Outlook for the remainder of hurricane season

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:18 PM GMT on October 15, 2009

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Atlantic tropical cyclone activity finishes its peak phase in mid-October, and takes a major downturn after about October 20 (Figure 1). Since the current active hurricane period began in 1995, the last half of October through the end of hurricane season has given birth to an average of 1.7 named storms, 0.8 hurricanes, and 0.3 intense hurricanes. These numbers are nearly double the long-term climatological averages for the past 100 years. So far this year, only one tropical storm has hit the U.S.--Tropical Storm Claudette. If no more tropical storms make landfall in the U.S., it will be the first year since 1993 to see only one tropical storm hitting the U.S.


Figure 1. Atlantic hurricane season activity over the past 100 years.

Late October and November storms tend to form from tropical waves that come off the coast of Africa, or from the remains of old fronts that push off the coast of the U.S. As we can see from the track plot of all last half of October storms (Figure 2), there is a lot of activity during the period, but relatively few storms form out near the African coast. The water temperatures off the coast of Africa are starting to cool and be marginal for hurricane formation, and the African Monsoon is waning, leading to fewer African waves coming off the coast. Wind shear is also starting to increase, as part of its normal fall cycle.

Climatology of late-season major hurricanes
Let's examine the possibilities of getting a late-season major hurricane, since those are the storms we care most about. Since 1960, there have been twelve hurricanes that have existed as major Category 3 or higher storms after October 15. Eight of these have occurred since 1995: Omar of 2008 (Cat 4, Lesser Antilles), Paloma of 2008 (Cat 4, Cayman Islands and Cuba), Wilma of 2005 (Cat 4, Mexico; Cat 3, SW Florida), Beta of 2005 (Cat 3, Nicaragua), Michelle of 2001 (Cat 4, Cuba), Lenny of 1999 (Cat 4, northern Lesser Antilles), Mitch of 1998 (Cat 5, Honduras), and Lili of 1996 (Bahamas, Category 3). The other four were Joan of 1988 (Cat 4, Nicaragua), Kate of 1985 (Cat 3, Gulf of Mexico), Ella of 1962 (Cat 3, west of Bermuda), and Hattie of 1961 (Cat 4, Belize). Wilma of 2005 was the only major hurricane since 1960 to hit the U.S. after October 15. The highest risk region for late season major hurricanes is the Western Caribbean, along the coasts of Nicaragua, Honduras, Belize, Mexico, and Cuba. So, we can say with high confidence that most of the U.S. coast can relax. Only the west coast of Florida, Florida Keys, and South Florida need to still be concerned about the possibility of a major hurricane. The Lesser Antilles Islands, Puerto Rico, and Hispaniola are also at low risk for a major hurricane the remainder of the season.



Figure 2. Tracks of all tropical storms and hurricanes since 1851 that formed October 16-31.

Sea Surface Temperatures
Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) are 0.5 - 1.5°C above average over the Western Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico (Figure 3), the primary formation areas for late October storms. So, there is still plenty of fuel for a major hurricane to form. Note also the tongue of warmer than average SSTs extending out into the Pacific Ocean from the coast of South America, the signature of weak El Niño conditions.


Figure 3. Sea Surface Temperature (SST) departure from average for October 15. Image credit: NOAA.

Wind shear
Wind shear is usually defined as the difference in wind between 200 mb (roughly 40,000 foot altitude) and 850 mb (roughly 5,000 foot altitude). In most circumstances, wind shear above 20 knots will act to inhibit tropical storm formation by tearing a storm apart. Wind shear 10 knots and lower is very conducive for tropical storm formation.

The jet stream in mid-October is more active and extends further south, which brings higher levels of wind shear to the Atlantic. The more active jet stream also acts to recurve storms more quickly. Any system penetrating north of about 20 degrees north latitude we can expect to recurve quickly to the north and northeast this late in the season. The most recent 16-day forecast from the GFS model predicts a period of high wind shear over the tropical Atlantic over the next ten days (Figure 4). Beginning on October 25, wind shear is expected to fall again over the Western Caribbean, and we need to be alert for tropical storm formation then. Indeed, the latest run of the GFS model is predicting a large area of surface low pressure will form in the Western Caribbean during the last week of October, an indication that hurricane season may not be over yet.

