Tropical Storm Henri forms

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 9:37 PM GMT on October 06, 2009

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The tropics spawned another October surprise today, when Tropical Storm Henri formed in the face of adverse levels of wind shear. Henri is under about 20 - 25 knots of wind shear, which ordinarily prevents rapid development like we witnessed this afternoon. However, the environment is quite moist, and Henri is over warm waters, 29°C. An ASCAT pass from 11:37am EDT showed Henri had winds of 40 mph. Satellite loops show that Henri has managed to rapidly develop a large area of intense thunderstorms with cold cloud tops in just a few hours, though the high shear is keeping any thunderstorms from developing on the west side of the center. Water vapor satellite images show that there is some dry air to Henri's northwest, and this dry air will act to slow Henri's growth some. The dry air is creating strong downdrafts that are apparent on visible satellite images as arcs of cumulus clouds spreading out from where the downdraft hits the ocean surface, along the northwest side of Henri's center.

None of the reliable global computer models showed Henri would develop, and the models all favor weakening and dissipation of Henri by Thursday, due to high wind shear of 20 - 25 knots. The official NHC forecast goes along with this scenario, but think there is a medium (30 - 50% chance) that Henri will not dissipate. By Friday, wind shear in the vicinity of Henri (or its remains) is predicted to fall to the low to moderate range. Even if Henri has dissipated by that point, regeneration into a tropical storm may occur. The track of Henri after Friday is problematic, as the storm will be in an area of weak steering currents. Several of the models favor a track to the west-southwest into the Caribbean, across Hispaniola. Residents of the Dominican Republic and Haiti should anticipate that Henri or its remains may bring flooding rains to Hispaniola by Saturday. It is also possible that Henri will get pulled northwards and recurved out to sea, and not affect the Caribbean at all, though.


Figure 1. Latest satellite image of Henri.

A little tropical weather for England
The remnant circulation of Tropical Storm Grace is currently making landfall in Southwest England. Grace's remains brought sustained winds of tropical storm force--41 mph--to one buoy off the coast last hour, and 38 mph to the Sevenstones Lightship buoy. you can track the progress of Grace via our wundermap for the region.


Figure 2. The remnant circulation of Tropical Storm Grace scoots by to the south of Ireland in this visible satellite image taken at 1pm EDT 10/06/09. Image credit: UK Met Office.

Jeff Masters


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Quoting Weather456:


Shear better do its job, the NHC can't anymore blows.

Did I miss something is Henri doing drag... or is the nekkid swirl going to come back?
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How is Henri going to be able to survive wind shear until Friday?
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Quoting JLPR:
most models keep Henri at TS strength for the next 5 days



The LGEM, the one good with intensity fluctuates Henri's intensity but does not dissipate it.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
103. JLPR
most models keep Henri at TS strength for the next 5 days

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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
What about the Cayman Islands and Jamaica ? Any chance there ?


The chances of Henri affecting that area is surprisingly high if it does make that southwest turn into the Caribbean, but I'm unsure of how far west it will go, 30-40%.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
100. JLPR
Quoting jurakantaino:
You were the first one that mention that CMC model capture this storm 2 or 3 days ago if I remember well.


nope I believe I commented with someone that noticed it =P
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Quoting Weather456:


I was thinking something today. There are so many people out there that don't like tropical storms yet they come to the blog where you must see some mentioned of tropical storm activity. I never understood that logic. For example, I hate politics so you would not find me on a political blog. I'm not a big fan of global warming thus you would not see on a GW blog.
The same reason I come here. Posters like Yourself, and Many others with clear and precise observations are an invaluable tool to evaluate Invests and Storms in the Tropics. Wanna talk about Global Warmimg and Poltics go to another site. Weather456 thanks for Your calculated observations in your blog they are a great help
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Quoting Weather456:
I picked out several locations and the respective probability of being affected by Henri

Puerto Rico - 20-30%
Hispaniola - 40-50%
Florida Keys/Florida - 30%
Cuba - 30-40%
Texas Coast - less than 5%
What about the Cayman Islands and Jamaica ? Any chance there ?
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Quoting Bordonaro:
I've got this "gut" feeling that shear is NOT going to kill TS Henri. She appears to be a fighter like Danny, Erika & Fred.

I'd keep a close eye on Henri, she may surprise everyone, warm SST's can do amazing things....shear or no shear...she has plenty of moist atmosphere to work with.


Shear better do its job, the NHC can't anymore blows.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
I've got this "gut" feeling that shear is NOT going to kill TS Henri. She appears to be a fighter like Danny, Erika & Fred.

I'd keep a close eye on Henri, she may surprise everyone, warm SST's can do amazing things....shear or no shear...she has plenty of moist atmosphere to work with.
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Quoting Weather456:


I was thinking something today. There are so many people out there that don't like tropical storms yet they come to the blog where you must see some mentioned of tropical storm activity. I never understood that logic. For example, I hate politics so you would not find me on a political blog. I'm not a big fan of global warming thus you would not see on a GW blog.


