Henri nearly dead

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:38 PM GMT on October 08, 2009

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Tropical Depression Henri continues to suffer from high wind shear of 20 knots, and appears on its way to dissipation. Visible satellite loops show that the shear has exposed Henri's low level center to view, and this center has become less circular and not as well defined. Henri's heavy thunderstorms have been shrinking in areal coverage and intensity, and are displaced from the center--signs of a highly sheared tropical storm that has little time left to live.

All of the reliable global computer models show weakening and dissipation of Henri by Friday, due to high wind shear. Wind shear in the vicinity of Henri's remains is predicted to fall to the moderate range by Saturday, but at that time it appears that the storm will be moving over the Dominican Republic, which will disrupt whatever is left of the storm's circulation. Henri's remains may bring heavy rains of 2 - 4 inches the the Dominican Republic and Haiti Saturday through Monday. By Tuesday, the remains of Henri will likely be moving across Florida and/or Cuba and into the Gulf of Mexico, where we will need to watch the system for re-development.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Henri (top) and a new tropical wave we're watching (bottom). The tropical wave south of Henri, just off the coast of South America, has become disorganized.

Tropical wave south of Henri
A tropical wave south of Henri, just north of the coast of South America and a few hundred miles east-southeast of the southernmost Lesser Antilles Islands, has grown less organized since yesterday. Both the areal coverage and intensity of the heavy thunderstorm activity has decreased, and there are no signs of organization to the cloud pattern. This wave is under about 10 knots of wind shear, but is too close to the Equator to be able to take advantage of the Earth's spin to help it spin up into a tropical depression very quickly. Also, the wave may pull in some dry, stable air from South America as it scoots just north of the coast over the next few days. NHC is giving this disturbance a low (less than 30% chance) or developing into a tropical depression by Saturday. There are no computer models showing development of this system.


Figure 2. Tropical Storm Parma (left) and Typhoon Melor (right) on October 7, 2009. At the time, Melor was a Category 4 typhoon with 135 mph winds, and Parma was a tropical storm with 60 mph winds. The two storms were close enough together that they rotated around a common center counter-clockwise, in an interaction known as the Fujiwara Effect. This forced Parma to reverse course and pass over the Philippines from west to east, after the storm had already crossed the islands from east to west. Now that Melor is gone, Parma is crossing the Philippines once more from east to west. Image credit: NASA Earth Observatory.

Typhoon Melor
Typhoon Melor made landfall yesterday on Japan's Honshu Island south of Osaka as a Category 1 typhoon with 85 mph winds. The typhoon killed two people and caused some moderate damage to the coastal region of southern Japan where it came ashore.

In the Philippines, Tropical Depression Parma is making its third traverse over the Philippines' Luzon Island. is expected to dump up to six more inches of rain today over the already sodden portions of northern Luzon. The storm is being blamed for 22 deaths and millions in agricultural damage.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Grothar:


When these systems are at too low a latitude, they don't do well, do they? Saw a graphic today on the blog of "Dog" I believe. that stayed south all the way, but I would assume that is a rarity. Thanks for the info.


10 degrees north is pretty much the limit for the corealis (spinning) effect of the earths rotation so storms can develop... in the atlantic at least. This is north of that. It's main issue will be land interaction on the south side.

be back late tonight or tomorrow to blob-cast with y'all. :)
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For later on a more crucial aspect of 92l is how much WNW will i go degrees wise, a higher degree of WNW may give it a chance to hit the Yucatan while a lower degree of WNW send it into central America.
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Quoting ElConando:


basically just slowing its development then.


right slowing, not stopping.
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Quoting Weather456:
92L is moving wnw and has been doing since I spoke this time yesterday. Interaction with SA as the NHC said maybe indirectly rather than directly.


basically just slowing its development then.
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92L is moving wnw and has been doing since I spoke this time yesterday. Interaction with SA as the NHC said maybe indirectly rather than directly.
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Quoting ElConando:


Yeah... gonna need a lot more than that to go on.


Yep, it got shreaded! The 5-10 knots goes on till Hispaniola.. See the map



Let's see what happens. These are the favorable conditions that Dr. Masters was looking at 2 days ago.
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Quoting KerryInNOLA:
I was the only one to predict in early August no GOM hurricanes this year. Finally some are seeing the wisdom of this. Even though the Gulf is "open" now neither Henri nor anything else of hurricane force will enter the Gulf.:)


well good for you, are you looking for a cookie? a gold star?
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8201
493. xcool
reedzone .:0
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15620
Good evening all
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Quoting reedzone:
Trying to refire deep convection in 5-10 knots of wind shear.



Yeah... gonna need a lot more than that to go on.
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Quoting WeatherStudent:


idk, i cant buy into that, its oct, dude, and that high acannot be that strong, or could it?


im really not sure, I dont know what it will do, it depends on if it even develops, and how quickly it does. you know?
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8201
Trying to refire deep convection in 5-10 knots of wind shear.

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Quoting NRAamy:
Jerry...a broken finger?

:(

let me guess which one....

;)


LOL

; )
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
Quoting caneswatch:
Matt, thanks for the answer. I'm just fearing another major hurricane like Wilma makes its way here again.


to be honest, I think you are safe from 92L, but as always, keep an eye on it
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8201
Quoting Floodman:
Okay, folks, I'm out...

Cue the theme music!


see you later flood, have a good one!
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8201
Matt, thanks for the answer. I'm just fearing another major hurricane like Wilma makes its way here again.
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Quoting winter123:


going to skirt along south american coast, all the way to panama, and possibly even move into the EPAC. But shear seems low. I think it has a pretty good chance. Should be interesting.


When these systems are at too low a latitude, they don't do well, do they? Saw a graphic today on the blog of "Dog" I believe. that stayed south all the way, but I would assume that is a rarity. Thanks for the info.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25369
Jerry...a broken finger?

