Henri nearly dead

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:38 PM GMT on October 08, 2009

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Tropical Depression Henri continues to suffer from high wind shear of 20 knots, and appears on its way to dissipation. Visible satellite loops show that the shear has exposed Henri's low level center to view, and this center has become less circular and not as well defined. Henri's heavy thunderstorms have been shrinking in areal coverage and intensity, and are displaced from the center--signs of a highly sheared tropical storm that has little time left to live.

All of the reliable global computer models show weakening and dissipation of Henri by Friday, due to high wind shear. Wind shear in the vicinity of Henri's remains is predicted to fall to the moderate range by Saturday, but at that time it appears that the storm will be moving over the Dominican Republic, which will disrupt whatever is left of the storm's circulation. Henri's remains may bring heavy rains of 2 - 4 inches the the Dominican Republic and Haiti Saturday through Monday. By Tuesday, the remains of Henri will likely be moving across Florida and/or Cuba and into the Gulf of Mexico, where we will need to watch the system for re-development.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Henri (top) and a new tropical wave we're watching (bottom). The tropical wave south of Henri, just off the coast of South America, has become disorganized.

Tropical wave south of Henri
A tropical wave south of Henri, just north of the coast of South America and a few hundred miles east-southeast of the southernmost Lesser Antilles Islands, has grown less organized since yesterday. Both the areal coverage and intensity of the heavy thunderstorm activity has decreased, and there are no signs of organization to the cloud pattern. This wave is under about 10 knots of wind shear, but is too close to the Equator to be able to take advantage of the Earth's spin to help it spin up into a tropical depression very quickly. Also, the wave may pull in some dry, stable air from South America as it scoots just north of the coast over the next few days. NHC is giving this disturbance a low (less than 30% chance) or developing into a tropical depression by Saturday. There are no computer models showing development of this system.


Figure 2. Tropical Storm Parma (left) and Typhoon Melor (right) on October 7, 2009. At the time, Melor was a Category 4 typhoon with 135 mph winds, and Parma was a tropical storm with 60 mph winds. The two storms were close enough together that they rotated around a common center counter-clockwise, in an interaction known as the Fujiwara Effect. This forced Parma to reverse course and pass over the Philippines from west to east, after the storm had already crossed the islands from east to west. Now that Melor is gone, Parma is crossing the Philippines once more from east to west. Image credit: NASA Earth Observatory.

Typhoon Melor
Typhoon Melor made landfall yesterday on Japan's Honshu Island south of Osaka as a Category 1 typhoon with 85 mph winds. The typhoon killed two people and caused some moderate damage to the coastal region of southern Japan where it came ashore.

In the Philippines, Tropical Depression Parma is making its third traverse over the Philippines' Luzon Island. is expected to dump up to six more inches of rain today over the already sodden portions of northern Luzon. The storm is being blamed for 22 deaths and millions in agricultural damage.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Patrap:
Which is probably the biggest problem with a floating structure. How do you anchor it in such a way that it is allowed to float, yet not become loose, floating debris itself?


" He designed a house that sits just a few steps off the ground, until – heaven forbid – the flood waters start to sweep across the lowlands again. If that happens, the house is meant to float, rising gently on a pair of steel poles mounted at either end. Not 5 feet, not 8; Mayne’s house would float up to 12 feet above the waters. "

And hopefully not break free or beat itself to shreads against something else nearby.
If it broke free, everyone else around it would be better served if that house sunk.

If we ever wanted to have a house that can rise above the 30 foot peak surge that we know is possible...that is a lot of lateral movement that must not be allowed for the reasons I mentioned.
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12463
Quoting atmoaggie:

Which is probably the biggest problem with a floating structure. How do you anchor it in such a way that it is allowed to float, yet not become loose, floating debris itself?

