Henri nearly dead

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:38 PM GMT on October 08, 2009

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Tropical Depression Henri continues to suffer from high wind shear of 20 knots, and appears on its way to dissipation. Visible satellite loops show that the shear has exposed Henri's low level center to view, and this center has become less circular and not as well defined. Henri's heavy thunderstorms have been shrinking in areal coverage and intensity, and are displaced from the center--signs of a highly sheared tropical storm that has little time left to live.

All of the reliable global computer models show weakening and dissipation of Henri by Friday, due to high wind shear. Wind shear in the vicinity of Henri's remains is predicted to fall to the moderate range by Saturday, but at that time it appears that the storm will be moving over the Dominican Republic, which will disrupt whatever is left of the storm's circulation. Henri's remains may bring heavy rains of 2 - 4 inches the the Dominican Republic and Haiti Saturday through Monday. By Tuesday, the remains of Henri will likely be moving across Florida and/or Cuba and into the Gulf of Mexico, where we will need to watch the system for re-development.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Henri (top) and a new tropical wave we're watching (bottom). The tropical wave south of Henri, just off the coast of South America, has become disorganized.

Tropical wave south of Henri
A tropical wave south of Henri, just north of the coast of South America and a few hundred miles east-southeast of the southernmost Lesser Antilles Islands, has grown less organized since yesterday. Both the areal coverage and intensity of the heavy thunderstorm activity has decreased, and there are no signs of organization to the cloud pattern. This wave is under about 10 knots of wind shear, but is too close to the Equator to be able to take advantage of the Earth's spin to help it spin up into a tropical depression very quickly. Also, the wave may pull in some dry, stable air from South America as it scoots just north of the coast over the next few days. NHC is giving this disturbance a low (less than 30% chance) or developing into a tropical depression by Saturday. There are no computer models showing development of this system.


Figure 2. Tropical Storm Parma (left) and Typhoon Melor (right) on October 7, 2009. At the time, Melor was a Category 4 typhoon with 135 mph winds, and Parma was a tropical storm with 60 mph winds. The two storms were close enough together that they rotated around a common center counter-clockwise, in an interaction known as the Fujiwara Effect. This forced Parma to reverse course and pass over the Philippines from west to east, after the storm had already crossed the islands from east to west. Now that Melor is gone, Parma is crossing the Philippines once more from east to west. Image credit: NASA Earth Observatory.

Typhoon Melor
Typhoon Melor made landfall yesterday on Japan's Honshu Island south of Osaka as a Category 1 typhoon with 85 mph winds. The typhoon killed two people and caused some moderate damage to the coastal region of southern Japan where it came ashore.

In the Philippines, Tropical Depression Parma is making its third traverse over the Philippines' Luzon Island. is expected to dump up to six more inches of rain today over the already sodden portions of northern Luzon. The storm is being blamed for 22 deaths and millions in agricultural damage.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting iluvjess:
From what I read Bradd had several homes to choose from. All of the rest were elevated on fixed piers. Why choose the only one that has this floating design? What is the advantage to having a design that virually gauarantees your home will be sitting directly on top of any rising and moving water. Seems to me that permanent elevation is a much lower risk. I'm willing to bet that NFIP would concur. While I think that from a technological standpoint the design is very interesting, I just do not see any advantages to floating VS fixed elevation. Some of the other features of this house are very nice including built in generators, water recycling, etc. Just take the house and put it on 15 ft piers and you have a win-win.


The issue with fixed piers is the issue that destroyed many homes in NOLA during Katrina: poor foundation soils inundated with brackish water, causing the pier system to be partially or wholly compromised, causing severe structural damage to the home. A floating design would avoid the risk of damage due to foundation compromise. The only way to relieve the foundation soil issue is to pound the piers into the soil, but even that is not safe; I saw many homes built to withstand 100 year floods lose their foundation or shift on compromised piers. The bottom line is that the soils in the NOLA area are poorly suited to supporting any type of structure; the only flooded areas of NOLA that avoided large scale, widespread losses due to foundation issues are the oldest settled areas...
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Quoting StormW:
Hot off the press!

TROPICAL WEATHER SYNOPSIS OCTOBER 08, 2009 ISSUED 1:00 P.M. EDT


Nice Update! Agree with your slightly more north initial track of 92L before bending westward under the impressive ridging centered near Florida.

My only comment is that I'm not sure that the low heat content discussion is as important in this situation, as the fast flow to the south of the strong ridging will mean that anything that may develop wouldn't have much time over any one place to upwell.

