Henri nearly dead

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:38 PM GMT on October 08, 2009

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Tropical Depression Henri continues to suffer from high wind shear of 20 knots, and appears on its way to dissipation. Visible satellite loops show that the shear has exposed Henri's low level center to view, and this center has become less circular and not as well defined. Henri's heavy thunderstorms have been shrinking in areal coverage and intensity, and are displaced from the center--signs of a highly sheared tropical storm that has little time left to live.

All of the reliable global computer models show weakening and dissipation of Henri by Friday, due to high wind shear. Wind shear in the vicinity of Henri's remains is predicted to fall to the moderate range by Saturday, but at that time it appears that the storm will be moving over the Dominican Republic, which will disrupt whatever is left of the storm's circulation. Henri's remains may bring heavy rains of 2 - 4 inches the the Dominican Republic and Haiti Saturday through Monday. By Tuesday, the remains of Henri will likely be moving across Florida and/or Cuba and into the Gulf of Mexico, where we will need to watch the system for re-development.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Henri (top) and a new tropical wave we're watching (bottom). The tropical wave south of Henri, just off the coast of South America, has become disorganized.

Tropical wave south of Henri
A tropical wave south of Henri, just north of the coast of South America and a few hundred miles east-southeast of the southernmost Lesser Antilles Islands, has grown less organized since yesterday. Both the areal coverage and intensity of the heavy thunderstorm activity has decreased, and there are no signs of organization to the cloud pattern. This wave is under about 10 knots of wind shear, but is too close to the Equator to be able to take advantage of the Earth's spin to help it spin up into a tropical depression very quickly. Also, the wave may pull in some dry, stable air from South America as it scoots just north of the coast over the next few days. NHC is giving this disturbance a low (less than 30% chance) or developing into a tropical depression by Saturday. There are no computer models showing development of this system.


Figure 2. Tropical Storm Parma (left) and Typhoon Melor (right) on October 7, 2009. At the time, Melor was a Category 4 typhoon with 135 mph winds, and Parma was a tropical storm with 60 mph winds. The two storms were close enough together that they rotated around a common center counter-clockwise, in an interaction known as the Fujiwara Effect. This forced Parma to reverse course and pass over the Philippines from west to east, after the storm had already crossed the islands from east to west. Now that Melor is gone, Parma is crossing the Philippines once more from east to west. Image credit: NASA Earth Observatory.

Typhoon Melor
Typhoon Melor made landfall yesterday on Japan's Honshu Island south of Osaka as a Category 1 typhoon with 85 mph winds. The typhoon killed two people and caused some moderate damage to the coastal region of southern Japan where it came ashore.

In the Philippines, Tropical Depression Parma is making its third traverse over the Philippines' Luzon Island. is expected to dump up to six more inches of rain today over the already sodden portions of northern Luzon. The storm is being blamed for 22 deaths and millions in agricultural damage.

Jeff Masters

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Projected highs next week for me are in the 50's,with possible snow flakes,hard to think about the tropics with that kind of weather,but still enjoy watching these possibilities
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It's interesting to note that their WNW movement takes it over significant land. Hmm...
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Anyone post the TWO?

NHC not impressed with 92L, basically saying S America will kill all chances it has to develop.
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Quoting Patrap:
Very August,late Like here Uptown NOLA as well. 91 F and Muggy Duggy.


And this PWS 28 Rel Hum is a error..LOL




Pat, you'd feel right at home here in Fort Worth:

Not quite as humid, but nice and sticky for here
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On the LakeFront a better actual update.
Current Conditions New Orleans Lakefront, Louisiana (Airport) Updated: 20 min 30 sec ago Scattered Clouds 91 °F Scattered Clouds Humidity: 63% Dew Point: 77 °F

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129833
Looks like the NHC (Blake) Thinks this will head toward Trinidad and Tobago and then into South America.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT THU OCT 8 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION HENRI...LOCATED ABOUT 130 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.