El Niño
El Niño conditions, which typically bring higher wind shear to the Atlantic and interfere with hurricane formation, continue to be present in the tropical Eastern Pacific. It is probably the case that some of this year's inactivity can be attributed to El Niño. However, as I discussed in a post earlier this year, El Niño events that warm the central Pacific more than the eastern Pacific (called "modiki" El Niño events), tend to bring less wind shear to the Atlantic. In recent weeks, El Niño conditions in the Eastern Pacific have trended more towards a "modiki" type event, with a large amount of warming in the Central Pacific. This shift in the El Niño may bring lower wind shear to the Atlantic over the final month of hurricane season.


Figure 4. Wind shear forecast for October 23, 2009, as produced by the 00 UTC run on October 14, 2009 made by the GFS model. Wind shear below about 8 m/s (roughly 15 knots, red colors) is typically needed to allow tropical storm formation. There aren't too many red-colored areas over the prime breeding grounds for tropical storms in the Atlantic over the next ten days in this forecast.

Summary
Given how quiet the tropics are at present, and the forecast of a high wind shear regime lasting until October 25, I doubt any tropical storms will form over the next ten days. If we do get something, it would probably be in the middle Atlantic between Bermuda and the Azores, far from land. However, I am still wary of the possibility of a hurricane in the Caribbean the last week of October or in November this year. There is evidence that the Atlantic hurricane season is starting earlier and ending later in recent decades. Dr. Jim Kossin of the University of Wisconsin published a paper in 2008 titled, "Is the North Atlantic hurricane season getting longer?" He concluded that yes, there is a "apparent tendency toward more common early- and late-season storms that correlates with warming Sea Surface Temperature but the uncertainty in these relationships is high". We had two major hurricanes in the Caribbean after October 15 last year, and I give a 60% chance that we'll get a named storm in the Caribbean before hurricane season ends on November 30. Hurricane season is not over--it's just in hibernation.

Happy Valley to become Yucky Valley
Winter is fast approaching, and the season's first major snowstorm for the U.S. East Coast is coming this weekend, according to the wunderblog of Wunderground's Dr. Rob Carver. Conditions will be particularly nasty on Saturday in Happy Valley, where Penn State is situated. The surrounding hills may get 4 - 12 inches of snow, and rain mixed with snow with 36°F temperatures are expected for Saturday's Penn State - Minnesota game. Ugh, winter! I'll have a forecast for the coming winter in a post sometime in the next week.

The Senate has not yet voted on the proposal to cut NOAA funding. I will post a report when the vote occurs.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
no snow here yet


Just for you :)
Link
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:

Computer and car problems suck.
Well, you missed a really heavy-duty technical science discussion between atmo and some other guy. Way above my head, but you might enjoy it.
Other than that, there was a Portlight conference call, Doc Masters joined in, and everyone seems pleased with it.
So have a nice night; I'm going to watch Craig Ferguson and turn in. I hate this early cold!
corrupt files on hard drive unable to load windows but vista has a repair option which seems to have fix the problem runnin good and fast now and i lost no files which is good at one point i was going to just trash it an go get a new one but it all worked out
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435. Skyepony (Mod)
That puts Blue in the lead followed by red & brown fighting for a distant 2nd..