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200. xcool
tornadodude noo
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
yowza. Cajun Navy it is.
My son's birthday is August 28th by the way.
He was 21 that year.
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11348
Anything could happen with 92L in the next 48 hours and as I noted this am, it was looking very poor, but now trying to get a groove on again with a re-firing of convection...Could be short-lived but Henri suprised a lot of folks yesterday, including myself, in the face of very daunting sheer. It's a wait and see what happens over the next 24. The NHC "48" hour rule on possible slow development is a good one and I would think that they would want to see at least 24 hours of persistent convection near a possible center before upgrading to Orange unless something unexpected (like Henri) comes together very quickly.
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So good afternoon, anyone think that Parma looks a lot like Grace did?
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This season has greatly educated me on conditions for TC formation and strengthening. There are so many factors at play. It looks like this season may end up as a moderate el nino.
Member Since: September 6, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 3759
Quoting 7544:
henri starting to burst again and the hawf takes what ever is left of him right into so fla

Henri is not dead yet. Hopefully, Henri doesn't grow too large and create too many problems. I remember Charlie and Wilma originated in that area!
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The Cajun Navy:


Heroic Louisiana Volunteers Saved Thousands of Hurricane Katrina Survivors


In the hours immediately following Hurricane Katrina's devastating assault on New Orleans, the first private citizen responders who brought their boats and risked their lives in the service of stranded flood victims have come to be known as the "Cajun Navy."
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128645
193. xcool
UPDATE BY:Jim Williams... Tropical Depression Henri continues to weaken in a high wind shear environment N.E of the Leeward Islands. The shear could relax a bit by the weekend but subsidence should prevent redevelopment. The official forecast from NHC calls for dissipation within 48hrs due to inceased shear.
Another wave is east of the Windward Islands in a more favorable environment, so this could develop as well over the next couple of days.
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
192. 7544
henri starting to burst again and the hawf takes what ever is left of him right into so fla
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Quoting Chicklit:
convection up with the wave south of the low formerly known as henri...Loop

'Cajun Navy'
that's cute patrap.



Cute isnt the word I'd use for about 10-12 Days of yanking folks from calamity and corraling those who didnt survive.
But I understand your view of the Term.

Its not used much outta this area proper,cept save for those who enlisted,or volunteered.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128645
Quoting markymark1973:
NHC nailed another one and 92L is headed west towards the Pacific. Models are showing lowering pressures in the western Caribbean around the next 10 days. There is about another 2 week window for some possible development then the season is over. Looking forward to 2010. This season has been year of the naked swirls and boring pathetic shredded storms.



I hope your just as dissapointed come this time next year sport
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128645
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


This has a long ways to go. Convection isnt as organized as your advertising it to be. Lets just see how it does tonight.

I wouldnt call this an organized invest.

I wouldn't either, and with D-min it may look worse. We shall see though.
Member Since: September 6, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 3759
convection up with the wave south of the low formerly known as henri...Loop

'Cajun Navy'
that's cute patrap.

Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11348
NHC nailed another one and 92L is headed west towards the Pacific. Models hinting some lowering pressures in the western Caribbean in about 10 days. There is about another 2 week window for some possible development then the season is over. Looking forward to 2010. This season has been year of the naked swirls and boring pathetic shredded storms.
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Quoting FSUCOOPman:


It looks like the two examples of storms that we've seen from that area did two things.

1. Became majors.
2. stayed way south on a primarily westward track.


Indeed those two storms did manage to get through there. However, the area does tend to be an unfavorable area for storms due to the Columbian Low. More often than not, storms passing through that area don't fair well, especially later in the season. Examples include Hurricane Joyce (2000) and Tropical Storm Jerry (2001)



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Did not mean to start such a debate. lol. I just can't figure out the advanatge to floating vs fixed elevation. For example... 6 ft water rise with floating house guarantees that your house will float on the surface exposing the entire extererior surface to debris and exposing the structure of your house and its contents to verticle motion and horizontal motion as it "floats" on the constantly moving water. Now, 6 ft wter rise with fixed elevation on 12' high x 36" wide piers... only the piers are exposed to debris (much less surface area than the entire home), no verticle or horizontal motion too the structure of the home or the contents. And, I'm sure that standard fixed pier elevation is much more affordable than the floating foundation. I think that the science end of it is pretty neat but why spend all the money and time to develope what atleast appears to be an inferior design to that of the original fixed elevation tequnique?
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Quoting 1900hurricane:

I think Hurricane Joan from 1988 would be a better analouge storm due to the fact that it was a mid October storm in the area, but you are correct; it certainly isn't impossible.



