Henri nearly dead

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:38 PM GMT on October 08, 2009

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Tropical Depression Henri continues to suffer from high wind shear of 20 knots, and appears on its way to dissipation. Visible satellite loops show that the shear has exposed Henri's low level center to view, and this center has become less circular and not as well defined. Henri's heavy thunderstorms have been shrinking in areal coverage and intensity, and are displaced from the center--signs of a highly sheared tropical storm that has little time left to live.

All of the reliable global computer models show weakening and dissipation of Henri by Friday, due to high wind shear. Wind shear in the vicinity of Henri's remains is predicted to fall to the moderate range by Saturday, but at that time it appears that the storm will be moving over the Dominican Republic, which will disrupt whatever is left of the storm's circulation. Henri's remains may bring heavy rains of 2 - 4 inches the the Dominican Republic and Haiti Saturday through Monday. By Tuesday, the remains of Henri will likely be moving across Florida and/or Cuba and into the Gulf of Mexico, where we will need to watch the system for re-development.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Henri (top) and a new tropical wave we're watching (bottom). The tropical wave south of Henri, just off the coast of South America, has become disorganized.

Tropical wave south of Henri
A tropical wave south of Henri, just north of the coast of South America and a few hundred miles east-southeast of the southernmost Lesser Antilles Islands, has grown less organized since yesterday. Both the areal coverage and intensity of the heavy thunderstorm activity has decreased, and there are no signs of organization to the cloud pattern. This wave is under about 10 knots of wind shear, but is too close to the Equator to be able to take advantage of the Earth's spin to help it spin up into a tropical depression very quickly. Also, the wave may pull in some dry, stable air from South America as it scoots just north of the coast over the next few days. NHC is giving this disturbance a low (less than 30% chance) or developing into a tropical depression by Saturday. There are no computer models showing development of this system.


Figure 2. Tropical Storm Parma (left) and Typhoon Melor (right) on October 7, 2009. At the time, Melor was a Category 4 typhoon with 135 mph winds, and Parma was a tropical storm with 60 mph winds. The two storms were close enough together that they rotated around a common center counter-clockwise, in an interaction known as the Fujiwara Effect. This forced Parma to reverse course and pass over the Philippines from west to east, after the storm had already crossed the islands from east to west. Now that Melor is gone, Parma is crossing the Philippines once more from east to west. Image credit: NASA Earth Observatory.

Typhoon Melor
Typhoon Melor made landfall yesterday on Japan's Honshu Island south of Osaka as a Category 1 typhoon with 85 mph winds. The typhoon killed two people and caused some moderate damage to the coastal region of southern Japan where it came ashore.

In the Philippines, Tropical Depression Parma is making its third traverse over the Philippines' Luzon Island. is expected to dump up to six more inches of rain today over the already sodden portions of northern Luzon. The storm is being blamed for 22 deaths and millions in agricultural damage.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting PcolaDan:


This one?



The next one....the one bearing the remanants of Melor, will hit the Pac NW late Monday/Tues. it looks like its going to be pretty big.
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Quoting Patrap:
Mayan Calenders are selling briskly...
yes, but will Ah Puch be merciful? Ah Puch = Mayan God of death.
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650. xcool
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting Patrap:
Mayan Calenders are selling briskly...




Actually I'm waiting to see if Zager and Evans are right.
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Mayan Calenders are selling briskly...
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129457
Quoting WaterWitch11:
I just looked at the satellite for the west coast my god the storm is huge.


This one?

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Quoting homelesswanderer:


This getting unbelievable. Granted I'm no expert in earthquake frequency but I remember saying days ago that this seems like a whole lot of them. And they're still coming.


hi,
believe me I'm not either, but I have watched them a long time and what's occurring now is not the "norm". I know we were at high tide because of the full moon but that's passed now so hopefully it will calm down, I am concerned about the monster storm in the pacific, I feel at times pressure in the atmosphere plays a role and that's has only increased my concern for alaska.
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Quoting AllStar17:
92L continuing to steadily get better organized.
Yes, slowly but surely. I believe we will have a tropical depression by tomorrow night. jmo
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Quoting homelesswanderer:


Yeah we won't forget 2007's surprise either. Now 2006 that was a good year. :)
Yes, 06 was tranquil, except for the maybe the panhandle and South Georgia. They were flooded by Tropical Storm Alberto in 94, and in 06 the were whacked with another Alberto.
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I just looked at the satellite for the west coast my god the storm is huge.
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Quoting homelesswanderer:


This getting unbelievable. Granted I'm no expert in earthquake frequency but I remember saying days ago that this seems like a whole lot of them. And they're still coming.


