Henri nearly dead

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:38 PM GMT on October 08, 2009

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Tropical Depression Henri continues to suffer from high wind shear of 20 knots, and appears on its way to dissipation. Visible satellite loops show that the shear has exposed Henri's low level center to view, and this center has become less circular and not as well defined. Henri's heavy thunderstorms have been shrinking in areal coverage and intensity, and are displaced from the center--signs of a highly sheared tropical storm that has little time left to live.

All of the reliable global computer models show weakening and dissipation of Henri by Friday, due to high wind shear. Wind shear in the vicinity of Henri's remains is predicted to fall to the moderate range by Saturday, but at that time it appears that the storm will be moving over the Dominican Republic, which will disrupt whatever is left of the storm's circulation. Henri's remains may bring heavy rains of 2 - 4 inches the the Dominican Republic and Haiti Saturday through Monday. By Tuesday, the remains of Henri will likely be moving across Florida and/or Cuba and into the Gulf of Mexico, where we will need to watch the system for re-development.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Henri (top) and a new tropical wave we're watching (bottom). The tropical wave south of Henri, just off the coast of South America, has become disorganized.

Tropical wave south of Henri
A tropical wave south of Henri, just north of the coast of South America and a few hundred miles east-southeast of the southernmost Lesser Antilles Islands, has grown less organized since yesterday. Both the areal coverage and intensity of the heavy thunderstorm activity has decreased, and there are no signs of organization to the cloud pattern. This wave is under about 10 knots of wind shear, but is too close to the Equator to be able to take advantage of the Earth's spin to help it spin up into a tropical depression very quickly. Also, the wave may pull in some dry, stable air from South America as it scoots just north of the coast over the next few days. NHC is giving this disturbance a low (less than 30% chance) or developing into a tropical depression by Saturday. There are no computer models showing development of this system.


Figure 2. Tropical Storm Parma (left) and Typhoon Melor (right) on October 7, 2009. At the time, Melor was a Category 4 typhoon with 135 mph winds, and Parma was a tropical storm with 60 mph winds. The two storms were close enough together that they rotated around a common center counter-clockwise, in an interaction known as the Fujiwara Effect. This forced Parma to reverse course and pass over the Philippines from west to east, after the storm had already crossed the islands from east to west. Now that Melor is gone, Parma is crossing the Philippines once more from east to west. Image credit: NASA Earth Observatory.

Typhoon Melor
Typhoon Melor made landfall yesterday on Japan's Honshu Island south of Osaka as a Category 1 typhoon with 85 mph winds. The typhoon killed two people and caused some moderate damage to the coastal region of southern Japan where it came ashore.

In the Philippines, Tropical Depression Parma is making its third traverse over the Philippines' Luzon Island. is expected to dump up to six more inches of rain today over the already sodden portions of northern Luzon. The storm is being blamed for 22 deaths and millions in agricultural damage.

Jeff Masters

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Did they get any tsunamis from the quakes in the last 24 hours?

I see SoCal, Baja is reacting, albeit weakly, some threes and a rare 4 something.

Usually just low threes and below in that region. Expected Alaska to respond, not SoCal.
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Quoting pottery:
Looks like 92L will pass mostly north of Trinidad. Should get some nice rains though. Grenada and St.Vincent will probably feel more weather than Trinidad.
First showers from the system falling this afternoon here, and some thunder to the north. No problem with that at all...


Not a drop here yet Pottery.
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auminer68-

Phunny....
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Quoting Weather456:
Since the SHIPS conditions is based on the GFS it shows RH values of 60% as 92L moves through the Caribbean and that is the average through 700-500 mb.
From 0 to a 100%, what are the chances of 92L forming into a tropical storm...I know this is a difficult call, but I am curious about your thinking on this system.
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Quoting Orcasystems:


30 here :(
and if she ever did say it, I would be worried of the cost


I shall leave you with this quote:

A psychiatrist is a person who will give you expensive answers that your wife will give you for free”

Of course, if you all never hear from me again, you will know who read this. You all stay well and play nice! Nite everyone.
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597. KBH
what's the latest on 92L?
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From above:

....""Figure 2. Tropical Storm Parma (left) and Typhoon Melor (right) on October 7, 2009. At the time, Melor was a Category 4 typhoon with 135 mph winds, and Parma was a tropical storm with 60 mph winds. The two storms were close enough together that they rotated around a common center counter-clockwise, in an interaction known as the Fujiwara Effect. This forced Parma to reverse course and pass over the Philippines from west to east, after the storm had already crossed the islands from east to west. Now that Melor is gone, Parma is crossing the Philippines once more from east to west."".....



