Henri nearly dead

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:38 PM GMT on October 08, 2009

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Tropical Depression Henri continues to suffer from high wind shear of 20 knots, and appears on its way to dissipation. Visible satellite loops show that the shear has exposed Henri's low level center to view, and this center has become less circular and not as well defined. Henri's heavy thunderstorms have been shrinking in areal coverage and intensity, and are displaced from the center--signs of a highly sheared tropical storm that has little time left to live.

All of the reliable global computer models show weakening and dissipation of Henri by Friday, due to high wind shear. Wind shear in the vicinity of Henri's remains is predicted to fall to the moderate range by Saturday, but at that time it appears that the storm will be moving over the Dominican Republic, which will disrupt whatever is left of the storm's circulation. Henri's remains may bring heavy rains of 2 - 4 inches the the Dominican Republic and Haiti Saturday through Monday. By Tuesday, the remains of Henri will likely be moving across Florida and/or Cuba and into the Gulf of Mexico, where we will need to watch the system for re-development.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Henri (top) and a new tropical wave we're watching (bottom). The tropical wave south of Henri, just off the coast of South America, has become disorganized.

Tropical wave south of Henri
A tropical wave south of Henri, just north of the coast of South America and a few hundred miles east-southeast of the southernmost Lesser Antilles Islands, has grown less organized since yesterday. Both the areal coverage and intensity of the heavy thunderstorm activity has decreased, and there are no signs of organization to the cloud pattern. This wave is under about 10 knots of wind shear, but is too close to the Equator to be able to take advantage of the Earth's spin to help it spin up into a tropical depression very quickly. Also, the wave may pull in some dry, stable air from South America as it scoots just north of the coast over the next few days. NHC is giving this disturbance a low (less than 30% chance) or developing into a tropical depression by Saturday. There are no computer models showing development of this system.


Figure 2. Tropical Storm Parma (left) and Typhoon Melor (right) on October 7, 2009. At the time, Melor was a Category 4 typhoon with 135 mph winds, and Parma was a tropical storm with 60 mph winds. The two storms were close enough together that they rotated around a common center counter-clockwise, in an interaction known as the Fujiwara Effect. This forced Parma to reverse course and pass over the Philippines from west to east, after the storm had already crossed the islands from east to west. Now that Melor is gone, Parma is crossing the Philippines once more from east to west. Image credit: NASA Earth Observatory.

Typhoon Melor
Typhoon Melor made landfall yesterday on Japan's Honshu Island south of Osaka as a Category 1 typhoon with 85 mph winds. The typhoon killed two people and caused some moderate damage to the coastal region of southern Japan where it came ashore.

In the Philippines, Tropical Depression Parma is making its third traverse over the Philippines' Luzon Island. is expected to dump up to six more inches of rain today over the already sodden portions of northern Luzon. The storm is being blamed for 22 deaths and millions in agricultural damage.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting weatherbro:
How can the remnents of Henri move into the GOM when there's a fairly potent cold front moving through Florida early next week(unless it pulls a naked Paloma stunt)?


Potent Cold Front Thru Florida? Whatchu' Talkin' Bout' Willis?
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Quoting tornadodude:


are you saying that there might be some "dense" people on here? :P


It appears someone will do well in meteorology, I see. What does the baroclinic vector always equal? That should answer your question. What is your take on both systems. I need a quick update before retiring. It is after 11:00 here.
By the way, with your new position, we expect some serious graphics coming from you.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27210
Quoting WeatherStudent:


i'm not majoring in meteorology, geeze.


LOL....perhaps consideration of yet another name change might be in order then, "WeatherStudent".
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Quoting Floodman:


There's a cool front moving in from the west and it's being crowded by a more "polar" front...we're looking for a pretty rough night here in DFW follwoed by considerably cooler temps...85 today and a forecast 65 for tomorrow
Lots & Lots & Lots of rain coming down pretty heavy in OK, SE Kansas and a large portin of Missouri also 3.75 inch hail just south of Childress TX
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I just walked outside with my hardhat on and there was actual condensation on my hat. It is THAT humid outside! Get us some cool air! LOL
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How can the remnents of Henri move into the GOM when there's a fairly potent cold front moving through Florida early next week(unless it pulls a naked Paloma stunt)?
Member Since: May 26, 2007 Posts: 47 Comments: 1393
394. xcool


Link

ecmwf
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
errr, 100 minutes
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We are dyin here in southwest florida. It was about 95 today, heat index around 102. This is October right?
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Quoting DDR:
OSUWXGUY
This will be the first invest to pass through the area since last year,it will be interesting,because of dirunal min. we may not get much rain tonight,tomorrow maybe be a different story though.