Easy if it is on it's own 1+ acre. What if it is on a 1/4 (or less) acre lot?
Debris from Boliver was located 6 miles inland after IKE. Debris also includes such damageing object like trees, telephone poles
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Quoting SouthDadeFish:


Yeah Atmo, I say approaching though, because of the very things you said. We are completely due, and I assume the forecasts can't be wrong ALL the time, lol.

That is the first thing I assume when I look at those...until they perform a bit better, anyway.
They have been really bad. Read that Japan-UCLA link I posted. They totally hindcasted the MJO phase and amplitude starting with the usual obs. And then successfully hindcasted cyclogenesis.

We have nothing currently operational I would want to use to undertake a project like that.
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12463
Which is probably the biggest problem with a floating structure. How do you anchor it in such a way that it is allowed to float, yet not become loose, floating debris itself?


" He designed a house that sits just a few steps off the ground, until – heaven forbid – the flood waters start to sweep across the lowlands again. If that happens, the house is meant to float, rising gently on a pair of steel poles mounted at either end. Not 5 feet, not 8; Mayne’s house would float up to 12 feet above the waters. "
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Found an interesting article on TS Melor, details provided by USA Today about his interesting trip through Japan! Unfortunately, 2 are known dead and he created headaches throughout Japan. Full article in the link. Good day, peace to all, everyone be blessed!
Link
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Quoting eyesontheweather:
Another factor that is often over looked is floating debris. It is an understatement to call it floating debris. It is often large portions of homes, boats etc moving very rapidly and with great force being pushed into anything in its path and causing serious damage. BTW the photo, my avatar is a home that floated (the currents pushed)across the street into another home in New Orleans


If Im correct,..thats Lakeview I presume?
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Quoting atmoaggie:

Well, that is the forecast and we are due. Right now, I wouldn't call it approaching, nor can we say what sort of amplitude we might see once it does.
The forecasts on MJO have been horrible.



Someone please get the NICAM operational soon. Please?
http://www.nicam.jp/hiki/?UCLA+NEWSLETTER+%28No.+87%29


Yeah Atmo, I say approaching though, because of the very things you said. We are completely due, and I assume the forecasts can't be wrong ALL the time, lol.
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144. IKE
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Quoting eyesontheweather:
Another factor that is often over looked is floating debris. It is an understatement to call it floating debris. It is often large portions of homes, boats etc moving very rapidly and with great force being pushed into anything in its path and causing serious damage. BTW the photo, my avatar is a home that floated (the currents pushed)across the street into another home in New Orleans

Which is probably the biggest problem with a floating structure. How do you anchor it in such a way that it is allowed to float, yet not become loose, floating debris itself?

Easy if it is on it's own 1+ acre. What if it is on a 1/4 (or less) acre lot?
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12463
Quoting SouthDadeFish:
I'm interested in that wave to the southeast of Henri. With an upward MJO pulse approaching things could get interesting. Also, Parma has dumped over 20 inches of rain in the Philippines. My thoughts

Well, that is the forecast and we are due. Right now, I wouldn't call it approaching, nor can we say what sort of amplitude we might see once it does.
The forecasts on MJO have been horrible.



Someone please get the NICAM operational soon. Please?
http://www.nicam.jp/hiki/?UCLA+NEWSLETTER+%28No.+87%29
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12463
Quoting Patrap:


Lotsa different Designs for Elevating a Structure along the Gulf Coast. A Lil research and some digging will show you many ways to accomplish that.

Although evacuation is ALWAYS recommended..a floating home allows one to have a Fit structure to return to.

That's the theme really.
But Rising above a known surge level is tricky,cuz well..Surge is always gonna find new Heights thru time.
Another factor that is often over looked is floating debris. It is an understatement to call it floating debris. It is often large portions of homes, boats etc moving very rapidly and with great force being pushed into anything in its path and causing serious damage. BTW the photo, my avatar is a home that floated (the currents pushed)across the street into another home in New Orleans
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Little evidence of a surface low in the surface obs from the last hour...