:(

let me guess which one....

;)
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Okay, folks, I'm out...

Cue the theme music!
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
Quoting WeatherStudent:
Afternoon, just ignore them, Reed. Hey, what are your thoughts on 92L this afternoon?


It was organizing quite well earlier, even some banding features were evident, but now it's elongating itself. We'll have to see what happens tonight. Henri has entered wind shear conditions of 5-10 knots, but it's all do to a TUTT axis and I haven't learned much about those except for the fact that most tropical systems fall apart. So we'll see what happens, it's trying to make a comeback already.
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Why would that be?
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Quoting caneswatch:
Matt, I live in South Florida (Royal Palm Beach to be exact).

but to answer your question, it depends on how much it is influenced by the steering aloft, and it appears that it will stay well south of you, but still may develop
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8201
Quoting KerryInNOLA:
Hey yoyo. Henri is dead. Good luck wishcasting, thats all your group gets this year.


Really? And a great big happy get bent to you too!
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
Quoting NRAamy:
458. SQUAWK 2:04 PM PDT on October 08, 2009
Quoting WeatherStudent:


Good afternoon, sir. Hey, thanks a million for the heartfelt latest email coming from your behalf, my friend. I'm definitely trying to change. Now, regarding what you told me that I should be a law major; well, guess what, my friend, you weren't that far-off, I'm actually a Political Science major. I'm glad to see that you also see that potential in me. Anyways, I hope everything is handy-dandy with you and yours, bud.

I'm actually a Political Science major.

Why is it that sorta makes sense to me. God help us all.



I just shot an M&M outa my nose....damn you SQUAWK!

;)

Sorry princess. heheheheh
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Quoting caneswatch:
Matt, I live in South Florida (Royal Palm Beach to be exact).


well I think it would be safe to say that there is very little chance of 92L making it your way
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8201
Quoting caneswatch:
Matt and/or Grothar, what determines whether 92L comes my way or not?


Ever read "Written on the Wind" Don't ask me canes, I am just a lurker and a joker. Matt or Flood or any of the others could give you a more precise analysis. I just like to look at the colors on the maps. Remember, I am the one who thought a TUTT was an Egyptian King.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25369
The downcasters are on the loose! Get your ignore buttons ready people...
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Matt, I live in South Florida (Royal Palm Beach to be exact).
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Quoting Grothar:




Does look good. Is it still heading WNW?


going to skirt along south american coast, all the way to panama, and possibly even move into the EPAC. But shear seems low. I think it has a pretty good chance. Should be interesting.
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Quoting NRAamy:
Jerry...I want to chop my right leg off...but other than that, I can't complain!

:)


Well, if it makes you feel any better, in addition to the ongoing back saga, I seem to have broken a finger, and no, I haven't been hitting anything...I just woke up the other morning with it hurting...doc says its a stress fractureand so it goes, as bokannon would say
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
458. SQUAWK 2:04 PM PDT on October 08, 2009
Quoting WeatherStudent:


Good afternoon, sir. Hey, thanks a million for the heartfelt latest email coming from your behalf, my friend. I'm definitely trying to change. Now, regarding what you told me that I should be a law major; well, guess what, my friend, you weren't that far-off, I'm actually a Political Science major. I'm glad to see that you also see that potential in me. Anyways, I hope everything is handy-dandy with you and yours, bud.

I'm actually a Political Science major.

Why is it that sorta makes sense to me. God help us all.



I just shot an M&M outa my nose....damn you SQUAWK!

;)
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Quoting Floodman:


I'll bet you will, bro!


So will we in Florida(or at least much drier air).
Member Since: May 26, 2007 Posts: 47 Comments: 1271
Quoting caneswatch:
Matt and/or Grothar, what determines whether 92L comes my way or not?


where do you live?
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8201
Matt and/or Grothar, what determines whether 92L comes my way or not?
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459. Halyn
Quoting WeatherStudent:


i'm a political science major, mijo. get your facts straight before you type-away next time.
I am just now checking the blog and catching up .. but when I got to this statement I was terrified .. politics can destroy an entire country .. hurricanes do a lot of damage .. I support the idea of a change in majors .. :-)
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Quoting WeatherStudent:


Good afternoon, sir. Hey, thanks a million for the heartfelt latest email coming from your behalf, my friend. I'm definitely trying to change. Now, regarding what you told me that I should be a law major; well, guess what, my friend, you weren't that far-off, I'm actually a Political Science major. I'm glad to see that you also see that potential in me. Anyways, I hope everything is handy-dandy with you and yours, bud.

I'm actually a Political Science major.

Why is it that sorta makes sense to me. God help us all.

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Quoting NEwxguy:
Anyone looking for cool weather,will have to come up where I am,next week I'll have plenty of cool air.


I'll bet you will, bro!
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456. xcool
Grothar .I GUESS IMO
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Quoting xcool:
92L LOOKING very strong




Does look good. Is it still heading WNW?
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25369
You all might be wondering why convection is firing near the center of Henri, shear map shows 5-10 knots where the LLC is at. However, as someone pointed out yesterday, the 5-10 knots is caused by a TUTT axis. We'll see what happens, it's in better conditions, but will it take advantage? Stay tuned.
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You got a while to wait, dude...

I could never live in Brownsville, TX. Ugh!
Member Since: May 26, 2007 Posts: 47 Comments: 1271
Quoting StormChaser81:


I think we might feel that rumble. lol, hey look a chunk of the moon heading right for us, AHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH


in that movie, The Time Traveler, or whatever, a remake of a very old movie, that happens. Like 50 years in the future, someone blew up the moon and peices were falling to earth, wiping out the human race.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.