Henri nearly dead

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:38 PM GMT on October 08, 2009

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Tropical Depression Henri continues to suffer from high wind shear of 20 knots, and appears on its way to dissipation. Visible satellite loops show that the shear has exposed Henri's low level center to view, and this center has become less circular and not as well defined. Henri's heavy thunderstorms have been shrinking in areal coverage and intensity, and are displaced from the center--signs of a highly sheared tropical storm that has little time left to live.

All of the reliable global computer models show weakening and dissipation of Henri by Friday, due to high wind shear. Wind shear in the vicinity of Henri's remains is predicted to fall to the moderate range by Saturday, but at that time it appears that the storm will be moving over the Dominican Republic, which will disrupt whatever is left of the storm's circulation. Henri's remains may bring heavy rains of 2 - 4 inches the the Dominican Republic and Haiti Saturday through Monday. By Tuesday, the remains of Henri will likely be moving across Florida and/or Cuba and into the Gulf of Mexico, where we will need to watch the system for re-development.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Henri (top) and a new tropical wave we're watching (bottom). The tropical wave south of Henri, just off the coast of South America, has become disorganized.

Tropical wave south of Henri
A tropical wave south of Henri, just north of the coast of South America and a few hundred miles east-southeast of the southernmost Lesser Antilles Islands, has grown less organized since yesterday. Both the areal coverage and intensity of the heavy thunderstorm activity has decreased, and there are no signs of organization to the cloud pattern. This wave is under about 10 knots of wind shear, but is too close to the Equator to be able to take advantage of the Earth's spin to help it spin up into a tropical depression very quickly. Also, the wave may pull in some dry, stable air from South America as it scoots just north of the coast over the next few days. NHC is giving this disturbance a low (less than 30% chance) or developing into a tropical depression by Saturday. There are no computer models showing development of this system.


Figure 2. Tropical Storm Parma (left) and Typhoon Melor (right) on October 7, 2009. At the time, Melor was a Category 4 typhoon with 135 mph winds, and Parma was a tropical storm with 60 mph winds. The two storms were close enough together that they rotated around a common center counter-clockwise, in an interaction known as the Fujiwara Effect. This forced Parma to reverse course and pass over the Philippines from west to east, after the storm had already crossed the islands from east to west. Now that Melor is gone, Parma is crossing the Philippines once more from east to west. Image credit: NASA Earth Observatory.

Typhoon Melor
Typhoon Melor made landfall yesterday on Japan's Honshu Island south of Osaka as a Category 1 typhoon with 85 mph winds. The typhoon killed two people and caused some moderate damage to the coastal region of southern Japan where it came ashore.

In the Philippines, Tropical Depression Parma is making its third traverse over the Philippines' Luzon Island. is expected to dump up to six more inches of rain today over the already sodden portions of northern Luzon. The storm is being blamed for 22 deaths and millions in agricultural damage.

Jeff Masters

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sheartendency
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11314
Patrap,

Thanks for the heads-up.

It has been hot (well, others have been complaining ;-) ) for a few weeks here, even in the evenings.

Mind you, our hot is the 90's in the day (Farenheit lol)

But unusually, breeze has been absent.

Kind of points to something building up as well as giving a good environment to develop.

92L seems to be pulling together a bit this evening, no? Convection has focused in one area, instead of being all over the place.

Night.
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Quoting superpete:
We'll have to catch up sometime then?I'm out for now to dinner so have a good evening/back later...
Sounds good .
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Nighty night all, take care. Time for shut eye.
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Quoting bajelayman2:
Patrap, thanks for that link.

When the satellite photo is 'rocked', looks as if the strong area will pass just to the east and north of Barbados, partially over us.

We are at 13.1, thus I am looking at the 'centre' if one can call it that, passing about 13.5 / 59.4.

Maybe...the convection seems to be moving around a bit.


You should see a Change in Weather for sure there.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 128216
Quoting Greyelf:


I actually had pondered this same thing quite some time back after there had been a good number of Pacific storms and large quakes occurring in the affected areas shortly afterward. I actually took the time to email a professor who was at one of the Texas universities (can't remember which now and haven't saved the email. I also can't remember why I sent it to that particular professor, but suspect it was because I plucked his name from some internet reference when I tried to Google any articles regarding links to earthquake and atmosphere pressure change.) Anyway, as I recall, the professor replied he had no recall that such a study had ever been done (at that time). It seemed he had never considered the correlation, but that seemed odd to me. Maybe he was just the wrong one to ask.


Hey greyelf, firstly I am an amateur at this.

That forewarned, I am one of those who think that the Earth as a whole, must have interactions within and by its parts, thus everything is linked. The correlations will have to be worked out.
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Ok, Waterwitch11, it appears that 2 1/2 years of time muddies my memory quite a bit. The email I received was from Lind S. Gee and he actually was at UC Berkley. (Perhaps the Texas memory was an email suggestion of someone else for me to contact...)

Anyway, here's a link to what I posted in Dr. Master's blog regarding this question on July 16, 2007 (post #293). Link
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Quoting Patrap:
Western North Atlantic
Layer Mean Wind Analyses
Evening Friend
Member Since: August 25, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 633
Patrap, thanks for that link.

When the satellite photo is 'rocked', looks as if the strong area will pass just to the east and north of Barbados, partially over us.

We are at 13.1, thus I am looking at the 'centre' if one can call it that, passing about 13.5 / 59.4.

