Henri being torn apart by shear
Tropical Storm Henri is getting ripped apart by wind shear, and is much less organized than it was early this morning. About 25 knots of wind shear continues to eat into storm, and visible satellite loops show that the shear has exposed Henri's low level center to view. Henri's heavy thunderstorms have been shrinking in areal coverage and intensity, and are steadily moving away from the center--all signs of a highly sheared tropical storm that has little time left to live.
All of the reliable global computer models show weakening and dissipation of Henri by Thursday, due to high wind shear. Wind shear in the vicinity of Henri's remains is predicted to fall to the moderate range by Saturday, so we will have to be concerned with regeneration after Henri dissipates. It appears likely that moisture from Henri will affect Puerto Rico by Friday night, the Dominican Republic on Saturday, and Haiti on Sunday. It is too early to tell if Henri's remains will be capable of causing flooding rains in these regions.
Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of Henri (top) and a new tropical wave we're watching (bottom). The tropical wave south of Henri, just off the coast of South America, has become more organized this afternoon. The thunderstorm activity has grown more concentrated near 8N 50W, with a hint of some low-level spiral banding starting to form. This wave is under about 10 knots of wind shear, but is too close to the Equator to be able to take advantage of the Earth's spin to help it spin up into a tropical depression very quickly. Also, the wave will suffer from interaction with the coast of South America on Thursday. NHC is giving this disturbance a low (less than 30% chance) or developing into a tropical depression by Friday.
Typhoon Melor
Typhoon Melor has made landfall on Japan's Honshu Island south of Osaka as a Category 1 typhoon with 85 mph winds. Hamamatsu reported sustained winds of 54 mph last hour, and tropical storm force wind gusts will be common along much of the south coast of Honshu as the typhoon passes. You can follow the landfall of Melor with our interactive wundermap for the region.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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BEEN DESTRUCTIVE
That is terrible news.
Yeah, I wish they would go back to using that format.
yeah... so sad
SO IF YOU ARE IN EQ COUNTRY PLEASE HAVE 2 WEEKS SUPPLIES
Tropical Disturbance Summary (2330z 07OCT)
===============================================
An area of convection (92W) located at 14.2N 143.6E or 80 NM north-northwest of Guam. Recent animated infrared imagery shows convective turning over a developing, yet broad, low level circulation center. A 1957z SSMIS Pass shows weak broken banding wrapping into two distinct centers associated with deep convection. A 2040z Quikscat Pass shows 20-25 knot unflagged winds along the eastern side of an elongated circulation center, which much weaker 10 knot winds on the western side. Water vapor imagery depicts a developing upper tropospheric trough cell to the north and upper level analysis reveals the system is in an area of minimal vertical wind shear.
Maximum sustained winds near the center is 15-20 knots with a minimum central pressure of 1003 MB. The potential for this disturbance to form into a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is UPGRADED TO FAIR.
depths running about 20 miles?
That's true. And how about areas of interest that have zero probability to develop within 48 hours.....but all the models and environmental features indicate a high probability of a signifigant cyclone forming 72-96 hours down the road. This currently gets no yellow, no nothing. Just the words in the TWO, as we've had for years. I prefer the words...do away, or tweak the idiot colors.
Magnitude 7.1
Date-Time
* Wednesday, October 07, 2009 at 23:13:49 UTC
* Thursday, October 08, 2009 at 10:13:49 AM at epicenter
Location 13.145°S, 166.297°E
Depth 33.3 km (20.7 miles)
Region VANUATU
Distances 275 km (170 miles) S of Lata, Santa Cruz Islands, Solomon Isl.
280 km (175 miles) NNW of Luganville, Espiritu Santo, Vanuatu
810 km (500 miles) ESE of HONIARA, Guadalcanal, Solomon Islands
2100 km (1310 miles) NE of BRISBANE, Queensland, Australia
Location Uncertainty horizontal +/- 15.1 km (9.4 miles); depth +/- 2.5 km (1.6 miles)
Parameters NST=215, Nph=218, Dmin=>999 km, Rmss=1.59 sec, Gp= 22°,
M-type=(unknown type), Version=6
Source
* USGS NEIC (WDCS-D)
Event ID us2009mlcs
actually latest one was only 15 miles down, but alot weaker. the stronger ones are at about 20 ues
Henri...."crawls north of the Caribbean islands as a remnant low."
