An Atlantic tropical wave worth watching

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:46 PM GMT on October 04, 2009

Share this Blog
2
+

A large tropical wave near 9N 40W, midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands, is generating a considerable amount of heavy thunderstorm activity as it moves west to west-northwest at 15 mph. The wave is under about 10 - 15 knots of wind shear, and this morning's QuikSCAT pass showed a large and disorganized region of converging winds in the region, with top winds of 25 mph. There is very little dry air in the vicinity, and conditions appear favorable for some slow development of this wave. None of the computer models develop the wave, but they do show relatively low wind shear along the wave's path for the next five days. The wave should reach the Lesser Antilles Islands by Wednesday.


Figure 1. The large tropical wave in the middle Atlantic.

In the Philippines, Tropical Storm Parma continues to linger offshore the northern tip of the Philippines' Luzon Island, bringing heavy rain. The storm has been blamed for the deaths of 17 people in the Philippines, but has not not had the devastating impact that was earlier feared. Parma's heaviest rains will stay offshore of the Philippines today (Figure 2).


Figure 2. Forecast rain amounts for Parma for the 24-hour period ending at 06 UTC October 5 (2am EDT Monday). This forecast is based on satellite measurements of Parma's current rainfall rate, plus a projection of the storm's path. Four to eight inches of rain (yellow colors) is expected along the extreme northwest tip of Luzon Island. Image credit: NOAA Satellite Services Division.

Super Typhoon Melor hits Cat 5 strength
Super Typhoon Melor has become the second Category 5 tropical cyclone of the year. Melor is expected to recurve to the north pass just south of the coast of Japan later this week.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 1189 - 1139

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24Blog Index

1189. TampaSpin
2:44 PM GMT on October 05, 2009
I can't find anywhere where Europe has Grace identified as a Tropical system. Has anyone else?

This graphic certainly does not show Tropical Storm force winds......
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
1188. Patrap
2:36 PM GMT on October 05, 2009
NEW BLOG folks..

Jeff Masters New Entry
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093
1187. BurnedAfterPosting
2:33 PM GMT on October 05, 2009
How about we just fire all the losers at the NHC and replace them with you wonderful people who obviously know more about the tropics than they do.

Geez grow up
1186. AwakeInMaryland
2:32 PM GMT on October 05, 2009
Quoting AussieStorm:

what size of wave did the USA get from the Samoan Tsunami?

From Hawaii247.org

"Hilo recorded a 0.5 foot rise in sea level, on top of about 3-4 foot waves."
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 32 Comments: 1918
1185. StormChaser81
2:31 PM GMT on October 05, 2009
Quoting AussieStorm:

what size of wave did the USA get from the Samoan Tsunami?


0.6 ft on the pacific coast of us and 1.6 in Hawaii.
Member Since: August 11, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2315
1184. TampaSpin
2:30 PM GMT on October 05, 2009
I guess NHC will now name the swirl at 41N 30W?
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
1183. 1900hurricane
2:30 PM GMT on October 05, 2009
Whatever Grace truly is, it sure is interesting.


Click on the image above to view a much larger image.
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 46 Comments: 11683
1182. RitaEvac
2:26 PM GMT on October 05, 2009
Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:
So we have Grace, well I always thought it would get a name so I have no issues with it


Again the Atlantic Basin covers a wide area and this is within that area; and its fully tropical

It is small, but looking at the loop; no question it deserved a name


Season is still over,
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9648
1181. RitaEvac
2:25 PM GMT on October 05, 2009
Think they're making up for when it was near the Canary Islands and had the eye
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9648
1180. homelesswanderer
2:24 PM GMT on October 05, 2009
Quoting ElConando:
Cmiss is down any other sites that show wind shear?


Link

Hope it helps. I still can't make heads or tails out of it. :)
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 10 Comments: 3665
1179. TampaSpin
2:22 PM GMT on October 05, 2009
Quoting clwstmchasr:
The Weather Channel really ripped the NHC for the naming of Grace. They almost treated it as a joke. They also pulled out the NHC manual for requirements of a tropical system to raise the question as to why.