Phillipines are like, "W.T.P?"

(hopefully I'm not the only one that gets that...)
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Fiji area just had another quake. 5.2 this time so not as bad as yesterday.

Does anyone know is this is normal? Alot of attention is being paid to the area because of the Tsunami, so I just wonder if this is as common as a thunderstorm in Miami during the summer or not.
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Quoting Drakoen:
The ECMWF and GFS show dry air being prevalent in the Caribbean:

But not in eastern.
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No comment.. she reads the Blog :)
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
Orca - With SWMBO being the nickname of your significant other... No doubt you've never heard those words... (not that I have heard those words either)
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CycloneOz - Did you go to the orient for the 'canes out there?
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Quoting Grothar:


Ah, now if I could only get my wife to utter those sweet words but once...........!!!


30 here :(
and if she ever did say it, I would be worried of the cost
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
Quoting Grothar:


Ah, now if I could only get my wife to utter those sweet words but once...........!!!
never in 20 years for me lol
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Quoting stormsurge39:
your right


Ah, now if I could only get my wife to utter those sweet words but once...........!!!
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Quoting Dakster:


WS flushed the toilet...
That is entirely funny.
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586. xcool
lol
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Im not a downcater, but every model i just looked at has 92 going right over the top of SA and right back into the pacific! Like it needs another hurricane! Sheesh
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Quoting 100l:
Why isn't there a floater over 92L?


WS flushed the toilet...
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Shear has relaxed on Henri, now it has to deal with downward dry air and then possible land interaction! What else is new this season it seems like a storm will get a couple things going for it and then splat, bam, capooee!!! Except for Bill of course!
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Since the SHIPS conditions is based on the GFS it shows RH values of 60% as 92L moves through the Caribbean and that is the average through 700-500 mb.
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Quoting Grothar:


I am off to bed, but is there a flare-up right over the center of circulation, or are my eyes getting tired. Now don't all jump at once. One criticism at a time shall suffice.
your right
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Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Looks like Henri is trying to blow up a little convection.


Hey Doug! :)

Wassup bro! Miss ya

My love to you and your family.
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I am off to bed, but is there a flare-up right over the center of circulation, or are my eyes getting tired. Now don't all jump at once. One criticism at a time shall suffice.
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Quoting Drakoen:
The ECMWF and GFS show dry air being prevalent in the Caribbean:



With that DLM High along with a negative MJO in the area... sinking air will present some challenges to 92L. Now if it's able to keep south enough and not hug the southern periphery of the DLM High to its N / NW then it will be able to survive, but not sure about actual development to no more than what Heri experienced.
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Good Night Folks.....Let's see how 92 fares by tommorow morning...Hopfully not too much rain for our folks in the Windwards.
Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 9236
By early next week, it's likely the news will be about Melor, not Henri.

"AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA CA
236 PM PDT THU OCT 8 2009

...STRONG STORM SYSTEM ON TAP FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...

.DISCUSSION...
THE EXTRATROPICAL LOW...FORMER WESTERN PACIFIC TYPHOON MELOR...WILL
EJECT INTO THE WESTERLIES. THE INFLUX OF TROPICAL MOISTURE AND ENERGY
WILL INTENSIFY THE JET...WHICH WILL UNDERCUT THE RIDGE IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC. THE RIDGE CENTER WILL RETROGRADE TO NORTHERN ALASKA WITH THE
JET RACING TO THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST.

WARM ADVECTION/WARM FRONTAL RAINS WILL START ON MONDAY...SPREADING
SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT. THE WINDS COULD BEGIN TO PICK UP MONDAY AHEAD OF
THE RAIN. THIS COULD CAUSE BLOWING DUST AND DIRT FROM THE FIELDS
ACROSS ROADWAYS. RAIN AND WIND WILL INCREASE ON TUESDAY AND CONTINUE
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG THE 295K LEVEL
WITH 50+ KT UPGLIDE. TPW VALUES WILL BE GREATER THAN 1.5 INCHES. 925
MB WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 50+ KT...PERPENDICULAR TO THE HILLS. THE
POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...AS MUCH AS 1 TO 3 INCHES
ALONG THE COAST AND VALLEYS WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS TO 5 INCHES. THE
HILLS COULD SEE 3 TO 6 INCHES...WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS TO 8 INCHES.
FUTURE MODEL RUNS WILL HELP PINPOINT THE AREAS OF HEAVIEST RAIN. THE
GFS ENSEMBLES ARE SHOWING VERY LITTLE ENSEMBLE SPREAD AMONG ITS
MEMBERS...WHICH INCREASES THE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST...EVEN
THOUGH IT IS STILL FIVE DAYS AWAY.
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Good evening...
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574. beell
Tornado Watch 759-OK/TX
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Quoting P451:


Not so sure. I don't see the twist it had earlier this AM. It has convection but not organized convection. It may go orange but I think that might be a false "hope".

