Henri nearly dead

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:38 PM GMT on October 08, 2009

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Tropical Depression Henri continues to suffer from high wind shear of 20 knots, and appears on its way to dissipation. Visible satellite loops show that the shear has exposed Henri's low level center to view, and this center has become less circular and not as well defined. Henri's heavy thunderstorms have been shrinking in areal coverage and intensity, and are displaced from the center--signs of a highly sheared tropical storm that has little time left to live.

All of the reliable global computer models show weakening and dissipation of Henri by Friday, due to high wind shear. Wind shear in the vicinity of Henri's remains is predicted to fall to the moderate range by Saturday, but at that time it appears that the storm will be moving over the Dominican Republic, which will disrupt whatever is left of the storm's circulation. Henri's remains may bring heavy rains of 2 - 4 inches the the Dominican Republic and Haiti Saturday through Monday. By Tuesday, the remains of Henri will likely be moving across Florida and/or Cuba and into the Gulf of Mexico, where we will need to watch the system for re-development.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Henri (top) and a new tropical wave we're watching (bottom). The tropical wave south of Henri, just off the coast of South America, has become disorganized.

Tropical wave south of Henri
A tropical wave south of Henri, just north of the coast of South America and a few hundred miles east-southeast of the southernmost Lesser Antilles Islands, has grown less organized since yesterday. Both the areal coverage and intensity of the heavy thunderstorm activity has decreased, and there are no signs of organization to the cloud pattern. This wave is under about 10 knots of wind shear, but is too close to the Equator to be able to take advantage of the Earth's spin to help it spin up into a tropical depression very quickly. Also, the wave may pull in some dry, stable air from South America as it scoots just north of the coast over the next few days. NHC is giving this disturbance a low (less than 30% chance) or developing into a tropical depression by Saturday. There are no computer models showing development of this system.


Figure 2. Tropical Storm Parma (left) and Typhoon Melor (right) on October 7, 2009. At the time, Melor was a Category 4 typhoon with 135 mph winds, and Parma was a tropical storm with 60 mph winds. The two storms were close enough together that they rotated around a common center counter-clockwise, in an interaction known as the Fujiwara Effect. This forced Parma to reverse course and pass over the Philippines from west to east, after the storm had already crossed the islands from east to west. Now that Melor is gone, Parma is crossing the Philippines once more from east to west. Image credit: NASA Earth Observatory.

Typhoon Melor
Typhoon Melor made landfall yesterday on Japan's Honshu Island south of Osaka as a Category 1 typhoon with 85 mph winds. The typhoon killed two people and caused some moderate damage to the coastal region of southern Japan where it came ashore.

In the Philippines, Tropical Depression Parma is making its third traverse over the Philippines' Luzon Island. is expected to dump up to six more inches of rain today over the already sodden portions of northern Luzon. The storm is being blamed for 22 deaths and millions in agricultural damage.

Jeff Masters

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so, did we decide upon a new shower curtain?
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Now that Henri can be classified as "dead", I'm focussing primarily on 92L, I doubt that 92L will interact with land, I think that 92L will be 2009's next TD, imo.


kinda agree with the part that 92L is next in line, we can monitor Henri for regeneration but 92L seems to the focus over the upcoming days.
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Quoting ElConando:


Okay I understand, I mostly base it off dry air for now. Its covered with it right now. Shear is low but that is really negated by the amount of dry air in the area. TD 2 regenerated into ANA because there was not much dry air in the area and shear went lower, Fred didn't because even though there was lower shear it was constantly abused by dry air. In Henri's case, I believe it will be the same as Fred. A naked swirl pulsing with convection from time to time but eventually losing it.


I can agree with that :)
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Quoting reedzone:


There's really no tell what these systems may do. Especially this year, it's been interesting to track even though it's been slow. I'm expecting 2 more storms coming out of this MJO pulse these next few weeks. I can't say it was a total bust, it was predicted to be slow after people noticed El Nino to be kicking in. I just don't agree on basing forecast and stuff by El Nino or La Nina. Anything can happen, we don't need El Ninos or La Ninas to make forecasts. I'll be monitoring Henri and 92L for "possible" further development.