Maybe...the convection seems to be moving around a bit.
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
East End. John Mclean Drive.
We'll have to catch up sometime then?I'm out for now to dinner so have a good evening/back later...
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Quoting WaterWitch11:

I feel at times pressure in the atmosphere plays a role and that's has only increased my concern for alaska.


I actually had pondered this same thing quite some time back after there had been a good number of Pacific storms and large quakes occurring in the affected areas shortly afterward. I actually took the time to email a professor who was at one of the Texas universities (can't remember which now and haven't saved the email. I also can't remember why I sent it to that particular professor, but suspect it was because I plucked his name from some internet reference when I tried to Google any articles regarding links to earthquake and atmosphere pressure change.) Anyway, as I recall, the professor replied he had no recall that such a study had ever been done (at that time). It seemed he had never considered the correlation, but that seemed odd to me. Maybe he was just the wrong one to ask.
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Western North Atlantic
Layer Mean Wind Analyses
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 128216
Hiya Chief,..92L interesting critter
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 128216
92L will clear SA, where does it head after this wnw movement? W,WNW, NW?, probably between W & wnw, not Good!!,jmo
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YES!

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92L JSL Image




Loop,92L JSL
TFP's not available

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 128216
Hmmm no wonder you said it would resume a more westerly course in about 6 hours.
Member Since: September 6, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 3717
nothing left of henri to regenerate or move anywhere! That is great news. yoohoo! NHC sure knows there stuff, Good job. The wave to the south has a similar fate; the fat lady is singing, and we are all happy!
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Quoting superpete:
Sorry..I posted but missed you.North Sound Estates (on the canal) and you?
East End. John Mclean Drive.
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Quoting Patrap:

"666". hydrus 8:07 PM CDT on October 08, 2009


OMG..the Anti-Blog Post..!

Im out...
My affiliation with the Almighty will save me....
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Quoting pottery:
92L will be dropping plenty rain on Barbados tonight.
Very little rain in Trinidad/Tobago today.
The main area of the system will probably remain north of T/T.



Hi Pottery,

I thought so too this afternoon.

Thing is, lots of cloud pass per satellite, but not much rain yet, and the area that seems intense, seems to be pushing northeast, as if it MIGHT pass just east of us?

But, I agree, early bets are that it will pass over us.
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"666". hydrus 8:07 PM CDT on October 08, 2009


OMG..the Anti-Blog Post..!

Im out...
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 128216
Quoting StormW:
Good evening!


Evening Storm! :)
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Quoting StormW:
Good evening!


Evening!!! I didn't even know you left.
Member Since: September 6, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 3717
Storm do you still think 92l will make it to 13-14n ?
Member Since: September 6, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 3717
Quoting ElConando:
slow night here 92l not excitement enough for yall?
Good evening El-Conando, so what is your prediction for 92L?
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Quoting homelesswanderer:


Ah, ok. Sorry didn't know about that one. I bet they're not looking forward to 2012 either.
Not if it is a neutral year in the Pacific and a busy year in the Atlantic Basin. :)
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665. xcool



Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15669
slow night here 92l not excitement enough for yall?
Member Since: September 6, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 3717
Quoting hydrus:
Yes, 06 was tranquil, except for the maybe the panhandle and South Georgia. They were flooded by Tropical Storm Alberto in 94, and in 06 the were whacked with another Alberto.


Ah, ok. Sorry didn't know about that one. I bet they're not looking forward to 2012 either.
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92L will be dropping plenty rain on Barbados tonight.
Very little rain in Trinidad/Tobago today.
The main area of the system will probably remain north of T/T.

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Quoting Patrap:
Mayan Calenders are selling briskly...

"and from the cave of oracles,I could hear the preistess shrieking;that she and I,would surely die,and never live again"

A.E.Houseman
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Quoting Weather456:


Can I have a link that NINO graph.


Sorry 456, just got back.
http://iri.columbia.edu/climate/ENSO/currentinfo/figure2.gif
BTW if you right click any graphic & select properties, it will give it to you.
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642. PcolaDan 7:29 PM CDT on October 08, 2009

Thanks Dan. Brings it into perspective. I've seen footage of the Anchorage earthquake before. Horrible. I guess like someone said earlier if it's not in the news most people, including me, don't know how active things get.

646. WaterWitch11

Thanks. And that is a nasty looking storm out there.

Quoting Patrap:
Mayan Calenders are selling briskly..

Lol. Calenders don't do me any good. I never know what day it is. Usually someone tells me days later what I missed. But...oh no, nobody will be left to tell me! I can see it now. Me stumbling around on 12/22/12 wondering "Where'd everybody go?" Lol.
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
I asked last night but didn't see a reply. What part of Cayman do you live ?
Sorry..I posted but missed you.North Sound Estates (on the canal) and you?
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Quoting superpete:
Once it gets to the central Caribbean the next stop is 19 N 81 W...
I asked last night but didn't see a reply. What part of Cayman do you live ?
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Quoting aquak9:
Did they get any tsunamis from the quakes in the last 24 hours?

I see SoCal, Baja is reacting, albeit weakly, some threes and a rare 4 something.

Usually just low threes and below in that region. Expected Alaska to respond, not SoCal.


you know i don't even want think about one hitting southern california
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Quoting 19N81W:
not convinced its going that far south...I think Central Caribbean...by the way any signs of even a closed anything in it?
Once it gets to the central Caribbean the next stop is 19 N 81 W...
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waterwitch- my post 602- I agree, still expecting Alaska to respond
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653. xcool
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15669
Quoting PcolaDan:


This one?



The next one....the one bearing the remanants of Melor, will hit the Pac NW late Monday/Tues. it looks like its going to be pretty big.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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