A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE CENTERED ABOUT 250 MILES EAST OF THE
SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH THIS SYSTEM IS SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF
ORGANIZATION...DEVELOPMENT IS NOT ANTICIPATED BEFORE IT INTERACTS
WITH LAND LATER THIS EVENING
. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 20 TO 25 MPH.
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS
ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND NORTHERN VENEZUELA LATER
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
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Very August,late Like here Uptown NOLA as well. 91 F and Muggy Duggy.


And this PWS 28 Rel Hum is a error..LOL


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129833
Hey 456, try this link
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Quoting 1900hurricane:

At least the dewpoint is below 80*F there today. For the past few days temps and dewpoints in Bay City have been over 90*F and 80*F, respectively, which caused the heat index to push 110*F!


I'll pass on that one!
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Quoting barbadosjulie:
Outside is beautiful.....A little to beautiful, its sweltering here the last week we need this rain.


Hey, Saint Kitts here asking if you have any information on the upcoming Doppler radar for Barbados.
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Outside is beautiful.....A little to beautiful, its sweltering here the last week we need this rain.
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Quoting tornadodude:
Bay City Texas
Lat: 28.97 Lon: -95.86 Elev: 46
Last Update on Oct 8, 12:45 pm CDT

Mostly Cloudy

89 °F
(32 °C)
Humidity: 74 %
Wind Speed: S 20 G 29 MPH
Barometer: 29.91"
Dewpoint: 79 °F (26 °C)
Heat Index: 105 °F (41 °C)
Visibility: 10.00 mi.

At least the dewpoint is below 80*F there today. For the past few days temps and dewpoints in Bay City have been over 90*F and 80*F, respectively, which caused the heat index to push 110*F!
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Bay City Texas
Lat: 28.97 Lon: -95.86 Elev: 46
Last Update on Oct 8, 12:45 pm CDT

Mostly Cloudy

89 °F
(32 °C)
Humidity: 74 %
Wind Speed: S 20 G 29 MPH
Barometer: 29.91"
Dewpoint: 79 °F (26 °C)
Heat Index: 105 °F (41 °C)
Visibility: 10.00 mi.
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Quoting HIEXPRESS:
It looks like the two examples of storms that we've seen from that area did two things.

1. Became majors.
2. stayed way south on a primarily westward track.


None of those storm tracks were During an ElNino Period


Yeah, I wasn't sure of the analog years when I pulled those, so I just picked a few that were recent. It was actually quite hard finding a storm like that like that during those analog years (mainly because no storms developed/passed through that region: further evidence to the aria's typical hostility), but I was able find one particularly interesting one: Hurricane Dog of 1951. Dog entered the Central/Southern Caribbean as a Category 3 Hurricane and dissipated before getting a chance to cross all the way through. I don't have a definitive answer to why this may be, but I suspect that an El Nino-enhanced Columbian Low is probably a factor.

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thanks...
kinda looks like the HWRF takes it pass Jamaica but does not really develop it much
Member Since: August 24, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 439
Quoting surfsidesindy:
It is SWELTERING here in central Florida!


it's HOT here in hollywood, fl
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Quoting 19N81W:
has the GFS/GFDL/EURO/NOGAPS put out a track on 92L yet?


12Z GFDL

12Z HWRF
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Quoting StormW:
Afternoon, 456!


Afternoon, do you know about the Barbados radar as yet?
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It is SWELTERING here in central Florida!
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Quoting Orcasystems:


I am alive and kicking.. looking at the models...I figured I would give Flood something to work on with the math :)


Thanks, Orca...I knew I could count on you...LOL
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has the GFS/GFDL/EURO/NOGAPS put out a track on 92L yet?
Member Since: August 24, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 439
we will take the rain but the wind can stay away...no evac my credit card wont take it..but it seems that more and more of the contributing factors that make a hurricane come this way are coming into place.
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Quoting Orcasystems:


I am alive and kicking.. looking at the models...I figured I would give Flood something to work on with the math :)


good to hear (:
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Some of the lowest shear values of the season

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Quoting tornadodude:


haha me too,

how's it going Orca?


