An Atlantic tropical wave worth watching

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:46 PM GMT on October 04, 2009

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A large tropical wave near 9N 40W, midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands, is generating a considerable amount of heavy thunderstorm activity as it moves west to west-northwest at 15 mph. The wave is under about 10 - 15 knots of wind shear, and this morning's QuikSCAT pass showed a large and disorganized region of converging winds in the region, with top winds of 25 mph. There is very little dry air in the vicinity, and conditions appear favorable for some slow development of this wave. None of the computer models develop the wave, but they do show relatively low wind shear along the wave's path for the next five days. The wave should reach the Lesser Antilles Islands by Wednesday.


Figure 1. The large tropical wave in the middle Atlantic.

In the Philippines, Tropical Storm Parma continues to linger offshore the northern tip of the Philippines' Luzon Island, bringing heavy rain. The storm has been blamed for the deaths of 17 people in the Philippines, but has not not had the devastating impact that was earlier feared. Parma's heaviest rains will stay offshore of the Philippines today (Figure 2).


Figure 2. Forecast rain amounts for Parma for the 24-hour period ending at 06 UTC October 5 (2am EDT Monday). This forecast is based on satellite measurements of Parma's current rainfall rate, plus a projection of the storm's path. Four to eight inches of rain (yellow colors) is expected along the extreme northwest tip of Luzon Island. Image credit: NOAA Satellite Services Division.

Super Typhoon Melor hits Cat 5 strength
Super Typhoon Melor has become the second Category 5 tropical cyclone of the year. Melor is expected to recurve to the north pass just south of the coast of Japan later this week.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting PensacolaDoug:



It's a minor talent....

Still dumping rain ATM.


ha yeah,

how much rain have you had?
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Quoting ElConando:


Got it, to anyone, including you CCHS, how is MJO and NAO panning out for this week and the next?


According to the CFS model (which I have found more reliable with MJO forecasting than the GFS), the downward MJO pulse would continue about another week before a more upward pulse arrives for mid to late October which would make it more favorable for convection to develop.
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12z CMC has backed off on development with the central atlantic wave which to me looks a bit more realistic. no break thus far this season from those strong westerlies down there.
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Repost

Pretty much everyone from the Lesser Antilles to the GOM should watch this one. This is the reason why low shear will take over through 5 days, regardless if where the wave goes.

200 mb winds - 120 hrs

Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Anyone got the "Weekender" section from the Friday Pensacola Paper?
Write-up about my band on page 8.
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
with that the chance for dev increases as well keep yer head up and yer eyes wide open


Before I become concerned, I want to see this situation portrayed by the computer models actually evolve. For right now, the computer models are just showing that there could be favorable conditions in the coming week, but as well all know, this is not a guarantee.
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Quoting tornadodude:


impressive!



It's a minor talent....

Still dumping rain ATM.
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Quoting cchsweatherman:


Yes. According to pretty much all the computer models, there will be a strong trough moving across the northern half of the United States in the coming days. As this happens, it will cause a deep-layered high pressure ridge to form over the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico. As this ridge forms, the current hostile wind shear over the Caribbean will lift north over the SE United States reducing shear across the Caribbean and Gulf significantly.


Got it, to anyone, including you CCHS, how is MJO and NAO panning out for this week and the next?
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Quoting cchsweatherman:


Yes. According to pretty much all the computer models, there will be a strong trough moving across the northern half of the United States in the coming days. As this happens, it will cause a deep-layered high pressure ridge to form over the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico. As this ridge forms, the current hostile wind shear over the Caribbean will lift north over the SE United States reducing shear across the Caribbean and Gulf significantly.
with that the chance for dev increases as well keep yer head up and yer eyes wide open
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Is that ex-90L over the Azores?
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Quoting ElConando:
Been reading the blog, so, the Caribbean may have low shear 3-4 days from now? Is that what is the case?


Yes. According to pretty much all the computer models, there will be a strong trough moving across the northern half of the United States in the coming days. As this happens, it will cause a deep-layered high pressure ridge to form over the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico. As this ridge forms, the current hostile wind shear over the Caribbean will lift north over the SE United States reducing shear across the Caribbean and Gulf significantly.
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Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Three hyphens in one sentence. That may be a first for me!


impressive!
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The recess Bell Just rang..LOL




Atlantic Ocean View (Updated ~3 hours)






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Quoting Weather456:
Tropical wave to reach the Islands later this week; Melor becomes a category 5

Thanks.
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Quoting hurricaneseason2006:


Maybe that's why you are the target of cyber bulling, you don't keep your place.


cyber bulling, right...?
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Pouring on Pensacola westside right now.
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Three hypens in one sentence. That may be a first for me!
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Tropical wave to reach the Islands later this week; Melor becomes a category 5
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Here come the self-appointed blog police with their over-inflated sense of self-importance.
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Been reading the blog, so, the Caribbean may have low shear 3-4 days from now? Is that what is the case?
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As the conversation heads downhill.....