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Quoting Orcasystems:


Thursday Night .. Friday Morning... Toronto... Snow Flurries... :)
no snow here yet
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433. Skyepony (Mod)

Latest Error (nm) LUPIT
model Error Trend 24hr Error 48hr Error 72hr Error Day 4 Error Day 5 Error
AVNO INCREASING 24.7 -1 -1 -1 -1
JMAE DECREASING 127.3 -1 -1 -1 -1
JTWC DECREASING 60 359.4 -1 -1 -1
KHRA DECREASING 192 -1 -1 -1 -1
KHRM DECREASING 192.1 -1 -1 -1 -1
KXTR DECREASING 136 -1 -1 -1 -1
MM5B DECREASING 89.2 372.2 -1 -1 -1
MM5E DECREASING 129.5 324.5 -1 -1 -1
RJTD CONSTANT 99.3 -1 -1 -1 -1
UKMT DECREASING 62.6 -1 -1 -1 -1
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
432. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
Skyepony,

Reading the discussion on Emanuel, he has implied that Atlantic cyclone frequency is increasing due to GW. Slide 38 of this presentation.

Link


I've seen that in his NOVA now presentation & somewhere else, he doesn't believe the trend is global as other basins have had less as the SST & # of storms rose in the Atlantic together. So globally no more frequency Which is also stated on that slide.. There was some graph in the NOVA article showing correlation.. The Atlantic SST & frequency of storms was suspected to be a result of the disproportionate amount USA is spewing GHGs, but I don't think was presented as a known.
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
finally back on had a serious computer crash today took over 7 hrs just to fix everything but all is ok so far what a day

Computer and car problems suck.
Well, you missed a really heavy-duty technical science discussion between atmo and some other guy. Way above my head, but you might enjoy it.
Other than that, there was a Portlight conference call, Doc Masters joined in, and everyone seems pleased with it.
So have a nice night; I'm going to watch Craig Ferguson and turn in. I hate this early cold!
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One on N Shore Near Causeway

Last Frame

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128749
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
finally back on had a serious computer crash today took over 7 hrs just to fix everything but all is ok so far what a day


Thursday Night .. Friday Morning... Toronto... Snow Flurries... :)
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
TVS signatures noted

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128749
finally back on had a serious computer crash today took over 7 hrs just to fix everything but all is ok so far what a day
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Quoting 19N81W:
your kidding me! that was a TS!?...unreal...I cant believe I lost my bet to a 50 MPH storm that was 50 miles across...I have experienced higher winds in my bathroom..what a quiet 'Hurricane Season'...

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/8307272.stm

Quiet season, quiet in the blog.
Hurricane Bill had me worried; I was afraid our east coast beaches would be decimated. The "invisible shield" saved us this year.
Now it's just this nasty yucky gloomy cold.
On the topic of the north pole ice melting -- I heard that similar conditions existed in the 1700s, that explorers could get through. So that gives me some small hope that it's cyclical, that we haven't destroyed the planet (yet). I don't know enough to get into an intelligent climate change discussion. I just hope science and good will can make things better.
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424. xcool
WGUS84 KLIX 160240
FLSLIX
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS BATON ROUGE LA
940 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2009

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN
LOUISIANA...MISSISSIPPI...

THE PEARL RIVER NEAR BOGALUSA AFFECTING ST. TAMMANY AND WASHINGTON
PARISHES IN LOUISIANA AND HANCOCK AND PEARL RIVER COUNTIES IN
MISSISSIPPI

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FORECAST CRESTS ARE BASED UPON RAINFALL THAT HAS OCCURRED ALONG WITH
ANTICIPATED RAIN FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS. ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECASTS
WILL BE MADE IF ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL OCCURS.

DO NOT DRIVE CARS THROUGH FLOODED AREAS. REMEMBER...TWO FEET OF
RUSHING WATER CAN CARRY AWAY MOST VEHICLES INCLUDING PICKUPS. TURN
AROUND AND DON'T DROWN.

A FOLLOWUP PRODUCT WILL BE ISSUED LATER. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER
RADIO...LOCAL TV AND RADIO STATIONS...OR YOUR CABLE PROVIDER...FOR
THE LATEST INFORMATION. THE LATEST GRAPHICAL HYDROLOGIC INFORMATION
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WEATHER.GOV.