Hehe... I had the same though. I guess this is the place to go to release that anger towards tropical systems...
Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 5038
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Good evening...

I'm pretty glad to know that the only computer model with a pretty decent trend on 91L was CMC. Quite happy with the upgrade it received earlier this season and looking forward to its performance next year.

In regards Henri... I believe it will be a system that would be flip/flopping from a weak TS to TD as it makes its way through the S/W ATL Ocean... will be interesting to see how it will behave once the strong High builds on E/SE CONUS and slides E due to the approaching next strong shortwave.
Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 5038
Quoting jurakantaino:
Not me in the other side of the aisle in all those issue, a firm believer in GW, against most of the possitions of the right or far right , but i don't avoid their blogs, i argue with them using intelligent arguments and respect their views as I expect them to respect mine. By the way I love tropical weather systems not that I like the damage they cause; but I'm in love with the forces of nature.


same here
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
people go on talkin tropics plz
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Quoting JLPR:
wait im confused XD
I leave in the morning with 91L with a yellow circle and I come back now and we already have Henri?... WHAT? lol
You were the first one that mention that CMC model capture this storm 2 or 3 days ago if I remember well.
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Quoting Weather456:


I was thinking something today. There are so many people out there that don't like tropical storms yet they come to the blog where you must see some mentioned of tropical storm activity. I never understood that logic. For example, I hate politics so you would not find me on a political blog. I'm not a big fan of global warming thus you would not see on a GW blog.
Not me in the other side of the aisle in all those issue, a firm believer in GW, against most of the possitions of the right or far right , but i don't avoid their blogs, i argue with them using intelligent arguments and respect their views as I expect them to respect mine. By the way I love tropical weather systems not that I like the damage they cause; but I'm in love with the forces of nature.
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I picked out several locations and the respective probability of being affected by Henri

Puerto Rico - 20-30%
Hispaniola - 40-50%
Florida Keys/Florida - 30%
Cuba - 30-40%
Texas Coast - less than 5%
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Quoting CosmicEvents:

The whole color coded system is a pet peeve of mine.
Never liked it, never will.
This is a textbook example of why it's worthless.
The color code went from yellow to red then to Henri just like it was designed to do if you don't like that system i've got a better idea... the NHC posts nothing like before they had this and keeps you guessing. That to me would be worthless compared to the color codes used now IMO the info is great, if you have a better system go work for the NHC
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Quoting duajones78413:


I hate tropical storms because of the lives and damage they cause. I frequent this blog because of posters like yourself who help keep me informed in a way that I cant get from an advisory


In your case that's a good thing but it have those that just literally don't like people talking about storms and say things to either upset them or some cases "disappoint" them - tried to find another word so use it with care.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
dang flies in here...
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I am still curious to see the Quikscat pass this evening to see if there is a closed low with Henri.

With all that shear it would not surprise me to see the low open to the SW.
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15948
Henri has about a good of chance becoming a real player for the US as the carolina panthers making it to the superbowl. :)
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Quoting AtlantaMET:


He is right. Poeple do say things to rile up others and they know who to target. There are persons who love tropical weather that are attacked on here and I saw it first had last weekend with Weather456. He was attacked for pre-Grace and called a wishcaster with pre-91L now Henri. After seing this, it really open my eyes.


Perhaps he is, but 1 gloating comment would have sufficed. More than that is stirring.
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Quoting Weather456:


I was thinking something today. There are so many people out there that don't like tropical storms yet they come to the blog where you must see some mentioned of tropical storm activity. I never understood that logic. For example, I hate politics so you would not find me on a political blog. I'm not a big fan of global warming thus you would not see on a GW blog.


I hate tropical storms because of the lives and damage they cause. I frequent this blog because of posters like yourself who help keep me informed in a way that I cant get from an advisory
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Quoting Greyelf:
RE: #67



Um no not quite, just telling it like it is. I am sure about 95% of all people posting right now would agree with me
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On the Weather Channel yesterday Mike Seidel said duriing a Tropical Report that the disturbence would not develope, well as the late Ed McMahon would, or might have said, "You are WRONG Hurricane Breath!"
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Quoting Greyelf:

Yeah, I noticed that too..then I looked at the coordinates. That would be a little close for 2 systems. They must have been in a hurry to list it for the bloggers here.
91 and Henri are one in the same just didn't tale 91 off yet
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Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:


true people who are out to only antagonize instead of contribute will always find something else to gripe about


I was thinking something today. There are so many people out there that don't like tropical storms yet they come to the blog where you must see some mentioned of tropical storm activity. I never understood that logic. For example, I hate politics so you would not find me on a political blog. I'm not a big fan of global warming thus you would not see on a GW blog.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Quoting all4hurricanes:
wow this is like the season of short lived storms
Danny, Erika, Ana, and Fred all dealt with or died by wind shear. I have to say these storms this year are some of the most disappointing I've ever seen.


