An Atlantic tropical wave worth watching

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:46 PM GMT on October 04, 2009

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A large tropical wave near 9N 40W, midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands, is generating a considerable amount of heavy thunderstorm activity as it moves west to west-northwest at 15 mph. The wave is under about 10 - 15 knots of wind shear, and this morning's QuikSCAT pass showed a large and disorganized region of converging winds in the region, with top winds of 25 mph. There is very little dry air in the vicinity, and conditions appear favorable for some slow development of this wave. None of the computer models develop the wave, but they do show relatively low wind shear along the wave's path for the next five days. The wave should reach the Lesser Antilles Islands by Wednesday.


Figure 1. The large tropical wave in the middle Atlantic.

In the Philippines, Tropical Storm Parma continues to linger offshore the northern tip of the Philippines' Luzon Island, bringing heavy rain. The storm has been blamed for the deaths of 17 people in the Philippines, but has not not had the devastating impact that was earlier feared. Parma's heaviest rains will stay offshore of the Philippines today (Figure 2).


Figure 2. Forecast rain amounts for Parma for the 24-hour period ending at 06 UTC October 5 (2am EDT Monday). This forecast is based on satellite measurements of Parma's current rainfall rate, plus a projection of the storm's path. Four to eight inches of rain (yellow colors) is expected along the extreme northwest tip of Luzon Island. Image credit: NOAA Satellite Services Division.

Super Typhoon Melor hits Cat 5 strength
Super Typhoon Melor has become the second Category 5 tropical cyclone of the year. Melor is expected to recurve to the north pass just south of the coast of Japan later this week.

Jeff Masters

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Storm...a possible center forming at 55 / 12?
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Quoting 789:
thank you ill use another sight for now califonia seems pretty active ! that is the best sight for everything at once


yeah, Cali has been quite active
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8201
Night all
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


If your premise were true, storms that go through ET would go from tropical to subtropical to extratropical. In most cases they go from tropical to extratropical with no designation of subtropical.


In one of the PDF presentation on cyclone types, it stated that cyclones occur on a spectrum so indeed they don't jump across the spectrum from extra tropical to tropical. They have to go through a transition (subtropical). Now, I agree that the NHC does go from extra tropical to tropical, no questions there. But in 2002, did not they started to name subtropical cyclones? So to only designate a system after it completely became tropical is not that an inconsistency in their naming policies. In addition, why name Jerry a subtropical system before it became tropical, why not name Jerry after it became fully tropical.

Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
883. 789
Quoting tornadodude:


hmm, it works for me
thank you ill use another sight for now califonia seems pretty active ! that is the best sight for everything at once
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882. JRRP
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NHC has updated the best track file on Grace to reflect a Tropical Storm since yesterday this morning at 12Z.

AL 09 2009100406 BEST 0 387N 295W 40 994 EX
AL 09 2009100412 BEST 0 383N 268W 45 993 TS
AL 09 2009100418 BEST 0 388N 239W 50 992 TS
AL 09 2009100418 BEST 0 388N 239W 50 992 TS
AL 09 2009100500 BEST 0 402N 213W 55 990 TS
AL 09 2009100500 BEST 0 402N 213W 55 990 TS
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Quoting 789:
tornadodude still watching earth quake disaster info, my rsoe edis sight keeps locking up,may be a pay only ?


hmm, it works for me
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8201
DATE LAT LON MAG DEPTH km REGION

05-OCT-2009 00:35:12 42.60 141.47 5.0 10.0 HOKKAIDO, JAPAN REGION
04-OCT-2009 22:06:01 -57.62 -25.35 4.9 35.0 SOUTH SANDWICH ISLANDS REGION
04-OCT-2009 21:50:50 31.76 49.68 5.2 10.0 WESTERN IRAN
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Quoting Weather456:


Funny how they did that.

a system cannot go from extra-tropical to tropical by separating from a front one time. The system has to go through a subtropical phase, after all, subtropical systems are the half way point. This system, 90L/Grace was subtropical before the NHC decided to name it Tropical Storm Grace. Therefore, I do not believe that an occluded front was there for as long as it was analyzed.