&&

LAC103-117-MSC045-109-162040-
/O.EXT.KLIX.FL.W.0052.091016T0600Z-000000T0000Z/
/BXAL1.1.ER.091016T0600Z.091025T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
940 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2009

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
THE PEARL RIVER NEAR BOGALUSA.
* FROM LATE TONIGHT UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS
CANCELLED.
* AT 9:00 PM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 17.9 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* THE FLOOD STAGE IS 18.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER IS EXPECTED TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE LATE TONIGHT
AND CONTINUE TO RISE TO NEAR 19.5 FEET BY NEXT SATURDAY...OCTOBER 24TH.
* IMPACT...AT 20.0 FEET...WOODLANDS AND CROP ACREAGE ALONG THE RIVER
WILL BE FLOODED. THE BOGUE CHITTO WILDLIFE MANAGEMENT AREA WILL BE
INUNDATED WITH WATER IN RECREATIONAL CAMPS AND OVER ACCESS ROADS.




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your kidding me! that was a TS!?...unreal...I cant believe I lost my bet to a 50 MPH storm that was 50 miles across...I have experienced higher winds in my bathroom..what a quiet 'Hurricane Season'...

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/8307272.stm
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Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
National Hurricane Center
Tropical Cyclone Warning #2
TROPICAL CYCLONE RICK (EP202009)
3:00 AM UTC October 16 2009
=======================================

Subject: "Rick" is intensifying quickly and could become a hurricane tomorrow

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Rick (999 hPa) located at 12.4N 97.7W or 300 NM south-southeast of Acapulco, Mexico has sustained winds of 45 knots with gusts of 55 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west-northwest at 8 knots

Gale Force Winds
================
45 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 12.8N 098.8W - 55 knots (Tropical Storm)
24 HRS: 13.3N 100.3W - 70 knots (SSHS-1 Cyclone)
48 HRS: 14.3N 104.5W - 95 knots (SSHS-2 Cyclone)
72 HRS: 15.7N 109.0W - 115 knots (SSHS-4 Cyclone)


Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
Oh, my bad.
Claudette was only 2009 storm with landfall in the U.S.
Good people of other nations, please forgive.
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420. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
National Hurricane Center
Tropical Cyclone Warning #2
TROPICAL CYCLONE RICK (EP202009)
3:00 AM UTC October 16 2009
=======================================

Subject: "Rick" is intensifying quickly and could become a hurricane tomorrow

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Rick (999 hPa) located at 12.4N 97.7W or 300 NM south-southeast of Acapulco, Mexico has sustained winds of 45 knots with gusts of 55 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west-northwest at 8 knots

Gale Force Winds
================
45 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 12.8N 098.8W - 55 knots (Tropical Storm)
24 HRS: 13.3N 100.3W - 70 knots (SSHS-1 Cyclone)
48 HRS: 14.3N 104.5W - 95 knots (SSHS-2 Cyclone)
72 HRS: 15.7N 109.0W - 115 knots (SSHS-4 Cyclone)
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45643

2009 Tropical Storm Season

The tropical storm season begins on June 1, lasting through the end of November. As storms are named, their place in the list below will become a link to a page providing information about that storm. The maximum strength attained by the storm, followed by the dates of its genesis and dissipation are also given below

* one : Tropical Depression : May 28 - May 29
* ANA : Tropical Storm : August 11 - August 17
* BILL : Hurricane (Category 4) : August 15 - August 24
* CLAUDETTE : Tropical Storm : August 16 - August 17
* DANNY : Tropical Storm : August 26 - August 29
* ERIKA : Tropical Storm : September 1 - September 4
* FRED : Hurricane (Category 4): September 25 - September 26
* eight : Tropical Depression : September 25 - September 26
* GRACE : Tropical Storm : October 5 -
* HENRI : Tropical Storm : October 6 - October 8
* IDA
* JOAQUIN
* KATE
* LARRY
* MINDY
* NICHOLAS
* ODETTE
* PETER
* ROSE
* SAM
* TERESA
* VICTOR
* WANDA
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128749
Quoting 19N81W:
so did we have a landfalling named storm anywhere this season? Can we almost say that 2009 did not have a hurricane season?