From USGS

The earth's most active seismic feature, the circum-Pacific seismic belt, brushes Alaska and the Aleutian Islands, where more earthquakes occur than in the other 49 States combined. More than 80 percent of the planet's tremors occur in the circum-Pacific belt, and about six percent of the large, shallow earthquakes are in the Alaska area, where as many as 4,000 earthquake at various depths are detected in a year.
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Quoting WaterWitch11:


Hi everyone

I fully expect Alaska to have a large one.


This getting unbelievable. Granted I'm no expert in earthquake frequency but I remember saying days ago that this seems like a whole lot of them. And they're still coming.
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not convinced its going that far south...I think Central Caribbean...by the way any signs of even a closed anything in it?
Member Since: August 24, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 439
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Once again, 2007 is forgotten. :)
*cough* Dean, Felix Category 5 landfalls, 15 named storms *cough*


Yeah we won't forget 2007's surprise either. Now 2006 that was a good year. :)
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Quoting Dakster:


yes, now about 45 minutes ago a 5.2...

--- PcolaDan - Good thing you don't live next to Orcasystems....


Hi everyone

I fully expect Alaska to have a large one.
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Quoting weatherbro:
next week the deep trough over the eastern two-thirds should put the final nail on the coffin for the GOM.:)


I hope so. This is all I can find today. They were saying a secondary push would send this front south and east.

GMZ089-080930-
SYNOPSIS FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO
1030 PM CDT WED OCT 07 2009

.SYNOPSIS...RIDGE ALONG 25N DRIFT N TO 27N THROUGH FRI THEN
WEAKEN AND MOVE E AHEAD OF COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE OFF TEXAS
COAST FRI. FRONT WILL STALL LATE SAT FROM SE LOUISIANA AND
DISSIPATE ON SUN.


From Houston

MARINE...
SCA UP FOR ALL WATERS. THE STRONG ONSHORE WILL CONTINUE INTO
TOMORROW MORNING THEN AS THE FRONT NEARS THE WINDS SHOULD RELAX.
SCA MAY NEED EXTENDING THROUGH 12-15Z. OFFSHORE FLOW IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT SHOULDN`T BE THAT STRONG THOUGH THE PERSISTENT
SOUTHEASTERLY SWELL WILL MAKE FOR SOME ROUGH WATERS. FRONT SHOULD
COME BACK AS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY BUT STILL QUESTIONABLE ABOUT HOW
FAR NORTH IT WILL GET


From Lake Charles

SATURDAY WILL BE A COOL DAY WITH OF AND ON SHOWERS EXPECTED AS THE
FRONT STALLS IN THE NORTHERN GULF.
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Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129457
Quoting cybergrump:
The center of henri looks like it has stalled???


i was wondering the same thing
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632. JLPR
even if Henri is officially dead
its LLC is still alive, check out the obvious wind shift related to Henri


looks like its going to be a hot weekend in northern PR with that wind shift
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92L Early Track Guidance

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129457
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Once again, 2007 is forgotten. :)
*cough* Dean, Felix Category 5 landfalls, 15 named storms *cough*
my bad, I was referring to the U.S. Humberto was the only storm of consequence in 07.
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92L continuing to steadily get better organized.
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Quoting hydrus:
It is good to have a break after 04, 05 and 08.


Once again, 2007 is forgotten. :)
*cough* Dean, Felix Category 5 landfalls, 15 named storms *cough*
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24553

Hurricane Juan near peak intensity

Formed October 26, 1985
Dissipated November 1, 1985
Highest
winds
85 mph (140 km/h) (1-minute sustained)
Lowest pressure 971 mbar (hPa; 28.67 inHg)
Fatalities 24 direct
Damage $1.5 billion (1985 USD)
$3 billion (2009 USD)
Areas
affected Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Florida Panhandle

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129457
next week the deep trough over the eastern two-thirds should put the final nail on the coffin for the GOM.:)
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TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT THU OCT 8 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS ISSUED THE LAST ADVISORY ON
TROPICAL DEPRESSION HENRI...LOCATED ABOUT 165 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST
OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. REGENERATION OF THIS SYSTEM
APPEARS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS
SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER
FZNT01 KWBC.

