Henri nearly dead

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:38 PM GMT on October 08, 2009

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Tropical Depression Henri continues to suffer from high wind shear of 20 knots, and appears on its way to dissipation. Visible satellite loops show that the shear has exposed Henri's low level center to view, and this center has become less circular and not as well defined. Henri's heavy thunderstorms have been shrinking in areal coverage and intensity, and are displaced from the center--signs of a highly sheared tropical storm that has little time left to live.

All of the reliable global computer models show weakening and dissipation of Henri by Friday, due to high wind shear. Wind shear in the vicinity of Henri's remains is predicted to fall to the moderate range by Saturday, but at that time it appears that the storm will be moving over the Dominican Republic, which will disrupt whatever is left of the storm's circulation. Henri's remains may bring heavy rains of 2 - 4 inches the the Dominican Republic and Haiti Saturday through Monday. By Tuesday, the remains of Henri will likely be moving across Florida and/or Cuba and into the Gulf of Mexico, where we will need to watch the system for re-development.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Henri (top) and a new tropical wave we're watching (bottom). The tropical wave south of Henri, just off the coast of South America, has become disorganized.

Tropical wave south of Henri
A tropical wave south of Henri, just north of the coast of South America and a few hundred miles east-southeast of the southernmost Lesser Antilles Islands, has grown less organized since yesterday. Both the areal coverage and intensity of the heavy thunderstorm activity has decreased, and there are no signs of organization to the cloud pattern. This wave is under about 10 knots of wind shear, but is too close to the Equator to be able to take advantage of the Earth's spin to help it spin up into a tropical depression very quickly. Also, the wave may pull in some dry, stable air from South America as it scoots just north of the coast over the next few days. NHC is giving this disturbance a low (less than 30% chance) or developing into a tropical depression by Saturday. There are no computer models showing development of this system.


Figure 2. Tropical Storm Parma (left) and Typhoon Melor (right) on October 7, 2009. At the time, Melor was a Category 4 typhoon with 135 mph winds, and Parma was a tropical storm with 60 mph winds. The two storms were close enough together that they rotated around a common center counter-clockwise, in an interaction known as the Fujiwara Effect. This forced Parma to reverse course and pass over the Philippines from west to east, after the storm had already crossed the islands from east to west. Now that Melor is gone, Parma is crossing the Philippines once more from east to west. Image credit: NASA Earth Observatory.

Typhoon Melor
Typhoon Melor made landfall yesterday on Japan's Honshu Island south of Osaka as a Category 1 typhoon with 85 mph winds. The typhoon killed two people and caused some moderate damage to the coastal region of southern Japan where it came ashore.

In the Philippines, Tropical Depression Parma is making its third traverse over the Philippines' Luzon Island. is expected to dump up to six more inches of rain today over the already sodden portions of northern Luzon. The storm is being blamed for 22 deaths and millions in agricultural damage.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting StormChaser81:


I know the type of classes your taking at purdue and they are a lot more creditable than the college he is attending. Purdue is in the top for Meteorology.


yeah, he was right about that one though, I was thinking of East Coast troughs, but either way it doesnt matter, he is just trying to start a "fight" and thinks he can appear smarter by using fancy jargon
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8357
Quoting Floodman:


Those forecast points are based on a somewhat *ahem* stronger system; I think the points were cast when the thinking was what will a TS do in this environment


Those forecast points were based on a weak system, which it is. However, they did not account for the unexpected weakness currently to the systems N.
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that being said WS had no right to treat you the way he did, he has been reported for his attitude
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Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:
332 tornadodude

The troughs they refer to in your terminology are ones that come off the east coast of the US, and they also refer to storms that are coming from the west towards the SE US. In that scenario they do indeed deflect storms away from the US

However; troughs also draw storms from the Caribbean further north. A great example of this is Wilma, but there are many examples of storms that have been drawn into the Gulf due directly to a trough or due to a weakness in the ridge that the trough creates.


ah ok, thanks for the explanation. makes sense, still doesnt let me respect WS lol
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8357
Quoting tornadodude:
thanks StormChaser81 (:



I know the type of classes your taking at purdue and they are a lot more creditable than the college he is attending. Purdue is in the top for Meteorology.
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Quoting DDR:
Good evening all(from Trinidad)
I see we have 92L,i'll keep you update as it passes overhead.


Thanks DDR! Enjoy the stormy weather... I'm kinda jealous. No good thunderstorms all summer up here in Ohio, US.
332 tornadodude

The troughs they refer to in your terminology are ones that come off the east coast of the US, and they also refer to storms that are coming from the west towards the SE US. In that scenario they do indeed deflect storms away from the US

However; troughs also draw storms from the Caribbean further north. A great example of this is Wilma, but there are many examples of storms that have been drawn into the Gulf due directly to a trough or due to a weakness in the ridge that the trough creates.
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thanks StormChaser81 (:

Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8357
Int 2 US 0
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Quoting WeatherStudent:
you're still wrong, son. take an intro. to met. course 101, it'll do you some good, boy.