Just tropical storm Claudette, I believe.
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417. JLPR
Quoting jurakantaino:
A star for PR,,JA,JA,,SIT AND WAIT.


lol I wouldn't do it any other way or my legs would bleed xD
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From Key West; we have a cold front due in by as early as Saturday afternoon, but certainly by Saturday early eve. Finally!!

.CLIMATE...
THE DAILY RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE AT THE KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL
AIRPORT ON OCTOBER 15TH WAS BROKEN TODAY. THE HIGH TEMPERATURE WAS 90
DEGREES WHICH BREAKS THE PREVIOUS RECORD OF 89 DEGREES SET ON THIS
DATE IN 2007.
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so did we have a landfalling named storm anywhere this season? Can we almost say that 2009 did not have a hurricane season?
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Fall approaches NOLA,with Squall Line and Downdrafts noted on N Shore moving Se.

Current Conditions

Audubon Park-Patton St., New Orleans, Louisiana (PWS)
Updated: 12 min 10 sec ago
Scattered Clouds

77.7 F
Scattered Clouds

Humidity: 88%

Dew Point: 74 F

Wind: Calm
Pressure: 29.76 in (Rising)
Heat Index: 80
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128749
413. JRRP
Link
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Now
Showers and thunderstorms continue to move southward across southern Mississippi and southeast Louisiana. The southern edge of these storms will reach...and move south of...Interstate 12 in southeast Louisiana...and Interstate 10 in coastal Mississippi...by 11 PM. Very heavy rain is occurring with the stronger storms...with several areas receiving 2 to 3 inches of rain in an hour. This will significantly reduce visibilities while driving...along with creating ponding of water on highways. Wind gusts to 40 mph will also be possible with the stronger storms.

For anyone Louisianans that have the potential to be affected by the approaching squall line, I'd advise against traveling unless it is absolutely necessary.
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Quoting Ossqss:


I am still puzzeled with the Carolina Panthers and Hurricanes ? Just like the NFL/NHL, they should just consolidate the two states and be done with it. LoL

Hey, that would free up a star for PR on the flag. Hummm

A star for PR,,JA,JA,,SIT AND WAIT.
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; )
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10492
Quoting Ossqss:


I am still puzzeled with the Carolina Panthers and Hurricanes ? Just like the NFL/NHL, they should just consolidate the two states and be done with it. LoL

Hey, that would free up a star for PR on the flag. Hummm


Oh, no, you didn'
Press is either snoozing or loading his gun.
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Seismic Monitor

AOI

AOI

Humor in Comments
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
Rick appears to be undergoing rapid intensification, similar to Jimena.
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Quoting Orcasystems:


Pressolinas... Carols... they all work :)


I am still puzzeled with the Carolina Panthers and Hurricanes ? Just like the NFL/NHL, they should just consolidate the two states and be done with it. LoL

Hey, that would free up a star for PR on the flag. Hummm

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Im gonna make the same donation as well.


Always willing to do my part.

Was good to hear all the interested folks and all.


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128749
Pat...I met with success...thanks for the 'good luck' wishes...

the call tonight went very well, I thought...Jeff Masters is truly a classs act...
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Who's watching who..?
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128749
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:
Atmo --

"the pressolinas"! oh, that's good!

I am so happy to see that you haven't lost your sense of humor!


Pressolinas... Carols... they all work :)
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
...don't think I'm not watchin' y'all...
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10492
In support of atmoaggie's statement that

In any modeling effort, one must calibrate the model against currently existing observations. If the obs are flawed? Game over. Model not useful.

please consider

http://www.miamiherald.com/news/environment/story/1283465.html

(I live close enough that every year I get the tastefully illustrated booklet on What To Do If It Blows.)
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Atmo --

"the pressolinas"! oh, that's good!

