Henri nearly dead

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:38 PM GMT on October 08, 2009

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Tropical Depression Henri continues to suffer from high wind shear of 20 knots, and appears on its way to dissipation. Visible satellite loops show that the shear has exposed Henri's low level center to view, and this center has become less circular and not as well defined. Henri's heavy thunderstorms have been shrinking in areal coverage and intensity, and are displaced from the center--signs of a highly sheared tropical storm that has little time left to live.

All of the reliable global computer models show weakening and dissipation of Henri by Friday, due to high wind shear. Wind shear in the vicinity of Henri's remains is predicted to fall to the moderate range by Saturday, but at that time it appears that the storm will be moving over the Dominican Republic, which will disrupt whatever is left of the storm's circulation. Henri's remains may bring heavy rains of 2 - 4 inches the the Dominican Republic and Haiti Saturday through Monday. By Tuesday, the remains of Henri will likely be moving across Florida and/or Cuba and into the Gulf of Mexico, where we will need to watch the system for re-development.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Henri (top) and a new tropical wave we're watching (bottom). The tropical wave south of Henri, just off the coast of South America, has become disorganized.

Tropical wave south of Henri
A tropical wave south of Henri, just north of the coast of South America and a few hundred miles east-southeast of the southernmost Lesser Antilles Islands, has grown less organized since yesterday. Both the areal coverage and intensity of the heavy thunderstorm activity has decreased, and there are no signs of organization to the cloud pattern. This wave is under about 10 knots of wind shear, but is too close to the Equator to be able to take advantage of the Earth's spin to help it spin up into a tropical depression very quickly. Also, the wave may pull in some dry, stable air from South America as it scoots just north of the coast over the next few days. NHC is giving this disturbance a low (less than 30% chance) or developing into a tropical depression by Saturday. There are no computer models showing development of this system.


Figure 2. Tropical Storm Parma (left) and Typhoon Melor (right) on October 7, 2009. At the time, Melor was a Category 4 typhoon with 135 mph winds, and Parma was a tropical storm with 60 mph winds. The two storms were close enough together that they rotated around a common center counter-clockwise, in an interaction known as the Fujiwara Effect. This forced Parma to reverse course and pass over the Philippines from west to east, after the storm had already crossed the islands from east to west. Now that Melor is gone, Parma is crossing the Philippines once more from east to west. Image credit: NASA Earth Observatory.

Typhoon Melor
Typhoon Melor made landfall yesterday on Japan's Honshu Island south of Osaka as a Category 1 typhoon with 85 mph winds. The typhoon killed two people and caused some moderate damage to the coastal region of southern Japan where it came ashore.

In the Philippines, Tropical Depression Parma is making its third traverse over the Philippines' Luzon Island. is expected to dump up to six more inches of rain today over the already sodden portions of northern Luzon. The storm is being blamed for 22 deaths and millions in agricultural damage.

Jeff Masters

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52. IKE
TROPICAL DEPRESSION HENRI DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102009
1100 AM AST THU OCT 08 2009

HENRI REMAINS A POORLY ORGANIZED TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITH EVIDENCE
FROM SATELLITE IMAGES OF MULTIPLE LOW-LEVEL VORTICITY CENTERS
WITHIN THE CIRCULATION ENVELOPE. IN ADDITION...DEEP CONVECTION HAS
BEEN DWINDLING DURING THE MORNING HOURS WITH LITTLE BANDING NOTED.
A 1012 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS HAD MAXIMUM WINDS OF ABOUT 30 KT...AND
THIS VALUE WILL BE USED AS THE INITIAL INTENSITY. THE CYCLONE WILL
REMAIN IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR
TODAY...FOLLOWED BY NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR AND CONVERGENT FLOW ALOFT.
NEITHER OF THESE SITUATIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION...AND
HENRI SHOULD JUST SLOWLY WEAKEN. ADVISORIES WILL BE DISCONTINUED
LATER TODAY UNLESS THE SYSTEM SHOWS IMPROVED ORGANIZATION.

THE BEST ESTIMATE OF INITIAL MOTION IS 280/11. HENRI OR ITS REMNANT
LOW SHOULD MOVE TOWARD THE WEST OR A LITTLE SOUTH OF WEST DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT BECOMES STEERED BY STRONG RIDGING OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS A LITTLE
SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND REMAINS NEAR THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE
MODEL GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 08/1500Z 19.8N 62.0W 30 KT
12HR VT 09/0000Z 20.1N 63.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
24HR VT 09/1200Z 20.2N 65.6W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
36HR VT 10/0000Z 20.2N 67.8W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 10/1200Z 20.2N 70.2W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 11/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
His actions demonstrate his maturity. Tattling on people is childish. If you have a problem with someone take it up in private or on the blog if its appropriate. He is obviously accustomed to his mommy and daddy handling his problems for him.
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Quoting reedzone:


Hmm it's crossing 10N.. This is when we should start to watch it more.