I'm assuming you've had a dry rainy season so far? Seems like the common theme this year down there. Hope the rain helps.
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380. That's what I'm wondering too. We got lots of rain from Gustav and Ike in Septemeber 2008. Now we're just getting general rains over a longer period. I'm thinking we'll have a wet winter, since it's looking more and more like a low-activity tropical year.

Btwntx, no worries man. 23 degrees is still a healthy drop in temp over 80 minutes.
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Quoting Floodman:


There's a cool front moving in from the west and it's being crowded by a more "polar" front...we're looking for a pretty rough night here in DFW follwoed by considerably cooler temps...85 today and a forecast 65 for tomorrow


Trades???
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Quoting Grothar:


What do you think has been lower today. The comments on the blog or the baroclinic pressure? Would this in any way equate to some as barotropic fluid? If you get this one, you are good. How are you all doing today?


are you saying that there might be some "dense" people on here? :P
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
yo dude whats up? im upset that fred and bill died along time ago but im still upset. my friend and i were laughing about it because the hurricanes had the names fred and bill!
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Quoting oracle28:
364.i just checked a observation in amarillo,tx and at 1:10 pm the temp was 72 degrees then the most recent was at 2:50 pm and temp now is 49 degrees wow 33 degree drop in 1 hr 40 minutes

72-49=33?


There's a cool front moving in from the west and it's being crowded by a more "polar" front...we're looking for a pretty rough night here in DFW follwoed by considerably cooler temps...85 today and a forecast 65 for tomorrow
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
364. even here in Freeport we've recorded temperature drops of ~25 deg F in one hour with frontal passage.
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Quoting tornadodude:


howdy Grothar


What do you think has been lower today. The comments on the blog or the baroclinic pressure? Would this in any way equate to some as barotropic fluid? If you get this one, you are good. How are you all doing today?
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27210
I am not sure I buy what the NHC has said about 92L, its clear looking at the visible loops and maps that about 90% of this wave will stay north of South America.
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Quoting oracle28:
One thing is for sure about this blog, you can sure tell what time the school kids get out of class.

That said, I have a question. IF (and I'm not downcasting, wishcasting, or baitcasting) there are no GOM storms to remove the heat from the GOM this fall, will that lead to a warmer GOM next year or is that an invalid assumption?

Or will it result in more general rain in SE US this winter AS OPPOSED to tropical storm/localized rains that come with landfalling storms along the gulf?


Funny. Earlier I was thinking along those lines when I'm looking at the next 2 storm systems to impact the eastern US.

With warmer waters from no storms, there is more evaporation/moisture available to these storm systems.

The current storm is a heavy rain maker only - thanks to only a very weak surface low.

The next one progged for late next week (if it materializes) could use the extra moisture (higher dewpoints and more unstable air) to fuel enhanced severe weather.

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Quoting Floodman:


Is that what that annoying buzzing sound was? Jargon...hmmmm
Hello, Floodman. That tropical wave approaching the Windwards has increased its convection and looks a bit more symmetric in the last few frames.
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376. xcool
Another wave is east of the Windward Islands now labeled 92L on the map below.This system is in a more favorable environment, so this could develop as well over the next couple of days.Our current feature is now the island of St Vincent as the system moves through


http://hurricanecity.com/
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting pearlandaggie:
LMAO @ 361. i already shamed you once...don't make me do it again! LOL


It's really too easy...I think I've been rather good, considering the comment about his curriculum
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
Quoting oracle28:
364.i just checked a observation in amarillo,tx and at 1:10 pm the temp was 72 degrees then the most recent was at 2:50 pm and temp now is 49 degrees wow 33 degree drop in 1 hr 40 minutes

72-49=33?


yea that math looked a little odd to me too lol
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Quoting Grothar:
Hey!!!


howdy Grothar
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
364.i just checked a observation in amarillo,tx and at 1:10 pm the temp was 72 degrees then the most recent was at 2:50 pm and temp now is 49 degrees wow 33 degree drop in 1 hr 40 minutes

72-49=33?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Hey!!!
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27210
WS you have mail, thanks
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
Quoting oracle28:
One thing is for sure about this blog, you can sure tell what time the school kids get out of class.