I bet Joe B. will have fun with this one.


I almost have to agree with the Weather channel with this one.......LOOK at this graphic very close.....with Grace located at 43N 18W not only does this graphic show it could not be tropical with the Temp. but the Min. Central Pressure shows it could not qualify to be Tropical either........I guess they are stretching there values....

Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
1178. AussieStorm
2:19 PM GMT on October 05, 2009
Quoting Orcasystems:
I have not seen this posted yet... my apologies if its a repost.


what size of wave did the USA get from the Samoan Tsunami?
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15962
1177. HIEXPRESS
2:19 PM GMT on October 05, 2009
Quoting surfmom:
post 1153 - thanks HiExpress! ROTFL - more news to put in my worry basket...

I had know about this.... wonder how it would affect the Nuclear Energy Plant in Port. Lucie


GM Surfmom - really sweating that one, filing it just below *falling airplane propeller strike* :O
wu got mail
Member Since: October 13, 2005 Posts: 4 Comments: 2156
1176. BurnedAfterPosting
2:17 PM GMT on October 05, 2009
So we have Grace, well I always thought it would get a name so I have no issues with it


Again the Atlantic Basin covers a wide area and this is within that area; and its fully tropical

It is small, but looking at the loop; no question it deserved a name
1175. ElConando
2:12 PM GMT on October 05, 2009
Cmiss is down any other sites that show wind shear?
Member Since: September 6, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 3779
1174. homelesswanderer
2:10 PM GMT on October 05, 2009
MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
330 AM EDT MON OCT 05 2009

ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 42W S OF
15N WILL MOVE INTO THE TROPICAL N ATLC ZONE BY TUE. THIS WAVE
HAS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 150 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS
FROM 09N TO 16N AND THE 2344 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWS WINDS IN THE
20 TO 25 KT RANGE ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN QUARTER OF THE
WAVE. BUOY 41041 SAW WINDS IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE AND SEAS TO 8
FT AT 0300 UTC. THE MODELS SHOW SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM
AS IT APPROACHES A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE E OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES AND LIFTS NORTHWARD. THE FORECAST IS CLOSE TO
THE ECMWF...DEVELOPING A 1014 MB SURFACE LOW ALONG THE TROPICAL
WAVE BY TUE NIGHT NEAR 16N55W AND SPLINTERING THIS LOW OFF FROM
THE TROPICAL WAVE AND TRACKING IT NW...PASSING N OF PUERTO RICO
AND INTO THE SW N ATLC ZONE ON FRI. THE PARENT TROPICAL WAVE
WILL CONTINUE W INTO THE CARIBBEAN WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI.

Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 10 Comments: 3665
1173. pearlandaggie
2:10 PM GMT on October 05, 2009
1171. i'm not sure if this is the one you're talking about....

Member Since: September 14, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 3963
1172. 1900hurricane
2:09 PM GMT on October 05, 2009
This sure goes far back for a storm that was only recently named...


But really, why does the warning intensity go so far back???
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 46 Comments: 11683
1171. katroy
2:07 PM GMT on October 05, 2009
I'm hoping someone can point me in the direction of some satellite pictures I've seen posted here before.

They are of the entire world (or at least the half that's visible at any given time) - clearly taken from way out there. These images provide good perspective on the size of a particular storm.

Can someone please direct me to where I can find the Web site that hosts/publishes them?

Many thanks!
Member Since: August 28, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 10
1169. Bobbyweather
2:02 PM GMT on October 05, 2009
Grace is back to 55kt, and Best Track reveals that Grace was a tropical storm since October 4 12UTC

Link
Member Since: September 7, 2006 Posts: 90 Comments: 2669
1168. Bobbyweather
2:01 PM GMT on October 05, 2009
Grace almost=Marco, except Grace is stronger and slightly bigger.Grace also has a (now-almost cloud-filled) eye.
Member Since: September 7, 2006 Posts: 90 Comments: 2669
1167. homelesswanderer
1:57 PM GMT on October 05, 2009
Good Morning. Going to be an icky sticky week here...

