Henri nearly dead

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:38 PM GMT on October 08, 2009

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Tropical Depression Henri continues to suffer from high wind shear of 20 knots, and appears on its way to dissipation. Visible satellite loops show that the shear has exposed Henri's low level center to view, and this center has become less circular and not as well defined. Henri's heavy thunderstorms have been shrinking in areal coverage and intensity, and are displaced from the center--signs of a highly sheared tropical storm that has little time left to live.

All of the reliable global computer models show weakening and dissipation of Henri by Friday, due to high wind shear. Wind shear in the vicinity of Henri's remains is predicted to fall to the moderate range by Saturday, but at that time it appears that the storm will be moving over the Dominican Republic, which will disrupt whatever is left of the storm's circulation. Henri's remains may bring heavy rains of 2 - 4 inches the the Dominican Republic and Haiti Saturday through Monday. By Tuesday, the remains of Henri will likely be moving across Florida and/or Cuba and into the Gulf of Mexico, where we will need to watch the system for re-development.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Henri (top) and a new tropical wave we're watching (bottom). The tropical wave south of Henri, just off the coast of South America, has become disorganized.

Tropical wave south of Henri
A tropical wave south of Henri, just north of the coast of South America and a few hundred miles east-southeast of the southernmost Lesser Antilles Islands, has grown less organized since yesterday. Both the areal coverage and intensity of the heavy thunderstorm activity has decreased, and there are no signs of organization to the cloud pattern. This wave is under about 10 knots of wind shear, but is too close to the Equator to be able to take advantage of the Earth's spin to help it spin up into a tropical depression very quickly. Also, the wave may pull in some dry, stable air from South America as it scoots just north of the coast over the next few days. NHC is giving this disturbance a low (less than 30% chance) or developing into a tropical depression by Saturday. There are no computer models showing development of this system.


Figure 2. Tropical Storm Parma (left) and Typhoon Melor (right) on October 7, 2009. At the time, Melor was a Category 4 typhoon with 135 mph winds, and Parma was a tropical storm with 60 mph winds. The two storms were close enough together that they rotated around a common center counter-clockwise, in an interaction known as the Fujiwara Effect. This forced Parma to reverse course and pass over the Philippines from west to east, after the storm had already crossed the islands from east to west. Now that Melor is gone, Parma is crossing the Philippines once more from east to west. Image credit: NASA Earth Observatory.

Typhoon Melor
Typhoon Melor made landfall yesterday on Japan's Honshu Island south of Osaka as a Category 1 typhoon with 85 mph winds. The typhoon killed two people and caused some moderate damage to the coastal region of southern Japan where it came ashore.

In the Philippines, Tropical Depression Parma is making its third traverse over the Philippines' Luzon Island. is expected to dump up to six more inches of rain today over the already sodden portions of northern Luzon. The storm is being blamed for 22 deaths and millions in agricultural damage.

Jeff Masters

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Residents asked to line the levees as the USS New York sets sail Tuesday.


By Times-Picayune Staff
October 07, 2009, 2:04PM

An effort is underway to get residents to line the levees along the Mississippi River on Tuesday when the New York, built with steel from the World Trade Center's destruction in the 2001 terrorist attacks, leaves Avondale for the Big Apple.



02newyork6.jpgSusan Poag/The Times-Picayune

New York City firefighter Thomas Fee poses for a photo before the christening of the New York in March at Northrop Grumman in Avondale. The ship, which contains steel from the World Trade Center destroyed in the Sept. 11, 2001 terrorist attacks, leaves Avondale Tuesday. The business community is asking residents to line the levees in tribute to the vessel.The Greater New Orleans Executives Association is calling for residents to come out from the Moon Walk to the Riverwalk on the east bank and from Gretna, Algiers Point and Belle Chasse on the west bank. The ship is scheduled to pass along downtown New Orleans between 7:30 a.m. and 8:15 a.m.

Built at Northrop Grumman Ship Systems in New Orleans, the New York is scheduled to be commissioned on Nov. 7. It is one of three ships that will be dedicated to the victims and heroes of the Sept. 11, 2001 attacks.
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Quoting hurricane23:
Invest 92L up...thunderstorm activity is poorly organized as of right now.



