An Atlantic tropical wave worth watching

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:46 PM GMT on October 04, 2009

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A large tropical wave near 9N 40W, midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands, is generating a considerable amount of heavy thunderstorm activity as it moves west to west-northwest at 15 mph. The wave is under about 10 - 15 knots of wind shear, and this morning's QuikSCAT pass showed a large and disorganized region of converging winds in the region, with top winds of 25 mph. There is very little dry air in the vicinity, and conditions appear favorable for some slow development of this wave. None of the computer models develop the wave, but they do show relatively low wind shear along the wave's path for the next five days. The wave should reach the Lesser Antilles Islands by Wednesday.


Figure 1. The large tropical wave in the middle Atlantic.

In the Philippines, Tropical Storm Parma continues to linger offshore the northern tip of the Philippines' Luzon Island, bringing heavy rain. The storm has been blamed for the deaths of 17 people in the Philippines, but has not not had the devastating impact that was earlier feared. Parma's heaviest rains will stay offshore of the Philippines today (Figure 2).


Figure 2. Forecast rain amounts for Parma for the 24-hour period ending at 06 UTC October 5 (2am EDT Monday). This forecast is based on satellite measurements of Parma's current rainfall rate, plus a projection of the storm's path. Four to eight inches of rain (yellow colors) is expected along the extreme northwest tip of Luzon Island. Image credit: NOAA Satellite Services Division.

Super Typhoon Melor hits Cat 5 strength
Super Typhoon Melor has become the second Category 5 tropical cyclone of the year. Melor is expected to recurve to the north pass just south of the coast of Japan later this week.

Jeff Masters

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1089. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Philippines Atmospherical Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration

Typhoon Melor east of extreme northern Luzon has entered the Philippine Area Of Responsibility and is named "QUEDAN".

Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #1
=======================
At 5:00 p.m PhST, Typhoon Quedan (Melor) located at 19.5ºN 134.3ºE or 1,130 km east southeast of Basco, Batanes has 10 minute sustained winds of 210 km/h (110 kts) with gusts up to 250 km/h (135 kts).

Additional Information
===========================
This disturbance is still too far to affect any part of the country.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 PM today.
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Hello everyone! Posting from Okinawa Japan. Any change in Melor?
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Good Morning all

Tropical Invest 91L and Grace are born
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
1086. IKE
Latest GFS...6Z at 132 hours, has about the same path as the ECMWF on 91L...could be a good fightmaker on the blog if we could get all of the "season is over" people to join in, like tacoman....

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Good Morning, Ike
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Quoting WxLogic:


I believe "mother nature" wants EURO to have some additional excitement in their WX.


We do.. It's El Nino, and it's beginning to become windstorm season.

The Met Office doesn't say what'll happen after 24 hours, just totally drops it, there's not even anything specifically near it... nearest being a 988mb low just north of Scotland.

Ensemble says it passes right over us or close to us, so should be fun.
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I think GRACE is enterely a hurricane, as VINCE was...

We have updated our site, Cazatormentas.Net.
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Whats the comparative size between Melor and Grace??? Melor 10 times bigger?
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1081. IKE
CMC and ECMWF are similar on 91L on path and diminishing it as it goes through the Caribbean.
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91L will become hurricane.
Amazing convention
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1079. WxLogic
Quoting Cotillion:
Why is there a tropical storm outside my doorstep?


I believe "mother nature" wants EURO to have some additional excitement in their WX.
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Never thought I'd see the day.
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1077. WxLogic
Good morning for a short time...

Very interesting... to wake up to a Grace. In regards possible INVEST 91L... CMC solution is not out of the question since we've been having a pretty persistent/strong mid lvl high dominating the W ATL and Carib. Sea. Definitely bears watching. ECMWF has also being persistent with this feature as it takes it through the Greater Antilles as an open wave. Should be interesting to watch during the next 24 to 48hrs to see which model had a better handle on it.