For me, 2009 has been more interesting than 2006.
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Quoting ElConando:
After a chilly end to September for Tallahassee it is HOT, well above average highs and lows at the moment.


Yes and possible snows in Detroit and Boston next week. Weird weather :/
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Quoting ElConando:
Also the shear amount of Dry air is not good for any weak system let alone a naked swirl.


Okay I understand, I mostly base it off dry air for now. Its covered with it right now. Shear is low but that is really negated by the amount of dry air in the area. TD 2 regenerated into ANA because there was not much dry air in the area and shear went lower, Fred didn't because even though there was lower shear it was constantly abused by dry air. In Henri's case, I believe it will be the same as Fred. A naked swirl pulsing with convection from time to time but eventually losing it.
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Now that Henri can be classified as "dead", I'm focussing primarily on 92L, I doubt that 92L will interact with land, I think that 92L will be 2009's next TD, imo.
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alright guys, im out, have a good one!
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8416
Quoting Weather456:


I was actually asking to get your feedback on why not to question your opinion. As for me, I'm not really taking sides, just monitoring Henri. When comes to regeneration, it isn't really wise to jump the gun.


There's really no tell what these systems may do. Especially this year, it's been interesting to track even though it's been slow. I'm expecting 2 more storms coming out of this MJO pulse these next few weeks. I can't say it was a total bust, it was predicted to be slow after people noticed El Nino to be kicking in. I just don't agree on basing forecast and stuff by El Nino or La Nina. Anything can happen, we don't need El Ninos or La Ninas to make forecasts. I'll be monitoring Henri and 92L for "possible" further development.
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After a chilly end to September for Tallahassee it is HOT, well above average highs and lows at the moment.
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Quoting KerryInNOLA:
You and Reed lighten up. The crow soup is on the stove.
Popcorn, Soda, Napkins all set!
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Quoting ElConando:


I highly doubt it will regenerate now but thats my opinion so you have yours? You still favor it?


I was actually asking to get your feedback on why not to question your opinion. As for me, I'm not really taking sides, just monitoring Henri. When comes to regeneration, it isn't really wise to jump the gun.
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Also the shear amount of Dry air is not good for any weak system let alone a naked swirl.
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Henri,92L got a gun barrel pointed at their head unless 92L ducks and stays low in lattitude and hits central america
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Quoting KerryInNOLA:
You and Reed lighten up. The crow soup is on the stove.


Alright TACOMAN, we have more then 6 storms so take your crow filled tacos and leave this site!
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power house front coming down the pike this weekend and another reinforcing shot early next week. whoo! gonna sweep out the tropics man
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Quoting Weather456:


why?


I highly doubt it will regenerate now but thats my opinion so you have yours? You still favor it?
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Quoting KerryInNOLA:
You and Reed lighten up. The crow soup is on the stove.


enjoy
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8416
Quoting ElConando:


I'm happy we don't have to worry about regeneration anymore.


why?
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were still watching?
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Its become quite clear to me who Kerry in Nola is,
STORMTOP, being well STORMTOP.
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who u talking to?


The guy who mentioned the condensation on his hat when stepping outside.
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I'm happy we don't have to worry about regeneration anymore.

what do you mean "anymore"?

( cue creepy music )
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Quoting Weather456:


As I said on my blog over the past 3 days, Henri will encounter this trough and could of been pulled out to sea. However, I stated that this possibility was fading since the trough was already lifting to its north. That visible imagery was just showing Henri's expose center in relation to the pre-frontal flow. I really does not mean much for Puerto Rico but scattered debris showers.


