Surprise tropical storm forms near the Azores; Invest 91L has potential to develop
Surprise! A 70-mph tropical storm popped up seemingly out of nowhere early this morning, in a region of the Atlantic not ordinarily prone to tropical storm formation. Tropical Storm Grace formed at 41.2° north latitude, in a remote ocean area near the Azores Islands. This is the farthest northeast an Atlantic tropical storm has ever formed since satellite observations began in the 1960s. Since 1960, only one tropical storm has formed farther north--Tropical Storm Alberto of 1988, which formed at 41.5°N, off the coast of Cape Cod, Massachusetts. Satellite imagery revealed that Grace formed an eyewall and well-defined eye this morning, though the storm's tropical storm-force winds did not extend out very far from the center. Last night, the center of Grace passed about 20 miles west of Ponta Delgada in the eastern Azores, which recorded sustained winds of 31 mph, gusting to 44 mph. Grace formed over chilly waters of about 23°C, well below the usual threshold of 26°C required for tropical storm formation. Grace's formation was aided by some very cold temperatures in the upper atmosphere (-54°C at 200 mb), which made the atmosphere more unstable than usual. The storm won't be around much longer, as Grace is already over much colder waters of 21°C, and is headed towards even colder waters.
Figure 1. The storm that would later become Tropical Storm Grace passes through the Azores Islands at 14:20 UTC 10/04/09. Image credit: NOAA/CIRA.
Invest 91
A large tropical wave near 12N 46W, about 1000 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands, is generating a considerable amount of heavy thunderstorm activity as it moves west-northwest at 15 mph. The wave is under low wind shear, 5 - 10 knots, and is over warm waters, 29°C, which is 3°C above the threshold typically needed to allow tropical storm formation. Last night's QuikSCAT pass showed a large and disorganized region of converging winds in the region, with top winds of 25 mph. There is very little dry air in the vicinity, and conditions appear favorable for some slow development of this wave. The wave is poorly organized at present, with no signs of a surface circulation visible on satellite imagery. None of the computer models develop the wave, but they do show relatively low wind shear along the wave's path for the next five days. The wave should continue to track west-northwest over the next 2 - 3 days, and spread heavy rain showers over the northern Lesser Antilles Islands by Wednesday. By Thursday, the trough of low pressure that is pulling 91L to the north should bypass the storm, allowing a high pressure ridge to build in and force 91L due west. NHC is giving 91L a low (less than 30% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday.
Figure 2. latest images of Invest 91L.
Pacific typhoons
In the Philippines, the cleanup continues from Tropical Storm Parma, which hit northern Luzon Island Saturday as a Category 1 typhoon. Parma continues to linger offshore the northern tip of the Philippines' Luzon Island, but its heavy rain is now offshore the Philippines. The storm has been blamed for the deaths of 16 people in the Philippines, but did not have the devastating impact that was earlier feared. Storm chaser James Reynolds took some dangerous looking video of Parma in the Philippines.
Super Typhoon Melor became the second Category 5 tropical cyclone of the year over the weekend, but has weakened slightly to a Category 4 super typhoon with 155 mph winds. Melor is expected to recurve to the northeast and pass within 200 miles of Tokyo, Japan, on Wednesday night or Thursday morning.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Don't let people on here affect you. Just so you know, I respect that you stick to your guns and speak your mind. You have become a very knowledgeable person when it comes to weather. People attack us only because they don't agree with our opinions, and in some cases, they maybe envious.
Im not whining lol, TWC is lol
anyway we have 91L which based on Pats loop is trying to get a spin going
CARIBBEAN SEA
AMZ089-052130-
SYNOPSIS FOR CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC FROM 07N TO 22N
BETWEEN 55W AND 65W
1130 AM EDT MON OCT 05 2009
.SYNOPSIS...A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 83W WILL MOVE W TO ALONG 86W
TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE GULF OF HONDURAS BY TUE. A TROUGH ALONG
66W N OF 16N WILL DISSIPATE SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA TUE. A TROPICAL
WAVE ALONG 58W WILL ENTER THE E CARIBBEAN TONIGHT AND PASS
THROUGH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TUE AND WED AND W CARIBBEAN THU
AND FRI. A THIRD TROPICAL ALONG 46W WILL REACH ALONG 55W TUE
WITH THE SOUTHERN SEGMENT MOVING THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN WED
THROUGH FRI WHILE THE N SEGMENT OF THE WAVE MOVES NW AS A TROUGH
WITH EMBEDDED LOW PRES THROUGH TROPICAL ATLC FORECAST AREA. LOW
IS NEAR 16N57W TUE...19N59W WED...20N63W THU AND MOVES NW OUT OF
AREA FRI.
AMZ088-052130-
SYNOPSIS FOR THE SW N ATLC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS
1130 AM EDT MON OCT 05 2009
.SYNOPSIS...TROUGH ALONG 67W S OF 22N WILL PASS E THROUGH
HISPANIOLA AND BECOME DIFFUSE ON WED. SOUTHERLY WINDS N OF THE
RIDGE ALONG 27N WILL INCREASE TUE IN ADVANCE OF A SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT PASSING OFFSHORE GEORGIA COAST BY WED MORNING. THE
FRONT STRENGTHENS WED AND REACHES FROM BERMUDA TO 29N81W THU
MORNING AND BECOMES DIFFUSE FRI MORNING FROM 27N65W TO 26N71W.