1. A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE CENTERED ABOUT 200 MILES EAST OF THE
SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS SYSTEM IS SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION.
HOWEVER...DEVELOPMENT IS NOT ANTICIPATED BEFORE IT INTERACTS WITH
NORTHEASTERN SOUTH AMERICA LATER TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. THERE IS A
LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AT 20 TO 25 MPH. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS AND NORTHERN VENEZUELA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BEVEN
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Quoting StormW:
92L should start heading more westerly in about 6 hours.


Good Evening Senior Chief.

Hopefully 92L heads into SA and not south of Cuba into the bathtub.
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Interactive map for US tidal gauges - NOAA/CO-OPS ODIN

From last week - NOAA Tide Gauges Measure September 29, 2009 Samoa Tsunami
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Quoting Patrap:


With all the Tsunami and Bad Typhoon Pacific Mojo...the Atlantic season has brought nothing in comparison.

A nice Quiet EL Nino enhanced Atlantic..

Always Priceless.
It is good to have a break after 04, 05 and 08.
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Quoting aquak9:


But...no news on any tsunamis, so I'm guessing there haven't been any?

Anyone?


From AP story I read earlier today:
"The Pacific Tsunami Warning Center issued a regional tsunami warning after a quake with a magnitude of 7.8 struck 183 miles (294 kilometers) northwest of the Vanuatu island of Santo at a depth of 21 miles (35 kilometers). Within an hour, two other temblors of magnitude 7.7 and 7.3 followed.

The Hawaii-based center canceled the warnings after sea-level readings indicated that the wave generated by the quakes was too small -- just 0.3 feet (0.1 meter) at Luganville on the Vanuatu island nearest the quakes -- to cause much damage."
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619. xcool
looking at 92L
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
The center of henri looks like it has stalled???
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92L is another invest that has a tough road ahead. Conditions are just not that good to get something really spinning up anywhere in the Atlantic for that matter. I have never seen so many obstacles in a season before. A big MJO pulse wouldn't make a bit of difference right now. It really is looking like there will not be any big surprises in the Atlantic for the remainder of the season. The western Atlantic and Caribbean have been shut down for months now. Most likely we are dealing with one of the most inactive seasons on record. I know things can change quick in the tropics but i don't think that is happening this year. Mother nature is stubborn and wants the 2009 hurricane season to end quickly.
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Quoting aquak9:
Thanks, Patrap. Guess if the media's not going wild over it, then no news is good news.


With all the Tsunami and Bad Typhoon Pacific Mojo...the Atlantic season has brought nothing in comparison.

A nice Quiet EL Nino enhanced Atlantic..

Always Priceless.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129457


image centred at 11.5n/55.8w
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Thanks, Patrap. Guess if the media's not going wild over it, then no news is good news.
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92L
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Quoting StormW:
92L should start heading more westerly in about 6 hours.
If it does not turn west in 6 hours , that could make a big difference later on.
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het dakster; thanks for the reply. i can follow the quakes on the USGS site ok, saw a coupla more biggies this morning.

But...no news on any tsunamis, so I'm guessing there haven't been any?

Anyone?
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Quoting PcolaDan:


We know her.
lol.
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606. KBH
rains have already started in the south not heavy as yet, but some gusty winds as well
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Quoting aquak9:
Did they get any tsunamis from the quakes in the last 24 hours?

I see SoCal, Baja is reacting, albeit weakly, some threes and a rare 4 something.

Usually just low threes and below in that region. Expected Alaska to respond, not SoCal.


yes, now about 45 minutes ago a 5.2...

--- PcolaDan - Good thing you don't live next to Orcasystems....
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You funny PD... :(


Seismic Monitor

AOI

AOI

Humor in Comments
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26512
Did they get any tsunamis from the quakes in the last 24 hours?

I see SoCal, Baja is reacting, albeit weakly, some threes and a rare 4 something.

Usually just low threes and below in that region. Expected Alaska to respond, not SoCal.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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