It looks like the two examples of storms that we've seen from that area did two things.

1. Became majors.
2. stayed way south on a primarily westward track.

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Sorry Stormchaser2007, you probably didn't mean to criticize me, but I took it as an offense. So I'm sorry if I was a bit hard on you, we'll see what happens with 92L. In my personal opinion, I think 92L has a medium chance by tonight if conditions hold.
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"Henri nearly dead"
The Doc's put this one to bed
Henri's remains
"...may bring heavy rains..."
Shear, again...has shred.
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Quoting TheCaneWhisperer:
Surely not impossible for 92L to develop in the SE Caribbean. Felix proved that.



I think Hurricane Joan from 1988 would be a better analouge storm due to the fact that it was a mid October storm in the area, but you are correct; it certainly isn't impossible.

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.
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:


This has a long ways to go. Convection isnt as organized as your advertising it to be. Lets just see how it does tonight.


I said IF it continues.. I didn't say convection was very well organized, I just said it was around the center. It is organizing quite well.
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Already has an eye LOL.. no but seriously, we saw the same with Gustav, but Gustavs eye as an invest was much clearer than this one. Interesting though...

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Quoting eyesontheweather:
I stand corrected. Thank you for the insight. Later.....


Anytime, take care.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128645
Quoting reedzone:


Yes, 92L is organizing quite well today.. Notice some banding features to the northeast. If conditions stay and deep convection fires up tonight, TD by morning.


This has a long ways to go. Convection isnt as organized as your advertising it to be. Lets just see how it does tonight.

I wouldnt call this an organized invest.

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Yeah- floating (ramming) debris was my biggest concern, too. I thought I knew a lot about storm surge until Katrina hit, and showed just how devastating and dangerous it can REALLY be. I had saved that You Tube video of the Vacarelli's encounter with Katrina, and, boy, oh boy, did that scare the bejeebies out of me. I plan on being well educated (thanks to most of you people on this blog) before I ever move down there.
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Quoting Patrap:
Quoting Patrap:
I stand corrected. Thank you for the insight. Later.....
Member Since: August 25, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 633
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:



NOUS42 KWNO 081606
ADMNFD

SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE
NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS CAMP SPRINGS MD
1115 AM EDT THU OCT 08 2009
THE 12Z NCEP PRODUCTION CYCLE IS ON TIME.
RAOBS UPDATE...
MZT/76458 - 10159
MID/76644 - 10142
ACA/76805 - SHORT...TO 571MB
DDC/72451 - SHORT...TO 625MB
FFR/78897 - DELETED WINDS 850-670MB...DIR/SPDPASY/70414 - 10158
KPP/78970 - SHORT...TO 500MB
KNEAS/SDM/NCO/NCEP

Excellent. Thanks.
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Surely not impossible for 92L to develop in the SE Caribbean. Felix proved that.


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Quoting Patrap:
Quoting Patrap:


If Im correct,..thats Lakeview I presume?





That Home is here or just outta frame to the left I believe. Pic from 31 Aug 2005

NOAA image,Breech,17th St Canal..31 Aug 2005
Sorry but I can not open attachments here for some reason. It has been nice discussing this common element with you. I will check in later this eve as I have to get some real work done. today. Have a good one, again nice talkin with ya.
Member Since: August 25, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 633
Quoting eyesontheweather:
My understanding is that the owners/residents were in the house during flood, took the ride across the street then were rescued via air lift Note hole cut in roof.
They were rescued by the NOFD as others assisted..

These Fireman did that rescue.
This is the only Video of a Katrina Breech as it occurred.No one in Lake view were air lifted,..that didnt occur there as most if not all were rescued by boat,Jet Ski or other by the Cajun Navy.





Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128645
Quoting 19N81W:
is it me or is 92L looking better and better over the last few hours?
is that ridge going to be strong enough to push it that far south?...what about the weakness pushing off FL right now?



Yes, 92L is organizing quite well today.. Notice some banding features to the northeast. If conditions stay and deep convection fires up tonight, TD by morning.
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Quoting atmoaggie:

That is the first thing I assume when I look at those...until they perform a bit better, anyway.
They have been really bad. Read that Japan-UCLA link I posted. They totally hindcasted the MJO phase and amplitude starting with the usual obs. And then successfully hindcasted cyclogenesis.

We have nothing currently operational I would want to use to undertake a project like that.