If it survives the dry air, what are its odds for development in the Central to Western Caribbean?
Member Since: September 6, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 3764
Quoting iluvjess:
Well I certainly hope that yall send them back to Gainsville with their tails between their legs.
Don't count on that especially if they play like last wk.
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Anybody seen the skinny on Brad Pitts floating house that he brought to NOLA? Seems like a marketing attempt to me. I don't se any andavantages to a home that will supposedly rise with the water and float on top VS a home that is permanently elevated and affixed on piers.
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upper-level flow and dry air should be an issue for 92L for the time being but could develope once in the western caribbean. But even that is a big if.
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Well I certainly hope that yall send them back to Gainsville with their tails between their legs.
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2009 Storms
All Active Year


Atlantic
92L.INVEST
10L.HENRI


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It's almost due North of Guyana lol
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Ahh ok, it is real, 92L needs to be watched for slow development.
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Quoting StormW:


Now see, ya started off in the first place by misqouting me...I had no problem with them namimg GRACE...mine was the argument it should have been named sooner, over warmer water, and when they did name her, should have been subtropical based on the SST criteria per their explanation.

A system will sustain itself however, as given the difference in air temperature and SST's, it is alomost the same effect as a tropical system in a warmer environment with SST's 26.5C or above. However, by their criteria, water less than 26C is not suffivient to develop or sustain a purely tropical system.



As for naming it sooner, NHC has admitted somewhat that it should have been. And will likely be done so in the offseason.
Member Since: September 6, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 3764
I'd say its the other way round Juv...LOL


Death Valley always ready for anything ,..even Earthquakes.



After 15 Years, LSU-Auburn Game Still An Earthshaking Experience


It is the stuff of legend.

With national rankings at stake and a national audience watching on ESPN, LSU quarterback Tommy Hodson threw a touchdown pass to tailback Eddie Fuller on fourth down with 1:47 remaining in the game. The eruption of the crowd registered as an earthquake on the seismograph located in LSU’s Howe-Russell Geoscience Complex.
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Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:
Parma has been around for quite some time and could be around for several more days

could be one of the longest lived system in the history of the EPAC

Parma is in the WPAC...way way way away from the EPAC
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15940
Quoting reedzone:
... Unless the 92L on wunderground is an error, cause I checked other sites and nothing showed.
I don't think it's a mistake look at the coordinates.
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reed sorry to burst your bubble its located at 9.3n on wunderground :P.
Member Since: September 6, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 3764
Invest 92L up...thunderstorm activity is poorly organized as of right now.

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... Unless the 92L on wunderground is an error, cause I checked other sites and nothing showed.
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Quoting StormW:


Yea...someone said that yesterday and last night.


?
Member Since: September 6, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 3764
Oh Guys! we have a new Invest.
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Mornin Pat. Ready for them Gators?
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92L has formed southeast of Henri as I thought it would now that it is north of 10N. It needs to be watched.
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Quoting P451:
The quick story on Henri.


Thanks for the graphic. It makes it easier for the less talented among us to understand what is happening. I have always had a problem identifying the low level clouds from the mid and upper level ones.
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Huge area of subsidence i.e; sinking air to henri's north should preclude any intensification. This should be downgraded to a remnant low within the next advisory or so.
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Quoting IKE:


Because I don't have time to. I'm working my job too.

Trust me...it's RIP.

fair enough.
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74. IKE
Quoting hurricane556:

Why don't you actually give a description on why its RIP. Unlike you, people such as P451 show why it is degenerating with images and diagrams.


Because I don't have time to. I'm working my job too.

Trust me...it's RIP.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
The skinny on Henri is pretty straight forward.


Posted by: JeffMasters, 8:38 AM CDT on October 08, 2009
Tropical Depression Henri continues to suffer from high wind shear of 20 knots, and appears on its way to dissipation. Visible satellite loops show that the shear has exposed Henri's low level center to view, and this center has become less circular and not as well defined. Henri's heavy thunderstorms have been shrinking in areal coverage and intensity, and are displaced from the center--signs of a highly sheared tropical storm that has little time left to live.


