Henri nearly dead

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:38 PM GMT on October 08, 2009

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Tropical Depression Henri continues to suffer from high wind shear of 20 knots, and appears on its way to dissipation. Visible satellite loops show that the shear has exposed Henri's low level center to view, and this center has become less circular and not as well defined. Henri's heavy thunderstorms have been shrinking in areal coverage and intensity, and are displaced from the center--signs of a highly sheared tropical storm that has little time left to live.

All of the reliable global computer models show weakening and dissipation of Henri by Friday, due to high wind shear. Wind shear in the vicinity of Henri's remains is predicted to fall to the moderate range by Saturday, but at that time it appears that the storm will be moving over the Dominican Republic, which will disrupt whatever is left of the storm's circulation. Henri's remains may bring heavy rains of 2 - 4 inches the the Dominican Republic and Haiti Saturday through Monday. By Tuesday, the remains of Henri will likely be moving across Florida and/or Cuba and into the Gulf of Mexico, where we will need to watch the system for re-development.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Henri (top) and a new tropical wave we're watching (bottom). The tropical wave south of Henri, just off the coast of South America, has become disorganized.

Tropical wave south of Henri
A tropical wave south of Henri, just north of the coast of South America and a few hundred miles east-southeast of the southernmost Lesser Antilles Islands, has grown less organized since yesterday. Both the areal coverage and intensity of the heavy thunderstorm activity has decreased, and there are no signs of organization to the cloud pattern. This wave is under about 10 knots of wind shear, but is too close to the Equator to be able to take advantage of the Earth's spin to help it spin up into a tropical depression very quickly. Also, the wave may pull in some dry, stable air from South America as it scoots just north of the coast over the next few days. NHC is giving this disturbance a low (less than 30% chance) or developing into a tropical depression by Saturday. There are no computer models showing development of this system.


Figure 2. Tropical Storm Parma (left) and Typhoon Melor (right) on October 7, 2009. At the time, Melor was a Category 4 typhoon with 135 mph winds, and Parma was a tropical storm with 60 mph winds. The two storms were close enough together that they rotated around a common center counter-clockwise, in an interaction known as the Fujiwara Effect. This forced Parma to reverse course and pass over the Philippines from west to east, after the storm had already crossed the islands from east to west. Now that Melor is gone, Parma is crossing the Philippines once more from east to west. Image credit: NASA Earth Observatory.

Typhoon Melor
Typhoon Melor made landfall yesterday on Japan's Honshu Island south of Osaka as a Category 1 typhoon with 85 mph winds. The typhoon killed two people and caused some moderate damage to the coastal region of southern Japan where it came ashore.

In the Philippines, Tropical Depression Parma is making its third traverse over the Philippines' Luzon Island. is expected to dump up to six more inches of rain today over the already sodden portions of northern Luzon. The storm is being blamed for 22 deaths and millions in agricultural damage.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting StormChaser81:


I think we might feel that rumble. lol, hey look a chunk of the moon heading right for us, AHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH


in that movie, The Time Traveler, or whatever, a remake of a very old movie, that happens. Like 50 years in the future, someone blew up the moon and peices were falling to earth, wiping out the human race.
Member Since: July 29, 2006 Posts: 28 Comments: 1777
451. tornadodude
9:01 PM GMT on October 08, 2009
Quoting caneswatch:
Thanks Matt. How goes it at Purdue? I hear you got a new job, very nice!


No problem, well, I love it here, and yes, my new job is looking really exciting, (:
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8201
450. NRAamy
9:00 PM GMT on October 08, 2009
Klingon? I've been called many things, but never a Klingon...but I guess there's a first for everything...
Member Since: January 24, 2007 Posts: 317 Comments: 31946
449. eyesontheweather
9:00 PM GMT on October 08, 2009
Quoting TheCaneWhisperer:
Definitely not in my thought pattern.

Hummm, lets bomb the moon today.

