Henri nearly dead

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:38 PM GMT on October 08, 2009

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Tropical Depression Henri continues to suffer from high wind shear of 20 knots, and appears on its way to dissipation. Visible satellite loops show that the shear has exposed Henri's low level center to view, and this center has become less circular and not as well defined. Henri's heavy thunderstorms have been shrinking in areal coverage and intensity, and are displaced from the center--signs of a highly sheared tropical storm that has little time left to live.

All of the reliable global computer models show weakening and dissipation of Henri by Friday, due to high wind shear. Wind shear in the vicinity of Henri's remains is predicted to fall to the moderate range by Saturday, but at that time it appears that the storm will be moving over the Dominican Republic, which will disrupt whatever is left of the storm's circulation. Henri's remains may bring heavy rains of 2 - 4 inches the the Dominican Republic and Haiti Saturday through Monday. By Tuesday, the remains of Henri will likely be moving across Florida and/or Cuba and into the Gulf of Mexico, where we will need to watch the system for re-development.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Henri (top) and a new tropical wave we're watching (bottom). The tropical wave south of Henri, just off the coast of South America, has become disorganized.

Tropical wave south of Henri
A tropical wave south of Henri, just north of the coast of South America and a few hundred miles east-southeast of the southernmost Lesser Antilles Islands, has grown less organized since yesterday. Both the areal coverage and intensity of the heavy thunderstorm activity has decreased, and there are no signs of organization to the cloud pattern. This wave is under about 10 knots of wind shear, but is too close to the Equator to be able to take advantage of the Earth's spin to help it spin up into a tropical depression very quickly. Also, the wave may pull in some dry, stable air from South America as it scoots just north of the coast over the next few days. NHC is giving this disturbance a low (less than 30% chance) or developing into a tropical depression by Saturday. There are no computer models showing development of this system.


Figure 2. Tropical Storm Parma (left) and Typhoon Melor (right) on October 7, 2009. At the time, Melor was a Category 4 typhoon with 135 mph winds, and Parma was a tropical storm with 60 mph winds. The two storms were close enough together that they rotated around a common center counter-clockwise, in an interaction known as the Fujiwara Effect. This forced Parma to reverse course and pass over the Philippines from west to east, after the storm had already crossed the islands from east to west. Now that Melor is gone, Parma is crossing the Philippines once more from east to west. Image credit: NASA Earth Observatory.

Typhoon Melor
Typhoon Melor made landfall yesterday on Japan's Honshu Island south of Osaka as a Category 1 typhoon with 85 mph winds. The typhoon killed two people and caused some moderate damage to the coastal region of southern Japan where it came ashore.

In the Philippines, Tropical Depression Parma is making its third traverse over the Philippines' Luzon Island. is expected to dump up to six more inches of rain today over the already sodden portions of northern Luzon. The storm is being blamed for 22 deaths and millions in agricultural damage.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting tornadodude:


It is so weird how several of the systems this year have been doing the opposite of the D-max-D-min cycles


You make a great point and I was thinking the same thing...Basically pulsing in a pattern opposite of the usual D cycles....If one of "these" systems actually make hurricane status, I'm sure a few of the mets will try to write a journal article on this anomoly.
Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 9264
IMO 92L won't be an issue for the GOM. HP is strong and should steer it W exiting into the pacific. The strong cold front GFS showed moving into the GOM next week looks more doubtful now. Things can always change though. The NHC has been right on the $ so far this year with their forecasts. Even if the timing with intensity and exact tracks were off a little at times it all materialized in the end. Can't expect them to nail everything 100% with these weak on and off pulsing shear shredded storms.
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300. xcool
WeatherStudent that old post .sorry
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting kmanislander:


92L is close to 2000 miles away from me at this time. If it develops and tracks generally WNW then yes, it might pose a threat in a few days. This time of year I would expect a track WNW to NW through the Caribbean and into the GOM or N towards Fla.