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Quoting P451:


Apologies for being a jackass towards you last night.

And, I concur, it is moving northward and gaining a twist to it.

I'm more leaning towards potential development some time next week much farther west however. I don't know if it has time to amount to much at the moment.

Although, this is the year of surprises, so who is to say it won't pull a rapid jump like Henri did before it hits the islands.


It's alright, I agree, something could form in the hot spot next week, it's just that time of the year.
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Quoting IKE:


You're welcome.


Why don't you actually give a description on why its RIP. Unlike you, people such as P451 show why it is degenerating with images and diagrams.
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Henri, 12 Z Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)




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I see the disturbance is moving further north looks like its gonna miss SA almost assuredly now.
Member Since: September 6, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 3764
Quoting IKE:


You're welcome.

Please pass the popcorn.....
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Henri 12 Z Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)

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63. IKE
Quoting hurricane556:


thanks for stating the obvious


You're welcome.

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting IKE:
Looking at Henri on visible....

RIP Henri.


thanks for stating the obvious
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Quoting tropicofcancer:


Have you ever met a disturbance you didn't like?


Great YOU again, first off, the disturbance is enhancing with convection and is in 5-10 knots of shear, why would I not be interested in it? I mentioned 2 days ago that IF the disturbance moves north of 10N, it would have to be watched for further development. Models are not gods, just because models show nothing doesn't mean anything won't happen.
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Looks like it will be very active in the Carribean and/or Gomex next week.
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Quoting P451:
The newest disturbance. 24 Hour IR Image Loop



IMO, nothing appreciable will come of this until the Central Caribbean.
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56. IKE
Looking at Henri on visible....

RIP Henri.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Its all good Taz. Don't let them get you down.
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I was a fixture here years ago. I have only lurked since then for various reasons. Taz has been here a long time. He gets a little excited sometimes but means well. How about you people worry about your faults instead of trying to humiliate him over blog spelling. Get a life.
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Quoting vortextrance:
WS don't care about the first stuff. Think its a waste of space, but who cares. The GD comment after that was not cool. Then you follow that up with have a blessed day, which is much better.


thank you vary march well said
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52. IKE
TROPICAL DEPRESSION HENRI DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102009
1100 AM AST THU OCT 08 2009

HENRI REMAINS A POORLY ORGANIZED TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITH EVIDENCE
FROM SATELLITE IMAGES OF MULTIPLE LOW-LEVEL VORTICITY CENTERS
WITHIN THE CIRCULATION ENVELOPE. IN ADDITION...DEEP CONVECTION HAS
BEEN DWINDLING DURING THE MORNING HOURS WITH LITTLE BANDING NOTED.
A 1012 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS HAD MAXIMUM WINDS OF ABOUT 30 KT...AND
THIS VALUE WILL BE USED AS THE INITIAL INTENSITY. THE CYCLONE WILL
REMAIN IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR
TODAY...FOLLOWED BY NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR AND CONVERGENT FLOW ALOFT.
NEITHER OF THESE SITUATIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION...AND
HENRI SHOULD JUST SLOWLY WEAKEN. ADVISORIES WILL BE DISCONTINUED
LATER TODAY UNLESS THE SYSTEM SHOWS IMPROVED ORGANIZATION.

THE BEST ESTIMATE OF INITIAL MOTION IS 280/11. HENRI OR ITS REMNANT
LOW SHOULD MOVE TOWARD THE WEST OR A LITTLE SOUTH OF WEST DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT BECOMES STEERED BY STRONG RIDGING OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS A LITTLE
SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND REMAINS NEAR THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE
MODEL GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 08/1500Z 19.8N 62.0W 30 KT
12HR VT 09/0000Z 20.1N 63.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
24HR VT 09/1200Z 20.2N 65.6W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
36HR VT 10/0000Z 20.2N 67.8W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 10/1200Z 20.2N 70.2W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 11/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.