LOL
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8357
Quoting WeatherStudent:
you're still wrong, son. take an intro. to met. course 101, it'll do you some good, boy.


Tornado dude knows his stuff a lot more than you do. You need to pick another major. Like Basket weaving. At least if you screw up it will be a crappy basket at stake.
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Quoting pearlandaggie:
337. respond to what? oh...LOL


LOL yeah, I swear he will probably be next on my ignore list
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337. respond to what? oh...LOL
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Is there even a reason to respond? no LOL
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336. DDR
Good evening all(from Trinidad)
I see we have 92L,i'll keep you update as it passes overhead.
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331. and slow-moving at that :) LOL
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Quoting WeatherStudent:


No my brother, does are only ridges that do stuff like that. Fronts/throughts have the tendency to pull everything towards them, northward, like a magnet, almost. So there you have it, LMAO.


I'm not your brother, also read this (number 19)
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Quoting pearlandaggie:
LOL @ 326. shame, shame :)


A convenient target is still a target, yes? LOL
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Quoting tornadodude:


wont the cold fronts keep 92L south?


No, conveniently they will serve to feed his paranoia and draw it straight into...what, Hollywood FL, WSJFV?
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LOL @ 326. shame, shame :)
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Quoting jurakantaino:
I have to chuckles , even the little swirl (ex-Henri)is against the NHC forecast track, now is moving completely NW, way north than the NHC,trops FCSP...projects,,,


Those forecast points are based on a somewhat *ahem* stronger system; I think the points were cast when the thinking was what will a TS do in this environment
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Quoting WeatherStudent:
its almost mid-oct, guys; meaning, that 92l will not stay that far south for too much longer now. especially, taking into account, that according to ''ike's cold fronts'', that should be the prevailling factor that moves everything into the NW Carib.


Wow, it only took you 5 minutes to contradict yourself...how many voices are there in that head of yours?
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Will 92L do the same track as Cesar did in 1996?

img
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Quoting WeatherStudent:
its almost mid-oct, guys; meaning, that 92l will not stay that far south for too much longer now. especially, taking into account, that according to ''ike's cold fronts'', that should be the prevailling factor that moves everything into the NW Carib.


wont the cold fronts keep 92L south?
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8357


Plenty of Rain for me
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8357
92L 2km Storm Relative IR Imagery with BD Enhancement Curve





92L RAAMB page
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I have to chuckles , even the little swirl (ex-Henri)is against the NHC forecast track, now is moving completely NW, way north than the NHC,trops FCSP...projects,,,
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Quoting IKE:
SHIPS has it going into the east-PAC.


another Jimena scenario?
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8357
314. IKE
SHIPS has it going into the east-PAC.
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I don't think 92L will have any significant interaction with land(ie SA), probably cross over Trinidad & Tabago and thats it. I think it will continue to organize and become a significant system in a few days, jmo.
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Quoting weathermanwannabe:


The best articles are in the Journal of Atmospheric Science; most of the NHC folks, including Avila and a few other favorties, routinely contribute and write articles on these issues during their "off season"....


Yeah, they tend to write about some fascinating topics sometimes, really interesting
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8357
Feels like August down here again... 95.4 in the shade!
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Quoting tornadodude:


Yeah, it will be interesting to see if anyone writes about this, I would definitely be interested in reading it


The best articles are in the Journal of Atmospheric Science; most of the NHC folks, including Avila and a few other favorties, routinely contribute and write articles on these issues during their "off season"....
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I see we have 92L which will interact with land. The vigorous flow around the deep-layered ridge should keep 92L to the south.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30562
Quoting weathermanwannabe:


You make a great point and I was thinking the same thing...Basically pulsing in a pattern opposite of the usual D cycles....If one of "these" systems actually make hurricane status, I'm sure a few of the mets will try to write a journal article on this anomoly.


Yeah, it will be interesting to see if anyone writes about this, I would definitely be interested in reading it
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8357
The NHC initialized the 2PM SHIPS model with a postion for 92L of 9.8N 58.3W. Seems a little far south and west for me...

SHIPS keeps a WNW heading through 24 hours gaining 1.5 degrees latitude. If this whole track were shifted to initialize closer to the 11N 57.5W that I see currently, land interation wouldn't be nearly as much of a problem.

Current and future shear out to 120 hours is 15 knots or less (favorable)


18UTC SHIPS
Quoting tornadodude:


It is so weird how several of the systems this year have been doing the opposite of the D-max-D-min cycles


You make a great point and I was thinking the same thing...Basically pulsing in a pattern opposite of the usual D cycles....If one of "these" systems actually make hurricane status, I'm sure a few of the mets will try to write a journal article on this anomoly.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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