This is all several days away so at this point would only be pure speculation with no basis for doing so. Wait and watch.
Afternoon Kman.Well observed and noted/will know if it poses any future threat after it gets a bit more westward (or W-Northwestward)
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Quoting weathermanwannabe:


Look good yesterday to then it ramped down in the early am and ramping up again now. I'll be more convinced about possible further development after the pass between SA and the Windwards by tommorow morning. With warm SSTs and condusive sheer ahead (no major impediments except for the land interaction) tommorow may be the day one way or the other.


It is so weird how several of the systems this year have been doing the opposite of the D-max-D-min cycles
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295. xcool
weathermanwannabe YEAH.
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting tornadodude:


hey! well, I got a new job (:, you missed Grace, Henri, and now we have 92L, you missed Tacoman (StormTop) ranting on and on about how we would not have anymore storms (we have had 2 since then LOL)


Congrats Matt. I know you will do a great job. Tacoman? thats the best he can do? sigh...well i am seeing the end of henri. how long now 92L been around?
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Quoting StormW:


Reads TWO (shakes head). Looks at mean layer, RGB and visible satellite...(hits head on keyboard).


after you get some aspirin for your new splitting headache lol, could you elaborate on your apparent frustration from the NHCs TWO?
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Quoting xcool:
oh wow 92L Convection flared up


Look good yesterday to then it ramped down in the early am and ramping up again now. I'll be more convinced about possible further development after the pass between SA and the Windwards by tommorow morning. With warm SSTs and condusive sheer ahead (no major impediments except for the land interaction) tommorow may be the day one way or the other.
Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 9264
291. xcool
WHXX01 KWBC 081828
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1828 UTC THU OCT 8 2009

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL922009) 20091008 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
091008 1800 091009 0600 091009 1800 091010 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 9.8N 58.3W 10.5N 62.0W 11.2N 65.1W 11.4N 68.0W
BAMD 9.8N 58.3W 10.7N 62.1W 11.1N 65.5W 10.9N 68.7W
BAMM 9.8N 58.3W 10.6N 62.0W 11.1N 65.4W 11.2N 68.7W
LBAR 9.8N 58.3W 10.7N 62.1W 11.5N 65.8W 11.8N 69.5W
SHIP 25KTS 29KTS 39KTS 48KTS
DSHP 25KTS 28KTS 38KTS 47KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
091010 1800 091011 1800 091012 1800 091013 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 11.7N 70.5W 10.6N 76.5W 9.6N 81.9W 8.1N 86.5W
BAMD 10.5N 72.0W 9.0N 78.2W 7.4N 83.6W 6.5N 88.2W
BAMM 11.3N 72.0W 10.2N 78.5W 8.5N 84.5W 7.0N 89.3W
LBAR 11.8N 72.9W 11.3N 78.7W 10.3N 84.2W .0N .0W
SHIP 58KTS 81KTS 93KTS 99KTS
DSHP 42KTS 53KTS 52KTS 59KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 9.8N LONCUR = 58.3W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 22KT
LATM12 = 9.2N LONM12 = 54.2W DIRM12 = 276DEG SPDM12 = 24KT
LATM24 = 8.4N LONM24 = 49.5W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 20NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
289. xcool
AL, 92, 2009100818, , BEST, 0, 98N, 583W, 25, 1010, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 120
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting kmanislander:
Read that TWO carefully. Technically it is correct. Development is not expected BEFORE it interacts with land later this evening. With only a few hours before interaction with land what else did anyone expect Blake to say ??.

He did not go on to say anything about what it may do AFTER such interaction ends and it gains some latitude away from the South American coastline.


You're right Kman. Although the term land interaction is ambiguous as well. Anywhere near land a tropical disturbance will be impacted by the frictional effects of the land at the very least.

