Henri nearly dead

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:38 PM GMT on October 08, 2009

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Tropical Depression Henri continues to suffer from high wind shear of 20 knots, and appears on its way to dissipation. Visible satellite loops show that the shear has exposed Henri's low level center to view, and this center has become less circular and not as well defined. Henri's heavy thunderstorms have been shrinking in areal coverage and intensity, and are displaced from the center--signs of a highly sheared tropical storm that has little time left to live.

All of the reliable global computer models show weakening and dissipation of Henri by Friday, due to high wind shear. Wind shear in the vicinity of Henri's remains is predicted to fall to the moderate range by Saturday, but at that time it appears that the storm will be moving over the Dominican Republic, which will disrupt whatever is left of the storm's circulation. Henri's remains may bring heavy rains of 2 - 4 inches the the Dominican Republic and Haiti Saturday through Monday. By Tuesday, the remains of Henri will likely be moving across Florida and/or Cuba and into the Gulf of Mexico, where we will need to watch the system for re-development.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Henri (top) and a new tropical wave we're watching (bottom). The tropical wave south of Henri, just off the coast of South America, has become disorganized.

Tropical wave south of Henri
A tropical wave south of Henri, just north of the coast of South America and a few hundred miles east-southeast of the southernmost Lesser Antilles Islands, has grown less organized since yesterday. Both the areal coverage and intensity of the heavy thunderstorm activity has decreased, and there are no signs of organization to the cloud pattern. This wave is under about 10 knots of wind shear, but is too close to the Equator to be able to take advantage of the Earth's spin to help it spin up into a tropical depression very quickly. Also, the wave may pull in some dry, stable air from South America as it scoots just north of the coast over the next few days. NHC is giving this disturbance a low (less than 30% chance) or developing into a tropical depression by Saturday. There are no computer models showing development of this system.


Figure 2. Tropical Storm Parma (left) and Typhoon Melor (right) on October 7, 2009. At the time, Melor was a Category 4 typhoon with 135 mph winds, and Parma was a tropical storm with 60 mph winds. The two storms were close enough together that they rotated around a common center counter-clockwise, in an interaction known as the Fujiwara Effect. This forced Parma to reverse course and pass over the Philippines from west to east, after the storm had already crossed the islands from east to west. Now that Melor is gone, Parma is crossing the Philippines once more from east to west. Image credit: NASA Earth Observatory.

Typhoon Melor
Typhoon Melor made landfall yesterday on Japan's Honshu Island south of Osaka as a Category 1 typhoon with 85 mph winds. The typhoon killed two people and caused some moderate damage to the coastal region of southern Japan where it came ashore.

In the Philippines, Tropical Depression Parma is making its third traverse over the Philippines' Luzon Island. is expected to dump up to six more inches of rain today over the already sodden portions of northern Luzon. The storm is being blamed for 22 deaths and millions in agricultural damage.

Jeff Masters

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Looks like ex-Henri & 92l have merged.
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751. xcool





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Quoting cchsweatherman:


Just a straight west motion for several days across the Southern Caribbean.
Ok thanks.
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749. beell
And that's probably the main thing, atmo. 92L is bringing moisture with it. Sometimes not a good idea to infer steering from a sounding right in the middle of your area of interest-it may not be representative of the flow (speed and direction) the thing is embedded in. But in this case, easterly flow from this morning as well in Barbados.

Dry air may still be a factor later.

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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Which would result in what for 92L ?


Just a straight west motion for several days across the Southern Caribbean.
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Quoting iluvjess:


ditto... It's so hard to say that but for about 3 hrs this Saturday night, I'm a Tigers fan.

But they likely will only play well for one. You know their MO...show up to play, finally, in the 4th.

(Note to Les Miles: It really would be OK to have the whole team play well sometime in the first half.)
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12463
Quoting beell:
These soundings are about 3 hrs old.

00Z 10/9 Sounding-Barbados
Moist all the way through the column. 92L is not moisture starved yet.
25-30knots easterly flow all the way up except for a slight cyclonic turn/break near 500-600mb.


00Z 10/09 Sounding-Trinidad
No lack of moisture near the wave here either.
20knots from the E almost all the way up-again with the break at 500-600mb


May not want to put a lot of faith in the upper air soundings from Jamaica. 224 knots from the west at 500mb may be incorrect!


This one is probably a little closer to the truth.
00Z 10/09 Sounding-Caymans
A lot drier
Still with the easterly flow and stronger at the upper levels

The Barbados sounding was a lot drier this morning.
And Guadeloupe had issues with wind speed, but not on the order of Jamaica's.
"224 knots from the west at 500mb may be incorrect!"
Nah, that's probably correct...
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12463
Quoting cchsweatherman:
Just have to say WOW to how impressive and how strong this high pressure ridge over Florida and the GOM looks in the latest steering current map.

Which would result in what for 92L ?
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Quoting atmoaggie:

Oh my.

(Quoted so you cannot edit it.)


Just looked them up on the web.. appears they have a better team then the Bucs :)
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743. beell
These soundings are about 3 hrs old.