Need more than 2 obs to analyze a TS or TD out of this.
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12463
Quoting SQUAWK:




wow, if this system develops, it could be a record south landfall, on south america or panama!

be back late tonight
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I'm interested in that wave to the southeast of Henri. With an upward MJO pulse approaching things could get interesting. Also, Parma has dumped over 20 inches of rain in the Philippines. My thoughts
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Wow, check out the low - mid level winds at Guadeloupe!


Can that be right?

Nothing of the sort for Philipsburg:



Both are showing at least some shear and definitely some dry air aloft.
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12463
anyone got any of the more reliable and well known model tracks for 92l?
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i wonder if thermite helps wit buoyancy?


Nice shot of the huge trough exiting and creating some breathing room
Link
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Quoting lakeEFX:
Patrap- that was some really interesting reading about the floating house. My boyfriend was toying with the idea of designing some type of house that could rise up in a storm surge, but was thinking about a patoon sort of foundation- much like the patoon boats have. We have high hopes of moving somewhere along the Gulf coast someday, but would like some sort of protection should a hurricane strike. Guess it's do-able, but maybe in a different design.


Lotsa different Designs for Elevating a Structure along the Gulf Coast. A Lil research and some digging will show you many ways to accomplish that.

Although evacuation is ALWAYS recommended..a floating home allows one to have a Fit structure to return to.

That's the theme really.
But Rising above a known surge level is tricky,cuz well..Surge is always gonna find new Heights thru time.
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Quoting stansimms:


Personally, I think you should be reported for the way you butcher our English language. Everytime you post it's like reading a post from a three year old. I love coming on here just to read your comments because it's funny to me how you have no education when it comes to spelling or even punctuation. To me, you're the joke of the blog.

Two things, learn how to use your spell check or go back to school and learn how to spell. Next time you think about reporting someone due to their blog context, think first about how you come across to people.

Just telling you what you should have been told several years ago on here.


You know something you sound kind of jealous of Taz, he's so well liked and all and pretty smart and has been here for a long time. Take a minute and you might learn something. Go to the shrimp fest here in gulf shores and when it rains it might cool you down. People like you just come on here and insult people just to stir the pot. You need to be banned and never let come back. That would be sooooo nice.
I see henri doesn't look as good as yesterday. I read a while back that someone made a statement that Oct may turn out to be like a Aug or Sept. Could that be happening with more invest? I am just wondering. I know where starting to get cold fronts coming down know so want that put a halt on things? Last night it was so hot and muggy and we had some rough thunderstorms, it was real windy and rained really hard.

Sheri
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Patrap- that was some really interesting reading about the floating house. My boyfriend was toying with the idea of designing some type of house that could rise up in a storm surge, but was thinking about a patoon sort of foundation- much like the patoon boats have. We have high hopes of moving somewhere along the Gulf coast someday, but would like some sort of protection should a hurricane strike. Guess it's do-able, but maybe in a different design.
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Quoting Patrap:
Residents asked to line the levees as the USS New York sets sail Tuesday.


By Times-Picayune Staff
October 07, 2009, 2:04PM

An effort is underway to get residents to line the levees along the Mississippi River on Tuesday when the New York, built with steel from the World Trade Center's destruction in the 2001 terrorist attacks, leaves Avondale for the Big Apple.



02newyork6.jpgSusan Poag/The Times-Picayune

New York City firefighter Thomas Fee poses for a photo before the christening of the New York in March at Northrop Grumman in Avondale. The ship, which contains steel from the World Trade Center destroyed in the Sept. 11, 2001 terrorist attacks, leaves Avondale Tuesday. The business community is asking residents to line the levees in tribute to the vessel.The Greater New Orleans Executives Association is calling for residents to come out from the Moon Walk to the Riverwalk on the east bank and from Gretna, Algiers Point and Belle Chasse on the west bank. The ship is scheduled to pass along downtown New Orleans between 7:30 a.m. and 8:15 a.m.

