Henri nearly dead

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:38 PM GMT on October 08, 2009

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Tropical Depression Henri continues to suffer from high wind shear of 20 knots, and appears on its way to dissipation. Visible satellite loops show that the shear has exposed Henri's low level center to view, and this center has become less circular and not as well defined. Henri's heavy thunderstorms have been shrinking in areal coverage and intensity, and are displaced from the center--signs of a highly sheared tropical storm that has little time left to live.

All of the reliable global computer models show weakening and dissipation of Henri by Friday, due to high wind shear. Wind shear in the vicinity of Henri's remains is predicted to fall to the moderate range by Saturday, but at that time it appears that the storm will be moving over the Dominican Republic, which will disrupt whatever is left of the storm's circulation. Henri's remains may bring heavy rains of 2 - 4 inches the the Dominican Republic and Haiti Saturday through Monday. By Tuesday, the remains of Henri will likely be moving across Florida and/or Cuba and into the Gulf of Mexico, where we will need to watch the system for re-development.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Henri (top) and a new tropical wave we're watching (bottom). The tropical wave south of Henri, just off the coast of South America, has become disorganized.

Tropical wave south of Henri
A tropical wave south of Henri, just north of the coast of South America and a few hundred miles east-southeast of the southernmost Lesser Antilles Islands, has grown less organized since yesterday. Both the areal coverage and intensity of the heavy thunderstorm activity has decreased, and there are no signs of organization to the cloud pattern. This wave is under about 10 knots of wind shear, but is too close to the Equator to be able to take advantage of the Earth's spin to help it spin up into a tropical depression very quickly. Also, the wave may pull in some dry, stable air from South America as it scoots just north of the coast over the next few days. NHC is giving this disturbance a low (less than 30% chance) or developing into a tropical depression by Saturday. There are no computer models showing development of this system.


Figure 2. Tropical Storm Parma (left) and Typhoon Melor (right) on October 7, 2009. At the time, Melor was a Category 4 typhoon with 135 mph winds, and Parma was a tropical storm with 60 mph winds. The two storms were close enough together that they rotated around a common center counter-clockwise, in an interaction known as the Fujiwara Effect. This forced Parma to reverse course and pass over the Philippines from west to east, after the storm had already crossed the islands from east to west. Now that Melor is gone, Parma is crossing the Philippines once more from east to west. Image credit: NASA Earth Observatory.

Typhoon Melor
Typhoon Melor made landfall yesterday on Japan's Honshu Island south of Osaka as a Category 1 typhoon with 85 mph winds. The typhoon killed two people and caused some moderate damage to the coastal region of southern Japan where it came ashore.

In the Philippines, Tropical Depression Parma is making its third traverse over the Philippines' Luzon Island. is expected to dump up to six more inches of rain today over the already sodden portions of northern Luzon. The storm is being blamed for 22 deaths and millions in agricultural damage.

Jeff Masters

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801. DDR
Quoting StormW:

Good morning
Excellent pic stormW,some good rain here but no wind from 92L.
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It looks like 92L was in its latter stages of organization into a depression when it hit Trinidad. If it moves due west, it's over for this system. If it manages to move more WNW and get into the southern Caribbean later today, it's still a player IMO.
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Rather anti-climatic on the moon-boom thingy.
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yes stormpetrol that is the area i mentioned ealier. could be the next AOI
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Nice and rainy morning in Trinidad. Just mild, continuous showers here in the souhtern part of the island so far.
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796. IKE
SYNOPSIS FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO
430 AM CDT FRI OCT 09 2009

.SYNOPSIS...COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST LATER
TODAY. FRONT STALLS SAT AND SUN FROM S CENTRAL LOUISIANA TO NW
BAY OF CAMPECHE THEN DRIFT N OVER COAST MON AND S AGAIN
OVER N GULF TUE.