00Z 10/9 Sounding-Barbados
Moist all the way through the column. 92L is not moisture starved yet.
25-30knots easterly flow all the way up except for a slight cyclonic turn/break near 500-600mb.


00Z 10/09 Sounding-Trinidad
No lack of moisture near the wave here either.
20knots from the E almost all the way up-again with the break at 500-600mb


May not want to put a lot of faith in the upper air soundings from Jamaica. 224 knots from the west at 500mb may be incorrect!


This one is probably a little closer to the truth.
00Z 10/09 Sounding-Caymans
A lot drier
Still with the easterly flow and stronger at the upper levels
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Just have to say WOW to how impressive and how strong this high pressure ridge over Florida and the GOM looks in the latest steering current map.

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Quoting presslord:
I'm gonna say this once...and only once...

...it is only because of the high regard in which I hold, Pat, tkeith, and atmo...


...geaux tigers...

...those who know me will know how painful that was for me...

Oh my.

(Quoted so you cannot edit it.)
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12463
Quoting WeatherStudent:


awesome, sir. i guess this means that we've doged yet anotehr bullet, then? :)
Not necessarily as you should know by now that things are constantly changing.
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Quoting StormW:


All going to depend on forward speed Stef. Right now, with the change in the steering layers forecast from yesterday, 92L may stay south, but posibly a tad further north than the model guidance...in any event, it would have to make it to the western Caribbean, or into the GOMEX around mid month. Unless the steering forecast changes, looks slim at the current moment for either one. This season is the most I've seen steering change so often.


Ok. Thank you. :) I wouldn't want to see one collide with an upward MJO in that hot water. And this season has been an odd one. But it hasn't been boring. Frustrating but not boring. Lol.
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737. beell
24 Hr Obs
Barbados
Trinidad
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Quoting Greyelf:
Ok, Waterwitch11, it appears that 2 1/2 years of time muddies my memory quite a bit. The email I received was from Lind S. Gee and he actually was at UC Berkley. (Perhaps the Texas memory was an email suggestion of someone else for me to contact...)

Anyway, here's a link to what I posted in Dr. Master's blog regarding this question on July 16, 2007 (post #293). Link


hi,
i had to step out for a few. this is a hard argument. how can anyone really know? get a room full of scientist and geologist and they will all have there own theories. sometimes you just have to see things for what they are and create your own opinion. I was happy to see your posts and your contact with that professor. Be interesting to what a geologist would say, I know there some out there who do think there is a relation.
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735. xcool
redwagon .yeah .i hope get rain
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Quoting Weather456:


For me, 2009 has been more interesting than 2006.


The Atlantic have become a lecherous place. These systems need to start dressing themselves and stop swirling naked.
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Quoting TheoJesse:
Presslord
How about Roll Tide or War Eagle?
Jesse



...well....if you put a gun to my head...and forced me to choose...

I'd have to say "Roll Tide!"
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Not too much going on tonight so will sign off for now. Have a good evening all.
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xcool, so far there are only four tornado warnings for this front, but I suppose as more Mexican moisture pumps in it will get dicey for most of TX.
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727. beell
Quoting OSUWXGUY:


Confused by your statement here... If Futuremet said that 92L was moving under a ridge he either meant that 92L was moving to the west south of the ridge that is centered near Florida, or if he meant it as you took it and it actually moved under a ridge aloft, then he'd be incorrect. 92L is on the periphery of the ridge and is not in a subsident environment due to the ridge.


So your saying the outflow around the periphery of a strong upper ridge is not a subsident environment?
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Quoting OSUWXGUY:


Gotcha.. Probably why I shouldn't comment when I'm not sure what he said.

Henri is dying in a subsident environment...but it's not ridging...it's actually under a trough (TUTT).

The air is converging into the trough aloft..causing subsidence.


Do you mind showing the exact location of the TUTT?

thanks
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Quoting StormW:
Update:

Current satellite loop imagery indicates the ridge over Florida has shifted east somehwat, and has expanded, placing the ridge a little farther eastward and sooner than forecast. 92L should now begin to move in a more westerly fashion in about the next 2-3 hours.

DVORAK LOOP


Earlier it looked like whatever is at 15n/70w wanted to spin up. Of course that may be an Ull for all I know. Whatever it is didn't look sheared to me any way. Is the MJO showing up when and where 92L is going? I've heard some saying it will some saying not.
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Quoting Chicklit:
Hi Kman.
Nothing at the surface.


Hi Chicklit

I looked at the lower level convergence map and there was the faintest signature of that. The 850 vort was also barely evident. This is not a system that is threatening to be a TD overnight.
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Weather456 said Henri not 92L.


Gotcha.. Probably why I shouldn't comment when I'm not sure what he said.

Henri is dying in a subsident environment...but it's not ridging...it's actually under a trough (TUTT).

The air is converging into the trough aloft..causing subsidence.
wow This is incredulous, I never that the air was that dry air. RIP Henri

That is one strong high....

Link
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Hi Kman.
Nothing at the surface.
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720. ackee
early model runs seem like 92L will track like felix did any thoughts
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Good evening.