That said, I have a question. IF (and I'm not downcasting, wishcasting, or baitcasting) there are no GOM storms to remove the heat from the GOM this fall, will that lead to a warmer GOM next year or is that an invalid assumption?

Or will it result in more general rain in SE US this winter AS OPPOSED to tropical storm/localized rains that come with landfalling storms along the gulf?


One would assume that some mechanism or another will try to equalize though I can;t imagine that the temps would come down that far; look at 2004-2005 though. How many storms in 2004, and 2005 had record high SSTs...does someone have an answer for this?
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
Quoting hydrus:
In 1988-89 in S.W. Fl, out of 90 days of winter(roughly), 65 of those days were above 80 degrees and only 3 nights did it get below freezing. I was surfing in January without a wet suit , there really was no winter to speak of. most of the GOM was very warm that winter.


oh wow, that is so strange.
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
Quoting tornadodude:


right, and with so many troughs that have been coming down, I would expect the gulf to be fairly cool this winter, all depends on the pattern though
In 1988-89 in S.W. Fl, out of 90 days of winter(roughly), 65 of those days were above 80 degrees and only 3 nights did it get below freezing. I was surfing in January without a wet suit , there really was no winter to speak of. most of the GOM was very warm that winter.
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366. xcool
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
365. DDR
OSUWXGUY
This will be the first invest to pass through the area since last year,it will be interesting,because of dirunal min. we may not get much rain tonight,tomorrow maybe be a different story though.
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LMAO @ 361. i already shamed you once...don't make me do it again! LOL
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Quoting StormChaser81:
Post #352

Oh well Im leaving it along.



This reminds me of a wilma, but im pretty sure wilma was a lot more organized and a little bit north.


Wilma was all the way in the NW Caribbean, not sure how it would remind you of the strongest storm the Atlantic has ever seen
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Quoting tornadodude:


yeah, he was right about that one though, I was thinking of East Coast troughs, but either way it doesnt matter, he is just trying to start a "fight" and thinks he can appear smarter by using fancy jargon


Is that what that annoying buzzing sound was? Jargon...hmmmm
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
Post #352

Oh well Im leaving it along.



This reminds me of a wilma, but im pretty sure wilma was a lot more organized and a little bit north.
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Quoting WeatherStudent:


back off, viejo.


I would suggest you do the same...listen for once rather than run off at the mouth. You could learn if you'd just listen
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
Quoting hydrus:
That depends on how severe this winter is.


right, and with so many troughs that have been coming down, I would expect the gulf to be fairly cool this winter, all depends on the pattern though
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
Quoting oracle28:
One thing is for sure about this blog, you can sure tell what time the school kids get out of class.

That said, I have a question. IF (and I'm not downcasting, wishcasting, or baitcasting) there are no GOM storms to remove the heat from the GOM this fall, will that lead to a warmer GOM next year or is that an invalid assumption?

Or will it result in more general rain in SE US this winter AS OPPOSED to tropical storm/localized rains that come with landfalling storms along the gulf?
That depends on how severe this winter is.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
One thing is for sure about this blog, you can sure tell what time the school kids get out of class.

That said, I have a question. IF (and I'm not downcasting, wishcasting, or baitcasting) there are no GOM storms to remove the heat from the GOM this fall, will that lead to a warmer GOM next year or is that an invalid assumption?

Or will it result in more general rain in SE US this winter AS OPPOSED to tropical storm/localized rains that come with landfalling storms along the gulf?
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Still seems that most of the rotation seen in the satellite imagery is mid-level. The 500mb Vorticity is further northeast of the 850mb and more pronounced.

If the mid level center becomes dominant then the path will avoid SA more...if the 850 is dominant, 92L will likely hug the coast.

500mb Vorticity
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Quoting StormChaser81:


I know the type of classes your taking at purdue and they are a lot more creditable than the college he is attending. Purdue is in the top for Meteorology.


yeah, he was right about that one though, I was thinking of East Coast troughs, but either way it doesnt matter, he is just trying to start a "fight" and thinks he can appear smarter by using fancy jargon
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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