SYNOPSIS FOR CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC FROM 07N TO 22N
BETWEEN 55W AND 65W
530 AM EDT FRI OCT 09 2009

.SYNOPSIS...REMNANT LOW OF HENRI NEAR 21N63W MOVING WNW 10 KT.
WILL MOVE W OF THE AREA LATER TODAY. TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 81W
MOVE W ACROSS SW CARIBBEAN TONIGHT AND THROUGH GULF OF HONDURAS
SAT. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 61W WILL MOVE TO 70W SAT 82W
MON AND MOVE THROUGH GULF OF HONDURAS TUE.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
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Good morning...
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8 mins til impact.
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morning
the tropics this morning is not showing much, except the remnants of Henri and the slow progress of 92L. the much anticipated rainfal from this system over the windwards, did not materialised. however my attention is now focused on area in the eastern atlantic, which could be last shot of something forming from this area. the eastern atlantic and the cape verde season is about over. the area of concern is embedded in the tropical wave at 30W. There is some cyclonic turning at the low levels. This morning QS showed a weak low near 7N 30W. shear is in the 10 knot range, but the area showes a weak 850 mb vorticity. the wave is moving to the west at 15 mph
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Moon crash in about 26 minutes on Nasa TV. Link
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786. IKE
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:

How kind and considerate of you to mention it. It certainly is a great honor, and a pleasant surprise to hear while watching the morning news and drinking our first cups of coffee here on the east coast, USA.


Ditto those comments.

Props to Obama.....
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
Good Morning,

Tropical Update
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Quoting barbamz:
Obama wins Nobel Peace Price

Congratulations from Germany!

How kind and considerate of you to mention it. It certainly is a great honor, and a pleasant surprise to hear while watching the morning news and drinking our first cups of coffee here on the east coast, USA.
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Hi everyone,
Come and visit my blog!
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Webicorders on the north side of volcano Redoubt show strange signals in the last half an hour. Collapse of the dome?

Link
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Quoting IKE:


Local area...panhandle of Florida...not going to get much in the way of a cool down early next week.

Where you're at....none.

Computer models are having a hard time with these cold fronts...


Thanks, gasp, hack, cough......

As usual, just have to wait till after Halloween!
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780. IKE
Quoting InTheCone:


Good Morning Ike, happy Friday!

I was looking at that and thinking - looks alot like Jimena- be interesting to see if it pans out.

I notice that you have not been posting much on any impending cold fronts, boy we could sure use one here in S. Fl., it is brutal!


Local area...panhandle of Florida...not going to get much in the way of a cool down early next week.

Where you're at....none.

Computer models are having a hard time with these cold fronts...
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
Quoting IKE:
00Z ECMWF shows 92L firing up into a significant system....in the east PAC.

Nothing else in the Atlantic through October 19th. That would leave 6 weeks left in the season.


Good Morning Ike, happy Friday!

I was looking at that and thinking - looks alot like Jimena- be interesting to see if it pans out.

I notice that you have not been posting much on any impending cold fronts, boy we could sure use one here in S. Fl., it is brutal!
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Did you guys hear about Tropical Cyclone Grace did a lot of damage in England, The Netherlands (my country) and Germany?
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776. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Philippines Atmospherical Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration

Tropical Depression "PEPENG" continues to move away from the country.

Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #37
=======================
At 5:00 p.m PhST, Tropical Depression Pepeng (Parma) located at 17.3ºN 119.1ºE or 130 kms west of Vigan City has 10 minute sustained winds of 55 km/h (30 kts)

Signal Warnings
==================

Signal Warning #1 (30-60 kph)

Luzon Region
1.Ilocos Norte
2.Ilocos Sur
3.La Union
4.Western Pangasinan

Additional Information
===========================
Public Storm Warning Signal elsewhere now lowered.

Residents in low-lying areas and near mountain slopes under signal #1 are advised to take all the necessary precautionary measures against flashfloods and landslides.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 P.M. today.
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775. IKE
00Z ECMWF shows 92L firing up into a significant system....in the east PAC.

Nothing else in the Atlantic through October 19th. That would leave 6 weeks left in the season.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
Obama wins Nobel Peace Price

Congratulations from Germany!
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This convection thta was displaced from East of Barbados, to over Trinidad, overnight.

To me this is not an actual system per se, but a large wave with convection sprouting up and dispering quickly, in various places.