I will continue for now to be in the camp of thinking that it will possibly hold together and possibly be a threat once it gets near the western caribbean. From there, as we all know, if the conditions are right, and given all that heat potential that has not been tapped even once, a dangerous storm is a possibility.

Although, this season has been an odd one, so maybe the (cliche) that systems that don't generate by the time they reach the Islands they don't generate until they reach the central caribbean. The East Caribbean has been known to be a dead zone.

But again this season has been an odd one so who knows.

Still in watching mode not predicting mode for 92L.
Odd, yes, The western caribbean has been the dead zone this year not even a TD , so far. Most of the season systems came from CV waves , except for Claudette of course, in the GOM,
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456, The NHC doesnt give 92L much hope! I know they only go 48hours out, but dont they also see the potential in storms in real time like the experienced people like yourself on this site? Thanks
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Quoting Drakoen:
The ECMWF and GFS show dry air being prevalent in the Caribbean:



don't need a model to see that.
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The ECMWF and GFS show dry air being prevalent in the Caribbean:

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Looks like 92L will pass mostly north of Trinidad. Should get some nice rains though. Grenada and St.Vincent will probably feel more weather than Trinidad.
First showers from the system falling this afternoon here, and some thunder to the north. No problem with that at all...
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24391
Quoting P451:


It's been a long time so maybe it was 2003. I just recall having a 24 incher in February of that year - on top of a good 6 incher just a few days prior. It may have been 2003 now that I think about it. Some family came down with my newborn niece (of 3 months) and we got hammered with the storm. She will be 7+3 months this coming February.

So you're correct.

2003.

That's about right....where I live in Monmouth County NJ we get it good about every six or seven years. All signs point to us getting it this year.


Yeah you guys got slammed with the Presidents Day Blizzard of 2003. 2 blizzards that year, one in February and December.
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Looks like Henri is trying to blow up a little convection.
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Remember the rule.


If a system hasn't developed by the time it enters the east carrib. They don't develope untill they get to the central or western. (If at all).
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Quoting P451:


I can tell you that here in E-Central-NJ, since about March 20th or so, we have been below normal in temperature and above normal in precip. The long range forecasts continue this path. Should be a very interesting winter for the Mid-Atlantic and North East coastal regions.

Could be a big one.

Haven't had a big winter since 2002 in my region. Just 30 miles north however they've had a couple of heavy snow winters since then just not here.


You mean 2003 right? 2002 only had one snowstorm on January 19, well on Long Island that is.. After I moved, 2003 started a train of winter storms for my old hometown. However, there was one very early snowstorm in December of 2002.
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Quoting ElConando:


you mean 2006?


Oops, yes.. 2006, not 2009.. typo lol
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Quoting P451:
U of Hawaii Atlantic Regional Satellite Imagery


12HR WV 92L


should be coated orange or less likely red at 8PM, imo.
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Quoting ElConando:


Okay I understand, I mostly base it off dry air for now. Its covered with it right now. Shear is low but that is really negated by the amount of dry air in the area. TD 2 regenerated into ANA because there was not much dry air in the area and shear went lower, Fred didn't because even though there was lower shear it was constantly abused by dry air. In Henri's case, I believe it will be the same as Fred. A naked swirl pulsing with convection from time to time but eventually losing it.


To add to that, futuremet made an excellent point that Henri might be heading more under a deep layer ridge which suppresses the cyclone ability to produce deep convection by placing a cap over.
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Quoting Weather456:


kinda agree with the part that 92L is next in line, we can monitor Henri for regeneration but 92L seems to the focus over the upcoming days.
Regeneration is possible, but not likely, I think that if Henri where to once again become a TD, it will be around the vicinity of the Turks & Caicos. 92L will most likely, like I said be our next TD and will not interact with land, imo.
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Quoting reedzone:


I agree, it is more interesting then 2009.


you mean 2006?
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456 I just posted a simple yet good idea of the there is barely a chance for Henri to regenerate.
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Quoting Weather456:


For me, 2009 has been more interesting than 2006.


I agree, it is more interesting then 2009.
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so, did we decide upon a new shower curtain?
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.