Well, on to 92L.

No 850 mb vorticity, no signs of a surface low as per the partial QS pass and about to enter the Eastern Caribbean. All the above would tend to suggest no organization until at least 70W.

This one is a fast mover which will also tend to inhibit organization. There is a "spin" based upon the IR2 shortwave loop but this is well above the surface.

Not an immediate threat IMO
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Presslord
How about Roll Tide or War Eagle?
Jesse
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Quoting OSUWXGUY:


Confused by your statement here... If Futuremet said that 92L was moving under a ridge he either meant that 92L was moving to the west south of the ridge that is centered near Florida, or if he meant it as you took it and it actually moved under a ridge aloft, then he'd be incorrect. 92L is on the periphery of the ridge and is not in a subsident environment due to the ridge.


just got here...so I am not sure what is going on


I said that these deep layered ridges act to steer tropical cyclones rather than helping them develop, due to their influence at the lower levels. The subtropical ridge itself is not favorable for tropical cyclogenesis, for it causes subsidence in the mid-levels and lower. A high that is below 500mb is ideal, for it won't cause so much a cap can inhibit thunderstorm activity.


Henri is moving into a stable dry air mass. It will advect the drier air into its center....committing suicide.
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Quoting OSUWXGUY:


Confused by your statement here... If Futuremet said that 92L was moving under a ridge he either meant that 92L was moving to the west south of the ridge that is centered near Florida, or if he meant it as you took it and it actually moved under a ridge aloft, then he'd be incorrect. 92L is on the periphery of the ridge and is not in a subsident environment due to the ridge.
Weather456 said Henri not 92L.
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Quoting Greyelf:


I actually had pondered this same thing quite some time back after there had been a good number of Pacific storms and large quakes occurring in the affected areas shortly afterward. I actually took the time to email a professor who was at one of the Texas universities (can't remember which now and haven't saved the email. I also can't remember why I sent it to that particular professor, but suspect it was because I plucked his name from some internet reference when I tried to Google any articles regarding links to earthquake and atmosphere pressure change.) Anyway, as I recall, the professor replied he had no recall that such a study had ever been done (at that time). It seemed he had never considered the correlation, but that seemed odd to me. Maybe he was just the wrong one to ask.


I was thinking about this the other day and googling my fingers off, mostly to no avail. Of course entering "earthquakes and pressure" never crossed my mind. I was thinking it had to be more than a coincidence that seismic activity and storms seem to happen in the general area and at a similar time. But as you said I could find no studies of it. The night Rita was coming ashore there was a 5.0 quake in the SW GOM. And Rita was a very low pressure storm come to think of it. Also on September 10, 2006 there was a 6.0 quake in the gulf off the SW FL. coast. At that time there were two Atlantic storms on the other side of FL. Hurricane Florence with a pressure of 980 on that day. And Hurricane Gordon as a 1012 TD at the time. I'm not sure exactly where in their tracks they were on the 10th. But it does seem like there has got to be a correlation somewhere. And as far as I know there are no faults in the gulf. I could be wrong though
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713. xcool



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Quoting presslord:
I'm gonna say this once...and only once...

...it is only because of the high regard in which I hold, Pat, tkeith, and atmo...


...geaux tigers...

...those who know me will know how painful that was for me...


ditto... It's so hard to say that but for about 3 hrs this Saturday night, I'm a Tigers fan.
I'm gonna say this once...and only once...

...it is only because of the high regard in which I hold, Pat, tkeith, and atmo...


...geaux tigers...

...those who know me will know how painful that was for me...
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Quoting Weather456:


To add to that, futuremet made an excellent point that Henri might be heading more under a deep layer ridge which suppresses the cyclone ability to produce deep convection by placing a cap over.


Confused by your statement here... If Futuremet said that 92L was moving under a ridge he either meant that 92L was moving to the west south of the ridge that is centered near Florida, or if he meant it as you took it and it actually moved under a ridge aloft, then he'd be incorrect. 92L is on the periphery of the ridge and is not in a subsident environment due to the ridge.


Seismic Monitor

AOI

AOI

Humor in Comments
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Quasi-Felix

Image and video hosting by TinyPic
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Drop by...say "Hi!"...all are welcome...even atmo...

Link
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Patrap called my attention to the Cajun Navy today.
Here's a graphic article that tells an uncensored tale of what it was like seeing Katrina's underbelly.
HurricaneGumbo
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705. ackee
quick poll will 92L be
A TW
B TD
C TS

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Off topic but those auto insurance commercials crack me up... "Drivers that changed to Acme Auto Insurance saved an average of $500 per year." Well duh! Would anyone change if they weren't saving money? OK Back on topic.
Quoting ElConando:


I don't really agree with the graveyard theory, its the conditions that count, granted storms develop quite slowly in the Eastern Caribbean.


Agreed that it's the conditions that count. But the eastern Caribbean is a graveyard for a reason. The climatology, or mean conditions, are for the low level flow to be fast, making it a difficult place for an open wave to close off its circulation.

Well, with the strong ridging centered near Florida, the actual conditions will be the climatological conditions.

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.