I'd like to meet the guy that said ok to that, lol.
I would like to know who said OK to it but I believe I would want to stay far, far away Hmmm..... Hope he is nobody's neighbor!
Member Since: August 25, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 633
448. caneswatch
8:59 PM GMT on October 08, 2009
Thanks Matt. How goes it at Purdue? I hear you got a new job, very nice!
Member Since: October 8, 2008 Posts: 14 Comments: 4553
447. Greyelf
8:58 PM GMT on October 08, 2009
Quoting TheCaneWhisperer:


Wonder what happens when you bomb the moon? What if a freak chemical reaction just blows it up?


Hm... I wonder why I'm getting a picture in my head of Vulcan from the newest Star Trek movie...
Member Since: June 5, 2007 Posts: 18 Comments: 838
446. NRAamy
8:58 PM GMT on October 08, 2009
Jerry...I want to chop my right leg off...but other than that, I can't complain!

:)
Member Since: January 24, 2007 Posts: 317 Comments: 31946
445. tornadodude
8:58 PM GMT on October 08, 2009
Quoting TheCaneWhisperer:
Definitely not in my thought pattern.

Hummm, lets bomb the moon today.

I'd like to meet the guy that said ok to that, lol.


LOL
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8201
444. CosmicEvents
8:57 PM GMT on October 08, 2009
Quoting Floodman:


Howdy, Amy! How's our favorite gun totin' Cali girl?

Cali?
I thought she was a Klingon.
Member Since: August 3, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 5526
443. NEwxguy
8:56 PM GMT on October 08, 2009
Anyone looking for cool weather,will have to come up where I am,next week I'll have plenty of cool air.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 874 Comments: 15591
442. TheCaneWhisperer
8:56 PM GMT on October 08, 2009
Definitely not in my thought pattern.

Hummm, lets bomb the moon today.

I'd like to meet the guy that said ok to that, lol.
441. tornadodude
8:55 PM GMT on October 08, 2009
Quoting StormChaser81:


I think we might feel that rumble. lol, hey look a chunk of the moon heading right for us, AHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH


haha not to mention what that would do to the oceans!
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8201
440. Floodman
8:55 PM GMT on October 08, 2009
Quoting NRAamy:
Hi Jerry....

:)


Howdy, Amy! How's our favorite gun totin' Cali girl?
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
439. xcool
8:55 PM GMT on October 08, 2009
92L LOOKING very strong
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15620
438. StormChaser81
8:55 PM GMT on October 08, 2009
Quoting TheCaneWhisperer:


Wonder what happens when you bomb the moon? What if a freak chemical reaction just blows it up?


I think we might feel that rumble. lol, hey look a chunk of the moon heading right for us, AHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH
Member Since: August 11, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2315
437. Floodman
8:54 PM GMT on October 08, 2009
Quoting Grothar:


Flood!! How are you? Don't get much time on the blog anymore. I drop in and catch you though. Keep them coming!


I love my public! Try the veal and be sure to tip your waitresses...I'm here all week!
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
436. TheCaneWhisperer
8:53 PM GMT on October 08, 2009
Quoting StormChaser81:
NASA set to crash on the moon -- twice

I want to stay up for this but its at 4:30am, you will be able to see it with a decent backyard telescope.

NASA


Wonder what happens when you bomb the moon? What if a freak chemical reaction just blows it up?
435. NRAamy
8:53 PM GMT on October 08, 2009
Hi Jerry....

:)
Member Since: January 24, 2007 Posts: 317 Comments: 31946
434. tornadodude
8:53 PM GMT on October 08, 2009
Quoting caneswatch:


Thank you very much Grothar.


nice job!
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8201
433. caneswatch
8:52 PM GMT on October 08, 2009
Quoting Grothar:


Hey canes. I'm doing fine. By the way bloggers, canes mentioned the other night on Tropics chat that the feature (now 92L) was something to watch. Good work, canes!! We shall be watching.


Thank you very much Grothar.
Member Since: October 8, 2008 Posts: 14 Comments: 4553
432. Floodman
8:52 PM GMT on October 08, 2009
Quoting pearlandaggie:
I just walked outside with my hardhat on and there was actual condensation on my hat. It is THAT humid outside! Get us some cool air! LOL


You got a while to wait, dude...
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
431. hurricanejunky
8:51 PM GMT on October 08, 2009
Quoting CycloneOz:
New Poll!