I am so happy to see that you haven't lost your sense of humor!
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Looks like the rain is over for Macon.. soon RTLSNK won't be an AOI for a day or two.

Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
390. -
That is indeed the point. Science and no bull, just being supportive, keep the faith. I appreciate the fact that you keep posting here when others have gone elsewhere.
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So tell me how this plays into the models?

Is the U.S.
Surface Temperature
Record Reliable?

or this--

Hidden Proxy Data Reveal Artificial Warming Trend


In any modeling effort, one must calibrate the model against currently existing observations. If the obs are flawed? Game over. Model not useful.

A storm surge/coastal circulation model compared and tuned against faulty current meters in coastal areas would be bad news if being used for evacuation decisions with a pending TC landfall. (Though that is a far less complicated situation than the IR signatures of our atmosphere...I cannot believe I just said that known what I do about surge modeling)

What will make it better for the future? A set of well-maintained, non-moving, rural observation stations that are installed according to the fixed set of rules that minimizes false signals. Until then, no model will have a correct baseline to start from when making prognostications about our future. (not to mention other issues in the GCM world)

L8R, going out side to watch the show.

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Quoting InTheCone:


atmo - I have read your posts for a great while and have come to trust you. Why? Because you only talk about science, no politics. I trust NO ONE any longer that purports any politics, one way or the other. In my humble opinion they do not represent the american people and I appreciate your objectivity. I have only seen your input to this blog as being highly beneficial(even if it is above my scientific knowledge). Thanks!


I second that statement.

Thanks atmo, for pointing the way.
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391. xcool
bad stuff head this way dm


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A few hail reports and a number of damaging wind reports along the convection so far today. One wind report at 60 mph.


Quoting calusakat:
It looks pretty clear...AGW is that 'preconceived notion' when it comes to weather observation.

Sometimes, but, well, to be fair, one cannot just discount all observations and conclusions drawn from them. There a kernel of truth somewhere under the layers. What is that truth and what does it mean?

It up to those that are willing to look further and challenge assumptions and the circumstantial nature of the 'evidence'. It is the cherry picking, selective and seemingly subjective datasets and conclusions that draw the most scrutiny and deservedly so.

InTheCone: Well, garshk, thanks (in my best Goofy voice)
(don't know what else to say)
I am an oddball that does not listen to Rush, doesn't watch Beck (or whomever), do not hold a party affiliation. I just do science, here anyway. (I do bash politicians when they try to make statements that have science within at times)
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Quoting presslord:
...all my science teachers said "Please just sit there and keep your mouth shut....and I'll give you a 'C'..."


My physics teacher used to say 'Democracy is fine as long as you remember that here in this classroom, I am the dictator.'
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Quoting calusakat:


All of my science teachers, high school and college, taught me that I had to leave my preconceived notions at the door when it came to science. To do otherwise was 'unscientific'.

They all made it clear that any interpretations that I might make had to come from a neutral position or else my conclusions would be essentially null and void. If I remember correctly, the words they most often used was 'rationization'.

It looks pretty clear that AGW is that preconceived notion when it comes to weather observation.


Considering the models use historical data as a base line, this link makes you wonder how they would be altered. Also look at the ice core evaluations and solar activity. Afterall, the sun is the source, right.

I would tell you that I have not found anything that Atmoaggie has presented (ever) to be inaccurate. And rest assured, I checked it. I commend you Atmo for your durability on the subject.

So tell me how this plays into the models?

Is the U.S.
Surface Temperature
Record Reliable?


or this--

Hidden Proxy Data Reveal Artificial Warming Trend


Then show me a model that takes into account all of the dynamic variables that are in play and the trustworthy data.

It does not exist.

Don't get me wrong, we have problems with our environment, but I am not so sure that anyone actually has a true understanding of what it actually is and or how to properly address it under the current senario.

Just my take :)

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387. xcool
i hate cold air
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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.