I read it as land interaction - disruption of any chance to organize. But maybe I should have read it as you have...
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Quoting TriniGirl26:


hey matt, what have i miss?


hey! well, I got a new job (:, you missed Grace, Henri, and now we have 92L, you missed Tacoman (StormTop) ranting on and on about how we would not have anymore storms (we have had 2 since then LOL)
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286. xcool
oh wow 92L Convection flared up
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting tornadodude:


one advantage for a floating house tho is that of the piers do break, then the house still stays afloat. now if it is just raised on piers, and they break, then the house crashes into the water, right?


hey matt, what have i miss?
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Quoting StormW:


Reads TWO (shakes head). Looks at mean layer, RGB and visible satellite...(hits head on keyboard).


LOL. Yeah I don't know. If I had to place a center on the rotary thunderstorm activity it would be at 11N 57.5W.

If it were to get to 12N it could pretty much bypass all of South America with a west heading (not WSW obviously). There is still a bit of a weakness between the two ridge centers caused by Henri. Could it be good for another degree north...I would think so...but who knows...
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AL,10,2009100818,BEST,0,202N,622W,25,1012,DB
Goodbye Henri. He fought longer than i expected.
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Quoting WeatherStudent:


KMan, do you believe that this system might pose a threat to your country down the road, or do you think that it'll stay well south of your area, as the early model runs are depicting?


92L is close to 2000 miles away from me at this time. If it develops and tracks generally WNW then yes, it might pose a threat in a few days. This time of year I would expect a track WNW to NW through the Caribbean and into the GOM or N towards Fla.

This is all several days away so at this point would only be pure speculation with no basis for doing so. Wait and watch.
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Quoting iluvjess:


I understand that. However, the floating design is still based on the house rising on "two guided peirs" that will be driven into the same soil! if these piers will hold it in place as it rises then put the darn house up there too begin with. If what you are saying is valid then you would have to agree that there is still no advantage to the floating house because the floating house is still anchored to guides that are driven in the same soil.


one advantage for a floating house tho is that of the piers do break, then the house still stays afloat. now if it is just raised on piers, and they break, then the house crashes into the water, right?
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280. xcool
btwntx08 oh nooo
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting Floodman:


Again the advantage of the floating design is the same advantage a houseboat would have: it floats and in that way avoids major structural damage. The soil is the thing, man...bad alluvial soils. Most of SE Louisiana is ex-Mississippi river delta and comprised of sand, silt and decaying vegetable matter...not a good choice for piering, as piering presents large weight loads on fixed points. Water saturated soils of this type liquefy rather than run off and they become...mud


I understand that. However, the floating design is still based on the house rising on "two guided peirs" that will be driven into the same soil! if these piers will hold it in place as it rises then put the darn house up there too begin with. If what you are saying is valid then you would have to agree that there is still no advantage to the floating house because the floating house is still anchored to guides that are driven in the same soil.
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Quoting StormW:


Reads TWO (shakes head). Looks at mean layer, RGB and visible satellite...(hits head on keyboard).


UUUHHHH Storm, does that mean you don't agree??? LOL
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GOM 84 Hour Wind Forecast Model,NAM
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Quoting btwntx08:
check what denver has
Denver Centennial, Colorado (Airport)
Updated: 20 min 18 sec ago
34 °F
Light Snow Mist
Windchill: 27 °F
Humidity: 87%
Dew Point: 30 °F
Wind: 8 mph from the NNE

Pressure: 30.05 in (Falling)
Visibility: 1.5 miles



Possible snow when the Patriots and Denver play on sunday.
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Read that TWO carefully. Technically it is correct. Development is not expected BEFORE it interacts with land later this evening. With only a few hours before interaction with land what else did anyone expect Blake to say ??.

He did not go on to say anything about what it may do AFTER such interaction ends and it gains some latitude away from the South American coastline.
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Quoting StormW:


Reads TWO (shakes head). Looks at mean layer, RGB and visible satellite...(hits head on keyboard).