Choose JFV's new bathroom theme:

1) Looney Tunes Theme
2) Cowboys and Indians Theme
3) Deliverance Theme
4) Other: ______________________


I think the deliverance theme would be best...
Member Since: August 28, 2006 Posts: 6 Comments: 2895
430. weatherbro
8:51 PM GMT on October 08, 2009
Quoting TheCaneWhisperer:


Potent Cold Front Thru Florida? Whatchu' Talkin' Bout' Willis?


I don't mean potent as in major cold lol. but a nice surge of cooler much drier air will make a big contrast from this sweltering week to some much anticipated Autumn weather next week. The subtropical ridge is forecasted by all reliable models to break-down by early next week and I can't wait.:)

This bout of humidity will be gone before you know it. Mark my words.:)
Member Since: May 26, 2007 Posts: 47 Comments: 1270
429. StormChaser81
8:51 PM GMT on October 08, 2009
Quoting Greyelf:
You did note that it is tomorrow (Friday), right? (Re: post 421)


Yup its tomorrow, Friday Oct 9
Member Since: August 11, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2315
428. Grothar
8:50 PM GMT on October 08, 2009
Quoting caneswatch:


Hi Grothar! How are you doing?


Hey canes. I'm doing fine. By the way bloggers, canes mentioned the other night on Tropics chat that the feature (now 92L) was something to watch. Good work, canes!! We shall be watching.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25345
427. tornadodude
8:49 PM GMT on October 08, 2009
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8201
426. Greyelf
8:47 PM GMT on October 08, 2009
You did note that it is tomorrow (Friday), right? (Re: post 421)
Member Since: June 5, 2007 Posts: 18 Comments: 838
425. StormChaser81
8:47 PM GMT on October 08, 2009
Quoting CycloneOz:
New Poll!

Choose JFV's new bathroom theme:

1) Looney Tunes Theme
2) Cowboys and Indians Theme
3) Deliverance Theme
4) Other: ______________________


Cubid and hearts
Member Since: August 11, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2315
424. tornadodude
8:46 PM GMT on October 08, 2009
Quoting tornadodude:


well I think Henri is done for now, but if he moves into the GOM, we may have to watch him a little bit more, and 92L should miss SA for the most part, and if it gains some latitude, then we may also have to keep a closer eye on it as well. Now, I should be able to provide some good graphics, but I will have to wait to see what exactly I am doing, but I know that it will be beneficial
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8201
423. juslivn
8:45 PM GMT on October 08, 2009
Quoting pearlandaggie:


you're not married, are you? LOL ;0

:)
Member Since: August 20, 2009 Posts: 85 Comments: 10051
422. Grothar
8:45 PM GMT on October 08, 2009
Quoting Floodman:


Howdy, grothar...how's things?


Flood!! How are you? Don't get much time on the blog anymore. I drop in and catch you though. Keep them coming!
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25345
421. StormChaser81
8:44 PM GMT on October 08, 2009
NASA set to crash on the moon -- twice

I want to stay up for this but its at 4:30am Fri Oct 9, you will be able to see it with a decent backyard telescope.

NASA
Member Since: August 11, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2315
420. NRAamy
8:43 PM GMT on October 08, 2009
413. CycloneOz 1:39 PM PDT on October 08, 2009
New Poll!

Choose JFV's new bathroom theme:

1) Looney Tunes Theme
2) Cowboys and Indians Theme
3) Deliverance Theme
4) Other: ______________________


4) Other : Smurfs
Member Since: January 24, 2007 Posts: 317 Comments: 31946
419. tornadodude
8:43 PM GMT on October 08, 2009
Quoting pearlandaggie:


you're not married, are you? LOL ;0


hahaha nope :P
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8201
417. tornadodude
8:43 PM GMT on October 08, 2009
Purdue jumped up 12 positions in the world university rankings this year. article
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8201
416. pearlandaggie
8:42 PM GMT on October 08, 2009
Quoting tornadodude:


...sometimes (actually most times) it is better to listen to people instead of always contradicting them, you know what I mean?


you're not married, are you? LOL ;0
Member Since: September 14, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 3963
415. CycloneOz
8:39 PM GMT on October 08, 2009
Quoting hurricanejunky:


You still alive?