Tuesday brings much warmer weather as the warm front moves away from the area bringing in higher humidity creating heat index readings as high as 102.

By time we get to the weekend this will feel like heaven...

Saturday: Cloudy with a 50% chance of rain showers. Low: 65. High: 78. Wind: NE 15mph.

Sunday: Mostly sunny. Low: 62. High: 79. Wind: E 10mph.

Lol. The NWS assures me that the end of the week cold front has a good chance of pushing through here. I hope so. :)
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 10 Comments: 3665
1166. Orcasystems
1:49 PM GMT on October 05, 2009
I have not seen this posted yet... my apologies if its a repost.

Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
1165. Cotillion
1:44 PM GMT on October 05, 2009
Believe it or not, Grace does 'look' better in the last few hours compared to last night when it was named.

It was named at... 11pm? So 4am over here. (3am GraceTime, anyhow.)



Just over the Azores.

Then fast forward a bit... To when it was named:





Midday today.

It may not have the tropical mechanics (It is waayyyyy out of its comfort zone after all.. it's not even in the subtropics.) but it certainly looks the part.. in Marco-dimensions, anyway. (Macro -> Micro -> Marco, you see.)

Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 5300
1164. Orcasystems
1:41 PM GMT on October 05, 2009

AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
1163. TheCaneWhisperer
1:35 PM GMT on October 05, 2009
Ships makes a cane out of 91L

SHIP 41KTS 48KTS 56KTS 69KTS
1162. Cotillion
1:35 PM GMT on October 05, 2009
Quoting 1900hurricane:
Melor appears to be undergoing another EWRC:


Nah, it's just cracking up over Grace as we said earlier.

It's working!

(That's what the NHC were doing in naming it.. Ahh, how holistic of them.)
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 5300
1161. Cotillion
1:34 PM GMT on October 05, 2009
Quoting IKE:
Orville Redenbacher...bag of popcorn into microwave...check.

Bottle of Pepsi...times 2....check.

Toothpicks to get rid of popcorn remains between teeth...check.

Drama on the blogs...check.

***Reading it....priceless***


For everything else, there's Mastercard.
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 5300
1160. IKE
1:32 PM GMT on October 05, 2009
Orville Redenbacher...bag of popcorn into microwave...check.

Bottle of Pepsi...times 2....check.

Toothpicks to get rid of popcorn remains between teeth...check.

Drama on the blogs...check.

***Reading it....priceless***
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
1159. surfmom
1:30 PM GMT on October 05, 2009
post 1153 - thanks HiExpress! ROTFL - more news to put in my worry basket...

I had know about this.... wonder how it would affect the Nuclear Energy Plant in Port. Lucie
Member Since: July 18, 2007 Posts: 30 Comments: 26536
1157. RitaEvac
1:27 PM GMT on October 05, 2009
Grace= Vort cane
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9648
1156. surfmom
1:26 PM GMT on October 05, 2009
Quoting litestar:
Palmbay Fla. Temp 79 Hum 80% Barom 29.934in wind S. Looks like another nice day in central Fl. A bit damp,but nice. This has been a strange year so far. Wondering what winter will be,cold or very cold? Any of you have any answers, about the cold part?


Sadly, very sadly --I'm thinking it's going to be a COLD one. (El Nino holds hands w/El Norte') Oak Trees are very heavy w/ nuts too BTW.

only good thing is we need a mass killing of all FLEAS - they're outta control with two years of light winter.
Member Since: July 18, 2007 Posts: 30 Comments: 26536
1155. HURAKAN5
1:25 PM GMT on October 05, 2009
05/1200 UTC 44.3N 17.1W T3.5/3.5 GRACE

For those not believing in Grace.