Also + MJO approaching by next week so the W ATL and Carib... should start transitioning to a Neutral state later this week into early next week.
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Why is there a tropical storm outside my doorstep?
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1075. IKE
And we say Grace and we say Ma’am
And if you ain’t into that we don’t give a damn

Link
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Melor looks Annular or maybe transitioning into. it might be stronger than the prediction says.
Grace looks like she's strengthening maybe a hurricane? Also if she did would she beat Vince's record?
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Morning All-

I will be very interested to hear what 456 and Storm W. and others have to say about 91l today...

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1072. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
no kidding, Aussie

Typhoon Quedan (Melor) 65 m/s according to PAGASA
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Like WOW

Parma left, Melor Right.
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1070. Sooon
... but it does bear an eye...

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1069. Sooon
It is really a tiny little thing...

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Supertyphoon Melor is looking absolutely circular on the satellite now..
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Our comments on GRACE at a Spanish Weather Forum & Site.

Thank you :)
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Quoting CatFiveLove:


Whats your profile photo--chow young fat cat4/5 borderline from west pacific...sorry forget the name


lol yeah he was one big fat cat. Him and Melor. Best looking storms of 2009.
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I would say GRACE has been a hurricane, as VINCE was. It has showed an eye few hours ago!
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I'll go with the ECMWF. I say 91L will be nothing more than an open wave and shear will keep it in check until it finally meets it's death. Pretty much the story of 2009.
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Quoting markymark1973:
Yes by all means please ignore :)


Whats your profile photo--chow young fat cat4/5 borderline from west pacific...sorry forget the name
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Quoting btwntx08:
well see whats happens i say that it will develop and probably be the last for the season but will see


Both of us have equal chances of correct.

I say a stalled cold front off of NA will be our last named storm
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1060. funeeeg
Grace is here!! I bet no one was expecting that especially since it is over 21 celcius SST and has under fairly moderate shear. It is a mini TS with an eye....
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Yes by all means please ignore :)
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Oh, my God !!! GRACE is here, in our 90L !!!! LOL !!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Good morning all from Spain :)
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20 knts doesnt kill more organized storms--something with more centralized circulation--but, this season has shown me more opportunity for development than this thing, and the borderline shear like you said is 'yellow' in my book...that shear can vent its outflow, but i am more on the thought its vorticity will linger until things get more conducive
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tx08--agreed-- NHC is not the NHC for no reason at all...but, possible orange to yellow would be my second bet
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Quoting markymark1973:
Some decent shear in 91Ls path. Probably why none of the models are too crazy about this system. ECMWF has it turning into an open wave. It is the 2009 hurricane season after all. The year of disturbances going POOF just when they look like they might start cranking up.


"year of the disturbances going poop" agreed
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Some decent shear in 91Ls path. Probably why none of the models are too crazy about this system. ECMWF has it turning into an open wave. It is the 2009 hurricane season after all. The year of disturbances going POOF just when they look like they might start cranking up.
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1049. JLPR
what am I doing up, no idea XD
but 91L is looking good although convection still hasnt consolidated, several blobs of convection there



now im off to hit my head with a bat, then maybe I will finally be able to sleep lol
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shear over antilles--with winds out of east--looks like head chopping material

correction east=west



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Quoting tornadodude:
From 2006-

Isn't that Cyclone Hamish???
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Quoting archer312:


Glad to see it's Raining somewhere in AU,
I have heard it's a Terrible Drought down there, AussieStorm. Hope you get some more rain soon. Those huge dust storms I hear about look to be awful. I have a good friend up in Darwin NT, and some long lost relatives in Melbourne. At least the Cyclones have been clear of AU this year, right? Good Luck to our Australian pals from us "Yanks". W in Florida.

Our Cyclone season starts November 1 till March 30.
Took a fair few pics of the storm as it was approaching they will be up in my blog soon.
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Quoting CatFiveLove:
91 L looks good for now, but NHC is notorious for waiting...that thing has alot of things to overcome--even massive blocking from North America, which keeps us all safe for now
What about the Antillies and Carribean?
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91 L looks good for now, but NHC is notorious for waiting...that thing has alot of things to overcome--even massive blocking from North America, which keeps us all safe for now
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As much as I respect the NHC, 91L lools like at least an orange. Ive seen them use orange and red on worst looking systems!! Oh well!
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WS--- think so?
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moderate shear, with trouble ahead


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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.