Dude! :)
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 3617
414. winter123
8:39 PM GMT on October 08, 2009
henri is moving due north. why?

also, south american system has a pretty nice midlevel low. is it at the surface at all?
Member Since: July 29, 2006 Posts: 28 Comments: 1777
413. CycloneOz
8:39 PM GMT on October 08, 2009
New Poll!

Choose JFV's new bathroom theme:

1) Looney Tunes Theme
2) Cowboys and Indians Theme
3) Deliverance Theme
4) Other: ______________________
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 3617
412. tornadodude
8:39 PM GMT on October 08, 2009
Quoting WeatherStudent:
TornadoDude, I want apologies to you for being a smart ass to you earlier on today, on here. I'm sincerely sorry, hopefully you'll find it inside of yourself to forgive mee. Truce, still friends? :(


truce, we're good, just please try not to jump on people all the time, sometimes (actually most times) it is better to listen to people instead of always contradicting them, you know what I mean?
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8201
411. Greyelf
8:38 PM GMT on October 08, 2009
LOL @ #405
Member Since: June 5, 2007 Posts: 18 Comments: 838
410. Floodman
8:38 PM GMT on October 08, 2009
Quoting Grothar:
Hey!!!


Howdy, grothar...how's things?
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
409. Orcasystems
8:38 PM GMT on October 08, 2009
Hmm Henri is in the strike box.. high.
92L out of the strike box, low
Don't ask.. you don't want to know :)


Seismic Monitor

AOI

AOI

Humor in Comments

Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
408. pearlandaggie
8:38 PM GMT on October 08, 2009
Research Validates Key Role for Cosmic Rays in Climate Change

not that you'll hear about this in the states...it had to come from the Iranians, of all places.
Member Since: September 14, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 3963
407. tornadodude
8:37 PM GMT on October 08, 2009
Quoting Grothar:


It appears someone will do well in meteorology, I see. What does the baroclinic vector always equal? That should answer your question. What is your take on both systems. I need a quick update before retiring. It is after 11:00 here.
By the way, with your new position, we expect some serious graphics coming from you.


well I think Henri is done for now, but if he moves into the GOM, we may have to watch him a little bit more, and 92L should miss SA for the most part, and if it gains some latitude, then we may also have to keep a closer eye on it as well. Now, I should be able to provide some good graphics, but I will have to wait to see what exactly I am doing, but I know that it will be beneficial
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8201
406. hurricanejunky
8:37 PM GMT on October 08, 2009
Quoting CycloneOz:
Is Henri cruisin' to the Gulf?
Models sayin', "Ain't no bluff!
Westward Ho
Oh no, No, NO!
Maybe he's not dead enough!


You still alive?
Member Since: August 28, 2006 Posts: 6 Comments: 2895
405. NRAamy
8:37 PM GMT on October 08, 2009
isn't it time to change to the Holidays shower curtain? Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles Christmas? Power Rangers Hannukah?
Member Since: January 24, 2007 Posts: 317 Comments: 31946
404. caneswatch
8:36 PM GMT on October 08, 2009
Quoting Grothar:


It appears someone will do well in meteorology, I see. What does the baroclinic vector always equal? That should answer your question. What is your take on both systems. I need a quick update before retiring. It is after 11:00 here.
By the way, with your new position, we expect some serious graphics coming from you.


Hi Grothar! How are you doing?
Member Since: October 8, 2008 Posts: 14 Comments: 4553
403. CycloneOz
8:35 PM GMT on October 08, 2009
Is Henri cruisin' to the Gulf?
Models sayin', "Ain't no bluff!
Westward Ho
Oh no, No, NO!
Maybe he's not dead enough!
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 3617

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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.