Built at Northrop Grumman Ship Systems in New Orleans, the New York is scheduled to be commissioned on Nov. 7. It is one of three ships that will be dedicated to the victims and heroes of the Sept. 11, 2001 attacks.


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Link

Article showing some of Brad's other choices. Floating houses make headlines, fixed elevation doesn't. That's my story and I'm stickin to it... lol.
So, 92L became an invest as I thought it would be. What are your guys thoughts on it?
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Dont see this doing much of anything either with those current model plots.upper-level flow and sinking air will be an issue for the time being and should inhibit organization till the western caribbean. ships model brings this up to 102kts which nonsence as it does not take into account land interaction as usual.

Heres a nice visible flash loop courtesy of ramsdis.
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Quoting StormW:
Good morning!

Anyone see the latest ENSO update?

I give up.


Yep...read it. It appears that they're still thinking a moderate 1.0 to 1.5 Nino 3.4 anomaly during the winter (Dec-Feb) period.

Looking at the Kelvin Wave plot it appears that the cool upwelling phase moved into the eastern Pacific responsible for recent cooling there. I believe another downwelling phase is likely to start soon and perhaps trigger the warming they're expecting...but it's certainly not an exact science forecasting this.

Longer term, it appears we're still on track to head back to near neutral conditions by late spring and beyond (with normal caveats of forecasting beyond the predictability barrier of spring)

Quoting Markx999:


Except perhaps for the elderly and that intolerably long wheelchair ramp...


Exception noted. Good Point. But for the majority I think that fixed elevation would be prefered.
Quoting iluvjess:
Anybody seen the skinny on Brad Pitts floating house that he brought to NOLA? Seems like a marketing attempt to me. I don't se any andavantages to a home that will supposedly rise with the water and float on top VS a home that is permanently elevated and affixed on piers.


Except perhaps for the elderly and that intolerably long wheelchair ramp...
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Quoting ElConando:


holy? really? well lets not celebrate just yet but that is a good sign.

Yea and that same high is responsible for all this hot weather in FL.
http://www.abcactionnews.com/content/weather/7day/default.aspx
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From what I read Bradd had several homes to choose from. All of the rest were elevated on fixed piers. Why choose the only one that has this floating design? What is the advantage to having a design that virually gauarantees your home will be sitting directly on top of any rising and moving water. Seems to me that permanent elevation is a much lower risk. I'm willing to bet that NFIP would concur. While I think that from a technological standpoint the design is very interesting, I just do not see any advantages to floating VS fixed elevation. Some of the other features of this house are very nice including built in generators, water recycling, etc. Just take the house and put it on 15 ft piers and you have a win-win.
.
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Thanks Dr; in the absence of development of the T-wave, looks like all clear until Henri's remnants hit the Gulf next week. Good News all in all and great weekend for Football coming up. I graduated from UM but live in Tallahaasse (one of those "split" households between the Noles and the Canes). :)
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Quoting hurricane23:
Some plots for 92L...building ridge to its north...



Thanks "Killer" but it was posted 12 posts ago.
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someone mentioned yesterday that 92L happen to be near the same spot Charley formed... http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home2.cgi
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Quoting IKE:


Oops!


crow for you? :P

its incredible in the downward pulse in MJO and other factors that Grace and Henri formed, I wasn't expecting anything until mid oct and even then I expected only one storm.
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Quoting ElConando:
Doesn't seem smart imo.


The Home is a Design by a World Renowned architect,..and there's much more to the story than Brad Pitt.
Its Based off of Holland Designs actually.
And is only One Home.
Not a model for more nore are there any plans for more.



Brad Pitt's architect Thom Mayne designs floating house in New Orleans.