Wave SE of it..."no signs of development. Rain to the Antilles on Friday."
(shakes head sadly)
You've been corrected regarding the month (Sept. not Oct.) but I can't agree with the northern Venezuela aspect, since Gilbert passed north of Barbados - some 250+ miles north of Venezuela on average (not counting is closest point just to the west of Trinidad which is around 200 miles) and even then its a BIG distance even in hurricane terms.
Gilbert was a Caribbean hurricane and had nothing much to do with Venezuela/South America, except may some waves/high seas.
Another wave is east of the Windward Islands in a more favorable environment, so this could develop as well over the next couple of days.
I'm sure other folks are way better at reading the info than I am. I'll go with your call.
and somehow it has deep convection once again
I want a quickscat pass already so my doubts about another LLC forming disappear :)
For Henri at 2PM yesterday, if we had no yellow circle then the outlook would say, some slow development is possible over the next day or two before upper winds increase over the system.
Henri develops 2 hours later and it would verify since they said some slow development is possible within the next day or two and it did.
Now, you put a yellow circle it becomes more exact and for 48 hrs thus a larger room for error.
y/m/d h:m:s LAT
deg LON
deg DEPTH
km Region
MAP 7.1 2009/10/07 23:13:49 -13.145 166.297 33.3 km VANUATU
MAP 3.0 2009/10/07 22:11:05 60.047 -140.626 0.5 SOUTHERN YUKON TERRITORY, CANADA
MAP 7.8 2009/10/07 22:03:16 -13.052 166.187 35.0 km VANUATU
MAP 6.7 2009/10/07 21:41:15 4.043 122.584 582.8 km CELEBES SEA
y/m/d h:m:s LAT
deg LON
deg DEPTH
km Region
MAP 7.1 2009/10/07 23:13:49 -13.145 166.297 33.3 km VANUATU
MAP 3.0 2009/10/07 22:11:05 60.047 -140.626 0.5 SOUTHERN YUKON TERRITORY, CANADA
MAP 7.8 2009/10/07 22:03:16 -13.052 166.187 35.0 km VANUATU
MAP 6.7 2009/10/07 21:41:15 4.043 122.584 582.8 km CELEBES SEA
haha, i just read them alot, i find them interesting. Im waiting for the next update
Thank you Downcaster Deluxe:)
Maybe the Mayans are right? 2012 pre-season warm up?
Your advice for EQ are the same for Hurricanes regarding supplies. Why so people are out looking for food, water, and gas two hours after landfall I'll never know. I can understand is the area is devastated and your lost your supplies - but this is generally NOT the case.
Henri dissipating would be good for the wave. Interesting scenario.
18.2 N 57.3 W , open wave OR the NHC position. Take your pick LOL.
My choice is the first
only diffference is no warning signs for a earthquake, hurricane you have days.
They left out the 7.3Mw quake at 22:18:43 check out the USGS site!!
Amazing...you may see me, but I won;t be seeing you...LOL
Magnitude 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
8.0 to 9.9 1 1 0 1 2 1 2 4 0 1
7.0 to 7.9 14 15 13 14 14 10 9 14 12 11
6.0 to 6.9 146 121 127 140 141 140 142 178 168 92
5.0 to 5.9 1344 1224 1201 1203 1515 1693 1712 2074 1768 1134
4.0 to 4.9 8008 7991 8541 8462 10888 13917 12838 12078 12291 5201
3.0 to 3.9 4827 6266 7068 7624 7932 9191 9990 9889 11735 2094
2.0 to 2.9 3765 4164 6419 7727 6316 4636 4027 3597 3860 2104
1.0 to 1.9 1026 944 1137 2506 1344 26 18 42 21 20
0.1 to 0.9 5 1 10 134 103 0 2 2 0 1
Total 22256 23534 27454 31419 31194 30478 29568 29685 * 31777 * 10684
Estimated
Deaths 231 21357 1685 33819 228802 82364 6605 712 88011 1364
LOL.
May I add we did have a quiet period earlier this year, which I thought was extremely unusual. Now we're paying for it!!