Guess it might depend on how much organization occurs over the next 24 hours; these systems sometimes have a way of feeling the path of least resistance and it really depends, if it continues to develop, "where" a possible center or circulation may form. If a COC were to form off the coast SA, it may survive the scrape with land intact. Too early right now to speculate but I will be curious to see if the bulk of convection remains off the coast during passage.
Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 9264
thanks stormw...haven't been on the site for the last week or so...juggling work and school right now. Just got a few minutes and came on the site and what can i see but 92L. I don't have any details on it hence my questions. Thanks for the update
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Quoting nishinigami:


We are trying to Pat :)

I was wondering about the SST in the gulf. "If" something were to form or make it to the gulf, has the water temperature dropped any at all?



WAVCIS Lab by LSU ESL


GOM 60 Hour Water Surface Temperature Forecast
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Wouldn't it figure if 92L develops and completely misses South America.. that would be 3 strikes in a row for the NHC.
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Lafayette, Purdue University Airport
Lat: 40.43 Lon: -86.93 Elev: 623
Last Update on Oct 8, 1:54 pm EDT

Rain Fog/Mist

52 °F
(11 °C)
Humidity: 86 %
Wind Speed: E 5 MPH
Barometer: 29.99" (1015.6 mb)
Dewpoint: 48 °F (9 °C)
Wind Chill: 51 °F (11 °C)
Visibility: 2.00 mi
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Quoting Patrap:


Hot too I see down in da Parish.
Stay Cool and be cool !!!


We are trying to Pat :)

I was wondering about the SST in the gulf. "If" something were to form or make it to the gulf, has the water temperature dropped any at all?
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Quoting StormW:


Reads TWO (shakes head). Looks at mean layer, RGB and visible satellite...(hits head on keyboard).


After doing that ,don't be surprised strange characters appear when you type,not to mention giving you pretty serious headache.
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good evening all? where did 92L come from? And why is it so close to Trinidad? Is it developing or is it going to die a most painful death? PS. Trinidad have hot sun
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Quoting nishinigami:
Hey Pat,

Down here in Plaquemines it is:
Concession, Belle Chasse, Louisiana (PWS)
Updated: 1 sec ago
Mostly Cloudy
92.8 °F
Mostly Cloudy
Humidity: 66%
Dew Point: 80 °F
Wind: 11.0 mph from the SSE
Wind Gust: 14.0 mph
Pressure: 29.98 in (Falling)
Heat Index: 112 °F


Hot too I see down in da Parish.
Stay Cool and be cool !!!
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Looks like Henri is a remnant low now. It's dead. Link
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Portlight Featured WU Blog Update

Link

We welcome your comments...except atmo...he just can't seem to behave...
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Trinidad weather now-
temp 93f
humid. 46%
wind east 13 mph
press. 1013 or 2991

enter PIARCO in search box top of this page.
so far, a lovely day. Few clouds. Some tall cumulus to the east, visible.
If things change, will let you know.
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24452
Hey Pat,

Down here in Plaquemines it is:
Concession, Belle Chasse, Louisiana (PWS)
Updated: 1 sec ago
Mostly Cloudy
92.8 °F
Mostly Cloudy
Humidity: 66%
Dew Point: 80 °F
Wind: 11.0 mph from the SSE
Wind Gust: 14.0 mph
Pressure: 29.98 in (Falling)
Heat Index: 112 °F
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Hurricane Juan near peak intensity

Formed October 26, 1985
Dissipated November 1, 1985
Highest
winds
85 mph (140 km/h) (1-minute sustained)
Lowest pressure 971 mbar (hPa; 28.67 inHg)
Fatalities 24 direct
Damage $1.5 billion (1985 USD)
$3 billion (2009 USD)
Areas
affected Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Florida Panhandle

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Seismic Monitor

AOI

AOI

Humor in Comments
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
Projected highs next week for me are in the 50's,with possible snow flakes,hard to think about the tropics with that kind of weather,but still enjoy watching these possibilities
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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