By Doug MacCash, The Times-Picayune
October 07, 2009, 10:00AM

The architects who designed houses for Brad Pitt's Make It Right development in the Lower Ninth Ward had to juggle two challenges. The first was how to build the houses high enough so that they would escape floodwaters -- even if they might not withstand the inundation that occurred following Hurricane Katrina in 2005. The other was how to preserve the intimate New Orleans-style streetscape where people could sit on their porches and visit with passersby.
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Some plots for 92L...strong ridge to its north...

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112. P451
Okay I found it. Hurricane John, 1994. 31 Days.



Yet it didn't do the oval loop I thought it did. That was another system that was in the central and western pacific. Good luck finding that one. Oh well.


Also a list of the hurricane records.

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Quoting ElConando:
Doesn't seem smart imo.

They have built an entire community in Holland that does the same thing. All utilities and everything else goes up with the high water.
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88. I read yesterday storm as always very good and detailed, as for stating the obvious i'll try to limit that :).
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Quoting P451:
Thanks, Storm.



Is that true? I would assume in the post-season-analysis they probably should explain why they held off. Did they think it wouldn't last long enough and given it's location - that it didn't make sense to name it STS-Grace?

Regardless this will be one of the more interesting PSA's we've see yet. All the sheared systems, a couple of which they held on to too long, or over-estimated wind speeds of.

The two early invests that didn't get classified but maybe could have been.

It's been a rough year with all these borderline systems.

Outside of Fred and Bill everything else was very debatable in a few categories (strength, classification or not, late naming or upgrading AND late deactivation and downgrading).

The environment was tough on the systems and the systems were tough on the forecasters.



Well honestly I put two and two together, they said it should have been named earlier so I think they will do so in PSA.
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108. IKE
Quoting IKE:


Reading into what Dr. Masters said...I'd say things may be quiet til the first of next week. Beyond that is a ?....maybe.


Oops!
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107. P451
Quoting AussieStorm:

Parma is in the WPAC...way way way away from the EPAC


I think one Pacific system lasted what... 30 days?

Did nearly an entire oval of the entire basin?

It's been a long time...and I just do not recall the system or year but I do recall watching it on TWC a long time past.
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With as much hype as the game is getting, the rivalry, the history, Tebo questionable (although I think he Will play), and potential weather, I think it's anybody's game.
105. IKE
92L looks to just miss South America.
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I see there is also a new tropical depression that has formed near Guam, visible in this IR loop... Link

It does not appear likely to bother anyone as its track is projected north over mostly open water and not that intense.

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Quoting iluvjess:
Anybody seen the skinny on Brad Pitts floating house that he brought to NOLA? Seems like a marketing attempt to me. I don't se any andavantages to a home that will supposedly rise with the water and float on top VS a home that is permanently elevated and affixed on piers.
Doesn't seem smart imo.
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Residents asked to line the levees as the USS New York sets sail Tuesday.


By Times-Picayune Staff
October 07, 2009, 2:04PM

An effort is underway to get residents to line the levees along the Mississippi River on Tuesday when the New York, built with steel from the World Trade Center's destruction in the 2001 terrorist attacks, leaves Avondale for the Big Apple.



02newyork6.jpgSusan Poag/The Times-Picayune

New York City firefighter Thomas Fee poses for a photo before the christening of the New York in March at Northrop Grumman in Avondale. The ship, which contains steel from the World Trade Center destroyed in the Sept. 11, 2001 terrorist attacks, leaves Avondale Tuesday. The business community is asking residents to line the levees in tribute to the vessel.The Greater New Orleans Executives Association is calling for residents to come out from the Moon Walk to the Riverwalk on the east bank and from Gretna, Algiers Point and Belle Chasse on the west bank. The ship is scheduled to pass along downtown New Orleans between 7:30 a.m. and 8:15 a.m.

Built at Northrop Grumman Ship Systems in New Orleans, the New York is scheduled to be commissioned on Nov. 7. It is one of three ships that will be dedicated to the victims and heroes of the Sept. 11, 2001 attacks.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.