AN EARTHQUAKE HAS OCCURRED WITH THESE PRELIMINARY PARAMETERS
ORIGIN TIME - 2203Z 07 OCT 2009
COORDINATES - 13.0 SOUTH 166.3 EAST
DEPTH - 33 KM
LOCATION - VANUATU ISLANDS
MAGNITUDE - 8.0
EVALUATION
IT IS NOT KNOWN THAT A TSUNAMI WAS GENERATED. THIS WARNING IS BASED ONLY ON THE EARTHQUAKE EVALUATION. AN EARTHQUAKE OF THIS SIZE HAS THE POTENTIAL TO GENERATE A DESTRUCTIVE TSUNAMI AT CAN STRIKE COASTLINES NEAR THE EPICENTER WITHIN MINUTES AND MORE DISTANT COASTLINES WITHIN HOURS. AUTHORITIES SHOULD TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION IN RESPONSE TO THIS POSSIBILITY. THIS CENTER WILL MONITOR SEA LEVEL DATA FROM GAUGES NEAR THE EARTHQUAKE TO
DETERMINE IF A TSUNAMI WAS GENERATED AND ESTIMATE THE SEVERITY OF THE THREAT.
ESTIMATED INITIAL TSUNAMI WAVE ARRIVAL TIMES AT FORECAST POINTS WITHIN THE WARNING AND WATCH AREAS ARE GIVEN BELOW. ACTUAL ARRIVAL TIMES MAY DIFFER AND THE INITIAL WAVE MAY NOT BE THE LARGEST. A TSUNAMI IS A SERIES OF WAVES AND THE TIME BETWEEN SUCCESSIVE WAVES CAN BE FIVE MINUTES TO ONE HOUR.
FOR LOCATION COORDINATES AND FORECAST ARRIVAL TIME PLEASE CLICK ON THIS LINK:
Link
TSUHWX
HIZ001>003-005>009-012>014-016>021-023>026-080018-
/O.NEW.PHEB.TS.Y.0004.091007T2218Z-000000T0000Z/
TSUNAMI MESSAGE NUMBER 1
NWS PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER EWA BEACH HI
1218 PM HST WED OCT 07 2009
TO - CIVIL DEFENSE IN THE STATE OF HAWAII
SUBJECT - TSUNAMI ADVISORY
A TSUNAMI ADVISORY IS ISSUED FOR THE STATE OF HAWAII EFFECTIVE
AT 1217 PM HST.
AN EARTHQUAKE HAS OCCURRED WITH THESE PRELIMINARY PARAMETERS
ORIGIN TIME - 1203 PM HST 07 OCT 2009
COORDINATES - 13.0 SOUTH 166.3 EAST
LOCATION - VANUATU ISLANDS
MAGNITUDE - 8.0 MOMENT
EVALUATION
THE PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER HAS ISSUED AN EXPANDING
REGIONAL TSUNAMI WARNING AND WATCH FOR PARTS OF THE PACIFIC
LOCATED CLOSER TO THE EARTHQUAKE. AN EVALUATION OF THE PACIFIC
WIDE TSUNAMI THREAT IS UNDERWAY AND THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT
HAWAII COULD BE ELEVATED TO A WATCH OR WARNING STATUS.
IF TSUNAMI WAVES IMPACT HAWAII THEIR ESTIMATED EARLIEST ARRIVAL
TIME IS
0650 PM HST WED 07 OCT 2009
MESSAGES WILL BE ISSUED HOURLY OR SOONER AS CONDITIONS WARRANT.
...SP...
Howdy, Ike...you may be Downcaster Deluxe, but you;re here all the time...that sounds like a troll from where I sit. One comment that I've seen all season from this guy, and it's a "Tailgunner Joe" shot...
Magnitude vs. Ground Motion and Energy
Magnitude
Change Ground Motion Change
(Displacement) Energy
Change
1.0 10.0 times about 32 times
0.5 3.2 times about 5.5 times
0.3 2.0 times about 3 times
0.1 1.3 times about 1.4 times
yeah its crazy if you look i modified it, weve had only 1/3 of the earthquakes and if you look before it, it increases every year! its very interesting.
Amazing!!
I think I will go with the first one too XD
now the swirl that is Henri is swirling west still at 19.1 or .2 below its forecast points
although maybe the convection is still following Henri and somehow linked to the LLC xD
NewZealandHerald
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