Examples - Vince, Delta, Epsilon and Jerry were all subtropical systems before they came tropical but only Vince, Epsilon were not tracked as subtropical storms operationally, we found out they were subtropical storms in their reports.


If your premise were true, storms that go through ET would go from tropical to subtropical to extratropical. In most cases they go from tropical to extratropical with no designation of subtropical.
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875. 789
tornadodude still watching earth quake disaster info, my rsoe edis sight keeps locking up,may be a pay only ?
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Quoting Weather456:


cool


Check mail now :)
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Quoting AllStar17:


Okay. I'll get it to you tomorrow (if I cant in a bit). I promise. I'll give you the basic image (without info.) and tell you the font I use to type in the info.


cool
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Quoting Weather456:


yea


Okay. I'll get it to you tomorrow (if I cant in a bit). I promise. I'll give you the basic image (without info.) and tell you the font I use to type in the info.
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Quoting P451:


Very good point.

Thank you.


G'Night all.


If you are still on...I would like to hear your opinion on the now.
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Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Your opinion, they gave their reasons for not naming it before in their discussion.


Funny how they did that.

a system cannot go from extra-tropical to tropical by separating from a front one time. The system has to go through a subtropical phase, after all, subtropical systems are the half way point. This system, 90L/Grace was subtropical before the NHC decided to name it Tropical Storm Grace. Therefore, I do not believe that an occluded front was there for as long as it was analyzed.

Examples - Vince, Delta, Epsilon and Jerry were all subtropical systems before they came tropical but only Vince, Epsilon were not tracked as subtropical storms operationally, we found out they were subtropical storms in their reports.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Quoting StormW:


Why does everyone think you need a freakin' degree? TS and Hurricanes don't care if you got a degree. That's the trouble...to many degrees going by what's in a textbook, instead of using common snese meteorology.


Based on the current forecasters at NHC, while you or I may not agree with it, that is the reality.
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865. 789
Quoting StormW:


Why does everyone think you need a freakin' degree? TS and Hurricanes don't care if you got a degree. That's the trouble...to many degrees going by what's in a textbook, instead of using common snese meteorology.
well said stormW ?
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Quoting P451:


Except, they make mistakes like anyone else. While they are the official word they continue to make bad calls and the post season analysis sometimes shows them owing up to as much.

This has been a particularly bad year in terms of what DO amount to TECHNICALITIES - yet all the same, it is of some importance to get it right.



Let it go P451...the post season analysis will prove you right or wrong. Focus on the now...not the past.
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863. beell
848.
You'd have to back that loop out about 500 miles or so to see it.
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Quoting AllStar17:


Would you still like a template for my graphics?


yea
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Quoting Weather456:


I think tornadodude made an excellent point earlier. Poeple have the right to question those in authority that is the way progression begins.



from earlier:
If everyone always accepted the professional opinions of organizations as fact, and never doubted them, then why even bother blogging on here? why bother debating political policies? (theyre professionals, they must be right) might as well take everything that my professors teach me and assume it is true and not ever bother doing any research to verify it. this is what drives America. When we founded this country, it was because we questioned the rule of our mother country and her policies. We did not accept it as "right," but instead we used our God-given intuition to determine what was the better way to govern. It is so important to keep an open mind and use the tools we have to research anything that we want. I do trust the NHC for the most part, but they make mistakes, as do I. Just because someone is in an authoritative position, we shouldnt automatically assume that they always make the right calls. Think about our elected officials- they are in a position of respect and authority, but we should not just take everything they do or say as fact. Read up on them, filter through various sources, research, etc.
Never assume.... we all know what that does.
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8201
Quoting P451:


Except, they make mistakes like anyone else. While they are the official word they continue to make bad calls and the post season analysis sometimes shows them owing up to as much.

This has been a particularly bad year in terms of what DO amount to TECHNICALITIES - yet all the same, it is of some importance to get it right.



Your opinion, they gave their reasons for not naming it before in their discussion.
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Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


It does not matter what NHC says, people have thier biases against them and will continue to bash them. They need to go to college for 6-8 yrs, get their Masters/PHD in meterology, work at TPC for a few years and then they can have the keys to naming systems.