The NJ storm never got this kind of appreciation by Dvorak
1154. hurricane23
1:24 PM GMT on October 05, 2009
Shear seems to be disrupting any chance 91L has at obtaining a surface circulation. thunderstorm activity still looks broad and disorganized. Dont see any significant worries out of this one in the near term.
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13839
1153. HIEXPRESS
1:23 PM GMT on October 05, 2009
Experts size up Florida's tsunami risks

Grace on stage?
Member Since: October 13, 2005 Posts: 4 Comments: 2156
1152. litestar
1:22 PM GMT on October 05, 2009
Palmbay Fla. Temp 79 Hum 80% Barom 29.934in wind S. Looks like another nice day in central Fl. A bit damp,but nice. This has been a strange year so far. Wondering what winter will be,cold or very cold? Any of you have any answers, about the cold part?
1151. beell
1:22 PM GMT on October 05, 2009
91L still pretty much a mid-level thing- 14N 46W ?

Buoy 41040 14.5N 53.0W
Buoy 41041 14.4N 46.0W
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 144 Comments: 16879
1150. 1900hurricane
1:20 PM GMT on October 05, 2009
Melor appears to be undergoing another EWRC:



Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 46 Comments: 11683
1148. surfmom
1:08 PM GMT on October 05, 2009
Quoting Cotillion:
Tropical Storm Grace... is actually... Temperate Squall Grace...

Someone just got the TS initials wrong.

Came in looking for my morning *giggle*
Just got found it LOL!!
Member Since: July 18, 2007 Posts: 30 Comments: 26536
1144. lawntonlookers
12:51 PM GMT on October 05, 2009
Just checking on the tall ship Bounty and she is close to Grace, but isn't reporting any data.
Member Since: March 22, 2006 Posts: 9 Comments: 1570
1142. AussieStorm
12:49 PM GMT on October 05, 2009
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
its there alright right there next to nothing

yeah...lol
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15962
1141. SLU
12:47 PM GMT on October 05, 2009
536

WHXX01 KWBC 051230

CHGHUR

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

1230 UTC MON OCT 5 2009



DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.



ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR



DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL912009) 20091005 1200 UTC



...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...

091005 1200 091006 0000 091006 1200 091007 0000



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 11.7N 45.6W 13.1N 48.5W 14.5N 51.7W 15.9N 54.6W

BAMD 11.7N 45.6W 12.8N 48.2W 14.0N 50.9W 15.2N 53.3W

BAMM 11.7N 45.6W 12.8N 48.4W 13.9N 51.2W 15.0N 53.9W

LBAR 11.7N 45.6W 12.8N 48.3W 14.2N 51.2W 15.7N 53.9W

SHIP 25KTS 25KTS 28KTS 35KTS

DSHP 25KTS 25KTS 28KTS 35KTS



...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...

091007 1200 091008 1200 091009 1200 091010 1200



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 17.0N 57.2W 18.2N 61.1W 17.9N 64.5W 16.8N 68.3W

BAMD 16.3N 55.5W 18.2N 59.3W 18.1N 62.8W 16.2N 68.3W

BAMM 15.8N 56.1W 16.7N 60.1W 16.3N 64.0W 14.8N 69.3W

LBAR 17.3N 56.4W 20.5N 58.9W 22.3N 57.0W 21.0N 52.5W

SHIP 41KTS 48KTS 56KTS 69KTS

DSHP 41KTS 48KTS 56KTS 69KTS



...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 11.7N LONCUR = 45.6W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 14KT

LATM12 = 11.2N LONM12 = 42.9W DIRM12 = 280DEG SPDM12 = 14KT

LATM24 = 10.6N LONM24 = 39.6W

WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 25KT

CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 175NM SDEPTH = M

RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



$$

NNNN

a bit further south and west
Member Since: July 13, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 5356
1140. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
12:46 PM GMT on October 05, 2009
Quoting AussieStorm:

its there somewhere I am sure its there, maybe.
its there alright right there next to nothing
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 175 Comments: 54858
1139. AussieStorm
12:42 PM GMT on October 05, 2009
Quoting stormpetrol:

Is this a quikscat of Grace? Where is the circulation?

its there somewhere I am sure its there, maybe.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15962

Viewing: 1189 - 1139

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.