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1. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS DECREASED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 1100 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS. HOWEVER...SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS
STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OR
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS
THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.



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Quoting Hurricane009:
Still Quiet. There is a wave worth watching out in the central/eastern atlantic though.


ah ok, well I guess we will wait to see what happens
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Quoting hurricaneseason2006:


I suggest you keep out of this. This does not concern you.


well then why dont you WU-mail your comments to whom it may concern?
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Quoting tornadodude:


yeah, fun tho

yeah, I had a WU-mail, thanks tho (:

how are the tropics doing today?
Still Quiet. There is a wave worth watching out in the central/eastern atlantic though.
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Quoting tornadodude:


that had nothing to do with the point cchsweatherman was making


I suggest you keep out of this. This does not concern you.
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Quoting WeatherStudent:


Awesome, man. Ours is during the second week of Nov.

The only time you're on the FIU campus is when the Dade County Youth Fair is going on in March
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110. JRRP
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS DECREASED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 1100 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS. HOWEVER...SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS
STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OR
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS
THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
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109. xcool
oh boy here we go with drama.
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Quoting hurricaneseason2006:


He is not trying to seek any respect from anyone becuz WS is Drak and Drak is WS, basically. The two are the same persons, one is just an alter ego of the next.


that had nothing to do with the point cchsweatherman was making
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107. xcool
Who's Ready for Some Football?
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Quoting cchsweatherman:


He's just showing some observations he has made with the computer models and presenting it to people. There's nothing wrong with that and quite frankly, troughs play a major role in weather forecasting, so its not a fuss at all.

What is a big fuss is how you're hounding people on the blog about this tropical wave in the Central Atlantic and getting all worried about it when its pretty much nothing right now.

For someone who seeks to earn respect from other bloggers on here, you're doing a terrible job. Seems like all the advice I have given you and all the patience I have had for you has all been for naught as you continue to carry the same pesky attitude and imagined dominance over the blogs.


He is not trying to seek any respect from anyone becuz WS is Drak and Drak is WS, basically. The two are the same persons, one is just an alter ego of the next.
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Quoting Ameister12:
Good Afternoon!


And a good afternoon to you too (:
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Quoting WeatherStudent:


Ike, please stop stating the obvious, which everyone already knows about. What is so astounding about getting throughs in Oct? It's a common norm, isn't it? Therefore, why make such a big fuss about them? Geeze, :).


He's just showing some observations he has made with the computer models and presenting it to people. There's nothing wrong with that and quite frankly, troughs play a major role in weather forecasting, so its not a fuss at all. Not only that, but for potential future forecasters like myself and several others here, and for forecasters like StormW, it gives us an alert just in case we haven't had the time to analyze the computer models for ourselves.

What is a big fuss is how you're hounding people on the blog about this tropical wave in the Central Atlantic and getting all worried about it when its pretty much nothing right now.

For someone who seeks to earn respect from other bloggers on here, you're doing a terrible job. Seems like all the advice I have given you and all the patience I have had for you has all been for naught as you continue to carry the same pesky attitude and imagined dominance over the blogs.
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103. xcool
Weather456 haha
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Quoting tornadodude:
Good afternoon guys,

Been busy all weekend with homecoming


Awesome, man. Ours is during the second week of Nov.
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Good Afternoon!
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Quoting xcool:
tornadodude .yeah me too


yeah, fun tho
Quoting Hurricane009:
Hey tornadodude. You missed Grothar last night.


yeah, I had a WU-mail, thanks tho (:

how are the tropics doing today?
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I guess when the tropics heat so does the blog. :)
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Quoting tornadodude:
Good afternoon guys,

Been busy all weekend with homecoming
Hey tornadodude. You missed Grothar last night.
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tornadodude .yeah me too
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Quoting WeatherStudent:


Ike, please stop stating the obvious, which everyone already knows about. What is so astounding about getting throughs in Oct? It's a common norm, isn't it? Therefore, why make such a big fuss about them? Geeze, :).
Are you ok??? NOt on any pills??? He was just stating something that he wanted everybody to know. What is so wrong about that??
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Good afternoon guys,

Been busy all weekend with homecoming
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Quoting IKE:
12Z CMC


Big trough in the east on the 12Z NOGAPS.


Ike, please stop stating the obvious, which everyone already knows about. What is so astounding about getting throughs in Oct? It's a common norm, isn't it? Therefore, why make such a big fuss about them? Geeze, :).
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Quoting StormW:


I have no idea at the moment...won't know until I do analysis tomorrow...see where things are gonna be and when.


I'll be looking forward to it, thanks.
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89. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting lawntonlookers:
Thanks for the update Dr. Masters

Could someone that is familiar with CloudSat go the link below and check out the image 18273FL and see if that is a pass through part of Melar. I think it is but just want another opinion.

CLOUDSAT


Good catch especially without modis on that pass..Down the left sida. Here's that pass with mtsat for perspective..
http://www.latimes.com/news/local/la-me-alpaca24-2009sep24,0,877168.story width=550>
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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