I am alive and kicking.. looking at the models...I figured I would give Flood something to work on with the math :)
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26516
Quoting Seflhurricane:
weather what are the chances of 92L reaching the western carribean without it affecting central america


50/50...it all depends on the ridging of the deep layer high. If 92L gets caught in the return flow, its GOM bound, if ridging remains in place, it might take a track slightly north of Felix, more Dean/Emily type. As time goes on, we will get clearer data.
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Quoting HIEXPRESS:
It looks like the two examples of storms that we've seen from that area did two things.

1. Became majors.
2. stayed way south on a primarily westward track.



Can I have a link that NINO graph.
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Quoting Weather456:
Good afternoon all
weather what are the chances of 92L reaching the western carribean without it affecting central america
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221. xcool
Invest 92L.
is slowly becoming better organized

at 5.00pm i seeing a red
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
For those saying the NHC nailed it again, they didn't. The only storm they nailed this year was Bill. The NHC did not expect Henri to make it to 50 mph. yesterday morning. It shows you how unpredictable weather really is.
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looks like 92L is getting its act together , climatologically would 92L be pulled more towards the nw/wnw towards jamaica and the western carribean??????
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It looks like the two examples of storms that we've seen from that area did two things.

1. Became majors.
2. stayed way south on a primarily westward track.

Quoting 1900hurricane:

Indeed those two storms did manage to get through there. However, the area does tend to be an unfavorable area for storms due to the Columbian Low. More often than not, storms passing through that area don't fair well, especially later in the season. Examples include Hurricane Joyce (2000) and Tropical Storm Jerry (2001)

None of those storm tracks were During an ElNino Period

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217. xcool
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Look at where the tropical wave is now located. They appear to head into SA but they always amplified northward at the last minute.
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Quoting Weather456:
Good afternoon all


Aloha
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Good afternoon all
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Anyone. RE diagram in post #59. How can the mid level circulation be blown off the low level circulation and its center by wind shear and the whole area remain one storm, i.e. Henri? Can one level of circulation persist away from its counterparts or do they become separate entities?
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Quoting Orcasystems:


Its easy to figure out how the pilings will do based on the ground composition :)



ROFLMAO... I hate math


haha me too,

how's it going Orca?
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Quoting Floodman:


Again the advantage of the floating design is the same advantage a houseboat would have: it floats and in that way avoids major structural damage. The soil is the thing, man...bad alluvial soils. Most of SE Louisiana is ex-Mississippi river delta and comprised of sand, silt and decaying vegetable matter...not a good choice for piering, as piering presents large weight loads on fixed points. Water saturated soils of this type liquefy rather than run off and they become...mud


Its easy to figure out how the pilings will do based on the ground composition :)



ROFLMAO... I hate math
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26516
Quoting iluvjess:
Did not mean to start such a debate. lol. I just can't figure out the advanatge to floating vs fixed elevation. For example... 6 ft water rise with floating house guarantees that your house will float on the surface exposing the entire extererior surface to debris and exposing the structure of your house and its contents to verticle motion and horizontal motion as it "floats" on the constantly moving water. Now, 6 ft wter rise with fixed elevation on 12' high x 36" wide piers... only the piers are exposed to debris (much less surface area than the entire home), no verticle or horizontal motion too the structure of the home or the contents. And, I'm sure that standard fixed pier elevation is much more affordable than the floating foundation. I think that the science end of it is pretty neat but why spend all the money and time to develope what atleast appears to be an inferior design to that of the original fixed elevation tequnique?


Again the advantage of the floating design is the same advantage a houseboat would have: it floats and in that way avoids major structural damage. The soil is the thing, man...bad alluvial soils. Most of SE Louisiana is ex-Mississippi river delta and comprised of sand, silt and decaying vegetable matter...not a good choice for piering, as piering presents large weight loads on fixed points. Water saturated soils of this type liquefy rather than run off and they become...mud
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Quoting OSUWXGUY:
One possible reason for the uptick in convection with 92L is increasing surface convergence as it approaches the southern Lesser Antilles/north coast of South America.

Think of the north/south oriented island chain of the Lesser Antilles a bit like a dam. Easterly trade winds from the Atlantic "pile up" east of the islands (dam) and then once they pass over the dam (islands) they accelerate through the funneling effect between South America/Puerto Rico and Hispaniola.