I sure hope this isnt gonna be a Fred. I still cringe when someone mentions that storm. Talk about dragging on and on and on and on. Ugh
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latest wv image tropical atl.
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Quoting CosmicEvents:

The whole color coded system is a pet peeve of mine.
Never liked it, never will.
This is a textbook example of why it's worthless.


So, as long as there are no colors and they just say "Low chance, less than 30%" it's all good? Only the color is the problem?

Sorry, just don't get what the issue is. Could just be me.
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Quoting CosmicEvents:

The whole color coded system is a pet peeve of mine.
Never liked it, never will.
This is a textbook example of why it's worthless.

I like it. the NHC is finally showing it isn't a machine and is putting in some opinion based graphics.. It's nothing official and if you don't want to know where the NHC thinks a TC might form then wait until you see a name or a TD designation. There's nothing that determines a color except forecaster opinion. Besides, a yellow circle was fine. An hour before it hit TS it looked like crap from everything we had ascat and satellite included.
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Quoting Cotillion:


You'll still have people decrying the lack of ACE though, despite Bill's trundle in the deep blue. (And it is very low.)

And for the supposed Grace track, by Wikipedia so of course, normal caveats of trustworthiness apply...



true people who are out to only antagonize instead of contribute will always find something else to gripe about
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Oh I can tell you why, cuz the people who come in here and call everyone a wishcaster and put there "this season will be quiet, no more storms this year" predictions out, are just doing it to get everyones' attention and very few of them have anything else to add. They do it to get attention like a misbehaving 4 year old. You also very rarely hear a peep out of them when its active.

So if you see someone make a bold statement with no facts, just ignore them
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Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:


yea but think about this crazy scenerio, but really possible

2 more named storms this month is without a doubt possible based on forecasts; that brings us to 10. Then add to that possibly 3 more unnamed storms in post-season analysis and we go from one of the most inactive seasons on record, to one that could have 12 or 13 storms officially


You'll still have people decrying the lack of ACE though, despite Bill's trundle in the deep blue. (And it is very low.)

And for the supposed Grace track, by Wikipedia so of course, normal caveats of trustworthiness apply...

Link
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Quoting JLPR:
wait im confused XD
I leave in the morning with 91L with a yellow circle and I come back now and we already have Henri?... WHAT? lol

The whole color coded system is a pet peeve of mine.
Never liked it, never will.
This is a textbook example of why it's worthless.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Weather456:


I'm thinking 90L and 92L are up for grabs, as for that NJ low, I'm not impressed. If we do get 2 this month, then 12 would actually be the number and as you said this could a good amount of cardiac arrests.



yea where are all the 6-4-1 or 6-2-2 people anyway?

Oh wait that's right, THEY ARENT HERE!! lol wonder why lmao
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Quoting Weather456:


Shear and the fact that global models dissipate Henri in about 3 days. I agree with shear but the global models never developed Henri in the 1st place and it did. he will battle shear over the next couple of days but beyond then, it is uncertain as to what he will do, the upper environment has been consistently forecasted to become favorable so if he can survive then development is still a possibility. We'll see how this plays out, but I'm not discounting anything.

Keep dreaming pal
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Quoting HurricaneSwirl:


it doesn't say anything about when grace was... it just says where ex-Grace is now.

Same thing to you 456, doesn't say when and where it formed, a pic of ireland just shows ex-Grace where it is now.

I haven't been keeping up with weather in the past week and wasn't sure where Grace came from. Both Bill and Danny looked like that in the same place and form but they did different things before then. I just wanted to catch up on what was going on because I don't remember there being a grace.


ok

Check out my blog from Saturday and Monday

Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
I like how the NHC tells us the correct way to pronounce Henri....and they're wrong. It's not ahn-ree....it's more like aaahhhnh-ree.
.
.
Like when the Doctor asks you to say ah....just add the slightest hint of an "n".
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59. JLPR
wait im confused XD
I leave in the morning with 91L with a yellow circle and I come back now and we already have Henri?... WHAT? lol
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Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:


yea but think about this crazy scenerio, but really possible

2 more named storms this month is without a doubt possible based on forecasts; that brings us to 10. Then add to that possibly 3 more unnamed storms in post-season analysis and we go from one of the most inactive seasons on record, to one that could have 12 or 13 storms officially


I'm thinking 90L and 92L are up for grabs, as for that NJ low, I'm not impressed. If we do get 2 this month, then 12 would actually be the number and as you said this could a good amount of cardiac arrests.

Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
heh Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Jakarta map shows "Melor" as a tropical depression

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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