Wow that was incredible. I had no idea they currently were working on something that accurate. When is it going to operational? I know they mentioned the new supercomputer in 2014 and a 1km resolution would be simply incredible. But they also said its not necessary to have that supercomputer to run the current simulations? We need something like that, and we need it now.
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Quoting Patrap:


If Im correct,..thats Lakeview I presume?


Quoting eyesontheweather:
YES



That Home is here or just outta frame to the left I believe. Pic from 31 Aug 2005

NOAA image,Breech,17th St Canal..31 Aug 2005
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128645
If 92L continues to organize as it's doing now, a TD will be declared by tomorrow morning I assume. Just needs a burst of deep convection. There is already convection wrapping around the center, a very organized invest.

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is it me or is 92L looking better and better over the last few hours?
is that ridge going to be strong enough to push it that far south?...what about the weakness pushing off FL right now?

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Quoting atmoaggie:
Wow, check out the low - mid level winds at Guadeloupe!


Can that be right?

Nothing of the sort for Philipsburg:



Both are showing at least some shear and definitely some dry air aloft.



NOUS42 KWNO 081606
ADMNFD

SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE
NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS CAMP SPRINGS MD
1115 AM EDT THU OCT 08 2009
THE 12Z NCEP PRODUCTION CYCLE IS ON TIME.
RAOBS UPDATE...
MZT/76458 - 10159
MID/76644 - 10142
ACA/76805 - SHORT...TO 571MB
DDC/72451 - SHORT...TO 625MB
FFR/78897 - DELETED WINDS 850-670MB...DIR/SPDPASY/70414 - 10158
KPP/78970 - SHORT...TO 500MB
KNEAS/SDM/NCO/NCEP
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Quoting Patrap:
I was on that House,the roof....round Thursday or Friday the 2nd Of Sept.

Way before the Calvary arrived...

12th Street maybe if I remember well nuff..
My understanding is that the owners/residents were in the house during flood, took the ride across the street then were rescued via air lift Note hole cut in roof.
Member Since: August 25, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 633
Quoting eyesontheweather:
I have not seen the article or any other info re; this structure. My question is does this home float off the top of the pilings in the event that water is deeper or does it sink are there saftey measures in tack for the forces of higher tide vs. floatation?




nola.com article on the Home in the Lower 9th.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128645
159. JRRP
mmmmm like i said yesterday
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Speaking of blog rules...I'm surprised by this one:
6. No comments that contain only personal notes such as, "Good Morning!", or "You've got mail, X".

I thought it was often customary blog "netiquette" to let people know you might be around, or available for "consultation" -- am I wrong? I personally enjoy the "hale and hello's"...
Anyway, I'm guessing this rule is mostly enforced during busy weather events to keep the blog moving during the busy times.
Anybody ever been banned for a greeting?
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Quoting Patrap:
Which is probably the biggest problem with a floating structure. How do you anchor it in such a way that it is allowed to float, yet not become loose, floating debris itself?


" He designed a house that sits just a few steps off the ground, until – heaven forbid – the flood waters start to sweep across the lowlands again. If that happens, the house is meant to float, rising gently on a pair of steel poles mounted at either end. Not 5 feet, not 8; Mayne’s house would float up to 12 feet above the waters. "
I have not seen the article or any other info re; this structure. My question is does this home float off the top of the pilings in the event that water is deeper or does it sink are there saftey measures in tack for the forces of higher tide vs. floatation?
Member Since: August 25, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 633
Afternoon,both systems look a mess this morning.Watch and wait for any better conditions at least through the weekend.
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I was on that House,the roof....round Thursday or Friday the 2nd Of Sept 2005.

Way before the Calvary arrived...

12th Street maybe if I remember well nuff..
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128645


Seismic Monitor

AOI

AOI

Humor in Comments
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Quoting Patrap:


If Im correct,..thats Lakeview I presume?
YES
Member Since: August 25, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 633
Quoting Patrap:
Which is probably the biggest problem with a floating structure. How do you anchor it in such a way that it is allowed to float, yet not become loose, floating debris itself?


" He designed a house that sits just a few steps off the ground, until – heaven forbid – the flood waters start to sweep across the lowlands again. If that happens, the house is meant to float, rising gently on a pair of steel poles mounted at either end. Not 5 feet, not 8; Mayne’s house would float up to 12 feet above the waters. "

And hopefully not break free or beat itself to shreads against something else nearby.
If it broke free, everyone else around it would be better served if that house sunk.

If we ever wanted to have a house that can rise above the 30 foot peak surge that we know is possible...that is a lot of lateral movement that must not be allowed for the reasons I mentioned.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.