This piling up slightly before or over the islands is why we frequently see development just to the east of the islands, but MUCH less frequently to the west.

This surface convergence (piling up) of the air forces thunderstorm activity, whereas the divergence caused by the acceleration after the islands causes an overall decrease in convection.


What ever the reason it is certainly giving 92l some new life.
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Quoting tmangray:
The remnants of Typhoon Melor are currently predicted by the NWS to impact Northern California around Columbus Day as part of the rainy season's first significant storm. There is some similarity in the scenario to the powerful Columbus Day Storm of 1962 in which ex-Typhoon Freda merged with and pumped up a frontal system along the West Coast from California to Washington. Winds were clocked at nearly 180 mph at Cape Blanco on the Oregon Coast. Thousands of acres of timber fell due to this storm. I personally recall the storm as a young child in the SF Bay Area.

It remains to be seen if this storm will even come close, but they have already amped up the forecast, including heavy rain and high winds. This being an El Nino year, I believe the forecast.


that would definitely not be good, they could use the rain, but the wind would be ridiculous
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The remnants of Typhoon Melor are currently predicted by the NWS to impact Northern California around Columbus Day as part of the rainy season's first significant storm. There is some similarity in the scenario to the powerful Columbus Day Storm of 1962 in which ex-Typhoon Freda merged with and pumped up a frontal system along the West Coast from California to Washington. Winds were clocked at nearly 180 mph at Cape Blanco on the Oregon Coast. Thousands of acres of timber fell due to this storm. I personally recall the storm as a young child in the SF Bay Area.

It remains to be seen if this storm will even come close, but they have already amped up the forecast, including heavy rain and high winds. This being an El Nino year, I believe the forecast.
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I think it will be raining for awhile
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One possible reason for the uptick in convection with 92L is increasing surface convergence as it approaches the southern Lesser Antilles/north coast of South America.

Think of the north/south oriented island chain of the Lesser Antilles a bit like a dam. Easterly trade winds from the Atlantic "pile up" east of the islands (dam) and then once they pass over the dam (islands) they accelerate through the funneling effect between South America/Puerto Rico and Hispaniola.

This piling up slightly before or over the islands is why we frequently see development just to the east of the islands, but MUCH less frequently to the west.

This surface convergence (piling up) of the air forces thunderstorm activity, whereas the divergence caused by the acceleration after the islands causes an overall decrease in convection.
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Quoting markymark1973:
NHC nailed another one and 92L is headed west towards the Pacific. Models hinting some lowering pressures in the western Caribbean in about 10 days. There is about another 2 week window for some possible development then the season is over. Looking forward to 2010. This season has been year of the naked swirls and boring pathetic shredded storms.


Another troll who is upset the season was slow. Son, I just hope your even more upset next year.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24574
Quoting iluvjess:
From what I read Bradd had several homes to choose from. All of the rest were elevated on fixed piers. Why choose the only one that has this floating design? What is the advantage to having a design that virually gauarantees your home will be sitting directly on top of any rising and moving water. Seems to me that permanent elevation is a much lower risk. I'm willing to bet that NFIP would concur. While I think that from a technological standpoint the design is very interesting, I just do not see any advantages to floating VS fixed elevation. Some of the other features of this house are very nice including built in generators, water recycling, etc. Just take the house and put it on 15 ft piers and you have a win-win.


The issue with fixed piers is the issue that destroyed many homes in NOLA during Katrina: poor foundation soils inundated with brackish water, causing the pier system to be partially or wholly compromised, causing severe structural damage to the home. A floating design would avoid the risk of damage due to foundation compromise. The only way to relieve the foundation soil issue is to pound the piers into the soil, but even that is not safe; I saw many homes built to withstand 100 year floods lose their foundation or shift on compromised piers. The bottom line is that the soils in the NOLA area are poorly suited to supporting any type of structure; the only flooded areas of NOLA that avoided large scale, widespread losses due to foundation issues are the oldest settled areas...
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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