does not generally survive long enough to be transported to the startosphere. It is susceptible to photolysis even at the surface. Keep reading.

I am an atmospheric scientist that focused on atmospheric chem. I don't care one whit about your notions of my credibility. One day, hopefully, you'll discover that I have posted only thruths.
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Skyepony,

Reading the discussion on Emanuel, he has implied that Atlantic cyclone frequency is increasing due to GW. Slide 38 of this presentation.

Link
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Quoting Ameister12:
Blog is awfully quite. I bet once 20L becomes a tropical storm or hurricane it might heat up.
Atlantics storms are the one that heat up this sight,
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Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
I think 6 yr. old Falcon Heene

will be...

um um...

GROUNDED!
At least he had his 15 minutes of fame at 6 years old.
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342. Skyepony (Mod)
20E


atmo~ from what I understand it goes both ways, a feedback loop, cold begets a bigger hole faster & the hole causes cooler temps (up high). We've really gone on a tangent, from Emanuel to ozone..
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800 920 -7487
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10490
Quoting 954FtLCane:

I keep on getting an advertisement and the hung up... sorry I tried about 5 times



800 920 -7487
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10490
Quoting presslord:
5 mins to call time...Pat has taken a bath just for this call...the least y'all can do is show up and tell him how good he smells...

We have scheduled the preliminary planning conference call for our 2nd Annual Portlight/WU Honor Walk for Thursdsay, October 15 @ 7:30PM EST

The call in number is:(800)929-7487

Participant code: 75434753#

The call will last no more than one hour.

Please, please join us...

I keep on getting an advertisement and the hung up... sorry I tried about 5 times
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800-920-7487

Thanki you!!!!!
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10490


Seismic Monitor

AOI

AOI

Humor in Comments
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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