I'm happy we don't have to worry about regeneration anymore.
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Thanks 456 will see!
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Quoting ElConando:


I don't really agree with the graveyard theory, its the conditions that count, granted storms develop quite slowly in the Eastern Caribbean.


true
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Quoting KerryInNOLA:
I want the recognition and respect that Dr Lyons and Masters get. I want to take my place alongside the great ones like Dr.Celsius.


"I" aren't you on a met team?
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Quoting luigi18:
whats thats mean? to us here in PR


As I said on my blog over the past 3 days, Henri will encounter this trough and could of been pulled out to sea. However, I stated that this possibility was fading since the trough was already lifting to its north. That visible imagery was just showing Henri's expose center in relation to the pre-frontal flow. I really does not mean much for Puerto Rico but scattered debris showers.
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Quoting KerryInNOLA:
I want the recognition and respect that Dr Lyons and Masters get. I want to take my place alongside the great ones like Dr.Celsius.


Respect is earned, and by telling people on here that we dont know what we are talking about and by bragging to us, you arent earning it
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8416
Quoting KerryInNOLA:
I want the recognition and respect that Dr Lyons and Masters get. I want to take my place alongside the great ones like Dr.Celsius.


Keep it up, you'll never have respect from anyone by the way you act on here.
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Hey all from Seattle

63degrees F
Low is 39Degrees F tonight

Saturday through monday lows are suppose to drop in the 20's for my area
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Quoting Grothar:


Hey Weather456! Is the shear supposed to lessen by the DR?


yea...It already has
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Quoting Weather456:
Henri expose LLCC is interacting with pre-frontal flow from the advancing frontal trough.

whats thats mean? to us here in PR
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505. 100l 2:27 PM PDT on October 08, 2009
Why isn't there a floater over 92L?



because it learned how to swim....
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Quoting Weather456:
Henri expose LLCC is interacting with pre-frontal flow from the advancing frontal trough.



Wait didn't that happen with the remnants of Fred? Interesting, didn't think about that one, thanks 456 :)
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Quoting OSUWXGUY:


Indeed. Despite an increase in convection, 92L looks very disorganized at the moment. We're pretty much back to what we were at this time yesterday, and given that in 24 hours it will be in the graveyard for storms (eastern Caribbean) it needs to get going in a hurry or it probably won't at all.



I don't really agree with the graveyard theory, its the conditions that count, granted storms develop quite slowly in the Eastern Caribbean.
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Quoting OSUWXGUY:
I'm out for the night... Good evening everyone!



you too
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8416
Surface observations show no evidence of a surface low pressure with 92L. 92L broad and ill-defined circulation is locked in the mid levels. As the system leaves the area of divergence off the northwestern South American coast, the system will be more inclined to deal with dry continental air and upper level convergence.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 31901
I'm out for the night... Good evening everyone!

503. I saw that, I was wondering where is was getting convection from.
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Quoting Weather456:
Good evening all


Hey Weather456! Is the shear supposed to lessen by the DR?
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505. 100l
Why isn't there a floater over 92L?
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Quoting Weather456:
92L is moving wnw and has been doing since I spoke this time yesterday. Interaction with SA as the NHC said maybe indirectly rather than directly.


Indeed. Despite an increase in convection, 92L looks very disorganized at the moment. We're pretty much back to what we were at this time yesterday, and given that in 24 hours it will be in the graveyard for storms (eastern Caribbean) it needs to get going in a hurry or it probably won't at all.

Henri expose LLCC is interacting with pre-frontal flow from the advancing frontal trough.

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Quoting Grothar:


When these systems are at too low a latitude, they don't do well, do they? Saw a graphic today on the blog of "Dog" I believe. that stayed south all the way, but I would assume that is a rarity. Thanks for the info.


10 degrees north is pretty much the limit for the corealis (spinning) effect of the earths rotation so storms can develop... in the atlantic at least. This is north of that. It's main issue will be land interaction on the south side.

be back late tonight or tomorrow to blob-cast with y'all. :)
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Dr. Masters co-founded wunderground in 1995. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990. Co-blogging with him: Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

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