Have you ever met a disturbance you didn't like?
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Quoting reedzone:
Doesn't everybody know that we all don't abide by rules these days? :P



ture
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46. IKE
...HENRI WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE LATER TODAY...
11:00 AM AST Thu Oct 8
Location: 19.8°N 62.0°W
Max sustained: 35 mph
Moving: W at 13 mph
Min pressure: 1010 mb
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting P451:
The newest disturbance. 24 Hour IR Image Loop



Hmm it's crossing 10N.. This is when we should start to watch it more.
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WS don't care about the first stuff. Think its a waste of space, but who cares. The GD comment after that was not cool. Then you follow that up with have a blessed day, which is much better.
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what evere man leve me and my English out of it you guys dont do any better then i do
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Doesn't everybody know that we all don't abide by rules these days? :P
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LOL...i think you're missing a "t" :)
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noteed
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looks like all that came to nothing!?...strange things this year...I am assuming we are now leaving what was an active period? based on the last couple years...
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i thought it was Fujiwhara....maybe I'm mistaken.
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aret we all jumping the gune this AM




may its you guys that need mellowing out
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Quoting watchingnva:


my guess it has something to do with the trouble you've caused in here in the past....including but not limited to you circumventing your bans and coming back with other names... ;)...you are not guiltless my friend.

so the atlantic is still basically dead i see...lol


Excellent point!!!!

Totally typical behavior for JFV/WeatherStudent

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30. IKE
Quoting watchingnva:


my guess it has something to do with the trouble you've caused in here in the past....including but not limited to you circumventing your bans and coming back with other names... ;)...you are not guiltless my friend.

so the atlantic is still basically dead i see...lol


Reading into what Dr. Masters said...I'd say things may be quiet til the first of next week. Beyond that is a ?....maybe.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting WeatherStudent:
Morning....let him be Reed, as you've clearly witnessed, my friend, it's a personal vendetta that he has against me, but, whatever, I'll let it slide, I could truly care less. A final note, it's interesting, when others state that they're post were the first ones to appear, everytime Dr. M puts up a brand new daily post, he'll say nothing to them; however, when ''I'' do it on the other hand, I get flammed for it. There's some food for thought for you, Reed. Anyways, on that note, good day, all. :)


my guess it has something to do with the trouble you've caused in here in the past....including but not limited to you circumventing your bans and coming back with other names... ;)...you are not guiltless my friend.

so the atlantic is still basically dead i see...lol
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Got my popcorn popping
Hope not to offend but I choose Coke over Pepsi
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Quoting WeatherStudent:
Thanks, Dr. M. I'm first, :(.
who cares
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New TD forms in the Western Pacific...
Link
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Henri may dissipate for a few days, but if it can move into favorable conditions, I expect a regeneration. If not, then oh well. WHERE'S TACOMANS CROW??? lol
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Taz, cut it out man, everyone does that.. Gosh man!
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Quoting IKE:
***Popping bag of popcorn***

***2 bottles of Pepsi...chilled***

***toothpicks***

***napkins to wipe butter off hands***

***drama****



Sit back and enjoy~






lol
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Blog Update
Reflector site for those at work, includes Dr. Masters & Weather456, daily update.

AOI

AOI
Seismic Monitor
Humor in Comments
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
Looks like it will be a rainy weekend for the Shrimp Festival in Gulf Shores. That blows.
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ugh nevere mine
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Quoting PensacolaDoug:



Joke?



nop no joke


its in the rules


look at rule # 7


Link
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Thanks Doctor M.
Now its a waiting game to see if anything left of Henri will regenerate once or if it makes it into the gulf
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Thx Doc...
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Quoting Tazmanian:



you been re ported for saying 1st


read dr m rules of the road you cant say 1st in dr m blog the Admins find it worthless ues of blog space


Please. Did you really feel the need to tell mommy and daddy on him? Give me a break.
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12. IKE
***Popping bag of popcorn***

***2 bottles of Pepsi...chilled***

***toothpicks***

***napkins to wipe butter off hands***

***drama****



Sit back and enjoy~



Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting icepilot:
Wow, Northern Philippines is getting hit a THIRD time by the same storm



Sorta like Florida and Faye?
Member Since: July 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 553
Thirty Lashes with a wet noodle!
Member Since: July 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 553
Wow, Northern Philippines is getting hit a THIRD time by the same storm
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Quoting Tazmanian:



you been re ported for saying 1st


read dr m rules of the road you cant say 1st in dr m blog the Admins find it worthless ues of blog space



Joke?
Member Since: July 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 553
And the childishness begins by post 6...
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Impressive picture of Parma & Co.

Thanks Dr. M!
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I believe Henri ia already a remnant low. 30% for the wave behind it seems generous. I agree with Dr. M about Henri's remnants needing to be watched as they approach Florida and GOM. There could be more favorable conditions then. Thanks for the update dr. M.
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Thanks Doc. Good morning all!

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Parma has been around for quite some time and could be around for several more days

could be one of the longest lived system in the history of the EPAC
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.