I think tornadodude made an excellent point earlier. Poeple have the right to question those in authority that is the way progression begins.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 05 OCT 2009 Time : 024500 UTC
Lat : 41:07:04 N Lon : 20:22:43 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.5 / 994.0mb/ 55.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
3.5 3.5 3.5

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.0mb

Center Temp : -7.1C Cloud Region Temp : -24.4C

Scene Type : USER DEFINED INITIAL CLASSIFICATION
Maximum CURVED BAND with 0.32 ARC in MD GRAY
at Lat: 40:42:35 N Lon: 19:22:12 W

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

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856. beell
Well, like you said the other day, nrt. Long as they are consistent and stick to the rules.

And I also think they have done a fair job at that this year.
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Quoting Weather456:
Oh before I go,

a system cannot go from extra-tropical to tropical by separating from a front one time. The system has to go through a subtropical phase, after all, subtropical systems are the half way point. This system, 90L/Grace was subtropical before the NHC decided to name it Grace.

Examples - Vince, Delta, Epsilon and Jerry were all subtropical systems before they came tropical but only Vince, Epsilon were not tracked as subtropical storms operationally, we found out they were subtropical storms in their reports.


Would you still like a template for my graphics?
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If they should name it a Hurricane weather 456 I think it will be the first time ever in history that it goes from nothing to Hurricane.... with all this technology and satellites if I was working for the NHC I will give my resignation..LoL
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AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI
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Oh before I go,

a system cannot go from extra-tropical to tropical by separating from a front one time. The system has to go through a subtropical phase, after all, subtropical systems are the half way point. This system, 90L/Grace was subtropical before the NHC decided to name it Tropical Storm Grace. Therefore, I do not believe that an occluded front was there for as long as it was analyzed.

Examples - Vince, Delta, Epsilon and Jerry were all subtropical systems before they came tropical but only Vince, Epsilon were not tracked as subtropical storms operationally, we found out they were subtropical storms in their reports.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Vince, v.2
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Quoting beell:
PREVIOUSLY ASSOCIATED WITH AN
OCCLUDED FRONT AND CO-LOCATED WITH AN UPPER LOW...HAS SINCE LOST
ITS FRONTAL STRUCTURE


It does not matter what NHC says, people have thier biases against them and will continue to bash them. They need to go to college for 6-8 yrs, get their Masters/PHD in meterology, work at TPC for a few years and then they can have the keys to naming systems.
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845. beell
PREVIOUSLY ASSOCIATED WITH AN
OCCLUDED FRONT AND CO-LOCATED WITH AN UPPER LOW...HAS SINCE LOST
ITS FRONTAL STRUCTURE
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Quoting P451:


It did this four days ago to no avail.

Finally they name what should have been going on it's fifth day as a named system.

Vindication for those who have followed it, such as Weather456, of which tagged it as at the very least an STS days ago.

Why they refused to name it is beyond any logic anyone can offer - let alone even a shred of evidence to support not naming it.

Well, it's finally named, but it's almost a joke at this point in time.

This has been a season of highly questionable tactics and I would hope it turns out to be a year of learning for the future.

The post-season analysis is going to be as interesting as any given how many borderline systems we had - including those that were grossly over-classified (60 mph danny, 50mph erika, when neither was even close) as well as the well known 90 and 92 and to a lesser degree the NJ Hybrid (will still be interesting to read the final word on that as well).

What a strange year.
And I believe that system back in may that was in the Gulf of Mexico should have classified as a T.D.
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843. ackee
dont see TW makeing its way throught the carrb my thinking NE CARRB or just north of the ISLAND very early thow
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***Special*** Graphics Update:
TROPICAL STORM GRACE Storm Track -
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Sleep well.

They way you can tell proto-Henri is coming to TX is by the time he gets here TX will be swampy with all the recent rain which hasn't broken the drought but at least brought our florascape back.

TX droughts are ended by TX floods, and vice-versa.
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AOI/91/XL
MARK
12.8N/43.1W
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.