LOW PRES TROUGH WITH EMBEDDED 1012 MB LOW MOVES INTO SE WATERS
NEAR 21N66W FRI.
LOL.....just shaking head!
GUAM IR LOOP
I agree they have been inconsistent this season; we have had many borderline systems this year. To me 90L and 92L deserved a name and yes so did Danny and Erika, I dont buy 98L ever being named and I am on the fence about the NJ low.
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Wow that was clearly uncalled for, hope everyone flags your post
When you look at history, take Faith... yes it was the 1960s so we cannot be entirely sure, but that didn't lose tropical characteristics until just before or over the Faeroe Islands.
For those that are unsure of European geography, that's even further north of Scotland. This hasn't reached even the same latitude as the Cornish coast.
In other days, this may not have been named, yes. There is a lot of uncertainty of why this was called, I don't dispute. Perhaps other things should of been. But if this was named just by the coast of Maine, let's say - would it get the same derision? If it doesn't get absorbed by the front for whatever reason, and hits something, would it then be a good call?
This is rare, but not without historical parallel.
BBL
Eyewall Replacement Cycle:
Well said
Been noticing that throughout the morning. Not looking as symmetrical as it had been the past few days. Possibly starting to encounter somewhat cooler waters and some wind shear from the southwest in advance of the strong trough coming off China and over Japan. We've probably seen the strongest Melor will ever get. More than likely will begin gradual weakening in the coming days before becoming absorbed in the storm track coming across Japan.
Whether 'tis nobler in the mind to suffer
The slings and arrows of outrageous naming
Or to take arms against a sea of invests,
And by opposing end them?
I think you are right, but at the end of the day, Grace did meet the criteria for naming, so at the very least the NHC is being consistent for sticking to the criteria when deciding if something should be named.
If I may, I did a write-up a while back on unusual storms including Catarina and Faith. For thsoe interested:
Interesting facts and oddities about tropical cyclones you may have never heard
Thanks Dr. M and good day fellow bloggers. Peace and blessing to all!
All I have to say is, "Japan, get ready for a strong TY Melor to strike the Japanese Mainland NOW! It's Monday and Thursday's just around the corner".
TS Grace, well, it's small, it's cute and little threat to anyone. Besides that, NO COMMENT.
Invest 91L, hopefully it does NOT follow the model track through the W Caribbean, GOM, across Florida and up the Eastern Seaboard. Personally, I have a bad feeling about this system, and God, I hope I am wrong!
I got this email this morning and I am very excited!
Email:
Matt-
We're still working on this, so I can't promise anything,
but I expect that this will be a "permanent" position.
It will probably be in the 15-20 hr/week range,
with very flexible hours and the ability to work remotely
(assuming that the computers are working and that you
can log in from home or any remote location).
Here is the proposed job description for your information:
Job duties:
* Administer Forecast Game, including maintain web pages and scripts,
obtaining verification data, and handling player enrollment
* Maintain local installations of weather data analysis and visualization
software (including WXP, GEMPAK, and IDV)
* Develop software to display and administer data on hallway map display and
website
* Maintain Unidata LDM software for weather data ingest
* Work with faculty to ensure data sets are sufficient to meet instruction,
research, and engagement needs
* Provide support to users of data visualization software
* Work with department IT staff to ensure software and hardware remain
sufficient
You should worry when all the models develop a storm and you should also worry if none of them do.
91L is looking rather stormish this afternoon
haha what is the issue?
Busy figuring out GEMPAK and Unidata LDM...
not yet, but I'm pretty excited to start this, dont you think it will look good on a resume?
Very much so. And, all of those in-department part time jobs are terrific stepping stones to internships provided that the prof you would be reporting to is willing to write a letter of recommendation next year or the year after.
Maximize the opportunity...
well as much as he has been willing to help me with this, I'm sure he will be willing to write a letter of recommendation, as long as I earn it
MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
330 AM EDT MON OCT 05 2009
HIGH
PRES BUILDS W ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
THIS MORNING...MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON
THE MAGNITUDE OF SOUTHWARD PENETRATION OF THE FRONT. NOW THE GFS
AND ECMWF HANG THE FRONT OVER THE COASTAL AREA...AND KEEP
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST OVER THE WEEKEND. WILL TREND TOWARD
THIS RESULT...BUT CONFIDENCE IN ACTUAL SOLUTION IS LOW AT THIS
POINT. CERTAINLY THE MODELS DID NOT HANDLE THE LAST COUPLE OF
FRONTAL SYSTEMS ACCURATELY.
I think I killed the blog :/
So far, just one post on the old blog.
Probably trying to find a way to spin his story: Either Grace doesn't count, or he had it's forcast nailed down from the start.
True, but probably should have been sub tropical. yes, it deserves a name, but not as a TS, but as a STS
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