That convection over Trinidad may just as easily disperse and sprout up somewhere else, just as easily, that is what it has been doing for the last few days.
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Everyone, visit my blog! It will welcome your predictions for the remainder of this hurricane season!

Anyway, the information was not updated for 92L from the Tropical Cyclone Guidance Message.
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Hi everyone.
I saw 92L, and it is certainly more circular than a couple of hours ago. (See post 751 for picture at 0300 UTC, and right now it is 0900 UTC.) But as JLPR said, it is very small and unless it grows some convection, the system will be very disrupted by land interaction.

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770. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #6
TROPICAL STORM NEPARTAK (T0919)
15:00 PM JST October 9 2009
==========================================

Subject: Category One Typhoon Near Marianas Island

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Nepartak (1000 hPa) located at 19.4N 142.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The storm is reported as moving north-northwest at 9 knots.

RSMC Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Gale Force Winds
==================
80 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
====================
24 HRS: 21.2N 141.9E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)
48 HRS: 21.9N 141.6E - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)
72 HRS: 22.0N 141.1E - 50 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm)
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768. JLPR
being so small interaction with land should disrupt it quite a bit



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Quoting ElConando:
what exactly does geaux mean?


Geaux (pronounced Go) is a play on the spelling of common surnames in La. (Arceneaux, Boudreaux, etc.)
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766. JLPR
92L is now tiny =P
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765. JLPR
Henri's moisture is all over the place xD
its raining outside :)
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Quoting AussieStorm:
90 dead in mountain landslide


BREAKING NEWS: MORE than 90 people have been killed in a series of landslides after heavy rain in mountainous provinces of northern Philippines.

More as it happens...



Was that caused by Parma?
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90 dead in mountain landslide


BREAKING NEWS: MORE than 90 people have been killed in a series of landslides after heavy rain in mountainous provinces of northern Philippines.

More as it happens...

Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15977
Massive surf seen off Sydney

WILD weather is generating huge seas off Sydney, and a rare opportunity for some extreme tow-in surfing as these pictures from Bronte today today show.

Gallery: Tow-in surfing at Bronte

And the wild weather is set to continue, according to forecasts from the Bureau of Meteorology, which say cold, windy and wet conditions will continue into the weekend.

The bureau is warning of dangerous surf conditions today and frequent heavy showers near the coast.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15977
oh boy guess everyone took off for the night. Well next 48-72 hrs 92l won't amount to much, atm it looks like at best it may become a TD or weak ts before hitting Central America.
Member Since: September 6, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 3784
what exactly does geaux mean?
Member Since: September 6, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 3784
Looks like ex-Henri and 02L have merged.

It looks like Henri's trying to, doesn't it?
---------------------
Nice CONUS/ATL loop:

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/wxloop.cgi?wv_east_enhanced+12
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758. xcool
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757. xcool


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756. JRRP
Quoting jurakantaino:
The swirl that is Henri now is heading SW towards Puerto Rico, nothing much left of it, though. Unless redevelopment occurs. 92L moving NW but convection diminishing at the moment.

to me looks like is moving west
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Heads Up for West Coast of North America:

If this hits the us in Boulder Creek in the middle of the Santa Cruz Mountains, it will be a "First Flush" after three years of drought and potentially very hazardous. Same goes (potentially very hazardous) for most of the West Coast wherever it hits, Mexico to Canada.


NWS Technical Weather Discussion

000
FXUS66 KMTR 082323
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA CA
423 PM PDT THU OCT 8 2009

...STRONG STORM SYSTEM ON TAP FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 2:00 PM PDT THURSDAY...SKIES ARE CLEAR ACROSS THE
DISTRICT. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS THE COAST FROM SAN MATEO NORTH WHERE
STRATUS IS STILL HANGING TOUGH. TEMPS ARE MAINLY IN THE 60S AND 70S
ACROSS THE DISTRICT. THE GRADIENT PICTURE IS SHOWING A WEAK NORTHERLY
GRADIENT OF 1.2 MB BETWEEN ARCATA-SFO AND A 1.0 MB ONSHORE FLOW
BETWEEN SFO-SAC.

WEAK RIDGING OVER THE PACIFIC WILL COMBINE WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TO BRING DRY AND MILD WEATHER TO THE
DISTRICT. WITH THE THERMAL TROF SETTING UP INLAND STRATUS SHOULD
SPREAD LOCALLY INLAND DURING THE NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS.

THE EXTRATROPICAL LOW...FORMER WESTERN PACIFIC TYPHOON MELOR...WILL
EJECT INTO THE WESTERLIES. THE INFLUX OF TROPICAL MOISTURE AND ENERGY
WILL INTENSIFY THE JET...WHICH WILL UNDERCUT THE RIDGE IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC. THE RIDGE CENTER WILL RETROGRADE TO NORTHERN ALASKA WITH THE
JET RACING TO THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST.

WARM ADVECTION/WARM FRONTAL RAINS WILL START ON MONDAY...SPREADING
SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT. THE WINDS COULD BEGIN TO PICK UP MONDAY AHEAD OF
THE RAIN. THIS COULD CAUSE BLOWING DUST AND DIRT FROM THE FIELDS
ACROSS ROADWAYS. RAIN AND WIND WILL INCREASE ON TUESDAY AND CONTINUE
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG THE 295K LEVEL
WITH 50+ KT UPGLIDE. TPW VALUES WILL BE GREATER THAN 1.5 INCHES. 925
MB WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 50+ KT...PERPENDICULAR TO THE HILLS. THE
POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...AS MUCH AS 1 TO 3 INCHES
ALONG THE COAST AND VALLEYS WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS TO 5 INCHES. THE
HILLS COULD SEE 3 TO 6 INCHES...WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS TO 8 INCHES.
FUTURE MODEL RUNS WILL HELP PINPOINT THE AREAS OF HEAVIEST RAIN. THE
GFS ENSEMBLES ARE SHOWING VERY LITTLE ENSEMBLE SPREAD AMONG ITS
MEMBERS...WHICH INCREASES THE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST...EVEN
THOUGH IT IS STILL FIVE DAYS AWAY.

THERE COULD STILL BE A FEW SHOWERS INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A FEW
DISTURBANCES RIDE ALONG THE FLOW INTO THE DISTRICT. DRY WEATHER
ONCE AGAIN RETURNS TO THE DISTRICT BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS A RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE PACIFIC

PUBLIC FORECAST: STROBIN
AVIATION/MARINE: LARRY

NWS ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO



Special Weather Statement

Statement as of 2:24 PM PDT on October 08, 2009

... Wet and windy weather expected Monday through Wednesday...

The weather pattern is expected to change on Monday as a potent
storm system moves to the West Coast. This storm system is the
remnant of former western Pacific Typhoon Melor.


Rain and increasing wind will begin in the North Bay Monday
afternoon... spreading south Monday night. Tuesday and Tuesday
night should see the heaviest rainfall and the strongest winds.
Rainfall amounts could reach 1 to 3 inches along the coast and in
the valleys... with local amounts possibly reaching 5 inches. In
the hills... rainfall amounts will range from 3 to 6 inches... with
local amounts up to 8 inches. As of now... the heaviest rain looks
to be in the Santa Cruz Mountains.
Winds Tuesday and Tuesday night
will increase to 20 to 40 mph along the coast and in the hills.
Gusts to 60 mph are possible in those areas.

Rain and wind will decrease on Wednesday as the storm system moves
to the east.

Potential impacts from this storm system include:

* mud and debris flows from recently burned areas this past Summer
and last Summer.
* Urban and Small Stream flooding.
* High winds producing power outages from power lines and trees down.
* Very slippery Road conditions from oil on roadways and wet leaves.

Listen to NOAA Weather Radio or visit our website at:
http://weather.Gov/sanfrancisco for the latest weather updates on this storm
system.
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The swirl that is Henri now is heading SW towards Puerto Rico, nothing much left of it, though. Unless redevelopment occurs. 92L moving NW but convection diminishing at the moment.
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I'm crashing early.. you guys have fun :)
Blog Update
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Looks like ex-Henri & 92l have merged.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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